Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[Gillette]

Do you still refuse to jump on BTC train Mat?

[oda.krell]

Mat's a valuable asset to this forum. Zero irony there. Solid writing style, reliable source of entertainment (and source of more entertainment in reaction to him), plus the occasional actual market insight that shines through. What's not to like?

I said as much a while ago in a different thread of his: most likely, he'd get better trading results by switching the time scales of his trades, going from what seems to be subdaily to weekly skim-style trades to (weekly, maybe monthly) swing trades. That, and what Kramerc said.

[Wexlike]

This was literally the easiest trade investment I've ever done. I assume we might experience some resistance before the halving. Sell-the-news-stuff. New ATH after a correction to the 5XX$ region. If I would trade currently, I would take some proft in the 820-920 area. Bitcoin tends to overshot resistances by a few points just to scare trader off.

Just an update of my opinion: I just increased my bitcoin stash significantly. (Let's say All In )

I did it not because of any TA pattern or anything close, but because of fundamentals. I am planning to hold my coins now until they are tax-free. (>1 year)

With the halving coming, the recent panama paper leaks and the coming Greece+IMF closed-door default deal I can see a crazy storm brewing. Because of that I don't want to let the current triangle end without taking one side in the game. #419

[r0ach]

I assume we might experience some resistance before the halving. Sell-the-news-stuff. New ATH after a correction to the 5XX$ region. If I would trade currently, I would take some proft in the 820-920 area. Bitcoin tends to overshot resistances by a few points just to scare trader off.

This is MatTheCat style, armageddon posting idiocy.  When the price went from $230 to $500 in a shooting star in Nov 2015, it did a retrace to 38.2% fib level of $340ish.  The current rise is NOT a shooting star, yet even if it was and followed the same jump and crash fib retracement as that shooting star example, that would put it at $600 if it topped out at $840.  There will not be any dump like that because like I said, the current rise is not a shooting star, and the cost of production is also doubling, where it did not in the previous example.  

Since it's not possible to go all the way down to the 38.2% like in the November shooting star event, the fib retracement levels off a $840 then dump would be:  $758, $692, or $645.  Since the price didn't even spend time in the $645 range at all, and like I said, cost of production is doubling, I doubt it could go do a lower fib retracement than $692 if it decided to dump from the $800's.  Miners themselves would generally be buying everything that gets low post halving.

[MatTheCat]

Do you still refuse to jump on BTC train Mat?

Not enough of a consolidation for me yet.



I could go long now on the AB=CD breakout that seems to be setting up, it could fake out, and then tank down to $650, which wouldn't even be a 38.2% retrace of the move up from just a couple of weeks ago, which in light of the series of huge pulse moves up, would be absolutely nothing other than a healthy bull market correction, but if I were long, at $700 or nearabouts, and that were to happen, I would have to stop myself out of my position, otherwise spend a period of time in a state of high anxiety wondering whether the market was gonna come back to me or not. Last time around as I described, I sat, held, drank the Bitcoin Kool-Aid (for the very last time), and convinced myself the market was coming back to me......and that was a big mistake.

So in short, saving for the most solid of long continuation setups coming together, I don't think I can be going long here with so much room and unfinished business down below.

Oda.Krell and Wexlike have very good points about trading higher timeframes...believe it or not, on higher timeframes, I have been bullish on Bitcoin for some time, zoomed into lower timeframes with margin trades, I am losing sight of the bigger picture, always suspicious of the market's intentions, and ultimately basically missing the good long trending trades which are the whole point of trading Bitcoin to begin with....similar to Wexlike, I like every other Bitcoin trader, had my eyes on targets which are now well on there way to being hit, albeit tainted with my usual cynicsim when it comes to Bitcoin:






....as well as the clinical 'Break Out' trade that Wexlike posted, and apparently took, and had held up until now:






In all likelihood, my problem in trading Bitcoin is that I really don't believe it is inherently worth anything, and have too much mostly negative emotional baggaged attached to it, which affects my ability to hold a BTC long position with any degree of confidence or belief.

[Ted E. Bare]

Try a high time frame and don't use leverage. Profit.

[r0ach]

Mat, you just posted a picture where you said it's "dangerous" to buy at $430.  Dangerous for anyone who doesn't want to leave poverty?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I have been saying that I liked $800 range Bitcoin for months....my brother was surprised to learn that I had made hardly any money from the recent pumps.

"What do you mean you haven't made any money!?, You have been going on aboot this Bitcoin pump for ages!"

