Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

I just read that the majority of the world's tax year begins in April and that many people want to sell coins now to offset taxes for next year and will buy back in April.  Any thoughts on that?  We had a huge rise in price last April.  That could have been one factor.  

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses. therefore, they would want to wait till AFTER the tax year begins to sell and take profits.

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[chessnut]

I see a three waves down terminated on high volume =D

I think we go up from here the consolidation is over for the day. p

[JorgeStolfi]

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses.

Hm, how do you know that?

Every dollar that one client withdraws from an exchange was deposited by some other client.  If one client has profit (withdraws more USD than he deposited), some other client will eventually have a loss (withdraw less than he deposited).  So the sum of all profits and losses is zero; actually a bit negative because of fees.

Are you counting profit in BTC, or discounting BTC holdings as investments? That makes things more complicated, but in the end trading does not create dollars nor BTCs, so if one wins, someone else must lose, no?

That still doesn't say how many traders make a profit or loss; it could be that only a few smart traders make huge profits and everybody else loses, or vice-versa.

[chessnut]

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses.

Hm, how do you know that?

Every dollar that one client withdraws from an exchange was deposited by some other client.  If one client has profit (withdraws more USD than he deposited), some other client will eventually have a loss (withdraw less than he deposited).  So the sum of all profits and losses is zero; actually a bit negative because of fees.

Are you counting profit in BTC, or discounting BTC holdings as investments? That makes things more complicated, but in the end trading does not create dollars nor BTCs, so if one wins, someone else must lose, no?

That still doesn't say how many traders make a profit or loss; it could be that only a few smart traders make huge profits and everybody else loses, or vice-versa.

you could say that bitcoin traders have net profit, and that dollar traders have net loss.

[magicmexican]

rare to see btc-e being the most bullish one

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

                    !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !
EXCHANGE            !  03/18 !  03/19 !  03/20 !  03/21 !  03/22 ! 03/23 !  03/24 !  03/25 ! Currencies considered

BSTP Bitstamp       |  14.91 |   7.08 |  10.91 |  22.42 |  13.61 |  6.10 |  13.67 |   8.11 | USD(w,c)
BTCE BTC-e          |   7.91 |   5.48 |   7.85 |  10.43 |   4.14 |  2.43 |   6.35 |   5.00 | EUR,RUB,USD(w)(1)
BFNX Bitfinex       |   7.74 |   3.44 |   8.10 |  19.20 |   6.73 |  4.83 |   9.28 |   4.90 | USD(w,c)
LAKE LakeBTC        |   3.19 |   3.24 |   4.17 |   3.57 |   3.70 |  4.01 |   3.48 |   3.79 | USD(c)
LBTC LocalBitcoins  |   1.03 |   1.11 |   0.94 |   0.92 |   0.54 |  0.37 |   1.04 |   1.14 | (c)(3)
KRAK Kraken         |   0.86 |   0.58 |   0.74 |   1.12 |   0.75 |  0.29 |   0.88 |   0.70 | EUR,USD(c)(2)
ANEX AsiaNexgen     |   1.00 |   0.88 |   0.67 |   0.87 |   0.39 |  0.52 |   0.78 |   0.44 | HKD(c)
BTDE Bitcoin.DE     |   0.42 |   0.35 |   0.38 |   0.42 |   0.39 |  0.18 |   0.48 |   0.28 | EUR(w,c)
CVIX CaVirtEx       |   0.10 |   0.13 |   0.40 |   0.14 |   0.12 |  0.08 |   0.34 |   0.13 | CAD(w,c)
BCUX Bitcurex       |   0.32 |   0.15 |   0.43 |   0.20 |   0.16 |  0.08 |   0.23 |   0.12 | EUR,PLN(c)
JUST Justcoin       |   0.04 |   0.06 |   0.05 |   0.08 |   0.06 |  0.01 |   0.04 |   0.06 | EUR,NOK,USD(c)
BCTR BitcoinCentral |   0.10 |   0.06 |   0.08 |   0.12 |   0.06 |  0.02 |   0.09 |   0.04 | EUR(c)
BT2C Bit2C          |   0.03 |   0.01 |   0.04 |   0.02 |   0.01 |  0.03 |   0.03 |   0.04 | ILS(c)
HITB HitBTC         |   0.09 |   0.04 |   0.04 |   0.16 |   0.05 |  0.03 |   0.04 |   0.04 | USD(c)
BMPL BitMarket.PL   |    .   |    .   |    .   |    .   |    .   |   .   |   0.02 |   0.03 | PLN(c)
CPBX CampBX         |   0.32 |   0.06 |   0.72 |   0.07 |   0.07 |  0.05 |   0.07 |   0.03 | USD(w,c)
FYSE FYB-SE         |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.01 |    .   |  0.01 |   0.02 |   0.02 | SEK(c)
ROCK RockTrading    |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.03 |   0.05 |   0.03 |  0.01 |   0.05 |   0.02 | EUR(c)
BCID Bitcoin.CO.ID  |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |  0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 | IDR(c)
BITX BitX           |   0.01 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   .   |   0.03 |   0.01 | ZAR(c)
BMKS BTCMarkets     |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   .   |   0.01 |   0.01 | AUD(c)
BTNZ BitNZ          |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   .   |   0.02 |   0.01 | NZD(c)
FYSG FYB-SG         |   0.01 |    .   |    .   |   0.02 |   0.01 |  0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 | SGD(c)
BSCZ BitStock.CZ    |   0.01 |    .   |   0.01 |    .   |    .   |   .   |    .   |    .   | CZK(c)

