Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Risk Mgmt]

LATEST FROM MA

We have two Weekly Bearish Reversals in play today. The first is a key level 15994 and the second is short-term 15942. Certainly, a closing beneath both will warn that the Dow may yet break to test under the 14000 level going into as late as the week of February 22nd near-term and possibly extend into March.

The Monthly Bearish Reversal will come into play if we break and that lies at 13937. This is the number that would mark a more sustainable break to the downside rather than a short-term correction. So pay attention to this number for this defines the broader-term for now. We also have a Monthly Bearish Reversal at 16015.  This is short-term. The Monthly Bearish Reversal that would signal a bear market trend into 2017 would be a Monthly closing BELOW 12470. This is where we draw the line in the sand for this move. Because March would be 10 months down from the May 2015 intraday high, that potential remains in play.


Using our What-If models, if we manage to break and test the 13000 area, then the corresponding Monthly Bullish would be generated at about the 16505 to 16590 level. From a timing perspective, the final intraday low could extend into March if we elect both of these Weekly Bearish Reversals today. So pay attend and get ready to rock and roll.

[Risk Mgmt]

Has anyone tried MA's Socrates trader level, I believe it was $750 for the year?If so, has it helped you trading?

FFF13 msg me....thanks

[TPTB_need_war]

We will soon know if gold is going to crash and bottom in March or not:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/down-dirty-for-the-dow-feb-or-march-low/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-here-we-go-again/

[TPTB_need_war]

Hey look ma, I am on video:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1219023.msg13891294#msg13891294

[tabnloz]

Armstrong is to be interviewed by Raoul Pal @ RealVision TV this week for inclusion on their subscription site.

[Alex-11]

Beginner questions:
1. MA has posted opening pivot numbers for Gold.  Is that from NYMEX ( see kitco) opening hours, i.e. NY local time 8 am or NY-Globex at 00:00?
2. Reversals closing numbers for Gold. Where can I get those? MA gave an actuall closing number of 1239,40 for last Friday. But all of the closing numbers I've seen are lower.  Investing.com  came closest with 1239.10 , but not an exact match, but an exact match may be important for the reversals.
Thanks.

[Risk Mgmt]

Beginner questions:
1. MA has posted opening pivot numbers for Gold.  Is that from NYMEX ( see kitco) opening hours, i.e. NY local time 8 am or NY-Globex at 00:00?
2. Reversals closing numbers for Gold. Where can I get those? MA gave an actuall closing number of 1239,40 for last Friday. But all of the closing numbers I've seen are lower.  Investing.com  came closest with 1239.10 , but not an exact match, but an exact match may be important for the reversals.
Thanks.

Yes -- please can someone explain to newbie like me the above statements by MA.

Today open GOLD price was also lower ....        So what does that mean --- does it mean the bear trend in GOLD remains and we should expect a low soon?   Is there a low target?

[Risk Mgmt]

FEB 16, -- late noon entry by MA

Gold fell back to 1191 and then rallied back to the 1216 area. Gold appears to be setting up to extend the counter-trend reaction into the first week of March. With back-to-back Directional Changes for the weeks of 02/08 and 02/15, the typical outcome is one of a choppy trend. Last week we got the high and this week may produce the reaction low. If this proves to be the case, then we should extend the rally into the week of the 29th. Overall, volatility should begin to rise over the next three weeks. So stay nimble and objective. If we rally into the end of the month, then we can still see a test of the 1309 area.

Using our What-If models, we suspect that a new high during the week of 02/29 should bring in a Weekly Bearish up to the 1170 area. If that is elected, then gold has most likely prolonged the agony and we will then look to the next Benchmark. None of the price action so far has negated the potential to penetrate the $1,000 level for a final low.

If I understand correclty...below is what i took in...please feel free to correct me..  THANK YOU
I expect week of FEB-16-2016 to produce a low in Gold.   Than get back on GOLD RALLYING up to test high 1300 level.... which should eventually fizzle out in MARCH.2016

[Alex-11]

If I understand correclty...below is what i took in...please feel free to correct me..  THANK YOU
I expect week of FEB-16-2016 to produce a low in Gold.   Than get back on GOLD RALLYING up to test high 1300 level.... which should eventually fizzle out in MARCH.2016

yes, I also unterstand this is the preferred scenario of MA.

Yes -- please can someone explain to newbie like me the above statements by MA.  ..... Today open GOLD price was also lower ..

Do you mean the pivot number ? At the moment there is no daily pivot number available on the blog. Only a weekly number (1289) and  the weekly opening is below that number. So that should mean a lower weekly closing,

[Risk Mgmt]

If I understand correclty...below is what i took in...please feel free to correct me..  THANK YOU
I expect week of FEB-16-2016 to produce a low in Gold.   Than get back on GOLD RALLYING up to test high 1300 level.... which should eventually fizzle out in MARCH.2016

yes, I also unterstand this is the preferred scenario of MA.

Yes -- please can someone explain to newbie like me the above statements by MA.  ..... Today open GOLD price was also lower ..

