Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Maybe lay off trading so much Mat, stop trying to be too clever?

Just HODL for a bit & sell when we go up, simple but effective, no?

[MatTheCat]

Ok..so my original upside targets were hit, bang on. So now for a little bit of retracing.

I shall not be taking this trade myself, as I have banned myself from shorting against MAs with hard ons.....So, I since have already discovered that doing the opposite of what I think is by no means te key to success in this game, but doing the oppsoite of what I actually do seems pretty fucking promising, because I amn't doing this:





Perhaps you all should!?

[MatTheCat]

Maybe lay off trading so much Mat, stop trying to be too clever?

Just HODL for a bit & sell when we go up, simple but effective, no?

I can't be a 'holder' of Bitcoin, because I have no belief in Bitcoin. This is a money making racket, beset with technical and poltical problems. This may pump enormously from here, without looking much back past the recent $520 bottom, who knows, but rest assured, the aim here is to build up as much FOMO buying pressure as possible, at which point, 'they' shall swipe the floor out from underneath Bitcoin, and let the slaughter commence. Bitcoin has been transofrmed into a scam, to enrich a few Chinese dudes. Fuck Bitcoin.

Regard trading, truth be told....I am still a n00b, and learning all the time as I go. What I thought I *knew*, told me that Bitcoin was more like to head up, than down, but Mr Weak Hands here did get shaken out of his original long position, and when it set itself up again...I had the bright idea "Ah-ha, since this seems so obvious to me, it therefore must be the WRONG move! I shall instead paper trade the exact opposite trade, and perhaps I will have discovered that doing the least obvious thing, is the key to results!"

This was what I thought I *knew*, which told me that Bitcoin must surely jump up a bit last night:



All the LTF MAs, leaving a period of choppiness, and coming into unaminous agreement, that a bull trend was on. If I see this shit in conjunction with plent yother indicators suggesting UP, I shall know not to doubt it in future.

[MatTheCat]

This trade looks set for success!




Now remember kids, I just posted this trade. This is just something I believed was going to happen in Bitcoin, BUT, but most crucially, I never took the fkn trade!

I am not stupid. Infact, I am pretty smart. But I do like to piss on my feet, all the fucking time. I have a real talent for it. So it isn't the case that you all should do the opposite of what I say, but simply do the opposite of what I actually do!

Whenever I actually take a trade, I shall be sure to put a big warning sign on it, then you will all know to hunt for contrarian setups.

[r0ach]

At least the title of the thread is correct

[MatTheCat]

At least the title of the thread is correct

Yeah Yeah....wotever.....

I am still a few hundred bucks up DESPITE the massive pump!

(that makes sense doesn't it?)

Anyhow, I am posting too many trades here....half I aint even taking cos they are LTF paper trades and/or experimental trades....

Like this one!





The criteria for this one to succeed however, are in full place....

Still aint taking it though, as MAs are still saying the bull is on.

[r0ach]

You're always trying to do MICRO level trades with your chart zoomed out to MACRO level on top of that, which makes no fucking sense.  Especially when you constantly include data from when Bitcoin was $230.  You might as well keep on zooming the chart out to when Bitcoin was worth 10 cents if you're going that far.  Most of the past data you try to base things on is all irrelevant in present terms.

[Ted E. Bare]

This thread should be titled Cat vs. Roach

[Luthier]

I like this thread but it's getting a little tedious... I can't even tell what trades you're actually taking anymore.  The charts are getting more and more incoherent.  Just because you can draw a line between two points at any given time doesn't make it useful TA.

There's a time for dicking around with nickels and dimes and there's a time to take a medium-term position and maximize profits.  Just zoom out to a weekly time frame and try to identify what situation we're in now.
If you had just bought at $465 like most of us did, when it was abundantly clear that we were breaking up from a massive period of consolidation, then you wouldn't be biting your nails for every $10 swing.  Even at $500 or 3300 CNY would have been a good spot to buy. 

It has nothing to do with believing in Bitcoin, you don't have to.  You just have to be able to identify a money making opportunity on a scale that is rarely seen anywhere.

[MatTheCat]

You're always trying to do MICRO level trades with your chart zoomed out to MACRO level on top of that, which makes no fucking sense.  Especially when you constantly include data from when Bitcoin was $230.  You might as well keep on zooming the chart out to when Bitcoin was worth 10 cents if you're going that far.  Most of the past data you try to base things on is all irrelevant in present terms.

There is method to my madness....

I may be a bit shit just now, but more often than not, I am able to predict the general direction in which Bitcoin is going. Timing good trades, and/or sticking with good trades, is however another matter.

To get results trading, you have to be totally fucking clinical. That is what I am aiming at and I feel that I am getting closer and closer to that. But until the point when I get there, I will continue to get run over by the market....cos doing this shit well, is tough.