SUBTOTAL            |  38.20 |  22.77 |  35.63 |  59.87 |  30.87 | 19.07 |  36.97 |  24.94 |

OKCO OKCoin         |  82.70 |  95.00 |  58.30 | 190.00 |  79.10 | 35.90 |  82.30 |  92.60 | CNY(w)
HUBI Huobi          |  84.10 |  62.40 |  48.10 | 154.00 |  53.60 | 18.00 |  73.60 |  56.50 | CNY(w)
BTCC BTC-China      |   3.70 |   3.79 |   2.85 |   9.79 |   3.06 |  1.57 |   4.84 |   2.28 | CNY(w,c)
BTER Bter           |   0.27 |   0.35 |   0.36 |   0.66 |   0.32 |  0.28 |   0.47 |   0.32 | CNY(w)

SUBTOTAL            | 170.77 | 161.54 | 109.61 | 354.45 | 136.08 | 55.75 | 161.21 | 151.70 |

TOTAL               | 208.97 | 184.31 | 145.24 | 414.32 | 166.95 | 74.82 | 198.18 | 176.64 |


NOTES:

(1) The USD volumes for BTC-e obtained from Bitcoincharts are consistently smaller than those obtained through Bitcoinwisdom. Using the latter.
(2) Bitcoinwisdom lists only BTC/EUR for Kraken, not BTC/USD.
(3) Bitcoincharts lists Localbitcoins with many currencies, most of which appear to have negligible volume.  This line counts only AUD,BRL,CAD,CHF,CZK,DKK,EUR,GBP,RUB,SEK,THB,USD.

All numbers were collected by hand or copy-paste from the sites http://bitcoinwisdom.com (w) and http://bitcoincharts.com (c). Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.)

WARNING: There are at least five additional large exchanges in China that are not on this table because they are not covered by Bitcoinwisdom: FxBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade, BTC100, and BTC38.  Together they may have as much volume as Huobi or OKCoin.

[Davyd05]

unless gox really does announce finding lost coins, as per twitter fud... I am guessing 576 as middle range on the days high or low.. 600 will be a train station of the future lol

[JorgeStolfi]

I found that there is an exchange (VirWox) where one can trade BTC and other cryptocoins for Second Life's currency, the Linden dollar (L$, SLL).
https://www.virwox.com/

It seems that one can buy SLLs with cash at VirWox, to use in the game, but not sell them for cash.

What is the legal status of Linden dollars in the US?  It seems that they are not considered a currency. Are they considered valuable property?

[JayJuanGee]

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

It's just hard to believe that you effectively doubled up 9X in a row to get returns like that. Did you use leverage on bitfinex? Borrow BTC to short it? Outperforming the market 400X is an extraordinary claim. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence and I have yet to see much evidence. Nothing personal.

I find it difficult to comprehend, but seems like it could be possible.... with extraordinary timing... buying low and selling high.. rinse and repeat.   

However, I believe that she is only claiming to outperformed the market by 100x.   She is saying that she got 400X, but the market, on its own, performed 4x.  I believe that would be her outperforming the market by 100X....

[JayJuanGee]

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

Seems like a likely scenario.  Not one that I favor atm though, because it looks like I might lose my bet against Pruden  .

You still got five days...   You may want to do some bear-ish trolling...

