This thread was an interesting read, a lot of opinion and lot of mud slinging, a crapton of outright lies and a fair amount of truth.
Since most of this thread is "he said/she said" or completely made up shit to cause trolling let's start off with FACTS, and these are VERIFIABLE FACTS.
1) BFL is shipping product - FACT.
2) Different product lines are shipping at different rates and are at different paid dates - FACT
3) BFL has had over 72,000 orders placed - FACT.
Sure, some orders have been cancelled, some refunds have been paid, but there's no number here. We can acknowledge it happened, but not to what extent.
Let's step into fantasy a second... (For this I will be using some infor from
http://bfl.ptz.ro/ to back up my points) Let's pretend there are 72,000 total orders, that every order was for 1 item, that no refunds have been made and go from there. We know as fact BFL is shipping Jalapenos that were paid for on Dec 5, 2012. ~14000 orders were made by Dec 5th, 14/72 = almost 20% of Jalapenos ordered have been shipped (this IS still fantasy remember). LS are listed at Sept 10. ~8000 orders were made by Sept 10, 8/72 = 11.11%. Singles are up to June 30th, ~2700 orders were made by June 30, so 2.7/72 = 3.75% and lastly we have Minirigs at pay date July 21, ~3700 orders had been made by 7/21, 3.7/72 = 5.1%. I think it's safe to say this numbers are pure fantasy and makes it look like BFL needs another year to catch up.
Let's step into a different fantasy, but with some thought put into it. It's June 2012, people are using FPGAs and GPUs, Network hash is about 12TH and people running 10GH are making over 6BTC a day. They've invested 10's of thousands of dollars into their GPUs and are seeing $800-$900 a month in returns. Mid June an announcement is made... ASIC preorders will open up on June 23rd. The money spent on a 10GH GPU farm would buy almost 400GH of ASICs. June 23rd rolls around, pre-orders open up and in less than a day 2000 people have placed orders. Investors hoping to have the 1st units buy 20-50 units. GPU farmers buy 5-10 apiece. The average joe buys 1-2. Lots os variable here, but let's pretend the average 1st day order is for 15 units of something. Since it's still fantasy we'll say the remaining 70,000 orders were for 1 unit each. Gives us some nice round numbers. 2k*15 + 70K*1 = 100k total units. Let's look again at Jalapenos... Dec 5 is ~14,000 orders, but instead of 20% of the way through the order book, we're now at 42%!! The Sept 10 orders of LS' with ~8000 now is 36% of orders!!! The 2700 orders by June 30th make singles at 30.7%!!! and those ~3700 orders by July 21 = 31.7%...... wait.... only 1/3 or mini's have shipped... 10.6%
Still, Jalapenos will be completed in under a month, LS and Singles may take 3 months and MINIs may take 4-5 months. BUT! THEY HAVEN"T RAMPED UP PRODUCTION YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ahh, I love that fantasy, it makes me all warm inside.
How about we try for something that MAY be fantasy but is a hellova lot closer to the truth.
We need some facts again...
1) Between Avalon and ASICMiner it is estimated they have added 160-180TH to the network. Let's call it 180.
2) Current Network hash as seen
http://blockchain.info/stats has been between 450TH and 500TH during the 8 hours I've looked at it today. We'll say 450.
3) There's 270TH of missing network hash out there.
Where has this come from?
Let's go back to
http://bfl.ptz.ro/ a second. Using the 4951 orders listed on the site as a reference along with the 3575 Jalas, 1230 LS', 2678 Singles and 185 minis listed on it, we can infer on average 2 of every 3 orders has a jalapeno. 1 of every 4 has an LS, 5 out of every 9 has a single and 1 of every 27 has a mini. I realize this is not 100% accurate information, but it should be fairly good for an estimate. So using this and what we know about #'s of orders made let's step into a more realistic fantasy:
Jalapenos are on 12/05 ship date and we know that ~14000 orders were made by 12/05
Little Singles are on 09/10 ship date and we know that ~8000 orders were made by 9/10
Singles are on 6/30 ship date and we know ~2700 orders were made by 6/30
Minirigs are on 7/21 ship date for 1/3 and we know ~3700 orders were made by 7/21
This gives us an estimated 10k Jalapenos, 2k littie Singles, 1.5k Singles and 140 minis.
10K * 5 = 10TH... 2k * 30 = 60TH... 1.5k * 60 = 90TH... 140 * 500 (only 1/3 has shipped) = 70TH...
50TH of jala + 60TH of LS + 90TH of Singles + 70TH of minis gives you 270TH. That looks a lot like our missing amount of network increase.
Coincidence? You decide.
