Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[hermanhs09]

I am no trader. I bought at 400something on average. You make a lot of assumptions.

You are not a trader,so what are you doing in the speculation board?
if you dont have a lot of knowledge about trading and you only use someone's insight's you better stick you other investments,trading isn't for you then.

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[Ibian]

what are you doing in the speculation board?

Laughing at mat.

[STT]

Bitcoin rising fast in Sterling, I see the currency as weak below a previous band of 1.34 to 1.44 declining trend over the last couple of years.      Looking for some recovery to that point or the establishment of a new trend perhaps but yep its broken out I think.
Keep hold of your bitcoin if you UK based is my current view as its a valuable hedge to imported costs especially.   This is where bitcoin actually gets pretty useful like that, its a valuable hedge global vs national for people in weaker economies or 'special situations'  Eu exit after 40 years is that 

Not sure we got any live graph for sterling bitcoin, is there any exchange active especially on that trading pair

[r0ach]

This time around, I may not have struck when the iron was hot enough times, but I have also avoided any catastrophic mistakes

That's the problem, I played the ups and downs of the rise almost flawlessly at max leverage (up 2.7x Bitcoins - around 3.6x fiat equivalent) and I'm still demoralized from leaving money on the table for some of the post-rise swings.  The $20 moves that you don't take but know they're going to happen.  Or when you realize all the successful trades you made on the swings down only made it so you have the same amount of money you had when it was higher.

You have to be kind of a perfectionist in order to maximize gains, but nobody can actually do this every day and remain sane.  Running a bot or buy and hold (investing) is the only way to not be overstressed about it, because even if I win like 80% of my moves, you eventually take like three in and out trades in a row, and even if the spread is the same as you went in, the transaction fees alone make you want to stop trading.  I would imagine it's not physically possible for a MatTheMat to trade this market when I find it stressful looking at transaction fees, while every trade you make you're worried about losing 50%.

Everyone in the metals market lost their shirts and are just now regaining some of the losses, so Bitcoin is not really any different from anything else in regards to being worried about how much you're gonna lose.  The only way to trade this market (or metals) is for you to consider your wins and losses being in actual Bitcoins (or ounces of gold or silver) instead of fiat.

[MatTheCat]

That's the problem, I played the ups and downs of the rise almost flawlessly at max leverage (up 2.7x Bitcoins - around 3.6x fiat equivalent)

You are full of shit r0ach.

I see absolutley no signs from you at all, that you are capable of reading markets so well, that you can sit and sell the highs and buy the lows consistently, like a pro.


Regarding metals.....it makes sense to me to hold physical metals, so yeah, I can take the poundings the market has given me over the past 5 years up unitl very recently, a bit easier. But holding Bitcoin? Urgghhhh...no thanks. Even more vaporous than the worthless fiat that it is traded for.

Bitcoin is Nothing, quite literally.

[Ibian]

The only way to trade this market (or metals) is for you to consider your wins and losses being in actual Bitcoins (or ounces of gold or silver) instead of fiat.

That's what I do. My gains are small since I play it safe, but they will eventually count for ten times as much when the price eventually goes up.

[sandiman]

If you ask people to list their trading or investment problems, they are of two types—problems they don't own and mental state control problems. Problems they don't own consist of blaming the markets, blaming floor traders or locals, blaming insider trading, blaming their broker, or blaming their system for what goes wrong. We have a natural tendency to blame something other than ourselves for what happens. Society promotes it. For example, the recent media coverage of program trading virtually implies that investors who lost money in the stock market did so because of this activity, rather than because of any fault of their own. Yet, when you blame something other than yourself, you can continue to repeat the mistake because it was the result of something beyond your control. The best thing an investor can do, when things go wrong, is to determine how he or she produced those results. Now, I don't mean that you should blame yourself for your mistakes either. I mean that at some point in time, for any situation, you made a choice that produced those results. Determine what that choice point was and give yourself other options to take when you encounter a similar choice point in the future. Change the decision at similar choice points in the future and you will change the results you get. And by imagining doing so now, you can make it easy to select those alternatives in the future. When people own their own problems, they discover that their results usually stem from some sort of mental state. Common examples are: • I'm too impatient with the markets. • I get angry at the markets. • I'm afraid at the wrong time. • I'm too optimistic about what will happen. These are just a few examples of mental state problems. Once you identify a mental state problem, you can do something about it because this sort of problem is within your control. I've already mentioned how one can use body posture, breaming, and muscle control to manipulate one's mental state. To try this out for yourself, go into a shopping mall and notice how other people walk. Duplicate a dozen or so walks for yourself and notice how your mental state changes with each one. I'm not saying that controlling your mental state is the magic solution to trading success. It's just part of the answer. But when you admit that the answer is within yourself, you've come a long way. The realization that you are responsible for the results you get is the key to successful investing. Winners know they are responsible for their results; losers think they are not.

