Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[Torque]

Yep Mat's right, no one but day traders want these useless bitcoins:

https://gemini.com/auction-data/

[MatDerKater]

Yep Mat's right, no one but day traders want these useless bitcoins:

https://gemini.com/auction-data/

Traders.

Small time capital control evaders

Drug dealers

Some gamblers.

The odd online hooker.....


But 99% traders/investors looking for a fast buck. Doesn't take a genius to look at Bitcoin chart and see that this asset is driven by almost purely speculation.

[Torque]

Yep Mat's right, no one but day traders want these useless bitcoins:

https://gemini.com/auction-data/

Traders.

Small time capital control evaders

Drug dealers

Some gamblers.

The odd online hooker.....

With all that KYC/AML the WinkleVii have to do?  Sure Mat, keep telling yourself that. 

[Holliday]

Information is useless and truth is worthless.

AKA

Bitcoin is vapor.

Someday, you may escape that box... but I doubt it.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin vs gold economics explained below.  The main takeaway point of the post is that bitcon value is not even based on scarcity, but on cost of production, which is the exact opposite of what most people think:

You're acting like bitcoin has a finite supply.  In theory it does, but not in practice since transaction fees are recycled and mining continues FOREVER.  It's the equivalent of if platinum costs $1000 an ounce to mine at some point but people are recycling old cars and getting it for $100 an ounce.  The lowest available price is the only one that matters.  It doesn't matter if the cost of production was $1 million for a coin at some point. It's an open entropy system so if the cost of production goes to zero, people simply plug into the system and mine those recycled coins for free rather than paying you $1 million.  

If there are no recycled fees to mine, it means the system was already dead in the first place.  The act of making fees recycle is the equivalent of infinite supply, just with the store of value aspect of that supply resting on cost of production instead of scarcity.  Each halving doubles cost of production, which enables you to increase price or lower mining input.  If you run out of halvings and then lower cost of production, you should have a corresponding effect to devalue other already existing coins.  Do you see now why cost of production actually does matter?

And another comparing metals vs bitcoin economics:

Secondly, bitcoin having a potentially wildly floating cost of production is one of it's greatest weaknesses and one reason it's not a store of value.  A wildly volatile to the downside cost of production is a black swan event in itself and would render confidence in that asset to nothingness.  If we lived in an open ecosystem, which anyone who claims we will be mining asteroids for metals does, then the cost of production and it's ability to not plummet is the main factor that makes gold a store of value at all.  If you live in a closed ecosystem it's not that big of a factor since you're bound by supply.

As for bitcoin, the fact that mining NEVER ENDS is exactly the equivalent of using gold as money while being in an open ecosystem.  If cost of production craters, you're screwed.  This can happen in bitcoin easily.
The act of previous holders just hoarding their money and refusing to sell low doesn't help because the network is officially dead in the first place if there's no mining fees to siphon off at this new lower cost of production, so the fresh lower cost of production coins drag everything else down with it.

[MatDerKater]

With all that KYC/AML the WinkleVii have to do?  Sure Mat, keep telling yourself that. 

I didn't miss that Bitcoin demographic out you know.....

.......that was the "99% traders who are looking for a fast buck" category.

Bitcoin is a commodity. Bitcoin's utility, is fast wealth transfer. Unlike oil, wheat, copper, silver, or fucking Broiler chickens, only a tiny fraction of Bitcoin bought n sold is intended for 'consumption'. Vast vast majority is bought on speculative basis. Bitcoin is a castle built on stilts m8.

I am cheering Bitcoin on, at least up until the $1500 range, not cos I have anything to gain nor to lose, but cos I like being proven right which is the same reason why I shall be cheering on it's brutal collapse that will come in the wake of this totally manipulated ramp.......nothing to win nor to lose, but I like being proven right.

BITCOIN IS GOING TO $1500 (and probs popping a good bit higher), COS THAT IS WHERE THE CHINKIE BITCOIN COWBOYS WANT TO TAKE IT!

When/if the ramp starts to become self sustaining from Joe Public stampeding in, is when our Chinese friends will start letting the market have all the fucking Bitcoin that it can take, and when they will stop supporting the rise, and just let the whole house of cards come crashing right back down to the cost of production, and possibly below the cost of production to really shake out the weak hands....wash rinse repeat, until the whole mis conceived project blows up in everyones faces.

