Martin Armstrong Discussion

[STT]

Martin Armstrong's predictions coming true. It really looks like 2017 for serious global economic collapse, except the USA which will grow strong and US dollar will grow stronger:

I wouldnt describe as a collapse until the engine and main momentum of the failure actually comes to a stop.  Collapse would seem to suggest an ending to the move and a negative settlement.   What we have now is wild swings up and down, the motivator in this being Dollar; global growth being apparent if not stable.  If Armstrong says Dollar will just get stronger then we are no longer discussing collapse but speculating on the amplitude of the waves created by USA gov policy both domestic and their monetary effect on world commerce via the reserve currency.

When Dollar ends you have your collapse, either its default or a kind of melt down that leaves it no longer able to negatively effect.  We have then a final collapse, rebuilding or whatever can occur at that point

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/how-the-fed-s-cold-war-with-congress-could-harm-the-u-s-economy

[1714673292]

1714673292

[1714673292]

1714673292

[1714673292]

1714673292

[1714673292]

1714673292

[1714673292]

1714673292

[TPTB_need_war]

Martin Armstrong's predictions coming true. It really looks like 2017 for serious global economic collapse, except the USA which will grow strong and US dollar will grow stronger:

I wouldnt describe as a collapse until the engine and main momentum of the failure actually comes to a stop.  Collapse would seem to suggest an ending to the move and a negative settlement.   What we have now is wild swings up and down, the motivator in this being Dollar; global growth being apparent if not stable.  If Armstrong says Dollar will just get stronger then we are no longer discussing collapse but speculating on the amplitude of the waves created by USA gov policy both domestic and their monetary effect on world commerce via the reserve currency.

When Dollar ends you have your collapse, either its default or a kind of melt down that leaves it no longer able to negatively effect.  We have then a final collapse, rebuilding or whatever can occur at that point

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/how-the-fed-s-cold-war-with-congress-could-harm-the-u-s-economy

I meant the debt collapse of the periphery which includes most countries except the USA begins in earnest in 2017.

MA has stated that the collapse of the dollar reserve system will be after 2017, perhaps between 2018 and 2020. The rest of the world will complain that the strong dollar has strangled the global economy (when in fact it was because they had pegged their currencies to dollar and borrowed in dollars thus creating massive structural imbalances and carry trades that have to be unwound and will drive the dollar sky high).

[OROBTC]

Martin Armstrong's predictions coming true. It really looks like 2017 for serious global economic collapse, except the USA which will grow strong and US dollar will grow stronger:

I wouldnt describe as a collapse until the engine and main momentum of the failure actually comes to a stop.  Collapse would seem to suggest an ending to the move and a negative settlement.   What we have now is wild swings up and down, the motivator in this being Dollar; global growth being apparent if not stable.  If Armstrong says Dollar will just get stronger then we are no longer discussing collapse but speculating on the amplitude of the waves created by USA gov policy both domestic and their monetary effect on world commerce via the reserve currency.

When Dollar ends you have your collapse, either its default or a kind of melt down that leaves it no longer able to negatively effect.  We have then a final collapse, rebuilding or whatever can occur at that point

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/how-the-fed-s-cold-war-with-congress-could-harm-the-u-s-economy

I meant the debt collapse of the periphery which includes most countries except the USA begins in earnest in 2017.

MA has stated that the collapse of the dollar reserve system will be after 2017, perhaps between 2018 and 2020. The rest of the world will complain that the strong dollar has strangled the global economy (when in fact it was because they had pegged their currencies to dollar and borrowed in dollars thus creating massive structural imbalances and carry trades that have to be unwound and will drive the dollar sky high).

Loosely related is our own experience in Peru.  Their local currency, the Sol, has been trading down sharply vs. the dollar (even more sharply than the rest of the world's currencies).

Normally when exporter country currencies decline, you see a lower price for their export goods.  So far we have not (ball and roller bearings from Korea, Japan and China). 

The net effect on our company has been higher prices (higher dollar NOT inducing a lower US$ price for our products) and lower revenues in US$ terms (our revenues are in Peruvian Soles).

It's not been pretty for us even with Asian currencies down vs. the buck.

And Peru may seems to be entering recession (fewer exports of copper (etc.) and lower prices for what they DO export)...  Ugh. 

[Lateralus]

Hey first post on this forum,

All I can say is hallelujah, I've been following Armstrong's work for over 10 years now and I've been struggling to find a place where people actually discuss his work. I skimmed through most of this thread and I just love the way some of you guys have found a way to describe the scientific and philosophical intricacies of his work. I also found it pretty funny how many pseudo-skeptics seem to think Armstrong does something so shallow as to make "predictions", and then think they're clever by pointing out where he was "wrong". All I know is I've yet to give Armstrong a dime of my money (although I've been waiting patiently for Socrates), and yet he has single handedly turned me into a very successful trader simply because he always shared the vast vast majority of his knowledge (including arrays & reversal numbers!) for free in his blog and library.

