Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dasein]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/

One of the most annoying things about Bitcoin is that it’s so convenient to make payments with it that sometimes it is extremely tempting to spend it and avoid the hassle of using dollars. One of the ways to help deal with the temptation to spend is to demand a Bitcoin discount at any store that accepts Bitcoin. This is perfectly reasonable because not only is the store lowering its own costs by using Bitcoin, but it is asking me to give up an inherently superior commodity.

Hoarders are more important than merchants. If a restaurant downtown starts accepting bitcoins, this does not necessarily create an incentive for anybody to buy more bitcoins. Why would anyone bother if they can still just use a credit card? If you can convince a merchant to accept bitcoins and stop accepting dollars, then I’ll be impressed.

Unless a merchant is offering something that cannot be bought for dollars, or at least offering a discount, he is only benefiting Bitcoin to the extent that he encourages more hoarding. If he immediately converts the bitcoins he receives as payment into dollars, and if his customers only buy bitcoins so as to spend them at his shop shortly thereafter, then neither has much direct effect on Bitcoin’s demand. The real hero is the hoarder behind the scenes who buys from the merchant and enables him to convert his payments into dollars.

Not to change the topic of the post.

But I think the main problem with bitcoin mass adoption is there are no guarantees against the owner in cases of theft and mis use.

The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees.  But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies.  They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense".

With btc if consumers have their wallets hacked or stolen easily the btc is pretty much gone and it will detract from mass adoption because there is no recourse for refunds.   And this will mean less people use it, and less incentive for merchants to adopt it, even though it is good saving for them versus credit card transaction costs.

This isn't an inherent problem with btc itself, it's more a function of a new market without sophisticated financial institutions that will protect the consumer against fraud and theft. The New York regulations make it all the more likely that those institutions will be created.

[samsonn25]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/

One of the most annoying things about Bitcoin is that it’s so convenient to make payments with it that sometimes it is extremely tempting to spend it and avoid the hassle of using dollars. One of the ways to help deal with the temptation to spend is to demand a Bitcoin discount at any store that accepts Bitcoin. This is perfectly reasonable because not only is the store lowering its own costs by using Bitcoin, but it is asking me to give up an inherently superior commodity.

Hoarders are more important than merchants. If a restaurant downtown starts accepting bitcoins, this does not necessarily create an incentive for anybody to buy more bitcoins. Why would anyone bother if they can still just use a credit card? If you can convince a merchant to accept bitcoins and stop accepting dollars, then I’ll be impressed.

Unless a merchant is offering something that cannot be bought for dollars, or at least offering a discount, he is only benefiting Bitcoin to the extent that he encourages more hoarding. If he immediately converts the bitcoins he receives as payment into dollars, and if his customers only buy bitcoins so as to spend them at his shop shortly thereafter, then neither has much direct effect on Bitcoin’s demand. The real hero is the hoarder behind the scenes who buys from the merchant and enables him to convert his payments into dollars.

Not to change the topic of the post.

But I think the main problem with bitcoin mass adoption is there are no guarantees against the owner in cases of theft and mis use.

The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees.  But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies.  They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense".

With btc if consumers have their wallets hacked or stolen easily the btc is pretty much gone and it will detract from mass adoption because there is no recourse for refunds.   And this will mean less people use it, and less incentive for merchants to adopt it, even though it is good saving for them versus credit card transaction costs.

This isn't an inherent problem with btc itself, it's more a function of a new market without sophisticated financial institutions that will protect the consumer against fraud and theft. The New York regulations make it all the more likely that those institutions will be created.

The NY rules only want more info on the buyers and sellers of the btc, in case they have to trace back to illegal activities.

They dont address wallet security. Imagine people having codes on their cellphones and losing them.  This is much easier than losing large amounts of cash or credit.

[Nightowlace]

Not really leveling expectations as much as commenting on it from a consumer standpoint. Why spend BTC and buy it back, when I can get cash back for using my credit card?

