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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 4 (3.3%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (0.8%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (1.7%)
$85K to $90K - 10 (8.3%)
$90K to $95K - 15 (12.4%)
$95K to $100K - 27 (22.3%)
>$100K - 62 (51.2%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26585963 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
HairyMaclairy
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December 26, 2017, 08:30:36 PM

Bcash is controlled by a single person

false

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and has almost zero independent nodes.

false

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It is wholly centralized and can be taken out by the Chinese government at any moment.  

No more so than Bitcoin Segwit.

1.  Jihan Wu personally selected the EDA fix from five proposals.  He said so himself.  I can’t currently find the link.  Perhaps someone else can.

2. Bitcoin ABC nodes run almost exclusively on cloud servers.  Over 50% are on Alibaba servers alone.  The 2X email list is full of exhortations for members to spin up additional Sybil nodes. https://goo.gl/images/NT1gto

3.  The fact that the code base is controlled by Jihan Wu, and the complete lack of independent nodes means that Jihan Wu can easily be leaned on by the Chinese State to do anything they want with Bcash.  Roger Ver has repeatedly said that “non-mining nodes only get in the way”.  

4.  You have not addressed the issue that if Bitcoin increased its block size, the blocks would almost immediately be full again with no net reduction in congestion.  

I invite you to answer the points above with more detail than just “false”.  
jbreher
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December 26, 2017, 08:32:56 PM

It it is just the "going full bigblocktard" stuff which makes me question and try to understand his rationale on that decision. I think maybe, just maybe, there is something to learn there... If I wanted to live in a echo chamber I would just talk to myself and ignore everyone else that (even slightly) disagrees with my opinions.

Bravo. You're already head and shoulders above the typical WO denizen, for just allowing that perhaps there is an alternate valid viewpoint. Far too many here are merely religious zealots.

Quote
I can't neither consider his "XMAS giving" as irrational. For sure there is some obvious inconsistency in the fiat value of that one BTC from past years

Who cares about fiat value? If you think of it as a ratio to my wealth it makes perfect sense. I have more than I'll be able to spend already. It's my progeny - they'll be getting the bulk of it eventually. I'm training them to inherent dynastic wealth (not that I have any experience in such, though I seem to be doing okay so far).
d_eddie
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December 26, 2017, 08:35:14 PM

Gigantic OT, apologies in advance.

I saw a billboard sign outside a hospital recently that said they were researching why instrumental musicians recover from strokes appreciably faster than average.

Instrumental musicians? I sense a tautology.
(For the unaware: it's an inside joke about singers  Wink)
AmazonStuff
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December 26, 2017, 08:35:35 PM

H&S pattern
JayJuanGee
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December 26, 2017, 08:35:53 PM

if you consider his methodology in trading, that would certainly not be consistent with folks having either 5 digits or even 4 digits of BTC.

What is your rationale for claiming that my trading strategy is inconsistent with such a postulated stash size? Do you think such strategies work only for minnows?

I'm not saying that such strategy does not work.

Like I said before, it seems like a BIG waste of time, unless you have a bot or something. 

You claim to NOT have a bot, and you claim that such strategy is not a waste of time. 

So, we merely have differing opinions, yet I just think 4 digits, would be $16 million of trading capital... sure you do not need to trade all of the capital, but 4 digits still has a certain quantity of value that would seem to realign incentives in terms of how you would be spending your time and whether you want to make some of the relatively smaller amounts on smaller intervals or to play the larger intervals for better time management.   

By the way, at the beginning of 2017, 4 digits would have been just breaching into $1million, depending upon how high into 4 digits the person would be, and 5 digits would be starting at $10million of asset value, and i suppose at the beginning of 2017, it may have made some sense for someone in the lower 4 digits to still be stacking up value and seemed some purpose in higher frequency and smaller interval trading, perhaps.

