Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

[1714679866]

1714679866

[1714679866]

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[JayJuanGee]

Well this thread sure isn't the best playground to hold this debate, it's moving too fast.

[snip]
However, that does NOT mean that we are going to agree that we should throw away our existing system, prior to the more broader implementations of these various innovations.

I do not advocate the "throwing away of our existing system". In fact, here is what I advocated some posts ago:

I advocate the movement towards the anarchy part of the spectrum. Not in any violent, preferably not even sudden manner, because I think that would cause confusion and suffering. I do this because I am convinced that decentralized/voluntary/anarchistic forms of societal organization are far superior to centralized forms in terms of their efficiency.

I can see why you would project that thought at me. As with any group of people, dogmatic, oversimplifying people seem to be a vocal majority among anarchists.

[snip]
if you are proposing another system, then let us know what that would be exactly and how it would play out.  

I really feel like debating Bitcoin with someone who just keeps asking me "yes OK I understand it is decentralized, but WHO RUNS IT? WHO CONTROLS IT?" I have told you, that I am advocating movement towards anarchy. How would you describe the "system" of anarchy? You don't, because there is no one single system. The point I keep repeating here is that you and I do not know what particular system would be better suited to our needs, nor do we know how a system change would play out and to claim we do is to engage in humongous hubris. It does not follow, though, that there can be no such system. The thought, that the best possible system can be devised by a person or a group seems ridiculous to me. I am saying that we should treat society more like an organism, which grows from the inside out, than a mechanism, which is assembled from its constituent parts according to a central plan, to fulfill certain functions.

Incidentally I am all in favor of this:

However, that does NOT mean that we are going to agree that we should throw away our existing system, prior to the more broader implementations of these various innovations.

I have suggested this before: to simply "cancel" the government right now would probably prove disastrous in the short term. The culture, the infrastructure, practically everything is not ready for this, because there are no alternatives ready. Government has a too dominant role in most important areas of human life. In many of them they ban competition. Before we can transition to any kind of hypothetical government-free state, these alternatives need to be created first, otherwise the transition might prove too painful. Quitting cold turkey might not be advisable in this state of high addiction to government.

What I am saying is let us work on creating these alternatives. If you do not wish to participate, I sympathize (but why are you involved with Bitcoin, I wonder?). You keep asking me to provide proof that they can work, but how can I do that? We need to try, to find out. Besides, I have already stated that it might indeed be the case, that governmental organizations have been a necessary part of civilization until the advent of the internet. But I feel that with this technology at hand, we need to re-test this belief. I have provided no "proof", nor real life examples, just a bunch of concepts and explanations, speculations and musings on why self-organizing, decentralized systems exhibit properties of emergent order and why that might be a good thing to apply to society. What more can I provide? I don't have your desired thought out central plan how to achieve decentralization.  Should I go on about how Wikipedia is superior to the Encyclopedia Britannica due to its decentralized nature?

Anyways, I'm happy for you that you seem to be quite content with the current system. Hope you can appreciate people trying to explore alternatives and tolerate their sometimes heretical thoughts while they do so. In the end if the result is having more freedom of choice, you'll be better off to. Or is the freedom of choice between different flavors of government enough for you?

Largely, I agree with many of your points that you made in the above post - except to the extent to which you are summarize my position in various ways.  Personally, I am getting the sense that you are NOT mis-describing my points on purpose..... , but you are in good faith attempting to respond.


Surely, there appear to be several variations  within positions that want to get rid of or to minimize government.     In that regard, your position seems to differ somewhat from other libertarian or anarchical frame works, , which I had NOT been attempting to get into those kinds of quagmires of discussions.

I am NOT opposed to change, and I am NOT opposed to lessening government or getting rid of it, in the event that better systems can be established.  Bitcoin can certainly assist in the direction of providing freedom to greater numbers of people and transparency to monetary and/or other transactional systems. 

I recall that this current line of discussion regarding the role of government began with the assertion that taxes  are like theft and then further implications that the government is like a pack of thieves. I chimed in that portion of the discussion to point out the extent to which that kind of thinking is fantastical and really lacking in meaningful logic (over simplifying the state of taxation and the role of government).  Surely there are a lot of flaws in government and abuses and misuses of taxes about which I agree, and my intention has NOT been to get into those kinds of discussions in order to point out that theft and taxes are NOT nearly the same thing.... and we have been having near meaningless communications on the topic, ever since.

  There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding  basic and silly points, like that..

[donut]

 There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding  basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.


Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

[podyx]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

did somebody say $5k in july??

[JayJuanGee]

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

Even though some posters here have asserted that this kind of good news in the USA and these network and infrastructure future potential of bitcoin has already been factored into the current price of bitcoin, I believe, somewhat to the contrary, that the multiple good news is going to, someday soon, cause an enormous increase in the price of bitcoin in order that bitcoin is going to catch up to where it needs to be in order to be a much more stable and viable financial instrument. 

In this regard, any BTC prices that reflect a BTC market cap of less than 20 billion dollars demonstrates to me that we are getting bargain basement BTC prices b/c in the very short term, maybe within a year or so, BTC's market cap will likely surge to at least $100 billion.. and that would signify BTC prices around $8000 per BTC.

In other words, the continued good news in the USA is going to make it more and more difficult for whales, bots and/or manipulators to keep BTC prices down...   So, even if the good news in the USA does NOT have a short term positive effect on BTC prices, these continued pieces of good news good news is going to allow for the choo choo to come more easily at some point soon.