One thing I find funny about bitcoin is that there's all kinds of analysts for metals that go into absurd amounts of detail about every tiny thing, but I've never seen anyone really explain bitcoin economics well.
Here's my attempt to do so.  The main takeaway point of the post is that bitcon value is not even based on scarcity, but on cost of production, which is the exact opposite of what most people think:

I don't quite understand all that side of things. I believe that right now, cost of production even for the most 'efficient' of Chinese miners is around $500 per coin. Cost of production got so high, so quick, because Bitcoin got over saturated with speculative capital, and exoribitantly manipulated to the upside during 2013. Bitcoin currently requires a massive amount of processing power to function. The only way that the processing power can come down, is if lots of miners go offline, and the difficulty lowers itself, and the only way that miners will go offline is if the price crashes and it is no longer worthwhile keeping their mining farms running, a bit like what the big Chinese miners done to all the small time Western miners through 2014-2015. But if the price crashes, and miners start to go offline, then the shortfall in processing power will lead to huge congestion in the system for a period of time, whilst the difficulty adjusts, which lead to transactions getting stuck in the system, which will lead to a collapse of faith in the Bitcoin network?

[sgbett]

In June 2016, I was correct to not want to buy Bitcoin...

Since bitcoin came out there has pretty much *never* been a time that was true.

Technically speaking, you aint wrong...

...but hindsight is 20/20 and you have been around long enough to know that the arse can fall out of Bitcoin with a moments notice.

You are correct, and not even just technically!

I miss the old days. This new crap is so tiresome compared to when people just used to argue about up or down.

[Moose30000]

I just buy and hold , been working great since 2014 . Dont give up Mat.

[r0ach]

I just buy and hold , been working great since 2014 . Dont give up Mat.

Do you think Mat conjures all these voodoo charts to practice a buy and hold strategy?  Also, buy and hold was a decent strategy at $200-$400, but the price has gone up so much since then that there's a lot of people sitting on large profit positions now so buy and hold is a bit more dangerous than before.  The chart on a macro level is parabolic after all.  Who the hell buys and holds at the top of a parabolic chart? lol.  It could still be a viable way to profit, just not usually a wise decision in general.  

My theory on bitcoin right now is that since bitcoin doesn't actually act as a store of value, once transaction fees get to around $1-2 (it's already close to that now), then the high transaction fees begin to force bitcoin into somewhat of a settlement layer and Bitcoin will probably start to hit a wall.  To act as a settlement layer you have to act as a store of value, and gold and silver do that far better than bitcoin does, so it doesn't seem like a viable strategy for bitcoin to attempt to compete in that manner.  

Bitcoin has to compete on actual utility, you know, like when Silk Road operated a business on top of it.  The throughput has to increase enough where other businesses are able to operate on it to give it any type of fundamentals.  It can't just be some type of scheme like "buy bitcoin because the price will always go up".  You have to draw fundamentals from somewhere.  Scalability actually does matter.

[Ibian]

My feline friend, I advised you to buy and hold at 600 bucks. You suck big time.

I am not interested in holding a big pile of vapour, that I paid $600 per piece for.

Had you followed my advice you would be rich now. It took only ± 6 months and no effort.

Same applies today, buy and hold. Don't look at it. Store your coins away. We talk again a year from now.

Yep. And he has been told the same thing over and over for years. Doesn't matter, he needs to be in the victim role.

But it's fine. We live in an intelligence based economy and we all get what we deserve accordingly. And mat is simply not smart enough to make money here.

[Ibian]

Bitcoin is practically a toxic asset now with markets like this:

This market has turned full blown scam. 

Price up 1.6% from pre-ETF decision pump of $1200?  Not down....not even 5% down...but UP instead? LOL.  If there was any exchange on earth besides Bitfinex being the market leader to determine price world-wide, I might let it slide, but we're talking about the second coming of Mt Gox here - an exchange that already appeared to be naked shorting their own customers during the halving, admittedly traded on their own exchange while knowing where all margin positiosn are, probably traded with customer funds too, and then ranomly out of the blue stole something like $70 million of bitcoin from customers. 

Is this a dream?  How does Bitfinex STILL control the world-wide price of bitcoin while being completely insolvent and still owing customers something like $60 million dollars???

The price is always correct. That's the first thing you need to understand.

[Ibian]

I like being proven right

This, right here, is the very core of your problem.

Being right all the time just reaffirms bias. Eventually you start looking for it even when it isn't there. Personally, I like to be proven wrong. That's my end goal in any discussion, because being wrong about something is an opportunity to learn and grow and do better next time, instead of repeating the same old tired mistakes.

You will never be more than you are as long as you cling to the need and desire to be Right all the time.

[MatDerKater]

I like being proven right

This, right here, is the very core of your problem.