Retard permabulls or permabears can easily say UP UP UP, or DOWN, DOWN, DOWN 100% of the time, and get to be right 50% of the time, and in my experience that means both realising the full profit taking potential of your investments come together, and then watching it all evaporate, and then watching your principle go up in smoke as well, before chucking in the towel at the 11th hour.

Learning how to trade markets is a life skill. Right at the moment, am I doing better than the holders? Am I fuck! But in the long run, I will do, and of course TA abilities travel much further than crypto land.

[MatTheCat]

I like this thread but it's getting a little tedious...

Correct, I am spamming this thread with every little notion that comes into my head.....I am gonna cut it out....save the paper trades and experiment trades for log spreadsheet.


But this doesn't count as spam...this is just market observation:


Finex looks like it could rocket, imminently:





But China generally leads Bitcoin, and despite not having yet hit the classic 61.8% RLZ target (a few CNY short), this is looking set for a bit of a retracement right now, so perhaps Finex will have to hold it's horses for a while?

[damnek]

I actually saw this as an opportunity sell a few, because btc pretty much went right where I was hoping it would go. Granted, my position has never been this big before, so it was about time to take some off.

[MatTheCat]

I actually saw this as an opportunity sell a few, because btc pretty much went right where I was hoping it would go. Granted, my position has never been this big before, so it was about time to take some off.

Probably well advised....with that said, I haven't seen the customary Finex FU Short Stop Running blow off top yet....perhaps they have to wait until the shorts start piling up, before those fucking crooks blow Bitcoin's top?

Keep an eye on BTC swaps building on BFXdata.com, but for price to remain buoyant...that will be the giveaway.





Update:

Seems that there aren't many shorts left to squeeze. Done these studies various times and posted them here various times, but here is another example showing that before 'they' pump, they like to get a juicy bundle of shorts to squeeze:



As can be seen here, the short positions pile up, as 'they' engineer bearish market structure into Bitcoin (even daily MAs crossed down), with short positions double topping on the day of the big fucking pump (27th May). At the moment, Shorts are looking very weak, but USD swaps have all piled into longs on this break...

....based on that study, I shall stick my neck out and say that there aint gonna be a blow off top, cos all the weak shorts have already been blown off. Weak longs are next on the list imo.

[r0ach]

Mat is still making moronic posts pretending the price is supposed to be $400 after halving I see, like all we're looking at now is just some spooky, dangerous, and illusionary price that shouldn't exist LOL.  When the fuck are you going to learn Mat?  Have you looked at Bitmain prices on their new 16nm miners released a couple days ago?  They're selling the things with year+ ROI times, so basically with prices in mind of BTC being $1000+.  If you were going to buy a 16nm miner, you would be receiving a massive discount by just buying BTC now instead.  This is another reason BTC is just going to keep going up and up till the spread of the ASIC price vs dollar cost average price of just buying BTC is closer.

[MatTheCat]

Mat is still making moronic posts pretending the price is supposed to be $400 after halving I see, like all we're looking at now is just some spooky, dangerous, and illusionary price that shouldn't exist LOL.  When the fuck are you going to learn Mat?  Have you looked at Bitmain prices on their new 16nm miners released a couple days ago?  They're selling the things with year+ ROI times, so basically with prices in mind of BTC being $1000+.  If you were going to buy a 16nm miner, you would be receiving a massive discount by just buying BTC now instead.  This is another reason BTC is just going to keep going up and up.

We will see.

I would much rather hitch a ride on the BTC pump, getting on and off left, right, and centre, and coming away from it with less than 50% of then potential upside profit that I might have had, had I just bought and held; than having bought in and held, and witnessed the full profit taking potential of my investment only to witness the whole lot go up in smoke, and as I HODL in total fucking denial, then watch my investment plunge into the red.

I have done the latter before, and yes, I did throw in the towel of despair at the bottom (at a substantial loss). It won't be happening again.


I suspect that this BTC pump, will fall well short of many peoples expectations.

Not mine, I 'expect' at some point, to see $800 range....maybe a tag of $1000.....but beyond that!? Forget it. It is all manufactured shit. A pump n dump and nothing more than that. People who don't understand that are gonna get their hearts broke, not to mention their capital decimated.

If there is a Chinese currency crisis or something like that, then who knows where BTC might go...but all the Chinese govenment would have to do to prevent Bitcoin from being a cource of capital leakage, is ban outright...and then what?

[Vahnt]

I think a relatively safe short-term trade is getting in around mid-low 580's and riding to about 600-605 or so. This current upward momentum shows no signs of stopping, the story of the halving soon (whether or not it ends up actually having a fundamental long-term impact, which I personally believe it will) is leading to some degree of panic buying/buying the "rumor" prior to actual halving date.