I'm curious, has anyone ever read his 1996 Princeton Economics Tax Reform Proposal? I find it absolutely fascinating, and funny enough it wasn't until I read it that I really began to understand the rest of his work. Why exactly? It's hard to put into words, but I think it's because it helped me TRULY understand exactly how the government actions almost always result in the very opposite of the intentions behind them. For some reason once I had a decent understanding of what was wrong with government, the science behind his models & methodologies started to become more clear.

[m4nki]

Hey first post on this forum,

All I can say is hallelujah, I've been following Armstrong's work for over 10 years now and I've been struggling to find a place where people actually discuss his work. I skimmed through most of this thread and I just love the way some of you guys have found a way to describe the scientific and philosophical intricacies of his work. I also found it pretty funny how many pseudo-skeptics seem to think Armstrong does something so shallow as to make "predictions", and then think they're clever by pointing out where he was "wrong". All I know is I've yet to give Armstrong a dime of my money (although I've been waiting patiently for Socrates), and yet he has single handedly turned me into a very successful trader simply because he always shared the vast vast majority of his knowledge (including arrays & reversal numbers!) for free in his blog and library.

I'm curious, has anyone ever read his 1996 Princeton Economics Tax Reform Proposal? I find it absolutely fascinating, and funny enough it wasn't until I read it that I really began to understand the rest of his work. Why exactly? It's hard to put into words, but I think it's because it helped me TRULY understand exactly how the government actions almost always result in the very opposite of the intentions behind them. For some reason once I had a decent understanding of what was wrong with government, the science behind his models & methodologies started to become more clear.

Welcome and thanks for sharing the link - I will definately check it out!

Yes, totally understand your point - I also became an avid reader of his blog and found it really cool to see Martin Armstrongs work is being discussed here.

Fractals rule this universe.

[STT]

Loosely related is our own experience in Peru.  Their local currency, the Sol, has been trading down sharply vs. the dollar (even more sharply than the rest of the world's currencies).

Normally when exporter country currencies decline, you see a lower price for their export goods.  So far we have not (ball and roller bearings from Korea, Japan and China).  

The net effect on our company has been higher prices (higher dollar NOT inducing a lower US$ price for our products) and lower revenues in US$ terms (our revenues are in Peruvian Soles).

It's not been pretty for us even with Asian currencies down vs. the buck.

And Peru may seems to be entering recession (fewer exports of copper (etc.) and lower prices for what they DO export)...  Ugh.  

Im not that clear on the patterns of Dollar distortion unfavourable to global currency values but Im not surprised to hear dollar causes problems by being possibly overvalued.    Its an issue which needs to be fixed or rather some currencies should be unfixed in their relationships perhaps

I never realised how famous Armstrong is then, I just related him as another figure like Mike Maloney
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

[DigiLab]

Lateralus, thank you for providing the link, much appreciated.
Also good to hear an opinion from someone who is following M.A for longer period of time.

In that respect, yes, M.A's work is quite impressive and unique, especially his explanations on what economy is and its inner workings.
As for this thread, there are few very bright fellows here, and as I guess one can already assume, TPTB leading the pack.

[TPTB_need_war]

I wonder when MA will clue in on that Trump is fracturing the Republican party which will enable Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency.

[...]

As I predicted he would:

It seems the elite Republicans want Trump to exit the Republican Party and become Independent for they would rather hand it all to Hillary to ensure their rank and career political status. The fear Trump will be an outsider who will trim the sails of government and reduce wasteful spending that feeds their friends and family, is just too much for them to accept.

[Risk Mgmt]

Can someone kindly decipher is most current comments on Gold.
I believ pe he stated high probability of Gold diving starting 2nd/3rd week of March

From 1309-1362 at most upside for Gold.

Your feedbackmis greatly apprecisted

Thank you

[TPTB_need_war]

Subprime pump is back at least in Texas:

Almost all of Texas has been certified as a rural housing area. Conventional 30 year fixed mortgages at 3.875% are available to those with good, fair and even poor credit. These are 100% loans -- no down payment. Inspections and appraisal fees can be loaded into the loan so you come to the table with literally zero down.

If your credit score is above 580 and one of the income earners in the home has been on the job for a year, you'll likely qualify.

If you're not wanting to live in the suburbs of Austin, you can still live in the city and obtain a 96.5% mortgage. There are numerous grants available that can take care of much, and sometimes all, of the 3.5% down payment.

