Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday March 22Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3447 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.
The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right). The magenta square at right is the above prediction. The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions. The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V
h/V
d, where V
h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V
d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date. The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater. The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S. The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted
a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.
The trend assuemd now is the straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 3745.85, B = -99.49, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--21. (It seems that there was indeed a break in the trend between Mar/18 and Mar/19, as suspected yesterday.)
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which today was 6.09 CNY/USD.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 00:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19.5 hours later)
Huobi's predicted price: 3630 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3547 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~14 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 591 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 582 USD
Error: 9 USD
NOTE: By my count I still have 1 Note credit, so there is no Note today.
I predict $589 tomorrow.
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