[ChrisML]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

did somebody say $5k in july??

I do.

[aminorex]

did somebody say $5k in july??

That is an achievable upper bound under mania conditions, on the basis of precedent alone.  A substantially lower peak would not break the pattern, fundamentally.  Nor would a longer delay.

[aminorex]

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

Even though some posters here have asserted that this kind of good news in the USA and these network and infrastructure future potential of bitcoin has already been factored into the current price of bitcoin, I believe, somewhat to the contrary, that the multiple good news is going to, someday soon, cause an enormous increase in the price of bitcoin in order that bitcoin is going to catch up to where it needs to be in order to be a much more stable and viable financial instrument.  

I'm always a little wary of projection based on goal-seeking, although I admit the utility of boundary-value methods.  I'm also dubious of the impact of most news flow, whether good or bad, on BTC xrates.  This because sentiment on the margin is probably swamped by volatility, fundamentals, market microstructure, momentum factors.  Sentiment is always very bad on BTC.  Almost everyone is ignorant of BTC.  Of the remainder, the vast majority expect or desire it to fail.  A piece of good news here or there doesn't really do a lot.  It may affect speculators positions, working off of exchange balances, but not the inflows and outflows of fiat, which is where the xrates are really set.

[freebit13]

Not exactly new, but worth a read for a bit of perspective:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/02/03/these-four-charts-suggest-that-bitcoin-will-stabilize-in-the-future/

[JayJuanGee]

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?

That is great!!!   When is the e-book coming out? 

Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin?    Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....

Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

 There are people in this thread who want to continue to proclaim that taxation is the same as theft, which we should recognize on the face of it how preposterous and absurd a claim that remains ;;; but NONETHELESS some people in this thread want to argue regarding  basic and silly points, like that..

It's actually extortion, which is a form of theft.

I'll try to lay it out.


Extortion (also called shakedown, outwresting, and exaction) is a criminal offense of obtaining money, property, or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion. Refraining from doing harm is sometimes euphemistically called protection. Extortion is commonly practiced by organized crime groups. The actual obtainment of money or property is not required to commit the offense. Making a threat of violence which refers to a requirement of a payment of money or property to halt future violence is sufficient to commit the offense. Exaction refers not only to extortion or the unlawful demanding and obtaining of something through force,[1] but additionally, in its formal definition, means the infliction of something such as pain and suffering or making somebody endure something unpleasant.
src

Coercion /koʊˈɜrʃən/ is the practice of forcing another party to act in an involuntary manner by use of intimidation or threats or some other form of pressure or force, and describes a set of various different similar types of forceful actions that violate the free will of an individual to induce a desired response. These actions can include, but are not limited to, extortion, blackmail, torture, and threats to induce favors. In law, coercion is codified as a duress crime. Such actions are used as leverage, to force the victim to act in a way contrary to their own interests. Coercion may involve the actual infliction of physical pain/injury or psychological harm in order to enhance the credibility of a threat. The threat of further harm may lead to the cooperation or obedience of the person being coerced.
src

Can you really tell me with a straight face that taxation is not extortion?

YES.  I can tell you with a straight face that you are coming at this question with fuzzy logic.  YOU seem to be so much focused on yourself that you fail to consider that there are community considerations and you, supposedly, are part of that community.  YOU seem to be case in point someone who wants to set forth trivial arguments to mislead and to distract us from the main issues regarding meaningful discussions about the role of government.  You pigeonhole all government taxes and actions as some sort of guilty by association and NO good deeds are being done by these taxes b/c they are taking money from you.. and somehow, you are likely of the belief that these services and benefits should be left to the private sector to some how miraculously carry them out.. on a voluntary basis....  YOU are communicating EXTREMISM without a foundation in reality... if you are trying to equate the community interests to be the same as the thieving interests of a criminal.

YOU are also likely the kind of guy that is so against taxes and community contribution, that he needs to be forced to pay his fair share into the community b/c you are NOT very likely without being begged to contribute on your own.   Maybe if someone kisses your feet, then maybe you will possibly decide to contribute a little bit to the community.  You are so busy thinking about yourself that you fail to understand the variety of community needs that government fulfills to service people who are NOT in the same circumstances as yourself.

Maybe if we had only a million people in the world, we could get away with each person self-sustaining and having his/her own plot... but we do NOT live in such a world.. and there are communities.. and also an existing status quo that needs to be accounted for and transition if we are going to change to some other societal arrangements that may be able to accommodate approximately 7 billion people.

[podyx]

i'm starting to consider if we are following a close to exact pattern of the april crash and the november rise

if we slowly climb up to $900 in middle of april and a crash down to $750-800 then up again, i think its safe to say we gonna see a nice rally in may or june

im seriously starting to wonder if this is happening lol

if we see $650-660 in less then 2-3 days we are on track

edit: $650 is fine tomorrow

considolation till weekend where we will see a small race to $740-760
lets see if im right

[MANofthePEOPLE]

woho finally a little buying going on!

edit; quite a bit of buying actually 

[threecats]

500+ BTC buy on BFX

[adsdas]

Here we go!

[podyx]

okay.. bitcoin. slow down

[EuroTrash]

It really looks like a thousand coins have just been market bought.

[solex]

Here we go!

Trains, dead bears and rocketships time again.

[BitChick]

It really looks like a thousand coins have just been market bought.