There are no extra fees, no extra points, no hidden surcharges - just a conventional mortgage to those that couldn't normally (or those that could) qualify for a loan.

Please visit the site below. We ask no information from you - it's a road map to home ownership.

http://austin.affordthedream.net

[Alex-11]

Can someone kindly decipher is most current comments on Gold.
I believ pe he stated high probability of Gold diving starting 2nd/3rd week of March

From 1309-1362 at most upside for Gold.

Your feedbackmis greatly apprecisted

Thank you

To my understanding gold may go up to the area you mentioned.  Today, Gold has to close above 1277  (April contract). This is the weekly bullish. If it can't close above that number, I belive that next week gold won't go up a lot.
If the Euro is in crash mode by mid of march (that was announced by MA), then I guess gold will be too in crash mode.

[TPTB_need_war]

WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon

Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/precious-metals-march-4th-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-eu-going-quietly-into-the-light/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/moodys-warns-of-30-rise-in-commodity-based-company-bankruptcies-in-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/east_asia/moodys-lowers-credit-rating-of-china-to-negative-from-stable/

It is not certain that gold will elect the March 13/14 turning point to begin its collapse to the final bottom of the correction that began 2011. And it is not certain that crypto-currencies will follow.

But the level of irrational pumping of altcoins tells me that we are very near to a 2013 top in crypto-currencies. The irrational speculation is off the charts again and not based in any sense of reality just as was the case for those arguing for Bitcoin to go to $1 million per BTC back in 2013. For example, Ethereum has 0 users, 0 working, scaled apps, no consensus algorithm after $18 million expended. Yet the market cap is heading towards $1 billion.

I am sniffing a big collapse in the making. Not sure if it is this March or later in the summer, but I am warning you.

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

You will need some dry powder to buy when there is blood in the streets.

You've been warned.

[sidhujag]

Just do the opposite of the above poster and you will be fine. Crypto is booming and more and more money coming in. Eth can be applauded for bringing much interest to the scene which is refreshing. Many cool projects on the go one of which I am a part of. I hope people sense that crypto is on the bend towards a nice trajectory which rewards those with patience and most of all common sense.

[btcbug]

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

I'm not risking trading. I'm long term. What you say could be correct, but even if Gold does go lower in the medium term, BTC might not be affected. We saw the past several years where Gold was in a bear market and BTC was booming.

[OROBTC]

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

I'm not risking trading. I'm long term. What you say could be correct, but even if Gold does go lower in the medium term, BTC might not be affected. We saw the past several years where Gold was in a bear market and BTC was booming.

Mmm-hmm.  Prices of BTC and gold do seem to move relatively independently of each other.  That is why I have no problem suggesting owning both, that the various partisans favoring BTC or gold miss the point.

Not only have they moved independently, their roles are different.  Gold is insurance vs. .gov malfeasance.  HODLING BTC may yield a big speculative profit, or maybe not!  

Disclosure: I own both.  I also own "physical CA$H", which may very well be a great short-term defense against OTHER COUNTRIES messing up worse than the USA.

[THX 1138]

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

I'm not risking trading. I'm long term. What you say could be correct, but even if Gold does go lower in the medium term, BTC might not be affected. We saw the past several years where Gold was in a bear market and BTC was booming.

Mmm-hmm.  Prices of BTC and gold do seem to move relatively independently of each other.  That is why I have no problem suggesting owning both, that the various partisans favoring BTC or gold miss the point.

Not only have they moved independently, their roles are different.  Gold is insurance vs. .gov malfeasance.  HODLING BTC may yield a big speculative profit, or maybe not!  

Disclosure: I own both.  I also own "physical CA$H", which may very well be a great short-term defense against OTHER COUNTRIES messing up worse than the USA.

EDIT: I would add silver to the equation too, noting that the gold/silver ratio price is presently just over 80, when over time it has averaged about 15. I'm going to watch with interest just what unravels re PMs and BTC over the following weeks and months. As and when any of them move to a perceived bottom I will buy - currently having only a little of the former at the highest price point of my taper strategum.

Here in the UK, a Brexit (as things stand, with constant scare tactics from Cameron and the mainstream media, it's looking less likely, barring any ISIS attacks, financial or EU refugee calamaties before June) could significalntly effect the value of the £ against the $ - I think Armstrong mentioned a while back he reckoned the £ could achieve parity or below with the $.

[TPTB_need_war]

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

I'm not risking trading. I'm long term. What you say could be correct, but even if Gold does go lower in the medium term, BTC might not be affected. We saw the past several years where Gold was in a bear market and BTC was booming.

