Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[MatTheCat]

I don't think this is going to dump anytime soon, closing longs right now is not a good idea.

Nope, I am a fucking idiot....all this time we spent talking about the big Halving Pump, and I have basically gone and missed it, always waiting in the FU move, or the one last dump, missing the really big moves but managing to scrape a few crumbs off the table here n there....and basically being in a position where my capital has increased by about 20%, but the amount of Bitcoins I can control has decreased by around 40%.

.....but, now that Bitcoin is mid run, around 70% of the way up to it's next harmonic target at around $820....I can't be going long here (just a few bucks short of the trade target that I chicken shitted out of at the first sign of trouble). Will wait for the next consolidation and watch for the Ws to come in......


.....With that said, going by past experiences, a brutal wipe out of FOMO buyers is pretty much a given with any Bitcoin pump, normally occuring about half way up the move.....2013 saw $750 correct down to $300s...and then right back up to $700 within a few days......all that is immaterial however, as I know very well that no way have I got the balls to catch one of those Bitcoin falling knives...whenever it occurs.

[chesthing]

Matt, there is a reason you spend so much time watching/analyzing/thinking/dreaming about crypto - it's because it's g'damn addictive and fascinating. Think about all those people out there who don't know any of this is going on yet and ask why most won't have the same reaction you and I have had to it. Just buy it and hold it and stop trying to make a few bucks here and there with it.
Btw, my 12 bitcoins into Waves has turned into 14 btc and 10k free waves that's worth currently 6 btc but will be worth much more when it pumps.

[MatTheCat]

Matt, there is a reason you spend so much time watching/analyzing/thinking/dreaming about crypto - it's because it's g'damn addictive and fascinating. Think about all those people out there who don't know any of this is going on yet and ask why most won't have the same reaction you and I have had to it. Just buy it and hold it and stop trying to make a few bucks here and there with it.
Btw, my 12 bitcoins into Waves has turned into 14 btc and 10k free waves that's worth currently 6 btc but will be worth much more when it pumps.

Waves Trading yet?

[chesthing]

Matt, there is a reason you spend so much time watching/analyzing/thinking/dreaming about crypto - it's because it's g'damn addictive and fascinating. Think about all those people out there who don't know any of this is going on yet and ask why most won't have the same reaction you and I have had to it. Just buy it and hold it and stop trying to make a few bucks here and there with it.
Btw, my 12 bitcoins into Waves has turned into 14 btc and 10k free waves that's worth currently 6 btc but will be worth much more when it pumps.

Waves Trading yet?

No, I sold 22k privately on this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1496254.msg15073396#msg15073396
I couldn't stand watching bitcoin pump so I sold 2/3 of my coins for almost 2x profit, but most likely I will regret it. Bittrex on the 20th it's supposed to launch.

[MatTheCat]

Matt, there is a reason you spend so much time watching/analyzing/thinking/dreaming about crypto - it's because it's g'damn addictive and fascinating. Think about all those people out there who don't know any of this is going on yet and ask why most won't have the same reaction you and I have had to it. Just buy it and hold it and stop trying to make a few bucks here and there with it.
Btw, my 12 bitcoins into Waves has turned into 14 btc and 10k free waves that's worth currently 6 btc but will be worth much more when it pumps.

Waves Trading yet?

No, I sold 22k privately on this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1496254.msg15073396#msg15073396
I couldn't stand watching bitcoin pump so I sold 2/3 of my coins for almost 2x profit, but most likely I will regret it. Bittrex on the 20th it's supposed to launch.

I only put 0.5 BTC into it....an amount I couldn't give a fuck about losing....

....perhaps this will prove the key to me successfully hanging in there and waiting on a hefty profit taking %.

[r0ach]

my capital has increased by about 20%, but the amount of Bitcoins I can control has decreased by around 40%.

I'm up fiat-wise 400%, all reinvested back into BTC.  I know a few others in the same boat.  When a lot of the big winners of this rally are not cashing out to fiat and just enlarging BTC positions, this is why you don't see much big drops.  There's no reason to cash out of BTC.  It still has tons more upside potential.  Logarithmic price of BTC says it should go to $1800.  GBTC is buying coins for $1350.  Then of course if a big parabolic move occurs similar to the last move, that would put it in $3000-4000 territory.  Post-halving scarcity should continue a bullish trend too.

[chesthing]

Matt, there is a reason you spend so much time watching/analyzing/thinking/dreaming about crypto - it's because it's g'damn addictive and fascinating. Think about all those people out there who don't know any of this is going on yet and ask why most won't have the same reaction you and I have had to it. Just buy it and hold it and stop trying to make a few bucks here and there with it.
Btw, my 12 bitcoins into Waves has turned into 14 btc and 10k free waves that's worth currently 6 btc but will be worth much more when it pumps.

Waves Trading yet?

No, I sold 22k privately on this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1496254.msg15073396#msg15073396
I couldn't stand watching bitcoin pump so I sold 2/3 of my coins for almost 2x profit, but most likely I will regret it. Bittrex on the 20th it's supposed to launch.

I only put 0.5 BTC into it....an amount I couldn't give a fuck about losing....

....perhaps this will prove the key to me successfully hanging in there and waiting on a hefty profit taking %.

Hold it for 6 months and don't sell under 10x and see if that works.

[MatTheCat]

my capital has increased by about 20%, but the amount of Bitcoins I can control has decreased by around 40%.