Anyhow, do whatever you like, even if you were to have 4 digits or more.. I still think that such small interval trading is inconsistent with 4 digits or more of wealth accumulation, but you seem to do several things that seem quite inconsistent with regular kinds of logic.   Tongue
nikauforest
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December 26, 2017, 08:41:00 PM

H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
AmazonStuff
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December 26, 2017, 08:42:26 PM

H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
My target too
TERA2
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December 26, 2017, 08:52:46 PM

Were there any more shuttle launches while I was out?
ivomm
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December 26, 2017, 09:02:23 PM

H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
My target too
Ew, poor trolls! You are still dreaming you can influence the price by such noob posts  Grin You came out of your mouse holes for a little while just to hear the king lion BTC roar and then back to your holes for months. Let me guess: your next dream will be drop from 30K to 20K.  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
AmazonStuff
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December 26, 2017, 09:06:12 PM

H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
My target too
Ew, poor trolls! You are still dreaming you can influence the price by such noob posts  Grin You came out of your mouse holes for a little while just to hear the king lion BTC roar and then back to your holes for months. Let me guess: your next dream will be drop from 30K to 20K.  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Please cross 17 750 and I will completely agree with you
jbreher
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December 26, 2017, 09:14:21 PM
Last edit: December 26, 2017, 09:40:39 PM by jbreher

I have always presumed jbreher is probably at least in the 4 digits BTC, maybe even in the (low) 5's.... Which is why I have always tried to understand why he decided to go the "wrong way" (Jihan/Ver) with so much at stake Smiley

I haven't worked out estimates of jbreher's (or anyone else's) stash, but the man strikes me as a rational thinker with much at stake since a long time. So I also tried to understand the reasons for his choice, and I asked him explicitly. Unfortunately, his explanations with regard to bigblockery/Verism etc. always came short. Disappointing underperformance for a good poster, accurate checker of facts, numerical literate such as he is.

What more reason do you need other than the fact that the current blocksize limitation is destroying the user experience thereby constraining adoption?
You seem to like BCH a lot, which IMO is not a rational strategy. This dissonance is unresolved as yet. A few reasons:

- BCH doesn't fix transaction malleabilty,

Transaction malleability is not a problem in practice. Any of its effects are easily mitigated.

FWIW, though, the majority opinion within the Bitcoin Cash community is that we will implement a malleability fix. When higher priority issues are in the rearview.

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ruling out L2 solutions

No. While it is true that eliminating malleability simplifies known L2 solutions, in no way prevents them.

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which are the scaling solution in the medium (possibly long) term.

Perhaps. Though I point out that any transaction on any known L2 is by definition not a Bitcoin transaction. Accordingly, less interesting.

Any L2 solution proven in practice -- including being free of negative side effects -- is likely to be picked up by the Bitcoin Cash chain.

Quote
- BCH is controlled by a cartel.

No more so than Bitcoin Segwit. Less so in fact. Six independent leading implementations of non-mining, fully validating wallets (often mis referred to as 'nodes') as opposed to Bitcoin Segwit's Core implementation's market dominance.

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Their coders are clueless.

Again, simply false.

Quote
The cartel is likely under the heavy hand of PBOC.

Again, no more so than Bitcoin Segwit. The miner population is identical between the two chains.

Quote
They use guerrilla tactics (esp. transaction spam)

Well, here you have a point. We really don't know who 'they' is, but I must admit that it is likely that some bigblockers are creating multitudinous low-value transactions on the Bitcoin Segwit chain. Other explanations are also rational, though perhaps unlikely.

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to gain control.

What exactly do you mean by this?

Quote
- Big blocks will stifle adoption.

If you believe that the measure of adoption is number of non-mining, fully-validating wallets, then you may have a point. However, it has been demonstrated to my satisfaction that non-mining, fully-validating wallets have fuck-all to do with network health.

Further, I believe it likely that massive adoption will lead to huge numbers of nodes - naturally. Every common consumer has little reason to run such a non-mining, fully-validating wallet. You know who does? Merchants who have a need to verify that their purchasers are actually broadcasting valid transactions for the goods and services they are purchasing. More usable chain -> more users -> more incentive to take Bitcoin in commerce -> more merchants -> more need to verify transactions -> more validating wallets.

You know what really stifles adoption? A congested, expensive, time-wasting, unreliable Bitcoin Segwit.

Quote
Yes, that's the old "Raspberry pi in rural Afghanistan" argument. Even I, not in rural Afghanistan, would stop my own homespun node (not a pi though) if pressed by bandwidth and storage limits.

Testing has demonstrated that a typical 'home computer' on a typical 'domestic broadband' connection can handle up to 100 tx/s with no architectural changes to the satoshi client, and 500 tx/s merely by fixing that client's broken threading implementation.

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"Be your own bank" implies the ability to run your own full verifying node.

Well, no. It most certainly does not. At least I can't see any prerequisite there. How do you figure?

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- More adoption will come when we have a scalable system. Big blocks aren't scalable.

Big blocks -- by definition -- are scalable.