Mmm-hmm.  Prices of BTC and gold do seem to move relatively independently of each other.

Incorrect. They are highly correlated (if a smoothing filter is employed) since 2013. Gold had a rise recently and so did Bitcoin.

Btw, MA has totally debunked the idea that the historic gold/silver ration is 15.

Come on guys, stop being emotional and study the data.

[TPTB_need_war]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Seems quite plausible that Bitcoin will implode this coming March 13/14 or shortly thereafter, and when Bitcoin gets a flu, the altcoins go no bid and collapse.

Still, the digital currency experienced sharp gyrations this week amid news that the network was exceeding its capacity for transactions, a development that resulted in users paying sometimes substantially higher fees.

Bear in mind this revelation (click the link in the quote below) which I had predicted as well was the motivation for 51% attack of the Chinese mining cartel which blocked any block size increase:

If we don't have decentralization, then the entire plot has been lost.

Do you need an example? Here you go (remember the Chinese mining cartel allegedly controls 65% of the Bitcoin hashrate):

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48nnaw/the_truth_comes_out_core_devs_have_convinced/

[OROBTC]

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

I'm not risking trading. I'm long term. What you say could be correct, but even if Gold does go lower in the medium term, BTC might not be affected. We saw the past several years where Gold was in a bear market and BTC was booming.

Mmm-hmm.  Prices of BTC and gold do seem to move relatively independently of each other.

Incorrect. They are highly correlated (if a smoothing filter is employed) since 2013. Gold had a rise recently and so did Bitcoin.

Btw, MA has totally debunked the idea that the historic gold/silver ration is 15.

Come on guys, stop being emotional and study the data.

I still submit that BTC and gold have somewhat different price movements, especially given more time than since 2013.  I suspect (guess) that BTC and gold prices will be less correlated before too long.  They are different enough that they count as independent investments for me, I HODL both.

*   *   *

I agree re the Au:Ag price ratio of +/- 15 is not too meaningful.  This has indeed varied quite a bit in history.  You already know, TPTB, that our pal FOFOA is predicting a YUGE Au:Ag ratio.....  Should this happen along those lines, that "historical ratio" will then become worth its real value: NOT MUCH.  

I would say similar for platinum, my sentimental favorite.

[TPTB_need_war]

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.

The dead-cat bounce in gold is because the USA Fed did not aggressively raise rates yet, which enabled Europe and China to buy a little bit of time. This also enabled Bitcoin (and the altcoins) to get a bid. But this is a dead-cat bounce and  the final lows for the speculative assets is coming. Again I am reasonably confident of < $850 for gold and < $100 for Bitcoin. I am thinking perhaps $50 for Bitcoin, but it is also possible the block size issue and Blockstream totally fuck up Bitcoin and we sell off to $10. I think perhaps that is extreme, but I don't place it outside the realm of possibility. Again I don't know if this selloff will be in March or later in the summer, but in either case I am reasonably confident it is coming.

So for the interim time the safe parking asset is the US dollar. After gold bottoms, then gold is a go to asset but as a diversification not as a core holding. As for crypto currency, it is too murky to know yet, because currently it is difficult to know whether Bitcoin is heading for total failure (slap yourself, it is possible <--- click this link!).

For a core holding, appears the US stock market once the current correction has bottomed. Expect a double by roughly 2017.9.

For a speculative holding, find the best crypto currency after the washout.

For a core holding after 2017.9, purchase a Bible and pray. Seriously, nothing may survive. Even if you buy real estate in Asia, you may not be able to hang on to it, as the governments are going to cooperate to make sure we white guys pay all our taxes back home (don't expect the European policy of not taxes expatriates to hold). I guess try to diversify and put things in other people's name? Bury gold? (I don't like these ideas)

If you want more information, I suggest reading the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum. There I have defended against the trolls such as sloanf, and I think explained why Martin Armstrong's record is superior to any other analyst on earth. You might be skeptical of his ability to predict the macro economic future by tracking 1000s of financial and other variables along with his $1 billion of historic data in an A.I. computer model that employs multi-dimensional cycle correlation.

Edit: if you think Asia will be a great place to migrate too, read this:

Btw, even I have been coming to and living in the Philippines perhaps half of my years on earth, I am still shocked how rampant the corruption is here. It is built into the culture that the people use each other. I guess it comes from the Spanish occupation and perhaps even before that the tribes probably captured each other for slavery. For example, the brother of my ex holds a tourist visa to go Brunei (will look around for a job), but he doesn't want to fly directly from Manila to Brunei, because the immigration officials are likely to deny his exit if he doesn't bribe them. Whereas, if he flies from Manila to Hong Kong they may not suspect he is seeking employment abroad and thus may not extort him.