Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[profitgenerator212]

But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

You really think that you can outmaneuver DCG and other whales? I certainly hope that you don't plan on margin shorting this shit. Rest assured, the whales will quietly close their shorts before you and then squeeze you out of your short to buy their expensive coins at the top of the next sucker's rally. Good luck trying to figure out this volatile and illiquid market, that can be manipulated at the whim of whales. These "whales" don't even need to have a billion USD in fiat/BTC. A few 10s of millions of USD worth should do the trick, if that.  

It would be easy.

thing is, we have been hearing this EXACT same shit since the $32 "bubble"

shit, I sold 100 BTC at, wait for it, $13 each, to "lock in" profits

let's just say I am unlikely to listen to that kind of advise again

Not from me. I have been bullish on BTC until 2017. Now I think the bullish trend is about to end.

Don't be ridiculous.  No one is saying that the market is going go up forever, even though we are currently in an upwards trajectory and currently in a bull market.  Still way too fucking early to be saying that the bull market has come to an end, even though it could come to an end at any time...

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

There is such a thing as cut and paste, and there is also such a thing as explanation..  Apparently you are too good to attempt either one.

I really hate to explain myself multiple times, and I really dont care what you believe. I have made my case, now we wait and see what happens.

[Icygreen]

Seems legit.

 don't pay exchange fees when you travel to another country, etc.

Have you been able to exchange BTC to local currencies in SE Asia? If so, please share.  I'd be particularly interested in Thailand and Vietnam. Localbitcoin.com is not what I'm looking for but rather the ability to exchange with a gold shop/money changer type scenario.  When this happens bitcoin will be super useful to me.

[jojo69]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

I could go on, but the real point is that you seem to be accusing us of saying "it's different this time" when actually we are saying exactly the opposite

[rjclarke2000]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

This is a great theory here Torque. I like your thinking!

[profitgenerator212]

I could go on, but the real point is that you seem to be accusing us of saying "it's different this time" when actually we are saying exactly the opposite

So what are you implying that the USD will go into hyperinflation overnight?

That is silly to assume, it has plenty of backing, one of it is a huge military political influence. If the USD were to fall really the world would go with it basically.

So no the USD will not go into hyperinflation certainly not in the next 20-30 years.

[jojo69]

Normalcy bias

fine, just keep the QE coming

[nidya]

price going up for btc/usd

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

price going up for btc/usd

Welcome friend! What else do you see?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I used to see things. I just got sick of it.

[SERVERIA]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?   

[ShadowBCH]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?   

[Karartma1]

Trading wise this weekend looks very slow. Volumes are very low, it looks like everybody is taking a break. As others are saying I also see some kind of bullish pattern developing. Hopefully the worst is behind us. This is a long march and only a few coins will keep up  

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?  

Where do we sign for this?

[JayJuanGee]

meh, I don't even consider $100 swing tradable, my buy and sell positions are $800 apart

Maybe I am trading too much... hahahaha.. mine are currently $100 apart, and they will go to $200 by $5400 and then maybe I gotta work my way up to $800?.. maybe I can be at $800 when we are around $12k-ish?  then you will be at $3k increments, right?

[JayJuanGee]

Not from me. I have been bullish on BTC until 2017. Now I think the bullish trend is about to end.

It is quite likely that you are premature in your supposed assessment about the end of the bull market...

You could be correct by guessing, but the odds are that you are premature in your assessment about the end of the bull market.

Don't be ridiculous.  No one is saying that the market is going go up forever, even though we are currently in an upwards trajectory and currently in a bull market.  Still way too fucking early to be saying that the bull market has come to an end, even though it could come to an end at any time...

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

People say all kinds of shit.. and sounds like you are being selective in your attempt to spin what people are saying... and maybe even misreading them in your selective little spin.

There is such a thing as cut and paste, and there is also such a thing as explanation..  Apparently you are too good to attempt either one.

I really hate to explain myself multiple times, and I really dont care what you believe. I have made my case, now we wait and see what happens.

You have made no case.  You merely asserted some conclusions, and you ascribed a certain level of high certainty to your conclusions and you are likely both premature and ascribing too much certainty to your conclusions without backing them up with anything - either facts or logic.

[Searing]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?  

You are not taking in the 300 to 400 forks (like bitcoin cash) that would come into play (evil hairless primates that we are all..you can bet on it) at those sky high prices

what a cluster and wow what FUD if Bitcoin went to 10k by the 1st of the year...bankers running in the street tearing hair out ..would be a hoot....

Meanwhile...btc seems to want to go sideways and slink for a bit..price wise that is.....(people being mean to btc now .....sad)...

(bicoin, you mesmerizing wench...playing hard to get are you?)....

[FractalUniverse]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

[gembitz]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?  

You are not taking in the 300 to 400 forks (like bitcoin cash) that would come into play (evil hairless primates that we are all..you can bet on it) at those sky high prices

what a cluster and wow what FUD if Bitcoin went to 10k by the 1st of the year...bankers running in the street tearing hair out ..would be a hoot....

Meanwhile...btc seems to want to go sideways and slink for a bit..price wise that is.....(people being mean to btc now .....sad)...

(bicoin, you mesmerizing wench...playing hard to get are you?)....

there is no fork... there can only be one bitcoin brah :-D~monero im finally starting to see hella radarz tho+ethics of the original bitcoiners?..hmmm

[Ibian]

A retard I'm dealing with just sent me a transfer with a fee of 5 sat/byte. With an unconfirmed parent. Fuck.

[Meuh6879]

https://bitcoincore.org/en/releases/0.14.0/

Minimum Fee Rate Policies

Since the changes in 0.12 to automatically limit the size of the mempool and improve the performance of block creation in mining code it has not been important for relay nodes or miners to set -minrelaytxfee.

With this release the following concepts that were tied to this option have been separated out:

- incremental relay fee used for calculating BIP 125 replacement and mempool limiting. (1000 satoshis/kB)
- calculation of threshold for a dust output. (effectively 3 * 1000 satoshis/kB)
- minimum fee rate of a package of transactions to be included in a block created by the mining code.

If miners wish to set this minimum they can use the new -blockmintxfee option. (defaults to 1000 satoshis/kB)

[Torque]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

Well, my unscientific back-of-the-napkin model does kind of take havings roughly every 4 years into account. It sort of assumes that we have a halving event 6-12 months before a new major run up. Otherwise, I think it would take roughly 10X more accounts for a 10X increase in price floor.

Even with an exponential growth model, it seems that there is a throttle bottleneck to how fast Bitcoin popularity and usage will ramp. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that participating in the Bitcoin ecosystem is neither free (must pay-to-play) nor currently open to everyone (e.g., in order to get access to btc through main brokerage channels you must be 18+ years old, you must have a bank account, you must supply proper identification, etc., etc.). As well as the skeptical, tentative nature of an emerging new asset class, so much media press negativity, draconian regulations, etc.