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You know all these things already. You are too intelligent not to see the logical implications. So, my fuzzy inference is: you have other reasons. Not saying you are necessarily a paid shill, although it can't be ruled out. The "more reason" I was (and am) asking of you is an effective, documented rebuttal of my points or some subjective reason that goes beyond "I like big big big! Blocks big, me happy!" Something like "I was bitten by a small block when I was a child, try to understand my shock" would be a little better, but as you understand, still not quite satisfactory.

Yeah. We've already discussed these very points, have we not? Why you continue to ignore my replies is beyond my ken.
jbreher
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December 26, 2017, 09:17:09 PM

To add to the above, the complete pointlessness of increasing block size when those larger blocks will immediately be filled again and congestion will be just as bad as before.  

Bald assertion unsupported by evidence.

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Yet we continue to build roads. How can such a thing be explained, given the infallibility of the Lewis-Mogridge position?
Toxic2040
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December 26, 2017, 09:22:41 PM

Were there any more shuttle launches while I was out?






Nope..nothing going on around here.
jbreher
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December 26, 2017, 09:29:31 PM

1.  Jihan Wu personally selected the EDA fix from five proposals.  He said so himself.  I can’t currently find the link.  Perhaps someone else can.

First time that I have seen anyone make such a concrete claim. So certainly, you're willing to dredge up an actual quote?

Quote
2. Bitcoin ABC nodes run almost exclusively on cloud servers.  Over 50% are on Alibaba servers alone.  The 2X email list is full of exhortations for members to spin up additional Sybil nodes. https://goo.gl/images/NT1gto

'Almost exclusively'? News to me. Mine runs on a machine that is right at my ankles at the moment.

Is that illegible chart supposed to support your over 50% claim?

What relevance do you assert the 2x email list has to do with Bitcoin Cash?

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3.  The fact that the code base

A) there is no 'the code base'. There are at least five independent wallet implementations that interoperate on the Bitcoin Cash chain.

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is controlled by Jihan Wu,

B) lack of supporting evidence duly noted. Of which codebase do you speak?

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and the complete lack of independent nodes

C) that's just crazy talk. Do you get your talking points directly from Dragon's Den?

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means that Jihan Wu can easily be leaned on by the Chinese State to do anything they want with Bcash.  

D) While this may be true, it is no less true for Bitcoin Segwit.

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Roger Ver has repeatedly said that “non-mining nodes only get in the way”.  

E) Something tells me that you have provided an incomplete quote (further, it looks like actually a non-quote, though could easily be something neary identical to something he may have said). As far as the health of the blockchain, non-mining fully-validating nodes provide no benefit to the network, this is true.

Quote
4.  You have not addressed the issue that if Bitcoin increased its block size, the blocks would almost immediately be full again with no net reduction in congestion.  

Bald assertion unsupported by evidence. Why were blocks not full from the genesis block onward? We only hit persistently full about a year ago. For your 'instantly full' theory to be consistent, it must have some explanation for this fact.
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December 26, 2017, 09:39:26 PM

Blablabla

FUD
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December 26, 2017, 09:59:19 PM


I like jbreher's posts. Without his posts we would have nothing but BTC cheerleaders here.
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December 26, 2017, 10:05:23 PM


I like jbreher's posts. Without his posts we would have nothing but BTC cheerleaders here.

That’s like saying I love the big fat hairy guy in the corner of the strip club. If it wasn’t for him there would be just amazing tits and ass.

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December 26, 2017, 10:07:02 PM

$18K-$20K me thinks. Xmas presents are already purchased, and we go up from here. Good luck!
BlindMayorBitcorn
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December 26, 2017, 10:10:34 PM

...I can't begin to describe what I just read...

Dude. I don't like ignoring people, but holy shit man... You're really testing my patience with your constant BCH shilling.

I reckon it might be time for you to fuck off, all proper-like, along with some of these other shills that are crapping up this thread.

I was going to start refuting your "because-I-said-so" counterpoints, but just had to spew out this verbal diarrhea of disapproval because I'm just shellshocked at the stupidity I've just read from you.

Christ man. What the fuck are you even doing here ?

I like jbreher's posts. Without his posts we would have nothing but BTC cheerleaders here.

Says the BCH cheerleader.

I'm really trying to stay apolitical, but I'm at a total loss with jbreher. It's like that guy in Florida that insisted on eating his own face. I just can't even.
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December 26, 2017, 10:10:58 PM

- BCH doesn't fix transaction malleabilty,
Transaction malleability is not a problem in practice. Any of its effects are easily mitigated.