From Market Wizards, and I could have quoted so much more here...

[pereira4]

That's the problem, I played the ups and downs of the rise almost flawlessly at max leverage (up 2.7x Bitcoins - around 3.6x fiat equivalent)

You are full of shit r0ach.

I see absolutley no signs from you at all, that you are capable of reading markets so well, that you can sit and sell the highs and buy the lows consistently, like a pro.


Regarding metals.....it makes sense to me to hold physical metals, so yeah, I can take the poundings the market has given me over the past 5 years up unitl very recently, a bit easier. But holding Bitcoin? Urgghhhh...no thanks. Even more vaporous than the worthless fiat that it is traded for.

Bitcoin is Nothing, quite literally.

Wait are you still stuck in the "bitcoin is nothing because i can hold it with my hands" phase? This is how the average 60 year old reacts to Bitcoin when you mention it to them. Are you fucking kidding me? What are you still doing on this forum if you haven't understood anything yet after all this time? lol.

[MatTheCat]

Wait are you still stuck in the "bitcoin is nothing because i can hold it with my hands" phase? This is how the average 60 year old reacts to Bitcoin when you mention it to them. Are you fucking kidding me? What are you still doing on this forum if you haven't understood anything yet after all this time? lol.

blah blah blah....

.....yeah yeah....there are plenty of other p2p ledger algo's that do exactly the same thing as Bitcoin can do, can do the same things better, and can do much more than Bitcoin can do.

Only thing Bitcoin has going for it, is the network effect. Unfortunately, that 'network effect' has essentially relocated to, and concentrated itself in, China. Never again, will anyone be able to faithfully and correctly claim, that Bitcoin is 'decentralised' currency for the digital age. It is totally centralised. Over the 70% of the mining capacity is in China, which is dominated by essentially two big miners, and the same 'distribution of wealth' problems affect Bitcoin now, as they always have done, with the difference being a dominance of Chinese based whales over Western based whales. This situation is not a lot unlike the Rothchilds, or JP Morgan cornering the gold markets back during the era of the gold standard, but at least these guys never had the power to make gold that the Little Man held in his hands, vanish. The Chinese authorities have that power with Bitcoin. On the say so from the PBOC, the Bitcoin network could be killed overnight, at any time. It would be naive to imagine that the Bitcoin phenomena could survive the effects of 70% of the p2p network processing capacity going down overnight, let alone the panic this would induce on the exchanges. How likely this is to happen or not, I don't know. But the fact that it can happen, means Bitcoin will never be embraced as a safe haven asset by any serious amount of Western Capital...

....Meanwhile, from 2moro evening onwards, it is going to cost miners on averaged, around $500 to produce a single Bitcoin in order to keep the whole network going, the network which is already painfully slow, with it not being uncommon for transactions to be delayed for hours. Bitcoin is of course currently trading well above that level, basically cos 'they' pumped it up well above that level....but in the absence of the Whale pumpers, and any opportunistic speculators looking to make a fast buck on the 'Halving Pump', is the organic Bitcoin market really capable of demanding a $500+ price tag per Bitcoin, essential for keeping the whole overbloated system running?

Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchants need to realise how fragile this thing really is.

[adamstgBit]

Wait are you still stuck in the "bitcoin is nothing because i can hold it with my hands" phase? This is how the average 60 year old reacts to Bitcoin when you mention it to them. Are you fucking kidding me? What are you still doing on this forum if you haven't understood anything yet after all this time? lol.

blah blah blah....

.....yeah yeah....there are plenty of other p2p ledger algo's that do exactly the same thing as Bitcoin can do, can do the same things better, and can do much more than Bitcoin can do.

Only thing Bitcoin has going for it, is the network effect. Unfortunately, that 'network effect' has essentially relocated to, and concentrated itself in, China. Never again, will anyone be able to faithfully and correctly claim, that Bitcoin is 'decentralised' currency for the digital age. It is totally centralised. Over the 70% of the mining capacity is in China, which is dominated by essentially two big miners, and the same 'distribution of wealth' problems affect Bitcoin now, as they always have done, with the difference being a dominance of Chinese based whales over Western based whales. This situation is not a lot unlike the Rothchilds, or JP Morgan cornering the gold markets back during the era of the gold standard, but at least these guys never had the power to make gold that the Little Man held in his hands, vanish. The Chinese authorities have that power with Bitcoin. On the say so from the PBOC, the Bitcoin network could be killed overnight, at any time. It would be naive to imagine that the Bitcoin phenomena could survive the effects of 70% of the p2p network processing capacity going down overnight, let alone the panic this would induce on the exchanges. How likely this is to happen or not, I don't know. But the fact that it can happen, means Bitcoin will never be embraced as a safe haven asset by any serious amount of Western Capital...

....Meanwhile, from 2moro evening onwards, it is going to cost miners on averaged, around $500 to produce a single Bitcoin in order to keep the whole network going, the network which is already painfully slow, with it not being uncommon for transactions to be delayed for hours. Bitcoin is of course currently trading well above that level, basically cos 'they' pumped it up well above that level....but in the absence of the Whale pumpers, and any opportunistic speculators looking to make a fast buck on the 'Halving Pump', is the organic Bitcoin market really capable of demanding a $500+ price tag per Bitcoin, essential for keeping the whole overbloated system running?

Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchants need to realise how fragile this thing really is.

blah blah blah....

All the miners in china

blah blah blah....

you fail to understand the difference between decentralization and hashing power distribution.
there is no central point of control over bitcoin
even if 100% of the minning was done in china this statement would still hold true.
bitcoin is a decentralized app.

[adamstgBit]

Mat go Long and HODL!

FFS......

[MatTheCat]

Mat go Long and HODL!

FFS......

So adamstgBit...u been around here a while...u seen it all before....

.....what do you reckon is going to happen to Bitcoin in the aftermath of the Halving, some 20 hours or so away?

[foggyb]

Only thing Bitcoin has going for it, is the network effect. Unfortunately, that 'network effect' has essentially relocated to, and concentrated itself in, China. Never again, will anyone be able to faithfully and correctly claim, that Bitcoin is 'decentralised' currency for the digital age. It is totally centralised. Over the 70% of the mining capacity is in China, which is dominated by essentially two big miners

Mat, you're not making any sense. China isn't going to do a damn thing to upset the apple cart. If they fork it, bitcoin ceases to be universal, and that is not in their best interests. A unified decentralized bitcoin is the only workable solution, otherwise its just shit, as you point out. And FOR THAT REASON, China will do nothing. You can stake your life savings on it.

[MatTheCat]

Mat, you're not making any sense. China isn't going to do a damn thing to upset the apple cart. If they fork it, bitcoin ceases to be universal, and that is not in their best interests. A unified decentralized bitcoin is the only workable solution, otherwise its just shit, as you point out. And FOR THAT REASON, China will do nothing. You can stake your life savings on it.

The Chinese Bitcoin Cowboy's aren't going to do anything to intentionally break Bitcoin, but their government might, should they see fit to do so.