1. Because those perks are provided to you by the credit card company due to incredible interest rates they charge the user and the high fees they charge the retailer. It's a way for them to get you to open and keep a line of credit with them.

2. You're supporting the bitcoin ecosystem by doing so.

3. You're supporting the retailers who are accepting bitcoin and receiving the benefits of reduced to no transaction fees.

4. Most of us here are against the institution of credit, credit cards, banking, and the general practice of high interest rates, fees, and incurring debt beyond your income which forces you into using such devices to keep you in debt and keep the corrupt banking industry in billions of dollars in profits and control of most the worlds governments.

Oh and please save the "I used credit card and pay it off right away just to earn cash back/points" speech. If you actually do, you're one of a handful. Hence the billions of dollars in profits from those who don't.

[Richy_T]

The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees.  But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies.  They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense".

I think you misunderstand the status quo

Fraudulent Transactions
The most common cause for chargeback is fraudulent transactions. This happens when the credit card is used without the authorization and consent of the cardholder. In cases like these, the merchant is held solely responsible.

https://www.dalpay.com/en/support/chargebacks.html

Bitcoin provides a great advantage to the merchant in knowing that when they are paid, they are paid and when they ship their $1200 item out the door, they won't end up doing so for free.

Of course, this potentially puts the purchaser at a degree of risk. Expect to see commercial escrow services or merchant guarantors arise to take care of this.

[Marbit]

Not really leveling expectations as much as commenting on it from a consumer standpoint. Why spend BTC and buy it back, when I can get cash back for using my credit card?

1. Because those perks are provided to you by the credit card company due to incredible interest rates they charge the user and the high fees they charge the retailer. It's a way for them to get you to open and keep a line of credit with them.

2. You're supporting the bitcoin ecosystem by doing so.

3. You're supporting the retailers who are accepting bitcoin and receiving the benefits of reduced to no transaction fees.

4. Most of us here are against the institution of credit, credit cards, banking, and the general practice of high interest rates, fees, and incurring debt beyond your income which forces you into using such devices to keep you in debt and keep the corrupt banking industry in billions of dollars in profits and control of most the worlds governments.

Oh and please save the "I used credit card and pay it off right away just to earn cash back/points" speech. If you actually do, you're one of a handful. Hence the billions of dollars in profits from those who don't.

Yeah, I said aside from the "supporting bitcoin" attitude. If we're going to talk about real markets and real market incentives, the cult support doesn't matter.

Your points about debt are irrelevant, since BTC is not debt. Why would I spend my assets (BTC), when I can spend my assets ($$) by using a credit card and thereby get paid for it?

In fact, I'd prefer to hoard my BTC and spend my dollars.

[Richy_T]

4. Most of us here are against the institution of credit, credit cards, banking, and the general practice of high interest rates, fees, and incurring debt beyond your income which forces you into using such devices to keep you in debt and keep the corrupt banking industry in billions of dollars in profits and control of most the worlds governments.

I don't like credit cards but I'm not particularly "against" them. I expect Bitcoin credit (or debit) cards to arise as an adjunct to Bitcoin in fact. There are a few things that Bitcoin doesn't do well that would be a good niche for these services. The important thing is the Bitcoin core though.

[Sandia]

Yet Another Prediction (for those keeping score, I am 50% right and 50% wrong in my history):

I drew pretty lines on a chart to predict what the TA guys were thinking.  I got a nice triangle on 2hr-12hr charts that is closing in 24 hours or so.  Like at $625, some dumbass will drop a big short on Bitstamp in the next 12 hours and trigger a big drop.

Last time, we dropped right through the 610 support line with no hesitation.  This time we will drop through 560, and bounce off 550.

Don't blame me, blame the short.  Or even better, buy, buy, buy on the sell and bankrupt the short.

[Nightowlace]

Not really leveling expectations as much as commenting on it from a consumer standpoint. Why spend BTC and buy it back, when I can get cash back for using my credit card?

1. Because those perks are provided to you by the credit card company due to incredible interest rates they charge the user and the high fees they charge the retailer. It's a way for them to get you to open and keep a line of credit with them.