Being right all the time just reaffirms bias. Eventually you start looking for it even when it isn't there. Personally, I like to be proven wrong. That's my end goal in any discussion, because being wrong about something is an opportunity to learn and grow and do better next time, instead of repeating the same old tired mistakes.

You will never be more than you are as long as you cling to the need and desire to be Right all the time.

No.

The very core of my problem, is that I have been trying to do something that I am not 'meant' to be doing.

Every organism, every person, is born with a certain blueprint that the organism is designed to follow. If the person/organism follows the blueprint, they will generally be rewarded in life and if they go against that blueprint, then fortune will also go against them.

If some guy whose blueprint in life is to settle down with some woman and have a family, but whose social circumstances push him towards trying to be a 10 women a week Lothario type, then he is going to fail spectacularly, no matter how good looking he is, or how 'charming he can be or how much he knows how to manipulate the female psychology. Likewise, if some guys blueprint is to be a womanising Casanova, yet social circumstances dictate that he should settle down with just one woman, start a family, attend church every Sunday, then same thing. Good fortune will go against him and he will suffer so long as he continues to betray his blueprint.

My infatuation with trading, was an addiction, and thus detrimental to my overall character and an impediment towards me growing into what my blueprint states that I should be.

With that said, I don't think it harms much to have a handle on how markets work and it is certainly reassuring to me when predictions based on intuition come to fruition. My Bitcoin @ $1500 call wasn't based on graphs or charts, but based on intuition, whilst Bitcoin was still at $560 back in Sept 2016. Not that I haven't repeated this often enough in this thread, but the insight came to me on a very strong Mescaline hit. Same Mescaline hit where I realised that gold was the ultimate representation of wealth in the physical world which we inhabit. Always was and always will be, regardless of what the temporary smoke n mirrors of price action may attempt to depict, and any temporary mis-evaluation that may occur as a result of it.

Gold will stand the test of time. Bitcoin will be revealed as the vapour that it is and probably sooner rather than later, and everyone will wake up scratching their heads wondering whatever the fuck had gotten into them to have gotten so 'reingelegt' to begin with.

[Ibian]

I like being proven right

This, right here, is the very core of your problem.

Being right all the time just reaffirms bias. Eventually you start looking for it even when it isn't there. Personally, I like to be proven wrong. That's my end goal in any discussion, because being wrong about something is an opportunity to learn and grow and do better next time, instead of repeating the same old tired mistakes.

You will never be more than you are as long as you cling to the need and desire to be Right all the time.

No.

The very core of my problem, is that I have been trying to do something that I am not 'meant' to be doing.

Every organism, every person, is born with a certain blueprint that the organism is designed to follow. If the person/organism follows the blueprint, they will generally be rewarded in life and if they go against that blueprint, then fortune will also go against them.

If some guy whose blueprint in life is to settle down with some woman and have a family, but whose social circumstances push him towards trying to be a 10 women a week Lothario type, then he is going to fail spectacularly, no matter how good looking he is, or how 'charming he can be or how much he knows how to manipulate the female psychology. Likewise, if some guys blueprint is to be a womanising Casanova, yet social circumstances dictate that he should settle down with just one woman, start a family, attend church every Sunday, then same thing. Good fortune will go against him and he will suffer so long as he continues to betray his blueprint.

My infatuation with trading, was an addiction, and thus detrimental to my overall character and an impediment towards me growing into what my blueprint states that I should be.

With that said, I don't think it harms much to have a handle on how markets work and it is certainly reassuring to me when predictions based on intuition come to fruition. My Bitcoin @ $1500 call wasn't based on graphs or charts, but based on intuition, whilst Bitcoin was still at $560 back in Sept 2016. Not that I haven't repeated this often enough in this thread, but the insight came to me on a very strong Mescaline hit. Same Mescaline hit where I realised that gold was the ultimate representation of wealth in the physical world which we inhabit. Always was and always will be, regardless of what the temporary smoke n mirrors of price action may attempt to depict, and any temporary mis-evaluation that may occur as a result of it.

Gold will stand the test of time. Bitcoin will be revealed as the vapour that it is and probably sooner rather than later, and everyone will wake up scratching their heads wondering whatever the fuck had gotten into them to have gotten so 'reingelegt' to begin with.

Right. Everyone has something they are good at, or at least less bad than other things.

You like to be right, you like when others are hurt, you like doing drugs and you are by all appearances no good at making money with bitcoin. Go from there.

[MatDerKater]

Right. Everyone has something they are good at, or at least less bad than other things.

