Martin Armstrong Discussion

[r0ach]

DOW will go to 38,000+.

I have explained the Martin's Armstrong thesis numerous times (which is proving to be correct!), but you seem to ignore it and repeat the same nonsense misinterpretation over and over again.

The dollar and USA stocks are headed higher until the peak sometime in 2018, not because of Trump's stimulus, but because of the short dollar vortex which is sending all the international capital flowing into the dollar. Trump is just a kickstarter to accelerate that vortex.

This is where it's easy to tell Armstrong is nothing but a shill.  A rapidly valuing dollar would cause all other economies and banks to implode because they can't service debts.  If that alone doesn't bring the whole system down from default tsunami, their banks would become insolvent and have bank runs, triggering huge demand and surge in metals prices world wide.  The metals will then all be arbed out of the US completely; but is the US govt going to ship all of it's metals to China and other countries at rock bottom prices when it's already running an unstable 100:1 or more fractional metals market? lol no.

The one thing FOFOA is right about (but not much else) is that when the "flow" of metals stops, that's when the game is over and reset occurs.  If the price of gold is $2000 USD in China and $1000 in the US but nobody in China can actually buy that gold, we already know the Chinese do not want tbills, and they will demand gold for exchange of goods at ports instead.  That's when revaluation has to occur and an overnight Bretton Woods gigantic surge in metals price happens.

The spread in metals prices is the key sign of reset, and it's currently giant and getting bigger ($2 spread for silver? haha).  This shill Armstrong wants us to believe that everyone walking the planet is an idiot (and people who are rich are supposed to not be idiots) and that when they see bank runs in their country, they are all going to invest solely in worthless USD toilet paper instead of metals.  NOT gonna happen.

They all know the US economy is a house of cards just like theirs and there's no point in doing that besides short term speculation.  People with gigantic sums of money do not bet it all on short term speculation, they put the majority into the "sure thing" which is not USD.  The US govt even talks about freezing money from foreign countries every week from places like the Saudis and Iran.  NOBODY wants their money trapped in this prison here, which is why you will see the metals spread continue to increase until forced revaluation.

The #1 goal in deflationary collapse isn't to go all in on USD, that's a joke.  The goal in deflationary collapse is to get rid of all counter party risk because the value of an asset issued by an insolvent institution is zero.  You can't ban cash to force people into USD when people already know the emperor has no clothes.  Again, all of Armstrong's assumptions presume everyone in the market is a fucking idiot.

Armstrong and Harry Dent's goal seems to be to keep as many people out of the metals market as possible for when they do their surprise new Bretton Woods revaluation of gold to $20,000 overnight that can happen at any random time (which will also have technical traders send silver to the moon along with it - you can't revalue gold in a vacuum without affecting any other commodity unlike what these FOFOA fools claim).

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[iamnotback]

DOW will go to 38,000+.

I have explained the Martin's Armstrong thesis numerous times (which is proving to be correct!), but you seem to ignore it and repeat the same nonsense misinterpretation over and over again.

The dollar and USA stocks are headed higher until the peak sometime in 2018, not because of Trump's stimulus, but because of the short dollar vortex which is sending all the international capital flowing into the dollar. Trump is just a kickstarter to accelerate that vortex.

This is where it's easy to tell Armstrong is nothing but a shill.  A rapidly valuing dollar would cause all other economies and banks to implode because they can't service debts.  If that alone doesn't bring the whole system down from default tsunami, their banks would become insolvent and have bank runs, triggering huge demand and surge in metals prices world wide.

Your mistake is that you don't factor in that such a process is not instantaneous, and first what we get a stampede of international capital into the dollar and the effects Armstrong has correctly predicted and will continue to be correct. And you will be wrong with pie on your face.

After 2018ish, when the short-dollar vortex has peaked, then you will later be correct, but before missing the train in the meantime while precious metals implode, dollar up, and USA stocks up.

