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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 508388 times)
Melbustus
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April 17, 2014, 02:38:33 AM
 #1081

...Most people in the world will never even own 1 coin!...

As the prices rises (like the last couple days) people very quickly remember how limited the supply of BTC is.
Buy now, before only the wealthy elite can afford them.   Cheesy


The thought never leaves my mind.


Yeah, bitcoin's price dynamics are reversed. Usually assets have stair-step upward motions and then brutal cliffs on the downside. Bitcoin is the reverse. The rises on even just 1yr time scales are vertical, and the falls are stairways down... Likely due to the fact that the 21M supply cap is staring people in the face when bitcoin is hot, and on the flipside, enough people never lose sight of that, preventing the falls from being as dramatic.

Bitcoin really redefines "panic buy".

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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SlipperySlope
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April 17, 2014, 03:31:53 AM
 #1082

...Most people in the world will never even own 1 coin!...

As the prices rises (like the last couple days) people very quickly remember how limited the supply of BTC is.
Buy now, before only the wealthy elite can afford them.   Cheesy

Furthermore, there are corporate entities holding lots of working capital and otherwise spare cash that will get allocated into Bitcoin - which can readily be spent or sold for fiat. Apple, while not currently friendly to bitcoin, has $150 billion in cash and short term securities, that I believe would be better allocated into bitcoin as a deflating store of value. These are the sort of late-adopting entities that will push bitcoin values into what only can be dreamed about today.
Arriemoller
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April 17, 2014, 03:53:34 AM
 #1083

I think there is a pattern, it could be a coincidence, but I'm using it for now. Remember, everything I write is very approximative.

It seems that bitcoin has a seven month cycle from mega bump to mega bump, it also appears to have a super dip about four months from the mega bump, and this super dip seems to be the start of the coming mega bump, with a slow rise the two first months and a steep rise the last month. If this hypothesis of mine is correct we are now leaving this cycles super dip and the next mega bump peek should be around the end of June or beginning of July.

It also seems that the price at the top of the bump is the same as the price in the dip plus a zero, and it seems to stabilize at about half the peak price until the four month super dip. So if this dip's low was 400 USD the peak should be around 4000 USD and it should stabilize at about 2000 USD until the next super dip.

Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn.      Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen.  Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
BitChick
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April 17, 2014, 04:03:38 AM
 #1084

I think there is a pattern, it could be a coincidence, but I'm using it for now. Remember, everything I write is very approximative.

It seems that bitcoin has a seven month cycle from mega bump to mega bump, it also appears to have a super dip about four months from the mega bump, and this super dip seems to be the start of the coming mega bump, with a slow rise the two first months and a steep rise the last month. If this hypothesis of mine is correct we are now leaving this cycles super dip and the next mega bump peek should be around the end of June or beginning of July.

It also seems that the price at the top of the bump is the same as the price in the dip plus a zero, and it seems to stabilize at about half the peak price until the four month super dip. So if this dip's low was 400 USD the peak should be around 4000 USD and it should stabilize at about 2000 USD until the next super dip.

That sounds about right. Smiley

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Arriemoller
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April 17, 2014, 04:55:59 AM
 #1085

Does this mean that I am the first to identify a pattern?
If so, I wish it to henceforth be known as "the Möller pattern". You may omit the dots if your keyboard is english.  Wink

Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn.      Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen.  Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
jonald_fyookball
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April 17, 2014, 05:01:41 AM
 #1086

Does this mean that I am the first to identify a pattern?
If so, I wish it to henceforth be known as "the Möller pattern". You may omit the dots if your keyboard is english.  Wink

Enjoy your 15 minutes of fame, Möller (hey that was cool, my iPad let me do the ö...)....
Anyway, um pretty sure the pattern will change to something else.
Bagatell
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April 17, 2014, 06:34:39 AM
 #1087

Does this mean that I am the first to identify a pattern?

Not quite the first  Wink

https://www.tradingview.com/v/3qJCpvjH/

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Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model



railzand
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April 17, 2014, 06:50:13 AM
 #1088

No, not the first. But for clarity and simplicity of explanation, you win 2 internet stars and a lollipop.

keithers
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April 17, 2014, 07:15:10 AM
 #1089

How can your username be Anonymous ?

I was just going to ask the same thing - is it supposed to be Anonymous as in the hacking group?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg6168673#msg6168673


...Most people in the world will never even own 1 coin!...

As the prices rises (like the last couple days) people very quickly remember how limited the supply of BTC is.
Buy now, before only the wealthy elite can afford them.   Cheesy

Speaking of wealthy, wasnt there a prop bet in the making for BTC Vs. Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock?

I thought I heard of a few people putting up BTC against 1 share of the stock for earnings (with the winner taking it)

Yes there was a thread about that ~3 weeks ago, when Warren Buffet was saying bad things about BTC (based on lack of understanding)
Our friend from Primedice (does everyone know Primedice.com is the best BTC gaming site?) was considering betting 300 BTC.
I hope he wins if the bet is made. Smiley




I would put some side action on the BTC side. Berkshire is pretty stable, the amount it moves in a few weeks is like a few hours in BTC. It would all depend on how long the bet lasted.
Deviant1
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April 17, 2014, 10:26:16 AM
 #1090

How can your username be Anonymous ?

I was just going to ask the same thing - is it supposed to be Anonymous as in the hacking group?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg6168673#msg6168673


That is AWESOME! This thread is epic, it needs to continue on forever.
jonald_fyookball
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April 17, 2014, 12:44:17 PM
 #1091

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
bitpop
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April 17, 2014, 12:48:06 PM
 #1092

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

No, a wealthy elite

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Lohoris
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April 17, 2014, 01:14:35 PM
 #1093

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.

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jonald_fyookball
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April 17, 2014, 01:23:40 PM
 #1094

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


Well then how many do I need?
bryant.coleman
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The Emperor


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April 17, 2014, 01:28:23 PM
 #1095

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

Yes. But you might have to wait for one or two decades. In 5 years, we got from $0.0008 to $500. Who knows? In another 10 or 20 years, we might reach $1,000,000.  Be patient, collect as many coins as you can... and hope for the best.  Grin

Note: And most importantly, keep your wallet secure and take regular backups.

boumalo
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April 17, 2014, 01:44:09 PM
 #1096

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?

Yes. But you might have to wait for one or two decades. In 5 years, we got from $0.0008 to $500. Who knows? In another 10 or 20 years, we might reach $1,000,000.  Be patient, collect as many coins as you can... and hope for the best.  Grin

Note: And most importantly, keep your wallet secure and take regular backups.

Or use a paper wallet

SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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April 17, 2014, 02:20:14 PM
 #1097

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.
RodeoX
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April 17, 2014, 03:02:06 PM
 #1098

... and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.
...
I wonder about that. Your model does follow adoption of products for example. You may be right. But bitcoin has some properties that are more comparable to something like domain names. In that case the demand seems to grow based on increasing uses for the internet protocol. It's going to be interesting to look back 10 years from now.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
Arriemoller
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April 17, 2014, 04:28:02 PM
 #1099


I stand corrected.

Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn.      Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen.  Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
Arriemoller
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April 17, 2014, 04:28:56 PM
 #1100

No, not the first. But for clarity and simplicity of explanation, you win 2 internet stars and a lollipop.

And thank you for the stars and the lollipop.

Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn.      Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen.  Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
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