Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Please help me interpret what is going on at Huobi right now. There is a fair bit of volume, but the price is fixed at 3540. It looks very odd, like two dealers/bots cancelling each other out. It did the same thing last night between 2 and 3. It is as if someone has decided that 3540 is the perfect price to buy coins at. Or am I misinterpreting what is going on?

I had trouble understanding a bug like that a few days ago at 3479. Huobi has had minor bugs since the ddos attack a few days ago. but my huobi chart on bitcoin wisdom is working just fine, it says the price is 3531.

Yes, bitconwisdom's owner confirmed that it is a bug in Huobi's server that reports the order book. Several consecutive bids at the top of the bid list get reported as if they were on the ask side, then moved back to the bid side whenever there is a trade, over and over. There are no trades corresponding to those moves.

[1714487657]

1714487657

[1714487657]

1714487657

[1714487657]

1714487657

[edwardspitz]

Please help me interpret what is going on at Huobi right now. There is a fair bit of volume, but the price is fixed at 3540. It looks very odd, like two dealers/bots cancelling each other out. It did the same thing last night between 2 and 3. It is as if someone has decided that 3540 is the perfect price to buy coins at. Or am I misinterpreting what is going on?

I had trouble understanding a bug like that a few days ago at 3479. Huobi has had minor bugs since the ddos attack a few days ago. but my huobi chart on bitcoin wisdom is working just fine, it says the price is 3531.

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:

Image here: http://imgur.com/EI1rtfK

As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy. If this is a bug I don't think it is the same bug as the one with the bid list.

[aminorex]

about 800 coins moved on stamp in the dump, 250 on bfx.  price moved about 12$, recovered about half way so far, in an hour.  bfx lagging by 2-3$.  dump started with a hidden sell at 584, which lasted about 40 minutes.  then it lit up, started as a wall, fragmented and migrated down, taking out liquidity slowly enough so that bids retreated pretty sharply.

overall, roughly 10k btc are offered to 600 USD now.  bids on huobi lag by >=1%

[chessnut]

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:


As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy.

Bitcoinwisdom has stated that the bug is on Huobi but that is the only data source they have so they must show the bug prices or nothing.

though I still see nothing fishy on bitcoin wisdom at the moment.

[JayJuanGee]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.

Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits.. 

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable. 

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively. 

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.

[edwardspitz]

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:


As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy.

Bitcoinwisdom has stated that the bug is on Huobi but that is the only data source they have so they must show the bug prices or nothing.

though I still see nothing fishy on bitcoin wisdom at the moment.

My image did not work but try this http://imgur.com/EI1rtfK 

I don't think there is anything wrong with bitcoin wisdom. It is the trading that is taking place that i find odd: A dump is made so that the price reaches 3540. A few moments later all traders agree that 3540 is both the perfect price to sell at and buy at. It must be a machine/script. But why???

[shmadz]

IRS Says Bitcoin is Property, Not Currency
In a notice, the IRS said that it generally would treat Bitcoin held by investors much like stock or other intangible property. If the virtual currency is held for investment, any gains would be treated as capital gains, meaning they could be subject to lower tax rates.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-490994/

Probably willful confusion on the govenment side, just like the central bank reports.

It is not a currency, because it is not a generally used medium of exchange, ok, but it is money.

It is not virtual, it is complete, full, real, tangible money.

The expression "virtual currency" should really not be used for bitcoin, cryptocurrency is better, but the best name is cryptomoney.

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

[edwardspitz]

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:


As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy.

Bitcoinwisdom has stated that the bug is on Huobi but that is the only data source they have so they must show the bug prices or nothing.

though I still see nothing fishy on bitcoin wisdom at the moment.

My image did not work but try this http://imgur.com/EI1rtfK  

I don't think there is anything wrong with bitcoin wisdom. It is the trading that is taking place that i find odd: A dump is made so that the price reaches 3540. A few moments later all traders agree that 3540 is both the perfect price to sell at and buy at. It must be a machine/script. But why???

Here is the chart from Huobi for the same period:


Image link: http://imgur.com/gueKpEW

Lots of volume but basically no variation in price.

[derpinheimer]

The largest volume spike in that period is just about 100BTC.

It could easily be two small walls right next to each other. Happens on USD markets frequently.

[JayJuanGee]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment. 

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000. 

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.

Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits.. 

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable. 

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively. 

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year. 

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal).  Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund. 

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

[knightcoin]

I was also looking at the chart on Bitcoinwisdom. The chart on https://www.huobi.com/ shows the same thing.

Here is the section that puzzles me:


As mentioned the graph on Huobi shows the same thing, so unless they also have a bug I find it a bit fishy.

Bitcoinwisdom has stated that the bug is on Huobi but that is the only data source they have so they must show the bug prices or nothing.

though I still see nothing fishy on bitcoin wisdom at the moment.

My image did not work but try this http://imgur.com/EI1rtfK  

I don't think there is anything wrong with bitcoin wisdom. It is the trading that is taking place that i find odd: A dump is made so that the price reaches 3540. A few moments later all traders agree that 3540 is both the perfect price to sell at and buy at. It must be a machine/script. But why???

Here is the chart from Huobi for the same period:


Image link: http://imgur.com/gueKpEW

Lots of volume but basically no variation in price.

Sounds like algo trading stress test, in HFT theses algoritms sometimes are used to break futures contracts ... algo are looking when controled variable diverges, etc.. at least it was what occurr to my mind now, pehaps because I am reading a book, about "mini dark pools" ...

[TERA]

1D ichimoku seems to indicate that if $625 is or has been broken during/after NEXT week, then the trend has reversed. 3D MACD would probably agree as well.

If your charts, lines, mac d's etc would actually be working you would be a billionaire by now. You still don't understand why you're not?