You are a closed-minded tinfoil hat idiot demagogue who hates Jews because they are superior in planning and understanding social organization. And you will also end up being wrong about crypto-currency when I release my whitepaper.

Sorry r0ach. Your facepalms will accumulate from here forward...

(I will stop messaging you, because you've gone full tinfoil hat retard)

[iamnotback]

Armstrong is correct that the Western schools are destroying the Millennials:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/how-professors-are-engaging-in-undermining-the-country-in-collages/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hatred-of-the-left-continues-to-set-stage-for-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/why-the-left-government-are-the-greatest-threats-to-the-domestic-life/

Here is an example:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703293.msg17225030#msg17225030

[r0ach]

you've gone full tinfoil hat retard

The only people who have gone full tinfoil hat are the ones who overlook the fact that Armstrong CONVENIENTLY leaves out the possibility of a new overnight Bretton Woods revaluation occurring when it's actually the #1 most plausible thing since it has precedent.  Where do "capital flows" fit into that equation of a non-aggregate market black swan revaluation?  Answer:  They don't.

Bankers start wars and do black swan revals to make everything happen on their terms.  They don't let market play out organically ever, which is why Armstrong data is useless.  You can only be one of two things:  an outsider or insider.  Which means Armstrong is either an outsider giving us bogus information or an insider giving us bogus information.

TLDR:

Data analysis of a rigged, non-aggregate market is useless

[deisik]

you've gone full tinfoil hat retard

The only people who have gone full tinfoil hat are the ones who overlook the fact that Armstrong CONVENIENTLY leaves out the possibility of a new overnight Bretton Woods revaluation occurring when it's actually the #1 most plausible thing since it has precedent.  Where do "capital flows" fit into that equation of a non-aggregate market black swan revaluation?  Answer:  They don't.

Bankers start wars and do black swan revals to make everything happen on their terms.  They don't let market play out organically ever, which is why Armstrong data is useless. You can only be one of two things:  an outsider or insider.  Which means Armstrong is either an outsider giving us bogus information or an insider giving us bogus information

That's what I'm basically telling wannabe traders here myself

But they don't seem to care until they start losing heavily. If over 90% of all traders are losing in the long run, anyone with eyes and a half functioning brain would see that something is very wrong with the markets internally. The point is that you can't possibly win from the insiders and other guys milking the market. Whenever such a possibility potentially arises, they would just stay away from trading altogether. You can only take money from other outsiders, but ultimately you will still be run over. Some can only learn that the hard way while some can't learn at all

[sidhujag]

you've gone full tinfoil hat retard

The only people who have gone full tinfoil hat are the ones who overlook the fact that Armstrong CONVENIENTLY leaves out the possibility of a new overnight Bretton Woods revaluation occurring when it's actually the #1 most plausible thing since it has precedent.  Where do "capital flows" fit into that equation of a non-aggregate market black swan revaluation?  Answer:  They don't.

Bankers start wars and do black swan revals to make everything happen on their terms.  They don't let market play out organically ever, which is why Armstrong data is useless. You can only be one of two things:  an outsider or insider.  Which means Armstrong is either an outsider giving us bogus information or an insider giving us bogus information

That's what I'm basically telling wannabe traders here myself

But they don't seem to care until they start losing heavily. If over 90% of all traders are losing in the long run, anyone with eyes and a half functioning brain would see that something is very wrong with the markets internally. The point is that you can't possibly win from the insiders and other guys milking the market. Whenever such a possibility potentially arises, they would just stay away from trading altogether. You can only take money from other outsiders, but ultimately you will still be run over. Some can only learn that the hard way while some can't learn at all

Learned this in forex... its all about inside info and where liquidity lies for margin calls on dumb money... since i switched to crypto its night and day although same type of thing happens with btc but not as much yet... its just how market works. However since im a developer it makes so much more sense to be where i am than to try to swim against the current 24 7

[tabnloz]

Interesting last few pages!

