Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

And this is choice from my past pic. 1310 still holds though due to abnormal number of supports located at this point.

However I didn't changed my mind of nearest revisiting 1240. I said there both ways lead to down.

Especially current. Coz of my favourite shampoo.

[lucif]

My current view on situation Not a real trend so far.

[lucif]

And some basic EW of this correction off the 1380 top.

[adamstgBit]

And some basic EW of this correction off the 1380 top.

I agree with this, But I'd bet the downward slide is going to take weeks if not months, and I guess its kinda risky to try an profit off this move, because a good piece of news could get the price rocketing a dollar again.

[lucif]

From my modest expirence, TA precedes news.

[adamstgBit]

From my modest expirence, TA precedes news.

WP news was fallowed by 3 rallies...

It would seem on this market their isn't much insider trading.

probably because it decentralized no one person know what everyone else is working on

[lucif]

We are all part of something big called SYSTEM. Every system participant has unconscious knowledge about whole system status and direction. And plays his unique role in futher system evalution. Or degradation. Both are just directions. The main point is move.

[lucif]

About wordpress. Such news were appeared when market already made decision. Middle BB already had broken to upside. And middle BB curve already represented direction change.

Wordpress news just accelerated this move.

This is kinda mystery, but its true. News are just another sort of indicators confirming or declining figures drawn by market.

[RyNinDaCleM]

That's the thing about news. It is perceived differently depending on market conditions. In a bear market, good news looks less good, but still slows the decline while bad news looks extra bad, accelerating it. In a bull market, good news looks great, accelerating the rise and bad news is "meh" and only slows it a little. I know, I know, before you all say it, the Pirate default was serious news and was at a top waiting to happen so it pushed it over the edge.

[lucif]

Sure move to 1540 top was obviously a bubble, which obviously needed to bump. We waited for a correction, we knew about correction. And pirate was a perfect trigger. But just a trigger, when market TIs screamed "Are you all nuts here?!". And market turned on this trigger. Pirate and all of us are just puppets

[pent]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKJRPPA6NBQ

[smoothie]

This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie

[cypherdoc]

This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie

that'd be an example of #2 and #5:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131984.msg1420130#msg1420130

[SkRRJyTC]

This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie

that'd be an example of #2 and #5:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131984.msg1420130#msg1420130

You know Cypher, ignoring him is an option too.

[smoothie]

This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie

that'd be an example of #2 and #5:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131984.msg1420130#msg1420130

You know Cypher, ignoring him is an option too.

LOL that would take all the fun out of it though. 

[smoothie]

This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie

that'd be an example of #2 and #5:  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131984.msg1420130#msg1420130

  oh please teach others my ways....lol

[lucif]

Some thoughts about near future. I dont understand why do ppl so happy for now

Bitcoin stands on border of great changes with reward halving and ASIC arriving.

Reward halving complete. It almost kicked out GPU miners. They still have hope for alternative chains though, but network already became unstable coz they jumping from one chain to another with more than 51% power.

My variants for next events:
1. ASIC devel complete. Owners will not sell em to community and will mine by themselves. With more than 51% power
danger: 51% attack
2. ASIC devel complete. Owners will sell em to community and network power start fluctuate as hell.
danger: unstable network
3. ASIC is a scam. Scammed miners will leave this business with great selloff.
danger: selloff
4. Gavin looking on all of that shit and changing hashing algo
danger: chain fork


Anyone has happy point?

[lebing]

Lucif, you might get your precious coins back, but it will likely take a few weeks/ months.

[ElectricMucus]

My variants for next events:
1. ASIC devel complete. Owners will not sell em to community and will mine by themselves. With more than 51% power
danger: 51% attack
2. ASIC devel complete. Owners will sell em to community and network power start fluctuate as hell.
danger: unstable network
3. ASIC is a scam. Scammed miners will leave this business with great selloff.
danger: selloff
4. Gavin looking on all of that shit and changing hashing algo
danger: chain fork


Anyone has happy point?

1. Very unlikely to happen, if they actually are able to produce working hardware they would be much better off continuing to do so.
2. Not going to happen, GPU miners will quit after they start become unprofitable not before it, hashrate would only go up.
3. Sure why not? But I'd not be too concerned with a selloff but with a permanent image problem alas a long grind down.
4. That would be stupid and even discussing it is stupid, overall just a stupid point.

[lucif]

Another portion of pessimism

1. Bitcoin has a bottleneck with unconfirmed transactions network buffer, firstly pointed by Microsoft research team. It can easily paralyze network on high load
2. Bitcoin has a bottleneck  with its database size and sync process. Vanilla client is almost unusable for common non-technicial Internet user.

If problem 2 may be solved by futher Electrum server development and deployment of such scheme, the problem 1 persists.