[Erdogan]

IRS Says Bitcoin is Property, Not Currency
In a notice, the IRS said that it generally would treat Bitcoin held by investors much like stock or other intangible property. If the virtual currency is held for investment, any gains would be treated as capital gains, meaning they could be subject to lower tax rates.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-490994/

Probably willful confusion on the govenment side, just like the central bank reports.

It is not a currency, because it is not a generally used medium of exchange, ok, but it is money.

It is not virtual, it is complete, full, real, tangible money.

The expression "virtual currency" should really not be used for bitcoin, cryptocurrency is better, but the best name is cryptomoney.

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

[JayJuanGee]

just noticed that my favorite log baseline crossed over 500.  rising almost $4/diem now.  crosses the current price on 12 Apr.  crosses ATH on 9 Jul at a rate of $8/diem.

Why say 'diem'?  Is not easier and more accessible to type day?

You know how you keep saying about your rule of thumb re. asking cabbies if they have heard of Bitcoin and they reply, no. 

Try asking them in English rather Latin, maybe you'll get a different response.

I find language fun, too, as long as the joke does NOT digress into aire stuperior.... in that regard, when it comes to word choice, there remains artistic discretion - NOT necessarily equally enjoyed nor appreciated.

[Pruden]

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year. 

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal).  Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund. 

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

This family of three lives opulently on less than $3.3k/month (you should add the house payments if you haven't got it yet, admittedly), in a metropolis it's probably much harder.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

4% APR is a conservative estimate for stock market long-term profitability after taxes and inflation.

Just save 25 times your annual spending and you're comfortably set for life.

[bangersdad]

I found that there is an exchange (VirWox) where one can trade BTC and other cryptocoins for Second Life's currency, the Linden dollar (L$, SLL).
https://www.virwox.com/

It seems that one can buy SLLs with cash at VirWox, to use in the game, but not sell them for cash.

What is the legal status of Linden dollars in the US?  It seems that they are not considered a currency. Are they considered valuable property?

Virwox has been in the game for a long time. They are very popular as you can pay by paypal or credit card for your SLL's then convert to BTC and withdraw. But they do charge fairly high fees for every step of the transaction - so fee for depositing by paypal, fee for converting to SLL and fee for converting SLL to BTC. They also have daily/monthly limits for how much you can deposit (about 300 Euros per day) But it is instant and very very trusted. They seem good at verifying paypal accounts and withdrawals to limit any fraud potential. I used them before i started trading on BFX just for buying small amounts of coin.

I have used SLL's within the second life environment - but do not know much about their price/volume history.

[Erdogan]

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.

[rpietila]

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.

It's like light. You quantify it as photons, but actually it consists of waves.

[Erdogan]

[ ... ] the anarchic pipedream of an unregulated global economy without banks and outside the reach of governments, laws and police is not only impossible to succeed, but would be a barbaric nightmare if it did.  

You make the claim "impossible to succeed" with no justification or consideration for the end goal of cooperation to produce surpluses for the benefits of all members.

Now, very few of those crimes have resulted in any criminal cases.  So, why should the criminals stop?  Without laws and law enforcement, fraudster and thieves fare much better than people who respect others's property.

You are talking about Wall St. since 2007-08 crises right?

Yeah, them too.  (Hm, now I get it, MtGOX and all that are bitcoin's strategy to be accepted by Wall Street...   )

Now you are talking...

[chessnut]

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.

Well bitcoins dont exist..... essentially one doesnt receive or send bitcoins, one just changes their identity in the block chain. but we just use the term transfer because that's what it's like.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year. 

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal).  Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund. 

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

This family of three lives opulently on less than $3.3k/month (you should add the house payments if you haven't got it yet, admittedly), in a metropolis it's probably much harder.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

4% APR is a conservative estimate for stock market long-term profitability after taxes and inflation.

Just save 25 times your annual spending and you're comfortably set for life.

YES... your cited article elaborates on the concept of living within your means... and I agree the less high maintenance you are, the earlier you can retire.... so long as you can keep up that same budget or lifestyle.. after retiring.. or you have a realistic grasp about how much it takes for you to live at a level that will be comfortable for you..

[el_rlee]

I found that there is an exchange (VirWox) where one can trade BTC and other cryptocoins for Second Life's currency, the Linden dollar (L$, SLL).
https://www.virwox.com/

It seems that one can buy SLLs with cash at VirWox, to use in the game, but not sell them for cash.

What is the legal status of Linden dollars in the US?  It seems that they are not considered a currency. Are they considered valuable property?

It's one of the oldest exchanges, located in Vienna, Austria - I guess under the radar of regulators for a long time now...