Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday March 27Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-03-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3628 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 593 USD.
Plot legendOnce more, Huobi saw relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~728 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC), but not as much as yesterday. Today's data point had low but non-negligible weight (S = 9.349, W = 0.174). Since the last four data points (Mar/23--26) are fairly aligned, in spite of their low weight, I assumed a straight-line trend fitted to then by weighted least squares: A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3468.99, B = 39.69 (which is just a tad lower than the one used yesterday.)
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.12 CNY/USD (it was 6.12, 6.10, 6.11, 6.13 at the last four Slumber Times).
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-26, 00:10 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)
Huobi's predicted price: 3596 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3588 CNY
Error: 8 CNY (~1.31 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 589 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 584 USD
Error: 5 USD
NOTE: I wish to thank all the sellers who practically threw away thousands of precious bitcoins and all the buyers who wasted millions of dollars just to fullfill my prediction above.
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