Do you mean the pivot number ? At the moment there is no daily pivot number available on the blog. Only a weekly number (1289) and  the weekly opening is below that number. So that should mean a lower weekly closing,

Alex-11  -- Thank you.

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Reality

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong : Since you have deep knowledge about coins and currencies going back to ancient times, it would be really helpful to get your view of what Bitcoin is or could be as a sort of “World Currency”. Is it a fad or something that should be taken seriously?
Thank you – BH

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/bitcoin-reality/

martin armstrong on Bitcoin

[OROBTC]

Bitcoin Reality

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong : Since you have deep knowledge about coins and currencies going back to ancient times, it would be really helpful to get your view of what Bitcoin is or could be as a sort of “World Currency”. Is it a fad or something that should be taken seriously?
Thank you – BH

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/bitcoin-reality/

martin armstrong on Bitcoin

Nice catch. 

I would agree with Armstrong that electronic "money" will NOT become any world currency for a long time.  There are NO local businesses that I know of (major US city: metro population over 2,000,000) that even take BTC.  NO ONE in Peru takes it that I know of.

Bitcoin may catch on as a popular payment option, I hope so.  But, I would expect that to happen in the USA and Europe first.  If BTC cannot become widely used in the developed countries, I doubt that it would be worldwide.

TPTB also has raised the issue of Chinese dominance in mining of BTC, a mild negative to BTC IMO.

[jehst]

Bitcoin Reality

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong : Since you have deep knowledge about coins and currencies going back to ancient times, it would be really helpful to get your view of what Bitcoin is or could be as a sort of “World Currency”. Is it a fad or something that should be taken seriously?
Thank you – BH

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/bitcoin-reality/

martin armstrong on Bitcoin

Nice catch.  

I would agree with Armstrong that electronic "money" will NOT become any world currency for a long time.  There are NO local businesses that I know of (major US city: metro population over 2,000,000) that even take BTC.  NO ONE in Peru takes it that I know of.

Bitcoin may catch on as a popular payment option, I hope so.  But, I would expect that to happen in the USA and Europe first.  If BTC cannot become widely used in the developed countries, I doubt that it would be worldwide.

TPTB also has raised the issue of Chinese dominance in mining of BTC, a mild negative to BTC IMO.

"world currency" is an insanely high bar. why not address the question of whether cryptocurrencies will find a niche and how big that niche could be? obviously bitcoin is not going to be made the sole "world currency." it's a dumb question to begin with. people are buying bitcoin with the idea that it is playing some role in the global economy and will play a larger role in the coming years. larger than 6 or 10 billion dollars worth. there's a lot of space in between 10 billion and the world's total money supply. if there's a 100-bagger, i won't give a flying fuck about the fact that bitcoin didn't become the world currency or that some governments end up banning it.

[marcus_of_augustus]

"world currency" is an insanely high bar. why not address the question of whether cryptocurrencies will find a niche and how big that niche could be? obviously bitcoin is not going to be made the sole "world currency." it's a dumb question to begin with. people are buying bitcoin with the idea that it is playing some role in the global economy and will play a larger role in the coming years. larger than 6 or 10 billion dollars worth. there's a lot of space in between 10 billion and the world's total money supply.  if there's a 100-bagger, i won't give a flying fuck about the fact that bitcoin didn't become the world currency.

.... finally some sensible commentary. Global M2 is in the $80 trillion range (hard to get good figures). Bitcoin total float value could go up 133 times and still only fill a 1% niche.

[TPTB_need_war]

Bitcoin Reality

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong : Since you have deep knowledge about coins and currencies going back to ancient times, it would be really helpful to get your view of what Bitcoin is or could be as a sort of “World Currency”. Is it a fad or something that should be taken seriously?
Thank you – BH

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/bitcoin-reality/

martin armstrong on Bitcoin

Nice catch.  

I would agree with Armstrong that electronic "money" will NOT become any world currency for a long time.  There are NO local businesses that I know of (major US city: metro population over 2,000,000) that even take BTC.  NO ONE in Peru takes it that I know of.

Bitcoin may catch on as a popular payment option, I hope so.

...

Until now, all crypto coins have been marketed to investors.

The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation.

Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free.

Bitcoin the better gold.

Word.

This redudancy + partionning paradox is extremely hard to understand for a newbie who's native language is not even english...

It would be really appreciated if someone could rephrase this paradox summing up with easy terms what is the issue and its consequencies

I am years ago of your computer science knowledge and I may stay years ago of your knowledge in this field for the rest of my life since it isn't my study field.

Thank you in advance.  

Hopefully r0ach and others can offer their laymen's summaries.

What you need to know is that Ethereum as it is currently designed can't scale just as Bitcoin can't scale, but the level of scaling which the current Ethereum can do is much less than even Bitcoin's current limitation because verification/validation of Serpent scripts takes more resources than verification/validation of ECDSA signatures.

For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, this is not just an issue of block size limitation. The issue is that in order to scale, the mining becomes more centralized. I think you will should note that Bitcoin and all other major coins are entirely centralized already and on the precipice of failure (all of them! study my links!).