You like to be right, you like when others are hurt, you like doing drugs and you are by all appearances no good at making money with bitcoin. Go from there.

No.

If I take Schadenfruede at another's misfortune, then I have good reason.

If for example, I come on here in 2014, and say that Bitcoin is going to tank, and I get absolutely pilloried by people such as yourself, then of course it is sweet when I watch you all take a kicking from the market.

What was your average buy in cost through 2015 when Bitcoin was down in $200 range? $800!? And you think you are 'smart'? You think you are good at 'making money in Bitcoin?'

You are anything but smart Ibian. You are the very definition of a retard holder, and yes, I shall gloat at you when the day comes when it all goes up in smoke and enjoy every minute of it, providing that you are actually on here and not dangling from a rope somewhere that is. YOU, will deserve it.

[Ibian]

Right. Everyone has something they are good at, or at least less bad than other things.

You like to be right, you like when others are hurt, you like doing drugs and you are by all appearances no good at making money with bitcoin. Go from there.

No.

If I take Schadenfruede at another's misfortune, then I have good reason.

If for example, I come on here in 2014, and say that Bitcoin is going to tank, and I get absolutely pilloried by people such as yourself, then of course it is sweet when I watch you all take a kicking from the market.

What was your average buy in cost through 2015 when Bitcoin was down in $200 range? $800!? And you think you are 'smart'? You think you are good at 'making money in Bitcoin?'

You are anything but smart Ibian. You are the very definition of a retard holder, and yes, I shall gloat at you when the day comes when it all goes up in smoke and enjoy every minute of it, providing that you are actually on here and not dangling from a rope somewhere that is. YOU, will deserve it.

Narcissists always think they have good reason for hating others. It's nothing but empty rationalization, especially when you don't give even one good example of what that might be. You are an empty liar.

[r0ach]

What was your average buy in cost through 2015 when Bitcoin was down in $200 range? $800!? And you think you are 'smart'? You think you are good at 'making money in Bitcoin?'

The dollar cost average of the bitcoins I hold are $0 and I still get nervous holding the things.  Don't get nervous holding my silver at all because I know it's going to be a homerun at some point - the only question is how long.  The price of gold should already be at $2200 even within their too low priced manipulated system because it's price is highly correlated to US debt amongst other factors.  That run up in gold would bring silver to at least a 30;1 ratio of around $75.  What other asset exists where you're virtually guaranteed to increase your wealth by at least 4.3x with an eventual market correction, or far higher gains if the bottom drops out of fiat currenices/sovereign debt.

[Ibian]

What was your average buy in cost through 2015 when Bitcoin was down in $200 range? $800!? And you think you are 'smart'? You think you are good at 'making money in Bitcoin?'

The dollar cost average of the bitcoins I hold are $0 and I still get nervous holding the things.  Don't get nervous holding my silver at all because I know it's going to be a homerun at some point - the only question is how long.  The price of gold should already be at $2200 even within their too low priced manipulated system because it's price is highly correlated to US debt amongst other factors.  That run up in gold would bring silver to at least a 30;1 ratio of around $75.  What other asset exists where you're virtually guaranteed to increase your wealth by at least 4.3x with an eventual market correction, or far higher gains if the bottom drops out of fiat currenices/sovereign debt.

Bitcoin. No question mark. Don't turn into another mat, nobody wants to be that.

[r0ach]

What was your average buy in cost through 2015 when Bitcoin was down in $200 range? $800!? And you think you are 'smart'? You think you are good at 'making money in Bitcoin?'

The dollar cost average of the bitcoins I hold are $0 and I still get nervous holding the things.  Don't get nervous holding my silver at all because I know it's going to be a homerun at some point - the only question is how long.  The price of gold should already be at $2200 even within their too low priced manipulated system because it's price is highly correlated to US debt amongst other factors.  That run up in gold would bring silver to at least a 30;1 ratio of around $75.  What other asset exists where you're virtually guaranteed to increase your wealth by at least 4.3x with an eventual market correction, or far higher gains if the bottom drops out of fiat currenices/sovereign debt.

Bitcoin. No question mark. Don't turn into another mat, nobody wants to be that.

No question bitcoin at 4 TPS and probably forking into multiple different chains this year will take over the world and defeat gold and silver!

[prass tyo]

The USD swaps volume is just a fraction off record highs for Margin Longs on BFX. Record = $33 Million.
The BTC swaps volume is around 11.5K BTC. It's ATH was 35K on 27th April 2015, with BTC at $215. These shorts were gradually squeezed out of their positions. By the time Bitcoin topped out in July 2015, BTC swaps were at around 9K BTC.