2. You're supporting the bitcoin ecosystem by doing so.

3. You're supporting the retailers who are accepting bitcoin and receiving the benefits of reduced to no transaction fees.

4. Most of us here are against the institution of credit, credit cards, banking, and the general practice of high interest rates, fees, and incurring debt beyond your income which forces you into using such devices to keep you in debt and keep the corrupt banking industry in billions of dollars in profits and control of most the worlds governments.

Oh and please save the "I used credit card and pay it off right away just to earn cash back/points" speech. If you actually do, you're one of a handful. Hence the billions of dollars in profits from those who don't.

Yeah, I said aside from the "supporting bitcoin" attitude. If we're going to talk about real markets and real market incentives, the cult support doesn't matter.

Your points about debt are irrelevant, since BTC is not debt. Why would I spend my assets (BTC), when I can spend my assets ($$) by using a credit card and thereby get paid for it?

In fact, I'd prefer to hoard my BTC and spend my dollars.

It works both ways you know? Why should retailers accept bitcoin? Except no transaction fee on a couple of purchases from a few internet geeks. Why spend the hours educating myself on it, make sure I'm compliant, etc etc.

[fonzie]

Yet another prediction.

Someone is accumulating big time, there are almost no sells happening beside those huge sells (probably into their own bids). As soon as the market gets bought up a few ask walls appear ~500BTC and soon after that a 500-1000 dump happens, with no real effect on the market other than stopping it from going up fast. If you watch the walls moving on bitcoinity you can see that they are changing pretty fast. Average bitcoiner (small fish) is not in selling mood these days. I think we will slowly go up and continue to see this behavior. When "they"  ( ) are done, one can epect to see larger and faster moves. There are pretty sophisticated bots active right now on Bitstamp (readding smaller bids all the time, pushing around walls...).  TA and even more the orderbook clearly looks bearish as fuck, but that´s what it should like during accumulation time.

Yours

Fonzie (aka the delusional bulltard)

Edit:

Just like now when asks to 590$ suddenly dropped from 750 to 250BTC

Edit2: bitcoincharts.com orderbook seems not to be working for Bitstamp anymore, however bitcoinity and bitcoinswidom show the same data. Bitfinex and OKcoin already haven´t been working there for a few weeks now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

Yet another prediction.

Someone is accumulating big time, there are almost no sells happening beside those huge sells (probably into their own bids). As soon as the market gets bought up a few ask walls appear ~500BTC and soon after that a 500-1000 dump happens, with no real effect on the market other than stopping it from going up fast. If you watch the walls moving on bitcoinity you can see that they are changing pretty fast. Average bitcoiner (small fish) is not in selling mood these days. I think we will slowly go up and continue to see this behavior. When "they"  ( ) are done, one can epect to see larger and faster moves. There are pretty sophisticated bots active right now on Bitstamp (readding smaller bids all the time, pushing around walls...).  TA and even more the orderbook clearly looks bearish as fuck, but that´s what it should like during accumulation time.

me likee, fonzie, you on something ?
But I fear that's somehow what's going on. Financial manipulation enters a new Era with bitcoin. No audits can save you.

[dasein]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/

One of the most annoying things about Bitcoin is that it’s so convenient to make payments with it that sometimes it is extremely tempting to spend it and avoid the hassle of using dollars. One of the ways to help deal with the temptation to spend is to demand a Bitcoin discount at any store that accepts Bitcoin. This is perfectly reasonable because not only is the store lowering its own costs by using Bitcoin, but it is asking me to give up an inherently superior commodity.

Hoarders are more important than merchants. If a restaurant downtown starts accepting bitcoins, this does not necessarily create an incentive for anybody to buy more bitcoins. Why would anyone bother if they can still just use a credit card? If you can convince a merchant to accept bitcoins and stop accepting dollars, then I’ll be impressed.