Thus Ethereum proposed Casper which is a design that attempts to use sharding (a.k.a. partitions) to improve scaling decentralized. But I explained in this thread, that can't work. To reduce electricity consumption, Ethereum also proposed PoS-like consensus-by-betting with forfeitable deposits. PoS has known failure modes that violate Nash equilibrium.

So the point of all this is that Ethereum and all the rest of the crypto coins have not yet solved the fundamental issue of decentralized consensus.

If you want to read a theoretical discussion of why, I did that too.

Okay that is enough from me. Adios.

[TPTB_need_war]

What happened to sloanf and his BS nonsense about MA's real estate cycle:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-in-decline/

[hdbuck]

"world currency" is an insanely high bar. why not address the question of whether cryptocurrencies will find a niche and how big that niche could be? obviously bitcoin is not going to be made the sole "world currency." it's a dumb question to begin with. people are buying bitcoin with the idea that it is playing some role in the global economy and will play a larger role in the coming years. larger than 6 or 10 billion dollars worth. there's a lot of space in between 10 billion and the world's total money supply.  if there's a 100-bagger, i won't give a flying fuck about the fact that bitcoin didn't become the world currency.

.... finally some sensible commentary. Global M2 is in the $80 trillion range (hard to get good figures). Bitcoin total float value could go up 133 times and still only fill a 1% niche.

and we then would be the lucky one percenters..

[TPTB_need_war]

"world currency" is an insanely high bar. why not address the question of whether cryptocurrencies will find a niche and how big that niche could be? obviously bitcoin is not going to be made the sole "world currency." it's a dumb question to begin with. people are buying bitcoin with the idea that it is playing some role in the global economy and will play a larger role in the coming years. larger than 6 or 10 billion dollars worth. there's a lot of space in between 10 billion and the world's total money supply.  if there's a 100-bagger, i won't give a flying fuck about the fact that bitcoin didn't become the world currency.

.... finally some sensible commentary. Global M2 is in the $80 trillion range (hard to get good figures). Bitcoin total float value could go up 133 times and still only fill a 1% niche.

and we then would be the lucky one percenters..

Typical foolish delusion...

Go with both.
However if you wanna be  very flexible and quick in leaving when shit hits the fan(economy down, bail ins, dictatorship,gold gets mostly banned, cash only exist in small bills,) Bitcoin will have some advantages compared to gold.
Let's say you want to migrate to another country in oversea somewhere, hiding gold in your luggage would be a bad option if you own a bit more of it.The same goes for cash.So Bitcoin would be the right choice here.

Won't help you as they will ban Bitcoin to fiat transactions. And maybe even ban Bitcoin transactions that don't include a KYC id. The Chinese miners already control 65% of Bitcoin's mining. China can dictate the protocol. China has vetoed any block size increase so they already proved they are in control of Bitcon.

I explained in my video why you can't fork away from that. Impossible.

The end is near. You fools are trapped.

There is no solution.

Weep.

[hdbuck]

"world currency" is an insanely high bar. why not address the question of whether cryptocurrencies will find a niche and how big that niche could be? obviously bitcoin is not going to be made the sole "world currency." it's a dumb question to begin with. people are buying bitcoin with the idea that it is playing some role in the global economy and will play a larger role in the coming years. larger than 6 or 10 billion dollars worth. there's a lot of space in between 10 billion and the world's total money supply.  if there's a 100-bagger, i won't give a flying fuck about the fact that bitcoin didn't become the world currency.

.... finally some sensible commentary. Global M2 is in the $80 trillion range (hard to get good figures). Bitcoin total float value could go up 133 times and still only fill a 1% niche.

and we then would be the lucky one percenters..

Typical foolish delusion...

Go with both.
However if you wanna be  very flexible and quick in leaving when shit hits the fan(economy down, bail ins, dictatorship,gold gets mostly banned, cash only exist in small bills,) Bitcoin will have some advantages compared to gold.
Let's say you want to migrate to another country in oversea somewhere, hiding gold in your luggage would be a bad option if you own a bit more of it.The same goes for cash.So Bitcoin would be the right choice here.

Won't help you as they will ban Bitcoin to fiat transactions. And maybe even ban Bitcoin transactions that don't include a KYC id. The Chinese miners already control 65% of Bitcoin's mining. China can dictate the protocol.

I explained in my video why you can't fork away from that. Impossible.

The end is near. You fools are trapped.

There is no solution.

Weep.

Meh, sorry, but banning or not, chinese miners or not, bitcoin will stay, and nobody nor nothing will ever control it but greed.

Even more, i do hope govs around the world will outlaw bitcoin so that it will not be parasited by the mainstream shitful usecases, spamming and politics...

The only delusional folks are the banksters and the sheeples.

[sloanf]

What happened to sloanf and his BS nonsense about MA's real estate cycle:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-in-decline/

and? What are you trying to prove? Should we listen to an uneducated charlatan who sells crap to idiots like yourself or should we resort to facts? https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSUSHPINSA