Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[MatTheCat]

@MatTheCat, do you trade anything other than BTC?

Nope.....

Long term holder of precious metals, and that is about it. BTC is what got me into 'trading', something I have only very recently learned how to actually do properly, and am increasinlgy learning why Bitcoin is actually pretty horrible to trade, in comparison with stocks on regulated markets.

SSS is da bomb. Price goes up, great. Price goes down, even better, buy back and get more coins.

lol.....so you will be ecstatic when price goes back down to $400 range, and that $790 high turns out to be the actual 'Halving Pump'?

Just like you were jumping for joy as Bitcoin tanked below $800 (remember the pelters u gave me for suggesting that Bitcoin was in a bear market back then?), delighted as Bitcoin tanked below $600, delirious with euphoria as Bitcoin tanked below $400, etc etc?

The Chinese own Bitcoin now, which means Bitcoin is effectively under control of the Chinese government, who could clamp down and kill Bitcoin with one snap of thier fingers. Under such circumstances, no serious Western money will ever flood into Bitcoin. Furthermore, the Chinese Bitcoin Cowboy's are the ones who preventing Bitcoin from receiving the overhaul that it needs, simply in order for it to remain a viable method of transferring wealth....my last BTC transaction required over 3 hours to confirm. Dat shit just aint gonna run over the longer term.....my advice to you is to start lightening up your load, until you are essentially on free coins. There is another guy I know on here who has done exactly that, and who now refuses to spend anymore *real* money on Bitcoin.....wise man I would say.

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[sandiman]

I never had these problems at Bitfinex.  

If u wanted to place a Market Order now to buy BTC on Finex, you would get filled at or near spot, cos the market is reversing and there are probably real traders wanting to get out. If you placed a Mkt Order to sell BTC right now, just watch the Bid Orders vanish beneath you.....A few days ago, I put in a Short Sell mkt order with spot at $678.88...got filled at $675.25, and this was for 5 BTC.......it's all bullshit, and it's bad for you.

.....last night was particularly bad, because I was trying to catch a reversal. The market was moving moving fast, being lead as usual by China, with the Finex bots responding to action on OKCoin and Huobi, and front running normal Joe Finex traders. Joe may think there are a few dozen worth of bids in the Wall to take a bite out of, what he doesn't know is how many of them are genuine orders, and how many will evaporate the very minute he executes his market order.

You will encounter this slippage issue in everything you want to trade ... that's why advised trader always try to enter their trade in calm days, to avoid slippage cost (and also to avoid catching a train at midway to the last station)

[Tippingcoin]

@MatTheCat, do you trade anything other than BTC?

Nope.....

Long term holder of precious metals, and that is about it. BTC is what got me into 'trading', something I have only very recently learned how to actually do properly, and am increasinlgy learning why Bitcoin is actually pretty horrible to trade, in comparison with stocks on regulated markets.

I agree re. crypto markets, just seems like you could carry over what you learned here to less manipulated markets, where you actually stand a chance. Unless this is some kind of Ahab/whale thing for you.

[MatTheCat]

You will encounter this slippage issue in everything you want to trade ... that's why advised trader always try to enter their trade in calm days, to avoid slippage cost (and also to avoid catching a train at midway to the last station)

But I am not interested in acquiring Bitcoin on calm days. I only want to be in Bitcoin, if I think/know that it is about to go shooting up a good bit. Hence, I am only looking to trade breaks or reversals...had I opted to do this on OKCoin Futures, I would have gotten my fill no problems at all.....issues there however, is a faulty order system which means that Stop Orders are often not triggered, which due to the nature of the 10* or 20* leveraged trading, means that positions are liquidated often. Indeed, trading against it's own customers and liquidating positions is likely where the exchange generates the majority of it's profits.......

....there is not one single Bitcoin exchange, which I would say is satisfactory to trade on.

I agree re. crypto markets, just seems like you could carry over what you learned here to less manipulated markets, where you actually stand a chance. Unless this is some kind of Ahab/whale thing for you.

Yeah....gonna have to wisen up and make the mental jump I think......sure, Bitcoin dangles stunning returns in trader's faces, much as the carnival dangles glittering prizes in unsuspecting punters faces, but the games that are on offer, are from the back end, designed to offer very poor odds of success.

[HeliKopterBen]

@MatTheCat, do you trade anything other than BTC?

Nope.....

Long term holder of precious metals, and that is about it. BTC is what got me into 'trading', something I have only very recently learned how to actually do properly, and am increasinlgy learning why Bitcoin is actually pretty horrible to trade, in comparison with stocks on regulated markets.

I agree re. crypto markets, just seems like you could carry over what you learned here to less manipulated markets, where you actually stand a chance. Unless this is some kind of Ahab/whale thing for you.

Crypto markets are a bit EASIER to trade imo.  Moves are more organic (albeit a bit more volatile) with fewer whipsaws, stop hunts, ect.  Machines and algos haven't overrun the crypto markets like they have the legacy markets... yet, but it's probably coming.  Anyway, buy-and-hold/dollar-cost-averaging has always been the real winner.  If you can't successfully trade bitcoin, then it is highly unlikely that you will successfully trade stocks.  Regulation doesn't matter.

[Ibian]

SSS is da bomb. Price goes up, great. Price goes down, even better, buy back and get more coins.

lol.....so you will be ecstatic when price goes back down to $400 range, and that $790 high turns out to be the actual 'Halving Pump'?

Yes and No. Yes, that price would be fantastic but I'd have bought back long before then. I might buy more tho. And No, that's not where we stop.

See, the difference between you and me is that while we are both shit tier traders, at least I know it and therefore dance around my weaknesses and focus on my strength. My strength is that I can see where bitcoin is going long term, and your weakness is that you can't.

[podyx]

MatTheCat, to be honest with you. I find myself curiously aroused by you and your TA.

[Chef Ramsay]

MatTheCat, to be honest with you. I find myself curiously aroused by you and your TA.

Kinda freaky

[MatTheCat]

Crypto markets are a bit EASIER to trade imo.  Moves are more organic (albeit a bit more volatile) with fewer whipsaws, stop hunts, ect.  Machines and algos haven't overrun the crypto markets like they have the legacy markets... yet, but it's probably coming.  Anyway, buy-and-hold/dollar-cost-averaging has always been the real winner.  If you can't successfully trade bitcoin, then it is highly unlikely that you will successfully trade stocks.  Regulation doesn't matter.

If you were talking about Forex, then I would agree with you, but listed stocks....just no. As part of my learning process, I used to paper trade stocks just in order to try out setups n such. Much easier to read, with way better success rate. With stocks, there is also the added advantage of being able to run Fundamental screens over them.

See, the difference between you and me is that while we are both shit tier traders, at least I know it and therefore dance around my weaknesses and focus on my strength. My strength is that I can see where bitcoin is going long term, and your weakness is that you can't.

You are a long term Bitcoin believer. I am not. You get to ride the full way up big massive pumps, I get to avoid big massive drops.

In the long run, i suspect my scepticism of Bitcoin will be proven correct, over your belief in it.

[PorkUsher]

we are both shit tier traders, at least I know it and therefore dance around my weaknesses and focus on my strength.

Only one way to capitalize on being a shit trader: don't trade. Unless you plan on becoming a good trader & learning by trading.

My strength is that I can see where bitcoin is going long term

Know just how you feel. Us mundanes get that sort of lucidity by cocktailing meth with its designer psychedelic cousins.

[r0ach]

my last BTC transaction required over 3 hours to confirm

You missed the post where I explained why that is your fault and not Bitcoin's fault.  The system works perfectly fine, you just didn't use it correctly.  There is a blind auction to get included in a block; if you bid too low or go zero fee transaction and it gets stuck, you have to use RBF to get it out.  You have to use external sites to determine what the market rate of fees is at the time because centralized websites can't really be included in the client itself:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1442399.msg15449230#msg15449230

Long term holder of precious metals

The silver 20y chart looks identical to the Bitcoin pre and post-MtGox chart.  You can get taken to the cleaners in metals, Bitcoin, or stocks.  The current bull run potential of gold is something like $5000-$10,00, silver $200-500, and Bitcoin is probably $4000ish for the next couple years.  I think Bitcoin doubling is more likely than gold doubling because gold really does seem to need some type of black swan event to do something like that, and Bitcoin can do so without it.  Silver might be able to double without a black swan by returning closer to it's historical 1/16 ratio or whatever it was.

[jianluca0808]

bitcoin is very manipulated because its a small market.

alot of coins in a small number of hands.  

thats a dynamic that is very bad for individual traders or small investors since you can be easily cleaned out by whales.

with gold or more general forex its not the same dynamic, more of a balanced market (although still heavily manipulated), so you probably have a better chance

[r0ach]

bitcoin is very manipulated because its a small market.

alot of coins in a small number of hands.  

thats a dynamic that is very bad for individual traders or small investors since you can be easily cleaned out by whales.

with gold or more general forex its not the same dynamic, more of a balanced market (although still heavily manipulated), so you probably have a better chance

Not really.  I think I read 50% of gold is owned by central banks and 50% private.  No idea if that number was right, but I don't think Chinese miners own very many coins and most of it is in individual's hands.  Central banks and the JP Morg naked shorts are probably more dangerous than any Bitcoin whales.

[jianluca0808]

bitcoin is very manipulated because its a small market.

alot of coins in a small number of hands.  

thats a dynamic that is very bad for individual traders or small investors since you can be easily cleaned out by whales.

with gold or more general forex its not the same dynamic, more of a balanced market (although still heavily manipulated), so you probably have a better chance

Not really.  I think I read 50% of gold is owned by central banks and 50% private.  No idea if that number was right, but I don't think Chinese miners own very many coins and most of it is in individual's hands.  Central banks and the JP Morg naked shorts are probably more dangerous than any Bitcoin whales.

not really. the winklesvoss alone have 1% of bitcoin.  how many people are in those 2 groups central banks and 50% private you mentioned??? millions and millions.  believe me no central bank can manipulate all of the forex markets or gold.  the forex is the largest market in the world.  do you even know what trading is?  

you are completely wrong, not only stupid, and if humanity is to survive your entire ridiculous and absurd post should be deleted permanently.  and if you continue with this nonsense you should also be banned . a word of advice next time THINK before you spew your baseless opinions onto the internet.

[adamstgBit]

bitcoin is very manipulated because its a small market.

alot of coins in a small number of hands.  

thats a dynamic that is very bad for individual traders or small investors since you can be easily cleaned out by whales.

with gold or more general forex its not the same dynamic, more of a balanced market (although still heavily manipulated), so you probably have a better chance

Not really.  I think I read 50% of gold is owned by central banks and 50% private.  No idea if that number was right, but I don't think Chinese miners own very many coins and most of it is in individual's hands.  Central banks and the JP Morg naked shorts are probably more dangerous than any Bitcoin whales.

not really. the winklesvoss alone have 1% of bitcoin.  how many people are in those 2 groups central banks and 50% private you mentioned??? millions and millions.  believe me no central bank can manipulate all of the forex markets or gold.  the forex is the largest market in the world.  do you even know what trading is?  

you are completely wrong, not only stupid, and if humanity is to survive your entire ridiculous and absurd post should be deleted permanently.  and if you continue with this nonsense you should also be banned . a word of advice next time THINK before you spew your baseless opinions onto the internet.

everything hangs in the blance as we await to see if r0ach delete's his post.

if you have a problem making money off bitcoin and you feel your being cheated by whales, check out bitmovments, this thread lets you know where price is going at all times.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

 

[r0ach]

you are completely wrong

I am right because the Winklevoss coins are locked up in their ETF process, so they probably won't or can't just dump them all even if they wanted to.  The simple act of moving their coins to exchange would trigger alarms to lower price, so they're basically FORCED to exit by ETF if they want to sell any coins at all.  Something like the Winklevoss you will be able to see coming from a mile away.  Parties like the JP Morg naked shorts in metals are far more dangerous and harder to predict when they would occur.  Metals only move when civilization is about to implode, so the other 99.99% of the time you're at the mercy of central banks to rape you with naked shorts via their proxies.

If you wanted a great conspiracy theory, you could be MatTheCat and spread the rumor that Bitcoin was created by Jamie Dimon to bail out the JP Morg naked shorts by drawing pressure away from that market.  Maybe a run on COMEX would have occurred if Bitcoin didn't exist, or maybe they would just be trading 1000:1 fractional gold/silver.

[MatTheCat]

Not really.  I think I read 50% of gold is owned by central banks and 50% private.  No idea if that number was right, but I don't think Chinese miners own very many coins and most of it is in individual's hands.  Central banks and the JP Morg naked shorts are probably more dangerous than any Bitcoin whales.

Ya think?

Ya know what I think? I think that China is a pretty corrupt place, where if u don't belong to a certain syndicate of families, then you are fodder for getting pissed over. To do anything in China. you have to be from the right background, and I put it to you, the Chinese Bitcoin whales that operate through the big Chinese exchanges, probably have connections with government officials, who would be well capable of having the PBOC cast a frown on Bitcoin, thus putting the shitters up the market, but without actually clamping down on it. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'China Bitcoin Ban' (that wasn't really a ban) of 2013, and again in 2014, was part of an orchestrated attempt to take over Bitcoin. All throughout the bear market (and indeed up to this very day), the market was/is generally lead by the big Chinese exchanges. Throughout 2014, Bitcoin was repeatedly hammered into the floor, until it bottomed at $150 in 2015, where it fluctuated throughout 2015 somewhere in the $200 range, well below the cost of production for any miners, who weren't in China, taking advantage of ultra cheap electricity. Not only have the Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys emerged with lots of Bitcoins, bought by Westerners at higher prices, and dumped into Chinese wallets by Westerners at lower prices, but currently, around 80% of the BTC mining capacity is in China. This just isn't the decentralised p2p magic internet money of freedom that Bitcoin originally set out to be.

I really don't know how it could be any clearer.

The Chinese have taken over Bitcoin and both totally control the market, utterly dominate the network, and are also the ultimate arbiters of Bitcoin's fate.....and yeah...if the PBOC should happen to really want to clamp down on Bitcoin, and were to order the miners to switch off their farms (and in China, shit like this can and does happen), then Bitcoin is toast. Finished.

For this reason, unlike owning gold, Bitcoin is not, and never will be a safe haven asset. Sure, Bitcoin may one day pump well into the 4 figures, as gold is practically assured to, but unlike Bitcoin, gold cannot simply be 'switched off'. Gold will always have value, regardless of any bankster shenanigans, or government interference. Bitcoin will always be a very high risk asset, with returns going forward, that quite frankly do not match the risk. I can think of loads and loads of stocks that offer similar volatility to Bitcoin, that are also way safer places to have money invested.

[r0ach]

Throughout 2014, Bitcoin was repeatedly hammered into the floor, until it bottomed at $150 in 2015

This isn't a "China conspiracy", simply everyone watching the market crash and not touching it until they find a post-Gox floor.  People didn't know if the floor was gonna be $400, $200, or $125.  This is the least plausible conspiracy.

but currently, around 80% of the BTC mining capacity is in China. This just isn't the decentralised p2p magic internet money of freedom that Bitcoin originally set out to be.

