Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

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[Bagatell]

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

[Asrael999]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store who had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

I would have used the example of shouting Fire in a crowded cinema - but you get the point across.

[Cassius]

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

I don't have one (it's always easier to criticise someone else's than come up with your own work). I think it's a reasonable model. The catch is that adoption is ultimately about getting Joe Public on board. Right now, most of the people who own bitcoins are hodlers or speculators. My guess is that both of those categories will own a lot more bitcoins at any given time than JP who wants to buy stuff with them. What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment. It's hard to estimate, though: how much do you think the average person will keep in bitcoin on full adoption?

[Bagatell]

What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment.

Going by SSs model, we are somewhat behind ourselves at the moment. Interesting times we live in.

[dnaleor]

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs

LOL

Thank you Sir. You saved the day !

There is definitely  a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the number of dinosaurs in this forum

Is that a Pimposaurus?

It's a pumposaurus

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

Don't worry, we're definitely heading back down to the low 300s. Teratheterrible and Mattheshat said so and they wouldn't lie 

Confirmed, Having spoken with the CEO of Huobi and also the EU I have some interesting insider tips. Huobi will be closing after loosing ~600k BTC and the EU will also ban bitcoin every couple of days for 4 months. Sub $300 is possible

So wait... you talked to the CEO of the EU?  Or you spoke with the EU itself?

[uhoh]

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

Don't worry, we're definitely heading back down to the low 300s. Teratheterrible and Mattheshat said so and they wouldn't lie 

Confirmed, Having spoken with the CEO of Huobi and also the EU I have some interesting insider tips. Huobi will be closing after loosing ~600k BTC and the EU will also ban bitcoin every couple of days for 4 months. Sub $300 is possible

So wait... you talked to the CEO of the EU?  Or you spoke with the EU itself?

Probably the latter. The EU is a sentient being.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs

LOL

Thank you Sir. You saved the day !

There is definitely  a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the number of dinosaurs in this forum

Is that a Pimposaurus?

It's a pumposaurus

There's one thing about this pumposaurus I don't like: it isn't even 2000 USD tall! I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

[dreamspark]

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

Don't worry, we're definitely heading back down to the low 300s. Teratheterrible and Mattheshat said so and they wouldn't lie 

Confirmed, Having spoken with the CEO of Huobi and also the EU I have some interesting insider tips. Huobi will be closing after loosing ~600k BTC and the EU will also ban bitcoin every couple of days for 4 months. Sub $300 is possible

So wait... you talked to the CEO of the EU?  Or you spoke with the EU itself?

The EU itself, I have it on good authority that it wants to protect the interest of the Euro and also the poor people of the EU who cant make and be responsible for their own investment decisions.

[sickpig]

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs

LOL

Thank you Sir. You saved the day !

There is definitely  a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the number of dinosaurs in this forum

Is that a Pimposaurus?

It's a pumposaurus

There's one thing about this pumposaurus I don't like: it isn't even 2000 USD tall! I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

in fact he used the wrong scale, he should have used the log one :-)

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

[...]
There's one thing about this pumposaurus I don't like: it isn't even 2000 USD tall! I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

in fact he used the wrong scale, he should have used the log one :-)

That's the point I was trying to make

[Adrian-x]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

Just think how many children went hungry after your shopping spree

[ag@th0s]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

So don't underestimate the fear people have of the tax authorities?  I don't think most bit-coiners do.  Aren't you undermining your own argument a bit - if half of *all the traders there* didn't want your dirty fiat because they were operating in the grey economy - what makes you think they won't be interested in cryptographically secure, potentially anonymous value transmission, whether thats BTC or something else.  Maybe you should get yourself a bitcoin and see what you can buy on the Rua Santa Ifigênia now

[Colonel Panic]

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies

Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nWWM8tTn84

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mythul]

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs

LOL

Thank you Sir. You saved the day !

There is definitely  a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the number of dinosaurs in this forum

Is that a Pimposaurus?

It's a pumposaurus

There's one thing about this pumposaurus I don't like: it isn't even 2000 USD tall! I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

in fact he used the wrong scale, he should have used the log one :-)

I think we need a much bigger dinosaur

[JimboToronto]

I'd prefer a log-pumposaurus

It would be too flat, like a crocodile.