I'm up fiat-wise 400%, all reinvested back into BTC.  I know a few others in the same boat.  When a lot of the big winners of this rally are not cashing out to fiat and just enlarging BTC positions, this is why you don't see much big drops.  There's no reason to cash out of BTC.  It still has tons more upside potential.  Logarithmic price of BTC is showing $1800 right now.  GBTC is buying coins for $1350.

Ur Fiat is not up anything, until your capital is denominated in Fiat....been there done it before with Bitcoin, sitting staring at massive gains, only to see them turn to dust, and then less than dust, in a very short period of time.

This pump is being totally engineered, and the only folks guaranteed to win, are those who are doing the pumping, and who will then ultimately decide when the dumping starts. The rest of us just need to pick our profit taking targets and live with them, which is a very hard thing to do....Sell at $800, make a huge profit on trade, then watch Bitcoin hit $900...what are most people gonna do? This is why in the end, the majority lose in markets. Markets have to be this way, otherwise there wouldn't be any profit taking potential to attract people to markets in the first place.


btw.....Big confiscated BTC auction coming up on 20th June, (Australian time, so that will be more like evening of 19th for those living in US).....last big BTC auction was back in early November 2015, 'funnily enough'.

[chesthing]

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

Damn well played sir.

[r0ach]

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

Damn well played sir.

Original margin entry was $440

[Tzupy]

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

Damn well played sir.

Yeah, except the plan with catching the knife. I waited and then had to go to sleep at 3 am (my time), so I moved my bids
to the worst scenario area, and - obviously - missed the local bottom, because I slept one hour too long.
But if this is to pump further, it should be range bound for a couple of days.

[darlidada]

I closed the last bit of my long at 778$, now hoping to catch a falling knife around 720$.

Damn well played sir.

Original margin entry was $440

is this an asymmetric trade again?

[MatTheCat]

Expecting Nothing, and Doing Nothing atm:

[r0ach]

Expecting Nothing, and Doing Nothing atm:

I guess that's better than what you were doing.

[Ibian]

Personally, I am disappoint. Didn't dump far enough to bother buying for me.

[MatTheCat]

Haven't taken this...was looking for entry on retrace to $744, which didn't quite materialise, and I was busy blabbing away in a chatroom, and not paying attention to LTF charts for break down:





Guaranteed to win, cos I aint in it.



Update: Thank fuck I never took this....that would be damn annoying. Sell signals were followed by a Sell Off, but target was not hit:



Now keeping an eye on BTC for further signs of both bullish and bearish resolution.

[MatTheCat]

It would be a fair comment to make, that there tends to be a bit of a sell off, in the wake of a seized Bitcoin auction. Tomorrow, is the auction of BTC that have been seized by Australian Police.

[Hunyadi]

It would be a fair comment to make, that there tends to be a bit of a sell off, in the wake of a seized Bitcoin auction. Tomorrow, is the auction of BTC that have been seized by Australian Police.

I'm waiting for correction mostly because of the auction.

On the other hand, I'm watching this, and it looks like it's breaking up. Perhaps fake out before the correction?

[darlidada]

@mat: are you shorting because of today's auction now?

[MatTheCat]

@mat: are you shorting because of today's auction now?

No..I amn't shorting cos of the auction. Bitcoin needn't just turn on a sixpence and tank just cos the auction. If anything, I strongly suspect one final FOMO burst, up to around $800, and then they will let the dumping commence.

So not doing anything right now...except paper trading and not posting them on here....cos doing so, seems to be a jinx.

5 straight wins on the bounce, (or 4, and one damn good call, for which the entry didn't trigger)

Betting actual money also seems to be a jinx:



IMPT 1 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/P2TnomPw/

Result: Win

Summary.
Strong sell off and bounce. Target was aiming for notch. Poor risk reward ratio, as had to risk to the lows, which were a long way down, and came within an inch of being stopped out, Target was hit on what seems like a total FU move.


IMPT 2 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sT7Mgjba/

Result: Win
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vKzfyf3M/

Summary. Higher highs, and higher lows, PoC target, simple as that. Ended popping quite a bit higher.



IMPT 3 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RD0e0bLW/ (Davometer, basically)

Result: Win

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jUdEXngr/

Took ‘profits’ (lol :-< ) a ball hair way from target, cos that is what I am gonna do everytime, if I see spot like 2% away from my target.



IMPT 4 20/06/2016
Short

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GyBiqwlN/

Seemed like a good spot for a correction. Gap Retrace Entry, Minor PoC target. In reality...(if I were playing with real funds....that trade is just begging to get FU'd, I think)

Update:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QqWz8RTU/


Result: Win
https://www.tradingview.com/x/g4xvD38F/

Good chance that I would have pulled this on pullback from minor 61.8% tag had this been a real trade.


Missed Trade 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2vGm5IU9/

Went for the 50% instead of the Gap Entry on this Hoag trade. Silly Boy. Will see what happens with it, but looking very good so far.

Result
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yaadtlni/

Missed the trade entry by a ball hair, but aimed way too high…..had target been underside of
PoC, then target would have been hit. As it happen, spot came right back and actually triggered my entry and may now go on to work, but lets face it, had profits not been taken, this trade would have been scratched.



Conclusion. I can do this shit pretty well, as long as I don't bet real money, and/or put my reputation on the line by posting trades in advance, and that tells me that my analytical process, is hugely affected by emotions. Emotional response to losing money, and emotional reponse to wanting to get one right fkn up the r0ach.