FWIW, though, the majority opinion within the Bitcoin Cash community is that we will implement a malleability fix. When higher priority issues are in the rearview.
ruling out L2 solutions
No. While it is true that eliminating malleability simplifies known L2 solutions, in no way prevents them.
Preventing them to the point of making them too hard to implement reliably - at least, as of now. If the emergency situation grants hurrying to hardfork a blocksize change, why not fix transaction malleability first?


which are the scaling solution in the medium (possibly long) term.
Perhaps. Though I point out that any transaction on any known L2 is by definition not a Bitcoin transaction. Accordingly, less interesting.

Any L2 solution proven in practice -- including being free of negative side effects -- is likely to be picked up by the Bitcoin Cash chain.
Less interesting, but isn't the point about functionality rather than academic interest?

- BCH is controlled by a cartel.
No more so than Bitcoin Segwit. Less so in fact. Six independent leading implementations of non-mining, fully validating wallets (often mis referred to as 'nodes') as opposed to Bitcoin Segwit's Core implementation's market dominance.
Offhand innuendo, pff. The attitude behind this reply is one of the reasons I got tired of replying.  I am referring to the number of active developers (not just the ones with commit rights!). The fact that one client is more popular on the main bitcoin fork doesn't mean it's controlled by a cartel. Open source development and free client choice produced this result.

Their coders are clueless.
Again, simply false.
To me, the mess they made with the fork and the EDA is the mark of incompetence. If it weren't for some of the Core developers, I imagine they would still be there trying to figure out "why the hell doesn't it work, hurr durr?"

The cartel is likely under the heavy hand of PBOC.
Again, no more so than Bitcoin Segwit. The miner population is identical between the two chains.
Another prime example of offhand innuendo in my probably biased opinion - and, most importantly, factually incorrect for all I know. Nearly all miners for BCH are in China. Jihan is a Chinese citizen who no doubt is scared shitless of the Gubment and its appendices (like PBOC). Jihan can shut off the whole merry-go-round at the touch of a button - by just restraining his support (like "miner hardware shall only be paid in BCH from now on") or by whispering a few nice words to select clients (big miners). All it takes is the Party to make him an offer he can't refuse.


to gain control.
What exactly do you mean by this?
I mean taking control of Bitcoin by replacing it with Bcash. By doing so, developers would be under Jihan's, Ver's (and PBOC's) thumb. Censorship can happen. Moderate (or unreasonable!) inflation can be programmed as a "fair reward" for miners (most likely friends of the Party), who would become something like a miniature Central Bank, with similar privileges and arbitrary power. Anything can be perpetrated easily, if full nodes become so few as to be irrelevant.

- Big blocks will stifle adoption.
If you believe that the measure of adoption is number of non-mining, fully-validating wallets, then you may have a point. However, it has been demonstrated to my satisfaction that non-mining, fully-validating wallets have fuck-all to do with network health.
It hasn't been demonstrated to my satisfaction, though. Some things show their value only when they are sorely missed. Full nodes are one of these things IMO.


Further, I believe it likely that massive adoption will lead to huge numbers of nodes - naturally. Every common consumer has little reason to run such a non-mining, fully-validating wallet.
Depends how much they're holding, and how much they care about rules that preserve the system their wealth depends upon.

You know who does? Merchants who have a need to verify that their purchasers are actually broadcasting valid transactions for the goods and services they are purchasing.
Right, they do too.

Yes, that's the old "Raspberry pi in rural Afghanistan" argument. Even I, not in rural Afghanistan, would stop my own homespun node (not a pi though) if pressed by bandwidth and storage limits.
Testing has demonstrated that an average 'home computer' on an average 'domestic broadband' connection can handle up to 100 tx/s with no architectural changes to the satoshi client, and 500 tx/s merely by fixing that client's broken threading implementation.
My bandwidth can't. Even in "civilized" nations, some areas can't devote all that bandwidth to a single household - if such significant bandwidth is there in the first place.


"Be your own bank" implies the ability to run your own full verifying node.
Well, no. It most certainly does not. At least I can't see any prerequisite there. How do you figure?
See the point above, before "merchants".


- More adoption will come when we have a scalable system. Big blocks aren't scalable.
Big blocks -- by definition -- are scalable.
The number of bytes per se is scalable, of course. It's the resulting solution that doesn't scale well.


Yeah. We've already discussed these very points, have we not? Why you continue to ignore my replies is beyond my ken.
Not ignoring, but I feel stuck in a loop and it's bad for my health!  Tongue
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