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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 507867 times)
billyjoeallen
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June 07, 2011, 12:26:25 PM
 #101

There's nothing wrong with borrowing to speculate in bitcoin as long as you are prepared to possibly pay off a dead horse. There is nothing wrong with speculation as it provides liquidity to the market. Speculators provide information and get paid for it when it is good information. They lose money when they provide bad information.

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LuciusDeBeers
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August 02, 2012, 11:22:23 PM
 #102

lol I can't believe they were talking like this in 2011.

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August 02, 2012, 11:46:53 PM
 #103

lol I can't believe they were talking like this in 2011.

Sometimes raising a dead thread is a great idea...very good read.

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tvbcof
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August 03, 2012, 05:05:16 AM
 #104

lol I can't believe they were talking like this in 2011.

Read a page or two.  They (including myself to some extent) are talking about it again.  The likelihood of such a thing as $1000's/BTC, while still remote, seems to me to be stronger than it has ever been by virtue of (among several things) another year of demonstrated core stability of the solution.


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August 03, 2012, 05:53:59 AM
 #105

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

Nah, man. Before BTC hits $1000 price, the USA will get rid of all bitcoins. Don't be so naive.
BrannigansLaw
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August 03, 2012, 07:34:49 AM
 #106

Bitcoin is going to crash to a couple dollars again a few time as the high rollers realise they are in competition to cash out first. Not cash out completely mind you, just so much to make them a few million in 'stable' money.

proudhon
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August 03, 2012, 09:50:05 AM
 #107

Bitcoin is going to crash to a couple dollars again a few time as the high rollers realise they are in competition to cash out first. Not cash out completely mind you, just so much to make them a few million in 'stable' money.

This.  Assuming bitcoin ever does become a stable currency, it's going to take decades because all the big profit seekers will, at some point, feel compelled to sell their coins and take cash profit and, thus, more widely distribute their coins.  I'm still holding to the prediction under the dancing bear.  We'll see single digits plenty in the years to come.
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August 03, 2012, 02:54:24 PM
 #108

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

Nah, man. Before BTC hits $1000 price, the USA will get rid of all bitcoins. Don't be so naive.

The USA cant even get rid of a few guys hiding in the desert.

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August 03, 2012, 03:09:48 PM
 #109

Threads like this are one of the reasons so many regular people turned away from Bitcoin. No single person has done more damage to Bitcoin than that fucktard Atlas.
kiba
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August 03, 2012, 03:27:12 PM
 #110

Threads like this are one of the reasons so many regular people turned away from Bitcoin. No single person has done more damage to Bitcoin than that fucktard Atlas.

O RLY?

Where the empirical evidence, yo?

BadBear
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August 03, 2012, 03:42:28 PM
 #111

Threads like this are one of the reasons so many regular people turned away from Bitcoin. No single person has done more damage to Bitcoin than that fucktard Atlas.

O RLY?

Where the empirical evidence, yo?

God, I was gonna link to his post history as a joke, but so many accounts where would I start.

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August 03, 2012, 03:45:10 PM
 #112

Threads like this are one of the reasons so many regular people turned away from Bitcoin. No single person has done more damage to Bitcoin than that fucktard Atlas.

Atlas had very little impact on my perception of Bitcoin.

OTOH, Atlas had a fair amount of impact on my perception of Libertarians...mostly in reinforcing my perception of the core persona to which such philosophies tend to appeal.

As I've mentioned, I've enough contact with Libertarians, hard-core religious people, and so forth to understand that many thoroughly decent people subscribe to various belief patterns so it's wrong-thinking (and wrong) to make assumptions about specific individuals based on labels such as these.


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August 03, 2012, 04:21:22 PM
 #113

I wrote the article this thread is based on. Although I've taken my website down, you can see a copy of the article here:

http://themonetaryfuture.blogspot.com/2011/06/bitcoin-is-economic-singularity.html

I was obviously wrong about some of the predictions, particularly the timing. The exponential growth of bitcoin stopped shortly after I wrote the article. At this point, I'd say it is very unlikely bitcoin is going to be the world's money in a mere two years.

I was also wrong to suggest that people should take out loans to buy bitcoin. Although I think the long-term trend in the price of bitcoin is still up, I clearly underestimated the probability of a significant crash before it reaches new highs. Shortly after I wrote the article, bitcoin shot up to $30, but then eventually dropped down to $2. I felt a lot of pain at the $2 mark.

However, I still stand by some of the basic predictions of my article, although have learned to be a lot more cautious about predicting timing. Consider the following facts:

* Bitcoin is what it claims to be. A secure, open-source, decentralized digital currency with a limited supply.
* The economic properties of bitcoin are ideal. (In particular, the limited supply, pseudonymity, divisibility, and market-based transaction fee price setting.)
* The technical properties of bitcoin are either ideal or good enough to be a world currency, with two possible exceptions. 1) The cryptographic tools that bitcoin uses (especially SHA256 and RSA) may be found to have weaknesses, which would enable attacks on bitcoin that would depend on the nature of the weaknesses. 2) Quantum computers may be able to crack RSA (but this problem is easily solved, even without changing the cryptography of bitcoin at all, by keeping balances in each address low enough that the effort to crack the key, even with a quantum computer, is not worth it).
* There are no other players in bitcoin's domain, and there probably won't be, because they would have to compete with the momentum that bitcoin has.
* Bitcoin fills niche markets, like online gambling, porn, drugs, and speculation that support its growth from zero to something sizeable.
* Bitcoin is economically superior to all commodity moneys because it is virtual. (Don't give me the "intrinsic value" argument... the intrinsic value of gold is merely what got it off the ground. Today, the price of gold, like the price of bitcoin, has almost nothing to do with its "intrinsic value".)
* Bitcoin is superior to all fiat currencies because your value is not constantly snatched by the central bank and well-connected elites.