[sandiman]

An advise to Mat from Wyckoff :

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

Don't trade against your idea as some have stated and you sometimes, just learn the Composite Man operations and you will profit from it.

[zimmah]

I think that after chinese pushed the market last week, it's not the turn of western exchange, probably for the "same" reason (not a devaluation though, but weaknesse of the $)

Let me see if I get this: Chinese purportedly bought BTC due to yuan getting devalued rel. USD ($ too damn strong!)
now the westerners are gonna buy BTC because $ too damn weak?
You must'a been to some expensive universities....

CNY is being devalued on purpose, the Chinese government wants the yuan to be weak because it makes exports more attractive (china relies heavily on exports to make money). Good sold in CNY to countries who use stronger currencies will be cheaper, and therefore more people will import Chinese products, instead of products from for example eastern Europe.

Of course, rich Chinese aren't happy with a weakening CNY because their money will evaporate. They want to spend more (especially if they want to import luxurious goods, which will become more expensive as yuan devalues).

That's why some might cash out into USD. Either directly, or via BTC. Zero reason to be stuck in BTC.
That said, "rich people" don't store their wealth in fiat money. Because it's stupid, that's not what money's for. Rich people who think that keeping their money in a mattress is smart become poor people, with or without 0.5% yuan depreciation.

The dollar can still be weak compared to other currencies though, such as euro and swiss frank.

Devaluation of yuan rel. USD & USD becoming weak rel. yuan are mutually exclusive.
Try logic.

...
From the ETH website:

Ethereum would never be possible without bitcoin—both the technology and the currency—and we see ourselves not as a competing currency but as complementary within the digital ecosystem. Ether is to be treated as "crypto-fuel", a token whose purpose is to pay for computation, and is not intended to be used as or considered a currency, asset, share or anything else.

Can you guys stop it with all the ETH propaganda already?

Of course ETH would never be possible without Bitcoin, just like a Ferrari would not be possible without Grog inventing the wheel. Thanks, Gorg.

bitcoin is both money as well as an asset class, so it's a good investment right now. It's not the same as 'money in the mattress'.

Try reading.

[zimmah]

As can be seen here, the short positions pile up, as 'they' engineer bearish market structure into Bitcoin (even daily MAs crossed down), with short positions double topping on the day of the big fucking pump (27th May). At the moment, Shorts are looking very weak, but USD swaps have all piled into longs on this break...

....based on that study, I shall stick my neck out and say that there aint gonna be a blow off top, cos all the weak shorts have already been blown off. Weak longs are next on the list imo.

I would agree, except there are no leveraged longs to margin either, so why bother?

Shorts were squeezed, now is a better time as any to leave them stranded with their worthless $.

No free rides on the bitcoin train, you need balls of steel and hands of carbon reinforced fiber.

[pariahbit]

I think that after chinese pushed the market last week, it's not the turn of western exchange, probably for the "same" reason (not a devaluation though, but weaknesse of the $)

Let me see if I get this: Chinese purportedly bought BTC due to yuan getting devalued rel. USD ($ too damn strong!)
now the westerners are gonna buy BTC because $ too damn weak?
You must'a been to some expensive universities....

CNY is being devalued on purpose, the Chinese government wants the yuan to be weak because it makes exports more attractive (china relies heavily on exports to make money). Good sold in CNY to countries who use stronger currencies will be cheaper, and therefore more people will import Chinese products, instead of products from for example eastern Europe.

Of course, rich Chinese aren't happy with a weakening CNY because their money will evaporate. They want to spend more (especially if they want to import luxurious goods, which will become more expensive as yuan devalues).

That's why some might cash out into USD. Either directly, or via BTC. Zero reason to be stuck in BTC.
That said, "rich people" don't store their wealth in fiat money. Because it's stupid, that's not what money's for. Rich people who think that keeping their money in a mattress is smart become poor people, with or without 0.5% yuan depreciation.

The dollar can still be weak compared to other currencies though, such as euro and swiss frank.

Devaluation of yuan rel. USD & USD becoming weak rel. yuan are mutually exclusive.
Try logic.

...
From the ETH website:

Ethereum would never be possible without bitcoin—both the technology and the currency—and we see ourselves not as a competing currency but as complementary within the digital ecosystem. Ether is to be treated as "crypto-fuel", a token whose purpose is to pay for computation, and is not intended to be used as or considered a currency, asset, share or anything else.

Can you guys stop it with all the ETH propaganda already?

Of course ETH would never be possible without Bitcoin, just like a Ferrari would not be possible without Grog inventing the wheel. Thanks, Gorg.

bitcoin is both money as well as an asset class, so it's a good investment right now. It's not the same as 'money in the mattress'.

Try reading.

Bitcoin may or may not be a good investment (it's more of a pyramid scheme), but that's not what's being discussed. Fixed your bold tags 4u