I tend to agree with iamnotback, but some of the points raised by Roach etc are certainly plausible.

Some questions I have to contribute to the discussion:

Does any kind of new accord come before of after a major event?

In light of the geopolitics, would all big parties be willing to accept a new accord ? Roughly the last decade has been a period of financial war and an overnight reset seems hard to organise. How are US, China, Russia etc going to agree?

How does the change in US leadership meld with the existing power base in DC? Trump seems likely to form alliance with Russia, isolating China, while the existing cabal looks to destroy Russia, meaning an alliance with China is beneficial.

To me it seems as though things have been turning in a macro sense for a while. The direction is to flow into US denominated assets, which equals a bump in US stock prices. When does this start to hurt emerging markets via currency / dollar debt? How long can a dollar bull last before hurting US? Does it have to be at least longer than the emerging markets can handle?

Hope we can all realise that a difference of opinion here is beneficial to all and we can discuss competing scenarios. At least if our personal opinions are proved incorrect we are going to have some clue how it may play out otherwise.

edit: in light of the Rogoff interview saying that bitcoin will be prevented by govt, how does that play into proceedings? My take is that he would love to tax it but its very nature makes that pretty difficult the more the ecosystem grows. But, his comments probably shed light on what is coming.

[r0ach]

Unrelated but feels like watching Bitcoin go down the shitter in slow motion:

Rusty Russler isn't too good on selling the idea of LN when his post comes across as a plea for why Bitcoin needs to be micromanaged by a permanent team of technocrats turning valves to ensure some variable is set to a completely arbitrary number they made up.  If you're going to be speaking to a Bitcoin audience, you can't come across sounding like Paul Krugman trying to justify keynesianism:

https://medium.com/@rusty_lightning/bitcoin-lightning-things-to-know-e5ea8d84369f#.c8brfwm38

The whole point of a nash equilibrium is supposed to be that there are no technocrats!

[OROBTC]

...

The photo that shows that The Elite are never held accountable.  Why should they be?  When they control all the levers.

Ms. Lagarde (head of the IMF, and will keep her position) was found guilty, but will receive no penalty.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/the-photo-that-shows-the-elite-are-never-accountable/

https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Lagarde-Judges.jpg

[deisik]

...

The photo that shows that The Elite are never held accountable.  Why should they be?  When they control all the levers.

Ms. Lagarde (head of the IMF, and will keep her position) was found guilty, but will receive no penalty

You kinda stand to be corrected

The predecessor of Ms. Lagarde, Strauss-Kahn, seems to have not been that lucky. I guess I don't need to reiterate his story of sexual scandals which he didn't get away with even though he was acquitted later (if I'm not mistaken). Thereby, we basically have two options, namely, he didn't belong to the authentic elite at all but then Lagarde shouldn't either (and she has been actually lucky to get off cheap), or elites are not as invulnerable and immune as we think they are...



So which option are you more inclined to choose?

[OROBTC]

...

deisik

An Option 3 is possible too.  Strauss-Kahn may have embarrassed himself (or worse: other Elite members) and gotten the boot just for that.  IIRC, he was hanging around and molesting women in gross ways for years.

The Elite is a little bit flexible.  They can kick-out members, and of course induct new ones.

Also, there are probably hierarchies.  If you are a Rothschild or Soros, you can pretty much get away with almost anything as long as it is not widely known.  The Clintons, after all, are still in The Elite.  Yet, Huma and Weiner are probably on the way OUT because they are no longer useful to the rest of 'em...

[iamnotback]

The only people who have gone full tinfoil hat are the ones who overlook the fact that Armstrong CONVENIENTLY leaves out the possibility of a new overnight Bretton Woods revaluation occurring when it's actually the #1 most plausible thing since it has precedent.  Where do "capital flows" fit into that equation of a non-aggregate market black swan revaluation?  Answer:  They don't.