Unless a merchant is offering something that cannot be bought for dollars, or at least offering a discount, he is only benefiting Bitcoin to the extent that he encourages more hoarding. If he immediately converts the bitcoins he receives as payment into dollars, and if his customers only buy bitcoins so as to spend them at his shop shortly thereafter, then neither has much direct effect on Bitcoin’s demand. The real hero is the hoarder behind the scenes who buys from the merchant and enables him to convert his payments into dollars.

Not to change the topic of the post.

But I think the main problem with bitcoin mass adoption is there are no guarantees against the owner in cases of theft and mis use.

The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees.  But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies.  They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense".

With btc if consumers have their wallets hacked or stolen easily the btc is pretty much gone and it will detract from mass adoption because there is no recourse for refunds.   And this will mean less people use it, and less incentive for merchants to adopt it, even though it is good saving for them versus credit card transaction costs.

This isn't an inherent problem with btc itself, it's more a function of a new market without sophisticated financial institutions that will protect the consumer against fraud and theft. The New York regulations make it all the more likely that those institutions will be created.

The NY rules only want more info on the buyers and sellers of the btc, in case they have to trace back to illegal activities.

They dont address wallet security. Imagine people having codes on their cellphones and losing them.  This is much easier than losing large amounts of cash or credit.

The regulations address capital reserves and other consumer protections, and obtaining a license from the state reduces the risk for banks and insurance companies to transact in bitcoin.

[Nightowlace]

Banks and insurance companies

Just who I want to look out for.

[JorgeStolfi]

It works both ways you know? Why should retailers accept bitcoin? Except no transaction fee on a couple of purchases from a few internet geeks. Why spend the hours educating myself on it, make sure I'm compliant, etc etc.

For retailers it is quite easy, cheap, and risk-free to "accept bitcoins".  Last time I looked, Bitpay had an entry program that charged zero from the merchant and something like 1% from the customer, up to 100 US$/month.  At the next level, the merchant paid 30 US$/month flat (unless there were 0$ "bitcoin" payment in that month), with a much larger upper limit per month.  In any case the merchant did not have to handle or understand bitcoin, as he received just plain old dollars via bank transfer.  So he did not have all the risks and accounting headaches that he would have if he REALLY accepted bitcoins.

Coinbase gives merchants the option to REALLY receive some of the bitcoin, or keep it in their Coinbase accounts.  However I presume that, as regulations for bitcoin trading become more cumbersome, merchants will find that option less and less appealing.

By the way, I hope that everybody is now aware that buying bitcoins to pay a merchant that "accepts bitcoin" implies TWO bank transfer fees plus the Coinbase/Bitpay fee, whereas paying the merchant directly in dollars means just ONE bank transfer fee.  Ditto for paying with old bitcoins and then buying back the same amount to "restore the level".

Paying with bitcoins still only makes sense if you have bitcoins that were acquired for less than the current market value, and have decided to sell (without replacing them later).  The advantage, in that case, is that part of your purchase will be paid by the traders who buy the coins that Coinbase sells on the exchanges.

[JayJuanGee]

While i won't buy too much, I think ill be buying a little here and there. I use my coin on coinbase for spending purposes, then i buy back what I just spent. I think everyone should do that. Use expedia for hotels (that will be expanding) and overstock, and all others that take bitcoin. If you don't want to part with your coin, do what Im doing. Just replace it, coinbase has an automated feature for this.. quite cool.

Do they offer any discounts for using BTC? Just wondering. I can get cash back rewards for using my credit card to pay for that type of thing. Not that I don't want to support BTC (though I'm not sure spending via Coinbase supports BTC or not)....

I agree we should be using bitcoin as much as possible and auto buying back. That also helps stabilize the price of bitcoin as well if everyone is buying back what they spend.

As far as specifically asking for discounts because we are using bitcoin is a little unfair if you ask me. We want more mainstream use of bitcoin and asking retailers for discounts (at least in the states) is a little off putting. If they choose to offer great, however we should no expect it.
Just my two cents.