Wow I cannot even post a bullish TA now without getting flak?

FYI I have outperformed the bitcoin market by 10,000%, meaning if I bought and held I'd be up 400%in fiat value, but instead I'm up 40,000%. The problem was I started with a very small capital.

To me, that means that you have gotten 4,000 times return on your initial investment.  

Accordingly, if you started with $1,000, you now have $400,000.  

I wished I could figure out how to get those kinds of returns, but I do NOT want to work too hard... I'm thinking that there's gotta be some luck involved, also... .

It's a claimed 400X return, not a 4,000X return, but she pulls~ 10% fiat out every three months or so, so I suspect actual returns (which should be calculated to include those funds) are much lower. Correct me if I'm wrong, TERA.

Yeah... sorry for the contradiction.. I did mean 400x returns (not 4,000x)... 1,000 transformed into 400,000 = 400x

If someone is withdrawing every 3 months, too, then doesn't that cause less calculation regarding the initial capital... b/c anything withdrawn takes away from the initial investment, then thereafter, all you are playing with (after you retrieve your initial investment) is profits..  

That would also be a nice position to be in, but if trading is your full time occupation (ONLY source of income), then the question may be is the amount that you have contained therein sustainable.  

I think that a lot of us would like to get to the point (if we are NOT already there) to be able to withdraw whatever percentage of income that we need our invested funds are generally earning more than we are needing to withdraw.. and best if that could be accomplished to a large degree passively rather than actively.  

Currently, I'm only at about 41 BTC, so I do NOT expect to get to that point in the BTC world, anytime soon.

By the way, in order to get to a fairly decent passive income stream from an investment , a lot of investment advisors suggest being able to withdraw from one's investment fund at less than 4% per year... with the assumption that on average the fund will be earning more than 4% per year.  

I calculate that having an investment fund of about $1 million would sustain about $3.3k per month income (withdrawal).  Of course if your investment happens to be earning, on average, more than 4% per year, then you could afford to withdraw more than 4% per year.. and still maintain the balance of the fund.  

Also, it is NOT really easy to live well on $3.3K per month.... so there may be desires to build up the investment fund somewhat higher or to figure out how to receive better than 4% per year earnings on that fund.... and yes needing to account for inflation too, can eat into one's spending power.

I am hoping to get better than 4% per year average returns with bitcoins.... but as I said above, my nest egg is currently, NOT very large in the BTC world.

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

[edwardspitz]

The largest volume spike in that period is just about 100BTC.

It could easily be two small walls right next to each other. Happens on USD markets frequently.

Ok, I see.

When it happened yesterday the largest volume-spike was 600 BTC over a 5 min. period (on average maybe 250 BTC every 5 minutes). The price was almost flat for 60 minutes, and the total volume was around 3000 BTC. There was a little variation in price in that period (between 3530 and 3534).

But I understand it can occur due to buy/sell walls very close together. Thanks for taking your time to explain.

[aminorex]

That was a nearly perfect 76.4% retracement of the dump.

[aminorex]

just noticed that my favorite log baseline crossed over 500.  rising almost $4/diem now.  crosses the current price on 12 Apr.  crosses ATH on 9 Jul at a rate of $8/diem.

[Richy_T]

And here I thought you were just some silly dude who tried to ban twitter by blocking DNS, but I really like the way you put that.

I will now steal it for my signature. Thanks Erdogan

Actually, "Virtual currency" is pretty correct for Bitcoin. There are no bitcoins, only the transfer of bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

Surely, each of us personalizes our diversification to our level of confidence and risk tolerance, and our needs, expenses, efficiencies and luck will likely vary.

Bitcoin occupies less than 5% of my total investment, but probably more than 20% of my arguably liquid investments.  these amounts are NOT easy to calculate - especially, if some assets are NOT liquid and their value may NOT be truly known until such liquidation has been carried out.

From your recent posts, it appears that you may be diversifying to some extent out of BTC - and  me, on the contrary, I am slowly increasing my BTC holdings and the percentage of my total BTC holdings. 

Since I am a fairly newbie to BTC, I continue to monitor and learn about it, and based on my learning and monitoring of BTC, I may decide to alter my overall strategy and/or the percentage of my BTC holdings... but currently, i am thinking that it is looking good to continue to add to my BTC investment(s)...  at least for a couple of years .. subject to reconsiderations along the way.
 

[billyjoeallen]

I started with X, and now I have 400*X. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with how much I've withdrawn.

I was previously on a schedule of withdrawing about 20% every 3 months. However, now, for the first time ever, I have withdrawn 50% and split my funds entirely in half - 50% remain in btc and the btc markets, and 50% is back on earth. This will add a small setback to the exponential growth of my funds. However, I had to do this to:
1. Pay my taxes
2. Diversify in preparation for a potential economic collapse.
3. Lock in the ability to support myself and pay expenses for 1-2 years.
4. Buy some business equipment.
5. I wanted to open a brokerage account to try my hand in daytrading stocks/forex/futures. With this type of account I can still potentially exponentially grow these funds but they are not locked in as paper gains in the btc world.
I am now considering real estate investments also, but have not allocated any funds for it.

No, my primary occupation is not trading or finance. I am a software developer.

It's just hard to believe that you effectively doubled up 9X in a row to get returns like that. Did you use leverage on bitfinex? Borrow BTC to short it? Outperforming the market 400X is an extraordinary claim. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence and I have yet to see much evidence. Nothing personal.

[KeyserSoze]

So, since the U.S. declared Bitcoin property not money, how soon should Karpeles expect his Dwolla cash back? He was only selling property.

[Davyd05]

So, since the U.S. declared Bitcoin property not money, how soon should Karpeles expect his Dwolla cash back? He was only selling property.

Shrem wasn't laundering money lol  facking bureaucracies