This is where you have things wrong again, as I have explained earlier today.  Your problem is located in the REAL WORLD, not Bitcoin:

<r0ach> That NY Times article implying China has too much power brings up an interesting point about PoW.  If China is the marginal cost and manufacturing leader of the world, any open entropy system that relies on the same externalities should exactly mirror it.
<r0ach> So it's not an actual PoW or Bitcoin problem, but a real world problem...

The good news is, if Bitcoin is successful, nations would not be able to manipulate their currency in such a manner to cheat others with rock bottom exports.  Everyone would have to play on the same level field.  So the problem you claim Bitcoin has, would actually be solved by everyone adopting Bitcoin.  It's probably inevitable such an event occurs and would have to be done using either Bitcoin or gold.  Gold does not function whatsoever in a modern economy though, from lack of granularity, lack of portability, high friction in use, etc.  So all Bitcoin has to do is not die and might be locked in to beat Gold in that inevitable event.

There is my post on trading the current state of the world economy, which applies to Bitcoin, metals, stocks, anything.  Bitcoin and metals are both asymmetric trades at this point, it's all just people fretting over trying to determine if they can get a 20% deflation discount at some point:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1413819.msg15471618#msg15471618

[MatTheCat]

<r0ach> That NY Times article implying China has too much power brings up an interesting point about PoW.  If China is the marginal cost and manufacturing leader of the world, any open entropy system that relies on the same externalities should exactly mirror it.
<r0ach> So it's not an actual PoW or Bitcoin problem, but a real world problem...

I can't be sure, but I am pretty sure that I have known about Bitcoin longer than you have. The first Bitcoins I bought, were priced something like $3.70. I bought them to buy shit from Silk Road, way back in late 2011. Back then, Bitcoin was billed as a totally decentralised digital currency, controlled by nobody, and maintained by guys just like you and me, who would run the Bitcoin program on their computers, where we would each have a copy of the blockchain stored, and where we could then easily and at ultra low cost, ping Bitcoin around the world, or to each other, to pay for any manner of good or service imaginable.

5 years down the line, the blockchain is the best part of a 100Gb, 80% of the p2p network is contained within huge warehouses, packed with processors, raping energy at an alarmingly high rate, soon to be demanding a minimum cost of $500 per BTC (for those miners getting dirt cheap energy in China), just in order to make it worthwhile for these massive operators to keep running. Meanwhile, what can anyone actually do with Bitcoin beyond trading it? In reality, for most people in the moneyed West, the only situation that is advantageous for for using Bitcoin, is to buy drugs with.....


...neat idea, but things aren't quite working out as well they might have done, back to the drawing board perhaps?

[r0ach]

...neat idea, but things aren't quite working out as well they might have done, back to the drawing board perhaps?

You don't understand what you quoted.  Any recursive, closed loop system (PoS) is not a decentralized currency, it's a permissioned ledger.  So to create an actual decentralized currency, you require an open entropy system (PoW mining - a permanent decentralized exchange peg), and those externalities that connect it to the real world will have the real world problems leak back into the Bitcoin system.  China trade imbalance is a REAL WORLD problem, not a Bitcoin problem.  The problem just leaks back into Bitcoin because the problem exists in our world.  As I said, all nations adopting Bitcoin would actually eliminate the problem since no nation can operate currency wars then to form the trade imbalance in the first place.

It doesn't matter if Bitcoin exists or not, you would still have to deal with the China trade imbalance regardless, either through war, tariffs, or each nation adopting the same currency to prevent currency wars from creating the imbalance.  Tariffs and war are likely a synonym for each other, so the end result is, you can likely either all die in WW3 or adopt the same settlement currency.  The only viable candidates are Bitcoin and gold, but both could obviously be used at the same time to make up for the deficiencies of one another and everything would just be a BTC/Gold trading pair.