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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 579023 times)
SlipperySlope
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April 17, 2014, 05:28:34 PM
 #1101

... and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.
...
I wonder about that. Your model does follow adoption of products for example. You may be right. But bitcoin has some properties that are more comparable to something like domain names. In that case the demand seems to grow based on increasing uses for the internet protocol. It's going to be interesting to look back 10 years from now.

Peter_R has discovered evidence that Metcalfe's Law applies to Bitcoin - which I comment about here . . .

Metcalfe's Law Explains 10x Price Growth Vs. 3.2x Transaction Quantity Growth
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April 17, 2014, 06:06:20 PM
 #1102


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?

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April 17, 2014, 06:24:33 PM
 #1103


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?



Why you gotta post this?  Now, we're definitely going to zero now.   Cry

Nah, I don't buy it!  All this means is cheap Bitcoins to buy.  BUY BUY BUY!
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April 17, 2014, 06:32:44 PM
 #1104


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.


You're on slippery slope buddy


wut abt this guys?



Why you gotta post this?  Now, we're definitely going to zero now.   Cry

Nah, I don't buy it!  All this means is cheap Bitcoins to buy.  BUY BUY BUY!

You can draw 1000 lines like that since the beginning of Bitcoin

We are having a healthy correction fuelled by China's ban/not ban and mtgox

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Stephen Reed


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April 17, 2014, 06:33:39 PM
 #1105

. . . To The Grave

This is why this classic thread is classic. Some folks eventually read all the posts from start to end. I did.

I believe this particular meme is better posted during the mania phase of a bubble, in which prices typically double in a week.
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April 17, 2014, 06:39:17 PM
 #1106

Wut about this?



or this?







people love drawing lines out of their ass... but who can i trust  Roll Eyes Huh
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April 17, 2014, 07:29:56 PM
 #1107

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.


Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption?

 In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases.   








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April 17, 2014, 07:35:38 PM
 #1108

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


In contrast to mass conventional wisdom, I believe that owning a single bitcoin will rapidly become impossible for the average person in a developed country. Prices have been increasing on average 10x per year, and according to a logistic model of bitcoin adoption that I maintain, that astounding rate of increase will continue year by year until the half way point of adoption, at which the rate of increase rapidly diminishes.

Anyone here should have some idea how far, far away we are from the half way point of adoption. Assume some portion of transacting entities, i.e. persons, businesses and governments, will ever use bitcoin - and some portion never will. How many years will it take for the former portion to have half its members adopt bitcoin?

I believe the average person in this world having a single bitcoin will be among the wealthy persons in their respective city. It is difficult to imagine such a situation given the current price of a bitcoin - yet the great temptation will be to spend it too soon, i.e. within four years of purchase.


Who's to say that we have NOT already reached the half way point of adoption?

 In the event that bitcoin remains somewhat of a niche and somewhat marginalized by various sabotage attempts, then bitcoin will NOT be able to maintain 10X annual increases.  









How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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April 17, 2014, 07:46:40 PM
 #1109

I don't think we can be at the halfway point of Bitcoin's life, he/she's only turned 5 years old recently:




Somehow I think ole Bitcoin is going to outlive each and everyone of us.
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April 17, 2014, 07:54:11 PM
 #1110

How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic
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April 17, 2014, 08:05:03 PM
 #1111

How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic


I think that's what I am saying too. 

Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX).  So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way.

I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin.  NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption......   But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. 

Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... 

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April 17, 2014, 11:19:33 PM
 #1112

. . . To The Grave

This is why this classic thread is classic. Some folks eventually read all the posts from start to end. I did.

I believe this particular meme is better posted during the mania phase of a bubble, in which prices typically double in a week.

I think it has mostly been revived during times of extremis which means it is actually an excellent indicator of turning points ... dyodd.

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April 17, 2014, 11:47:52 PM
 #1113

 








[/quote]

How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.
[/quote]


The marijuana vending machine might steepen the learning curve.

http://www.coindesk.com/new-colorado-marijuana-vending-machines-accept-bitcoin/

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April 18, 2014, 12:03:00 AM
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How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic


I think that's what I am saying too. 

Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX).  So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way.

I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin.  NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption......   But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. 

Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... 

I think a lot of the great things that will happen within the Bitcoin protocole are being thought of or created at the moment but it takes some time; among the genius and entrepreneurs that decided to leave everything and go create a Bitcoin business in 2013 some will succeed in 2014, some later on or they will fail and try to create something new that will add value to Bitcoin

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April 18, 2014, 12:39:08 AM
 #1115

How can your username be Anonymous ?

It is anonymous because the original poster is gone.  When Atlas was banned and deleted, it switched to "Anonymous".
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Trumpin it up for a bit


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April 18, 2014, 06:03:07 AM
 #1116

How can your username be Anonymous ?

It is anonymous because the original poster is gone.  When Atlas was banned and deleted, it switched to "Anonymous".

Really this is an Atlas thread what did he do to earn the anon title though even now the largest trolls get kicked but not a complete wipe
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April 18, 2014, 06:24:58 AM
 #1117

How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic


I think that's what I am saying too. 

Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX).  So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way.

I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin.  NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption......   But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. 

Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... 

I think a lot of the great things that will happen within the Bitcoin protocole are being thought of or created at the moment but it takes some time; among the genius and entrepreneurs that decided to leave everything and go create a Bitcoin business in 2013 some will succeed in 2014, some later on or they will fail and try to create something new that will add value to Bitcoin

I agree that some of the recent ideas about the side chain (s) are very interesting and promising for bitcoin to be able to acquire and/or coopt nearly any and all of the features of competitive cryptos.

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April 18, 2014, 07:05:46 AM
 #1118

How can your username be Anonymous ?

It is anonymous because the original poster is gone.  When Atlas was banned and deleted, it switched to "Anonymous".

Really this is an Atlas thread what did he do to earn the anon title though even now the largest trolls get kicked but not a complete wipe

Atlas shrugged

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Hello World!!!


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April 18, 2014, 10:45:22 AM
 #1119

Let's see when Bitcoin price reaches $10,000+

Price Poll: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555609
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April 18, 2014, 10:52:42 AM
 #1120

Let's see when Bitcoin price reaches $10,000+

The the people who bought now will be called early adopters with an unfair advantage.
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