Because bitcoin is superior to all other moneys, and because it cannot be competed with, the market will eventually choose it as the world's one money. Exactly when will it be that your grandmother buys her groceries with bitcoin? I don't know. But it will happen. My only reservation about this is the hypothetical weaknesses in bitcoin's cryptography. My position here is that by the time any weaknesses are found (should that ever happen), bitcoin will be so popular, and so many people will have an incentive to keep it going, that everything will be done to convert bitcoin to a new protocol while preserving existing balances. Once we convert to quantum bitcoin, there will no longer be any question over whether it is possible to break the cryptography. It will be cryptographically perfect.
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August 03, 2012, 05:03:49 PM
 #114

For those using dollars, it is already past time to be using the weakening dollar to try to trade in BTC. It is time to invest in a miner and go for it.  Smiley
streblo
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August 03, 2012, 05:44:22 PM
 #115

One correction Bitcoin does not utilize RSA.  
It uses SHA-256, RIPEMD-160, and ECDSA (specifically the secp256k1 curve).  The satoshi wallet also uses AES but that is client side (encrypted private keys) and not part of the protocol.

Bitcoin by nature will never employ quantum cryptography.  Quantum cryptography requires a direct (no relay) communication link in order to exploit the quantum properties which make it possible.  By direct I mean something like a single fiber optic cable (without any amps, relays, or switches) between a single sender and a single receiver.
You are correct that bitcoin likely won't use quantum cryptography, per se. On the other hand, mining, and more generally brute-forcing the inverse of a hash, can be accomplished using quantum computing, namely Shor's algorithm.
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August 03, 2012, 05:59:42 PM
 #116

One correction Bitcoin does not utilize RSA.  
It uses SHA-256, RIPEMD-160, and ECDSA (specifically the secp256k1 curve).  The satoshi wallet also uses SHA-512 & AES but that is client side (encrypted private keys) and not part of the protocol.

Bitcoin by nature will never employ quantum cryptography.  Quantum cryptography requires a direct (no relay) communication link in order to exploit the quantum properties which make it possible.  By direct I mean something like a single fiber optic cable (without any amps, relays, or switches) between a single sender and a single receiver.

Thanks for the correction. I must have misremembered.
finkleshnorts
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August 03, 2012, 06:03:06 PM
 #117

Bitcoin is going to crash to a couple dollars again a few time as the high rollers realise they are in competition to cash out first. Not cash out completely mind you, just so much to make them a few million in 'stable' money.

This.  Assuming bitcoin ever does become a stable currency, it's going to take decades because all the big profit seekers will, at some point, feel compelled to sell their coins and take cash profit and, thus, more widely distribute their coins.  I'm still holding to the prediction under the dancing bear.  We'll see single digits plenty in the years to come.

I completely agree with proudhon. I'm not buying any more bitcoins until this nonsense has calmed down. Speculation and get-rich-quickers are driving this rally. People already into bitcoin are just buying more of it, mindlessly.
TTBit
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August 03, 2012, 06:06:20 PM
 #118

Bitcoin is going to crash to a couple dollars again a few time as the high rollers realise they are in competition to cash out first. Not cash out completely mind you, just so much to make them a few million in 'stable' money.

This.  Assuming bitcoin ever does become a stable currency, it's going to take decades because all the big profit seekers will, at some point, feel compelled to sell their coins and take cash profit and, thus, more widely distribute their coins.  I'm still holding to the prediction under the dancing bear.  We'll see single digits plenty in the years to come.

I completely agree with proudhon. I'm not buying any more bitcoins until this nonsense has calmed down. Speculation and get-rich-quickers are driving this rally. People already into bitcoin are just buying more of it, mindlessly.

But what if it doesn't calm down until $80/btc after shooting to $150/btc?

good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment
BrightAnarchist
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August 03, 2012, 06:07:22 PM
 #119

Things this revolutionary do not come along very often, like only every 300 years to a millenia in the past have we had changes in philosophical and technical aspects of the medium of exchange.

Great quote!
ineededausername
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August 03, 2012, 06:26:43 PM
 #120

Bitcoin is going to crash to a couple dollars again a few time as the high rollers realise they are in competition to cash out first. Not cash out completely mind you, just so much to make them a few million in 'stable' money.

This.  Assuming bitcoin ever does become a stable currency, it's going to take decades because all the big profit seekers will, at some point, feel compelled to sell their coins and take cash profit and, thus, more widely distribute their coins.  I'm still holding to the prediction under the dancing bear.  We'll see single digits plenty in the years to come.

I completely agree with proudhon. I'm not buying any more bitcoins until this nonsense has calmed down. Speculation and get-rich-quickers are driving this rally. People already into bitcoin are just buying more of it, mindlessly.

Speculation and get-rich-quickers drive crashes, too.  Ultimately, the market value of a coin is the only value of a coin.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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