If one day, the PBOC decides that Bitcoin is a bad influence on Chinese finance or society, they could just turn around and kill it on the spot, or if they are feeling charitable, give the miners and users of Bitcoin 3 months to get themselves out the game.

I am not saying that this will happen. I am saying that it could happen. And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

[Ibian]

Mat go Long and HODL!

FFS......

So adamstgBit...u been around here a while...u seen it all before....

.....what do you reckon is going to happen to Bitcoin in the aftermath of the Halving, some 20 hours or so away?

The block reward will drop by 12.5 coins. That is all that will happen, precisely as advertised. And when the world sees that the network did, in fact, not implode from the massive strain of doing its programmed duty, things will continue as normal. As usual.

You are a panicky idiot, iow.

[Odalv]

Mat, you're not making any sense. China isn't going to do a damn thing to upset the apple cart. If they fork it, bitcoin ceases to be universal, and that is not in their best interests. A unified decentralized bitcoin is the only workable solution, otherwise its just shit, as you point out. And FOR THAT REASON, China will do nothing. You can stake your life savings on it.

The Chinese Bitcoin Cowboy's aren't going to do anything to intentionally break Bitcoin, but their government might, should they see fit to do so.

If one day, the PBOC decides that Bitcoin is a bad influence on Chinese finance or society, they could just turn around and kill it on the spot, or if they are feeling charitable, give the miners and users of Bitcoin 3 months to get themselves out the game.

I am not saying that this will happen. I am saying that it could happen. And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

Seems, you do not understand that bitcoin is a private key. If you shut down miners in china then they will emerge in other place. There is not government that can move your bitcoins. Maybe china can shut down miners but for how long time ? (2 hour, 2 days. 2 weeks ?)

[foggyb]

And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

Mat, even if you'd turn out to be right (that serious capital will mostly stay out), we still have no idea how much bitcoin is worth, even without capturing anywhere near a similar amount of capital as say, the precious metals market. Total global wealth is around 200 trillion. If bitcoin captures a tenth of one percent of global wealth, (0.1%), that is a 20 billion dollar market, double what it is now. To me, that is what you define as not "serious capital" in terms of individual investment; most are not investing more than they can afford to lose. I think your pessimism borders on the irrational.

[Odalv]

And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

Mat, even if you'd turn out to be right (that serious capital will mostly stay out), we still have no idea how much bitcoin is worth, even without capturing anywhere near a similar amount of capital as say, the precious metals market. Total global wealth is around 200 trillion. If bitcoin captures a tenth of one percent of global wealth, (0.1%), that is a 20200 billion dollar market, double20x what it is now. To me, that is what you define as not "serious capital" in terms of individual investment; most are not investing more than they can afford to lose. I think your pessimism borders on the irrational.

[podyx]

And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

Mat, even if you'd turn out to be right (that serious capital will mostly stay out), we still have no idea how much bitcoin is worth, even without capturing anywhere near a similar amount of capital as say, the precious metals market. Total global wealth is around 200 trillion. If bitcoin captures a tenth of one percent of global wealth, (0.1%), that is a 200 billion dollar market, 20 times what it is now. To me, that is what you define as not "serious capital" in terms of individual investment; most are not investing more than they can afford to lose. I think your pessimism borders on the irrational.

Fixed.

Thought it sounded very low with just 20 billion.

[foggyb]

And the very fact that it could happen, puts Bitcoin beyond the pale for any serious capital chasing anything other than high risk, short term gains. Gold it aint, and never will be.

Mat, even if you'd turn out to be right (that serious capital will mostly stay out), we still have no idea how much bitcoin is worth, even without capturing anywhere near a similar amount of capital as say, the precious metals market. Total global wealth is around 200 trillion. If bitcoin captures a tenth of one percent of global wealth, (0.1%), that is a 20200 billion dollar market, double20x what it is now. To me, that is what you define as not "serious capital" in terms of individual investment; most are not investing more than they can afford to lose. I think your pessimism borders on the irrational.

Wow, it seems my pessimism borders on the irrational.   XD

thanks for the math lesson.