Armstrong thoroughly expects that BW#2 after 2018, probably 2020ish.

And the capital flows vortex is what must happen first in order to make the rest of the world beg for BW#2.

Sorry r0ach, you just don't read Armstrong sufficiently, so you don't know WTF you are talking about w.r.t. to him. I use that term "WTF" because you make such outlandish false accusations of Armstrong. It deserves that sort of reaction, that you shoot from the hip without really knowing what Armstrong has predicted.

[deisik]

...

deisik

An Option 3 is possible too.  Strauss-Kahn may have embarrassed himself (or worse: other Elite members) and gotten the boot just for that.  IIRC, he was hanging around and molesting women in gross ways for years.

The Elite is a little bit flexible.  They can kick-out members, and of course induct new ones.

Also, there are probably hierarchies.  If you are a Rothschild or Soros, you can pretty much get away with almost anything as long as it is not widely known.  The Clintons, after all, are still in The Elite.  Yet, Huma and Weiner are probably on the way OUT because they are no longer useful to the rest of 'em...

Indeed, I expected you to suggest the option #3

But consider the possibility that you might be inadvertently twisting the facts to better fit your idea. If you are one of the Elite members, no one can give you a boot by definition, since otherwise you are pretty much not one of them. If they can kick out members and induct new members as you assume, these new members certainly won't belong to their flock or pack. As I always say, power (real power) cannot be given, it can only be taken from weak or weakened hands (see Trump as the most recent example). Saying that the elites might be fighting with each other comes down to saying that there is no Elite at all as you mean it. In any case, infighting wouldn't be made public

[r0ach]

Armstrong thoroughly expects that BW#2 after 2018, probably 2020ish.

I don't think the housing bubble v2 can last that long with rising interest rates, amongst other variables like a fragile bond market selling off to push rates further, with those previous factors also heavily favoring a stock crash.  So, in other words, either some heavy inflation will be engineered in the near future or some big events should occur sooner than that Armstrong timeline.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong thoroughly expects that BW#2 after 2018, probably 2020ish.

I don't think the housing bubble v2 can last that long with rising interest rates, amongst other variables like a fragile bond market selling off to push rates further, with those previous factors also heavily favoring a stock crash.  So, in other words, either some heavy inflation will be engineered in the near future or some big events should occur sooner than that Armstrong timeline.

Rising interest rates will push those who were on the fence as to when to buy a home to act more quickly. Also the initial effect of Trump's policies is likely to be stimulative, especially if he lures the $5 trillion abroad back home with the corporate tax rate cut to 15%. But the real effect is the stampede of international capital into the USA as short dollar vortex kicks in. Speculative hot money will flow into USA houses, stocks, and the dollar. Speculation chases speculation, in an upward spiral (interest rates having nothing to do with flipping houses and stocks for a speculative gain as they guys are paying cash). This will not peak until the short dollar vortex does, which is roughly end of next year at least.

Of course it is going to end very badly and Armstrong has always said that. And he has said gold will shine once that dollar vortex has peaked and the CONFIDENCE of the public turns to the reality that the USA is also fucked. But first, dollar up, gold down. If you had sold at $1362 and bought BTC at $600s when I was screaming to make that trade, you'd be quite a bit more wealthy by now.

Don't make the same mistake when there is a chance to invest in my Bitcoin killer altcoin project. There is indeed a solution to the technology problem which you think is insoluble. My 30,000 word, 200 cited references whitepaper will be available at that time so you can evaluate my claim. Also there appears to be (not 100% sure yet) a cure to my illness.

Saying that the elites might be fighting with each other comes down to saying that there is no Elite at all as you mean it. In any case, infighting wouldn't be made public

That is not logical.

[OROBTC]

...

Investment decisions are based on many parameters, including (especially) in my case.  Timing, predictions, observations of past & present and many other things swirl around me as I try my best to preserve my family's capital.