Nightowlace:  I agree with your general concept of buying back BTC when spending it;  however, I remain fairly skeptical about utilizing any auto buy-back system.  NONETHELESS, I would advise that investors, attempt to buy back soon before or after a purchase (hopefully within about the same week of the purchase, unless you are pretty confident about some major impending BTC price move that you want to use to your advantage).

[JayJuanGee]

Not really leveling expectations as much as commenting on it from a consumer standpoint. Why spend BTC and buy it back, when I can get cash back for using my credit card?

You don't ask such questions on this forum 

Stop spreading FUD, Jorge.  There is NO problem raising legitimate questions about how a person may be personally advantaged in spending money in each system. 

Certainly, the IRS tax guidance puts some damper for BTC holders to spend their BTC like currency, and my solution to NOT report any of my BTC spending is to buy back BTC soon within the time that I am spending it.  Surely, there may be reasons that a person would rather use a credit card over BTC... especially when tax incentives have been structured in such a way to discourage individuals from treating BTC as a currency.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-may-collaborate-visa-mobile-173454485.html + http://www.coindesk.com/visa-exec-network-support-bitcoin-payments/ + http://www.wired.com/2014/07/blockchain-back/ = ?

Equals a mystery?  

Are they related, and that is the mystery?    

It would be big news if such a mainstream payment system were to include bitcoin...

Do you believe that they are related, Ivanhoe?  or are you merely attempting to be especially optimistic regarding bitcoin's future?

[FUR11]

So the day closes at a calm and nice 0% change. Well, the rocket didn't lift up today, but that doesn't mean the rocket launch has been cancelled. It's merely postponed, when the rocket has even more fuel accumulated!!!

[JayJuanGee]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/

One of the most annoying things about Bitcoin is that it’s so convenient to make payments with it that sometimes it is extremely tempting to spend it and avoid the hassle of using dollars. One of the ways to help deal with the temptation to spend is to demand a Bitcoin discount at any store that accepts Bitcoin. This is perfectly reasonable because not only is the store lowering its own costs by using Bitcoin, but it is asking me to give up an inherently superior commodity.

Hoarders are more important than merchants. If a restaurant downtown starts accepting bitcoins, this does not necessarily create an incentive for anybody to buy more bitcoins. Why would anyone bother if they can still just use a credit card? If you can convince a merchant to accept bitcoins and stop accepting dollars, then I’ll be impressed.

Unless a merchant is offering something that cannot be bought for dollars, or at least offering a discount, he is only benefiting Bitcoin to the extent that he encourages more hoarding. If he immediately converts the bitcoins he receives as payment into dollars, and if his customers only buy bitcoins so as to spend them at his shop shortly thereafter, then neither has much direct effect on Bitcoin’s demand. The real hero is the hoarder behind the scenes who buys from the merchant and enables him to convert his payments into dollars.

Not to change the topic of the post.

But I think the main problem with bitcoin mass adoption is there are no guarantees against the owner in cases of theft and mis use.

The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees.  But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies.  They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense".

With btc if consumers have their wallets hacked or stolen easily the btc is pretty much gone and it will detract from mass adoption because there is no recourse for refunds.   And this will mean less people use it, and less incentive for merchants to adopt it, even though it is good saving for them versus credit card transaction costs.

This isn't an inherent problem with btc itself, it's more a function of a new market without sophisticated financial institutions that will protect the consumer against fraud and theft. The New York regulations make it all the more likely that those institutions will be created.

Whether the problem is inherent to BTC or NOT, as Samsonn25 mentioned, there can be considerable trepidation when individuals realize that they are bearing the costs of fraud or theft, rather than banks.... accordingly, cause a calculation NOT to want to retain value in BTC.....

Accordingly, I have considerable doubts that governmental regulations are going to truly protect individual bitcoin holders, at least NOT in the beginning....

Concedingly, there needs to develop various mechanisms to protect BTC holders from fraud, stealing and mistakes..... in order to increase their incentives to buy into the BTC infrastructure and to hold assets in BTC and to use BTC.