Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[byronbb]

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

To me it is the worst way to describe bitcoin because the meaning of "virtual", especially in the context of the internet implies a "non-reality" or simulation of something real.

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[TERA]

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

It's just hard to believe that you effectively doubled up 9X in a row to get returns like that. Did you use leverage on bitfinex? Borrow BTC to short it? Outperforming the market 400X is an extraordinary claim. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence and I have yet to see much evidence. Nothing personal.

yes the majority of my profits (percentage wise) are due to using leverage on bfx in November, and exiting and reentering the leveraged portion of the position at the right times during the volatile corrections.
 
The second largest portion of my profits percentage wise it's from a single week in April during the crash. (no leverage)

I've also traded alt coins.

So, yes. you're right. my 400x profits are not really due to ta skills at predicting slow moving mid term trends, but they help...

[chessnut]

400x profits are not unheard of nor uncommon in bitcoin land.

[JorgeStolfi]

So, since the U.S. declared Bitcoin property not money, how soon should Karpeles expect his Dwolla cash back? He was only selling property.

Shrem wasn't laundering money lol  facking bureaucracies

The FBI will clarify that bitcoin is a terrorist weapon, since its stated purpose is to destroy the US government and economy.

And the DEA will consider it an addictive drug, for War on Drugs purposes.
 

[billyjoeallen]

400x profits are not unheard of nor uncommon in bitcoin land.

I know that, but there's a difference between 400X profits and outperforming the market by 400X. You can get 400X profits just by buying and holding long enough. Beating the market by 40,000% is a different thing entirely.

[podyx]

Why are we going down??

[cbutters]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

[podyx]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

I guess so

[PoolMinor]

The FBI will clarify that bitcoin is a terrorist weapon, since its stated purpose is to destroy the US government and economy.

And the DEA will consider it an addictive drug, for War on Drugs purposes.
 

Welcome to my ignore list.

[chessnut]

400x profits are not unheard of nor uncommon in bitcoin land.

I know that, but there's a difference between 400X profits and outperforming the market by 400X. You can get 400X profits just by buying and holding long enough. Beating the market by 40,000% is a different thing entirely.

Did TERA say he made 400xby only playing the markets? because most of us have made more than 10x just holding. If I traded the swings from 2012, with a bit of luck and leverage I would have made 400x. 10x quickly becomes 20x, 40x.....

not something I would try to do myself however. it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

[windjc]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

I guess so

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

Seems like a likely scenario.  Not one that I favor atm though, because it looks like I might lose my bet against Pruden  .

[TERA]

it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

lol nice. I'm going to save this quote. It's a classic. I'm glad I'm not a banker or something.

[octaft]

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

I see these types of bets all the time, and it's dumb for the other side, every time. When you win, your prize is worth less than if you lose. If he were to take this, he would be in a sense laying you odds.

Why don't you instead make him an offer for $XXXX USD worth of bitcoin when the bet is settled, and have the person holding them divvy the bitcoin up accordingly (so you get a refund if you don't have to give all the bitcoins on escrow away to cover the $XXXX). That's much more attractive for the bear side of the bet.

[windjc]

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

I see these types of bets all the time, and it's dumb for the other side, every time. When you win, your prize is worth less than if you lose. If he were to take this, he would be in a sense laying you odds.

Why don't you instead make him an offer for $XXXX USD worth of bitcoin when the bet is settled, and have the person holding them divvy the bitcoin up accordingly (so you get a refund if you don't have to give all the bitcoins on escrow away to cover the $XXXX). That's much more attractive for the bear side of the bet.

Sure. Whatever. He's still not taking the bet.

[chessnut]

it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

lol nice. I'm going to save this quote. It's a classic. I'm glad I'm not a banker or something.

lol it's nothing personal, I said probably.

I would never keep more than 20% of my bitcoins at an exchange, I cant make 400x returns like that. If I used 2.5 leverage, I would be risking a margin call most of the time. I would have lost a lot of money getting caught up in all those spikes. or made money. my point, 400x returns are not in your control.

Im glad you're not my banker, because you would be risking more than 50% of my money most of the time  

[marcus_of_augustus]

So, since the U.S. declared Bitcoin property not money, how soon should Karpeles expect his Dwolla cash back? He was only selling property.

Shrem wasn't laundering money lol  facking bureaucracies

The FBI will clarify that bitcoin is a terrorist weapon, since its stated purpose is to destroy the US government and economy.

And the DEA will consider it an addictive drug, for War on Drugs purposes.
 

You might be closer to the truth than you imagine.

Lawsky specifically cited "national security considerations" when asking for investigations/hearings into Bitcoin.

This basically means the full surveillance machinery of the NSA becomes at his disposal under the anti-terrorism laws. Law enforcement only need to utter these magic words and the military arm of the police state can be turned from external threats to internal threats (to get around habeas corpus and etc). Then they can go about constructing parallel prosecutions cases using 'guidance' data that is illegally obtained and inadmissible in courts.

[creekbore]

just noticed that my favorite log baseline crossed over 500.  rising almost $4/diem now.  crosses the current price on 12 Apr.  crosses ATH on 9 Jul at a rate of $8/diem.

Why say 'diem'?  Is not easier and more accessible to type day?

You know how you keep saying about your rule of thumb re. asking cabbies if they have heard of Bitcoin and they reply, no. 

Try asking them in English rather Latin, maybe you'll get a different response.

[BitChick]

I just read that the majority of the world's tax year begins in April and that many people want to sell coins now to offset taxes for next year and will buy back in April.  Any thoughts on that?  We had a huge rise in price last April.  That could have been one factor. 

[JorgeStolfi]

[ ... ] the anarchic pipedream of an unregulated global economy without banks and outside the reach of governments, laws and police is not only impossible to succeed, but would be a barbaric nightmare if it did.  

You make the claim "impossible to succeed" with no justification or consideration for the end goal of cooperation to produce surpluses for the benefits of all members.

Now, very few of those crimes have resulted in any criminal cases.  So, why should the criminals stop?  Without laws and law enforcement, fraudster and thieves fare much better than people who respect others's property.

You are talking about Wall St. since 2007-08 crises right?

Yeah, them too.  (Hm, now I get it, MtGOX and all that are bitcoin's strategy to be accepted by Wall Street...   )