Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

[1714490340]

1714490340

[aminorex]

Clarity?  How can using a dead language be more clear.

In living English one of the meanings of 'literally' is 'not literally'.

[fonzie]

[elasticband]

Satoshi was hal finney.

I've always had Hal pinned close to the creation.

I do remember him actually saying he thought Satoshi was of Japanese background, something to do with him having spent much time with Japanese and there were signs that pointed Hal toward Satoshi actually being Japanese.

I always found that as strange as most people thought the opposite.

[aminorex]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

[ShroomsKit]

Clarity?  How can using a dead language be more clear.

In living English one of the meanings of 'literally' is 'not literally'.

I blame Jamie Oliver. He's so annoying.

[Todorius]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.

[billyjoeallen]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.

It's not that simple. The Chinese economy is on the knife edge of a major correction with bank runs, property market collapse, etc. We have a possible war brewing in Ukraine, tapering by the Fed, Ebola in Canada yada yada. I'm bullish, 95% BTC and going to go levered long if it drops below $570 again, but it's a risk. Shit happens.

[TERA]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.

What if your calculations about 'the new money coming in' are actually off, or the money going out outweighs this money coming in? What if there is something very wrong going on with bitcoin or with the world but it wasn't apparent to you and not public and not out on the news, especially not on this bull forum? Or what if bitcoin is simply 20x overvalued from its fundamental level due to massive pumping by mtgox and china over the past year?  If a major TA indicator as big as the 1W ema goes down, it is a hint that one of these might be true. TA helps you predict movements based on things that you don't yet understand. Read the chart, not the news.

[barbs]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Do you actually have to ask?  Ignore the chart and just think about it.  It is not as though mass psychology was the only factor.  At this point, any bearish breakdown must be faded.

Agreed. A prolongued bear market like in 2011 seems pretty unlikely to me. Not with all the new money flowing in the bulding of the bitcoin ecosystem. Adoption is still going up, the number of transactions rises exponentially. New bitcoin startups emerge on a weekly basis, the sentiment already seems quite optimistic to me. There is only one way, and that is up.
See July 2013 for reference.

What if your calculations about 'the new money coming in' are actually off, or the money going out outweighs this money coming in? What if there is something very wrong going on with bitcoin or with the world but it wasn't apparent to you and not public and not out on the news, especially not on this bull forum? Or what if bitcoin is simply 20x overvalued from its fundamental level due to massive pumping by mtgox and huobi over the past year?  If a major TA indicator as big as the 1W ema goes down, it is a hint that one of these might be true. TA helps you predict movements based on things that you don't yet understand. Read the chart, not the news.

This is my primary concern.

[shmadz]

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

How can you transfer something that does not exist? Makes no sense.

Well bitcoins dont exist..... essentially one doesnt receive or send bitcoins, one just changes their identity in the block chain. but we just use the term transfer because that's what it's like.

This is precisely why I like the term "cryptomoney". bitcoin has more in common with the stone money from the isle of yap than it does with what we would consider currency.

You may be correct that we don't actually transfer bitcoin, but rather we transfer proof of ownership of bitcoin.

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones

[Pruden]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Y'all keep talking about a really long bear market. In 2011, it was 4 months top-to-bottom. Fast though time has gone by, we're almost there already. It doesn't get any worse than this.

[TERA]

dun dun dun... which way will the triangle break? Either way will set off additional major indicators. If it breaks up, we're probably back in a bull market, and if it breaks down, we might be in for a really long bear market like 2011 as the 1W emas cross down. Which will happen? Can I get a drumroll?

Y'all keep talking about a really long bear market. In 2011, it was 4 months top-to-bottom. Fast though time has gone by, we're almost there already. It doesn't get any worse than this.

The descent period may have only been 5 months, however the amount time of time before the next ATH was an entire 17 months, which is much longer than the typical 6 months. There were two subcycles just to recover to $6 and then to 12. So for example we might have two subcycles to recover to $500 and then to $800, with the next ATH being in the middle of 2015.

[Zapffe]

Just as predicted.. LTC is interesting while BTC remains boring

[aminorex]

Macro risk is almost uniformly bullish for btc.  The one possible exception being severe global deflation, and for that we have helicopters.  Given that the worst case scenario implies a policy response of massive fiat inflation, I am very comfortable.

At current adoption levels any bad news is more likely to advance new adoptions than retard them.  Buyers were exhausted in December/January. Therefore, low volume and low volatility today are due to seller exhaustion.  All fundamental factors are favorably rising with remarkable stability and continuity. 

Anything is possible.  But the outcome distribution today is more strongly biased to the upside than it has ever been before, and the more adversity that comes, the stronger that bias will be.  Price itself is becoming antifragile.  If Satoshi dumped a million coins on the market today, price would recover within two weeks. 

[Mythul]

Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

[creekbore]

I'm with TERA on this...there's lots of talk about 'new money' but where is it...its not on the order books!

The bid sum on Stamp remains anaemic, China is losing interest -- the only bright spot is that (from the charts at least) local Bitcoin sales are both energetic and volatile, but I can't see 'institutional' money being invested via those avenues.

Interest in Bitcoin is definitely increasing but perhaps that interest is focused on the technology rather than the 'currency'.

Like everyone here I'd love to see more pictures of trains and moon-landings, but until the order books pick up it ain't gonna happen.

@aminorex -- I have no idea why you want to introduce the misuse of 'literally': pure obfuscation.

[Zapffe]

Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

For BTC, probably not. But it seems that LTC is tearing itself away from depending on BTC's price, so I'll probably gamble there.
BTC is too bloated for available pumps to create a strong enough momentum, and it's too untrustworthy for bigger pumps to enter the game. I see that LTC will be the more suitable game to play for the time being. Smaller market cap. means more movement and the name hasn't been tainted with scandals that raise serious trust issues. This makes it interesting.

[edwardspitz]

Wake up Stamp?

[DougTanner]

Is the bear market coming to an end finally ?

For BTC, probably not. But it seems that LTC is tearing itself away from depending on BTC's price, so I'll probably gamble there.
BTC is too bloated for available pumps to create a strong enough momentum, and it's too untrustworthy for bigger pumps to enter the game. I see that LTC will be the more suitable game to play for the time being. Smaller market cap. means more movement and the name hasn't been tainted with scandals that raise serious trust issues. This makes it interesting.

I'd say Doge is a much better bet than LTC long-term, in a few months and some more halvenings the selling pressure from the multi-pools will drop off. It's also a lot more fun!