What I do consistently make, are fucking atrocious trading decisions. I called $677 Bitcoin around 2 weeks ago (not here). My plan was to get long from around $540 on the retrace. It never came. When bitcoin broke out through important resistance zones that I told myself would trigger a buy signal for me, I did nothing, cos it felt like I was chasing the market, and I have learned never to chase.

I find I can trust my 'judgement' on things. But my decision making is fucking shocking.

LMFAO ... honestly, this is comedy gold. This guy^^ he really needs to get a stand up show and go on tour to the bitcoin conferences as a light relief act to run between all those dry regulators and bankers trying to coopt bitcoin with ignorant hour long exposes ... I would pay for the laughs.

[Torque]

LMFAO ... honestly, this is comedy gold. This guy^^ he really needs to get a stand up show and go on tour to the bitcoin conferences as a light relief act to run between all those dry regulators and bankers trying to coopt bitcoin with ignorant hour long exposes ... I would pay for the laughs.

[MatTheCat]

Mat, you just posted a picture where you said it's "dangerous" to buy at $430.  Dangerous for anyone who doesn't want to leave poverty?

I think it is dangerous to buy Bitcoin at any price, cos I know that Bitcoin is worthless bloated shit, and that it is all just a dirty Chinaman's game to put whitey's USD in his back pocket....

....anyhow, I will put my hands up and admit I just FOMO bought on break out on Finex, despite my plan being to wait on Huobi trade setup triggering, then I panic sold as Huobi stopped dead on its RLZ.....then it started to want to break out, then I FOMO bought, and then, and then, apart from Huobi not fucking budging and Finex actually trading at a premium to it, I noticed 3MonFuts put in a horrendous FU shooting star short running wipeout candle, and I panic sold.

I clearly cannot handle taking trades with such a huge level of risk, so until this thing settles down, I am going to have to count myself as out.


Check out the chart on the far right. That is OkCoin 3Month Futures, what you can see, has "FU Stop Running blow off top" written all over it.

[r0ach]

[marcus_of_augustus]

LMFAO ... honestly, this is comedy gold. This guy^^ he really needs to get a stand up show and go on tour to the bitcoin conferences as a light relief act to run between all those dry regulators and bankers trying to coopt bitcoin with ignorant hour long exposes ... I would pay for the laughs.

ha! ... this is what I see in my head when I hear him talking about woeful bitcoin trading

[MatTheCat]

And finally....the leader exchange confirms the long trade:





So I am in again, on ButtFinex....

So there u have it chaps....bitcointalk's ultimate contrarian indicator, has thrown his hat on the long side. Perhaps time for you guys to start taking profits?


Buttfinex Target:

[Ibian]

This is earlier than planned, but I just sold part of my stash according to the SSS plan for the first time, just to finally get started. I can compensate by making the next sale a bit higher so no problems there.

I like this position. I either become wealthier, or buy back and get free coins. No matter what the price does, I win.

[BTCtrader71]

This is earlier than planned, but I just sold part of my stash according to the SSS plan for the first time, just to finally get started. I can compensate by making the next sale a bit higher so no problems there.

I like this position. I either become wealthier, or buy back and get free coins. No matter what the price does, I win.

Exactly. Steady climb to the moon = you win. Volatile ride to the moon = you win even more. So when you see huge price swings, you get to sit back and smile rather than have a heart attack.

Makes you wonder wtf everyone else is thinking ...

[Chef Ramsay]

Is it weird that I 'ignored' the main talent here?

[r0ach]

Is it weird that I 'ignored' the main talent here?

[adamstgBit]

I am in again

  mat finally went long.

   Mat finally went long?

  MAT FINALLY WENT LONG!

fuck this.

[r0ach]

The MatTheCat FOMO Spaceship

[Amph]

Mat, you just posted a picture where you said it's "dangerous" to buy at $430.  Dangerous for anyone who doesn't want to leave poverty?

I think it is dangerous to buy Bitcoin at any price, cos I know that Bitcoin is worthless bloated shit, and that it is all just a dirty Chinaman's game to put whitey's USD in his back pocket....

when you lose the train you start insulting the thing that made you lose the profit, you are basing your trading too much on TA, bitcoin don't care about old TA or TA at all it's all fucking random, you can not predict this market, no matter the skil

this pump was actually very predictable, any retarded would have known that the hype + other shit would have resulted in a huge pump, easy profit there if you want to p%d yourself...