I cannot complain, much has been given to me, I cannot CLAIM to have earned my my way here...

The Elite(s) really DO seem to be broken into factions which DO fight each other, but of course their MAIN JOB is keep them all on top, despite any spats.

* * *

Health is No. One (maybe No. Two depending on who you talk to), so get better iamnotback!  A mind is a terrible thing to waste!

And, I wish the very best to all o' ya motherfuckerz in this holiday season.  May our lives better, with more of the Good and less of the Bad in this coming year.

It IS going to be an interesting year.  I am proud to be sharing it with all of ya sumzabitchez. 

We will watch together, no?

[r0ach]

This is an interesting story to highlight the black swan effect Trump himself may have very early on.  The Marxist Jews tried to boycott the Swedish right wing party (which is pretty tame compared to the alt-right in the west and people like me) and Trump canceled his meeting with the Israeli Marxists in protest of their treatment of the Swedish right wing:

http://www.dailystormer.com/team-trump-cancels-meeting-with-israeli-jew-over-refusal-to-allow-sweden-democrats-to-join/

[criptix]

This is an interesting story to highlight the black swan effect Trump himself may have very early on.  The Marxist Jews tried to boycott the Swedish right wing party (which is pretty tame compared to the alt-right in the west and people like me) and Trump canceled his meeting with the Israeli Marxists in protest of their treatment of the Swedish right wing:

http://www.dailystormer.com/team-trump-cancels-meeting-with-israeli-jew-over-refusal-to-allow-sweden-democrats-to-join/

Uh if you look at trumps adviser team: it nearly has as much billionaire jews then the knesset has members...


Btw. Why is trump not being considered as a hawk if he has ppl from the heritage foundation like Dunlop working for and advising him?

[r0ach]

Don't make the same mistake when there is a chance to invest in my Bitcoin killer altcoin project. There is indeed a solution to the technology problem which you think is insoluble. My 30,000 word, 200 cited references whitepaper will be available at that time so you can evaluate my claim. Also there appears to be (not 100% sure yet) a cure to my illness.

My philosophy on crypto is that there's no way possible it resides lower on Exter's pyramid than metals, so in this regard cryptocurrency will always be the bad money that drives out good money.  I know that's not what people want to hear, but fundamentally that is objective reality. 

In this example let's pretend no other cryptocurrency exists except Bitcoin.  People will simply wait for Bitcoin's market cap to top out whether it's from capacity, fees, full saturation, etc, then once they notice it has, all of that money will then run to the exits in a stampede to cash out for gold and silver since it's a superior store of value.  So in this regard, no matter how good you think you can do in creating some type of digital monetary contraption, in the end you will always be operating the equivalent of a pump and dump or elaborate casino arbitrage game.

It's kind of comical actually.  We're just moving the Wall Street casino into a new shell game for people to play musical chairs in, guessing where the top is going to be then everyone scrambles for the seat of actual sound money.

[deisik]

In this example let's pretend no other cryptocurrency exists except Bitcoin.  People will simply wait for Bitcoin's market cap to top out whether it's from capacity, fees, full saturation, etc, then once they notice it has, all of that money will then run to the exits in a stampede to cash out for gold and silver since it's a superior store of value.  So in this regard, no matter how good you think you can do in creating some type of digital monetary contraption, in the end you will always be operating the equivalent of a pump and dump or elaborate casino arbitrage game

You seem to be missing a few important details

I see that there is no fiat in your scheme of things. But you can't escape from explaining its interaction with gold either since it is just as bad money in comparison with gold as Bitcoin is (or even badder than it). But you say nothing about that. Fiat has been there for ages but have we seen anyone running to cash out for gold and silver massively? I guess it is a far cry from that. In most cases, people just run for another fiat currency if their local one gets heavily devalued. Further, in the last 35 years gold didn't even outperform dollar inflation, so there is no particular reason to think that your theory can stand. Just because reality is nowhere close to what it claims