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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.9%)
7/28 - 11 (10.1%)
8/4 - 16 (14.7%)
8/11 - 7 (6.4%)
8/18 - 6 (5.5%)
8/25 - 8 (7.3%)
After August - 60 (55%)
Total Voters: 109

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26466375 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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December 28, 2017, 11:37:40 PM

There, I sold .01BTC. That should make this down trend reverse. Roll Eyes

Same feeling here. I need to sell something for price to go up again.


Seems crazy as fuck to see guys in this thread doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing.. .


Crazy


Fuck

Each of us, reading this thread, should realize that we buy on the way down and sell on the way up, not the opposite.

Helrow??

Agreed! Panic selling when price going down is the noobs mistake.

(edit: though I know the feeling very well of doing a trade and then the price going the other way just because you did it!  Wink  Grin )

Perhaps we finally agree about something... hahahahahaha   unless you got hit in the head by an asteroid over the christmas weekend?   Cheesy Cheesy



I'm curious if you hold all your bitcoin on an exchange ready for good moments to buy and sell?


Up until about early 2017, I used to keep about 50% of my bitcoin (including my bitcoin investment allocated funds - that converted to fiat) on exchanges, and I think that some of that was merely out of convenience in moving it around, and a kind of happen-stance - and could have also been motivated by some insecurities from myself and the bitcoin price regarding whether some kind of an event might cause me to want to liquidate a decent quantity of BTC all at once.

Seems that during this year, and perhaps, mostly in the past several months, I had to tweak my perspective, and even to redistribute a lot of my risk off of exchanges while still attempting to maintain my ongoing trading strategy of selling about 1% of the total value of my BTC for every 10% rise in bitcoin price (and to have that money and to use it to buy BTC back during likely price drops).  

Accordingly, my newer approach has been somewhat motivated by BTC price rises that went 3x to 4x beyond my previously most bullish of expectations, and so I have moved additional value off of exchanges, and I have further considered that I don't really need those BTC on exchanges anyhow, because it is not likely that I am going to sell more than a certain amount anyhow because I have tweaked some of my thinking regarding proportions of BTC to fiat that I am going to maintain in my BTC portfolio.

Right now, I have kept enough value on exchanges in order to mostly keep within my system.  I have enough BTC to sell up to about $35k - and a bit more in a few cases, and I have enough  dollars to buy down to about $3k, which would be about an 85% correction (which may also be a bit of an overkill, but I feel a bit of comfort to currently be prepared for such).  I also could move more value of BTC or dollars onto exchanges if either the price goes beyond reasonable expectations or if I decide to tweak my strategy a bit based on changes in my overall viewpoint(s).  

I think that the punchline is that currently, I have somewhere between 15% to 20% of total value on exchanges, as compared with my previous approximately 50% status.



My own trading style necessitates that I don't hold anything on an exchange, (because I have lost funds from exchange hacks which is not nice really and I decided not to risk it happening again).

I have had some losses too, yet I am considering that my strategy has allowed me to gain more than I lost, and maybe even playing some kind of role in both understanding and facilitating the existing bitcoin trading/market system.

I believe that active and interactive engagement does allow for a kind of learning that cannot come from a less engaging style - such as keeping all value in cold storage.

I don't have any beef with folks who choose to take the 100% cold storage approach because in the end that approach may result in very decent results for that person - including whatever timeline s/he may have for liquidating.



Also is selling any real amount of your stash a tax event? For me it is. This all makes trading in and out quite a difficult business potentially.

Yep.  Problematic area, and changing laws and differing between jurisdictions.

Because of these factors I only trade very infrequently, ie last time I bought in any decent amount bitcoin was about $300. I have cashed out some at a few different levels but because like I say tax makes me hesitate to do more when I otherwise might have.  But I might only trade once, twice or less in a year.

Yep.... Some of the laws are simply draconian... and accounting burdens and off putting because of their lack of clarity and varying interpretations that seem to differ from time to time.

However I do a lot more trading in and out using other crypto, mainly Dash with smaller amounts, mainly for fun, but also because I can profit pretty well generally. I chose Dash because I really like it but any other pair with decent liquidity could do it. This is good because most the time I don't need to get carried away thinking about fiat  and tax. I don't use leverage and so if price goes the wrong way I can be patient. I like bitcoin and Dash so holding either bags if fine for me.

Also, seems to be a matter of interpretation about whether trading crypto assets is materially different from trading fiat that has not been cashed out.  And, we can do what we believe is less burdensome in terms of accounting, I suppose.

Anyway thought I'd give you the chance to elaborate a bit more, which I'd be interested in hearing. Cheers

Of course, each of us have our experiences, and frequently, I am learning and tweaking my approach when I interact with posters and sometimes reconsider my approach in light of the varying approaches and viewpoints of others.  Hopefully, I have provided you some personal details that you consider helpful to your own thinking on the topic.
jojo69
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December 28, 2017, 11:37:47 PM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.

Which HW wallets do you like more? I have a ledger and have not used a Trezor.

here is a comparison

https://youtu.be/SKWYO3Qh79A
afbitcoins
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December 28, 2017, 11:38:16 PM


snip


Buying and selling dash is not a taxable event for you? How is that?

Well I understood you pay captial gains when there is a fiat gain in value at the time when you dispose it, ie sell it for fiat. I'm in the UK. I hope I got that right. If I have to proof every single trade between Dash and Bitcoin or whatever other crypto I don't know how on earth I could even start to do that  Huh Some exchanges I have used no longer even exist.



I sympathise, in UK too. 

Since HMRC advice is so sketchy (it goes back to a vague 2014 reference effectively saying 'we will treat it all on a case-by-case basis') we are in the dark.

I only cash out in BTC and only (originally) went in via BTC so, I am asking my accountant to simply list all fiat 'in' events and fiat 'out' events and hoping it will be just CGT.  But be aware they can see it as 'badge of trade' and charge as though it was income if they think you're a trader.

I am hoping if I cough up CGT and list only Bitcoin bought and sold and just pay up, they will accept it.

If not, I will find others here in the same position and suggest we club together to get a QC to fight HMRC - as paying 45% income tax will be too much to let pass.

I know you and I have different 'cryptos of choice' but we may end up in the same expensive boat, under the same threat of a massive tax bill.

Odds on they will just take the CGT, but if not...  Let's consider a fight - I think we can probably both afford to chip in for a legal case with others, which they won't have the staff or competence to want to bother with.

Sometimes Dashheads and Moneroans can perhaps find common cause ;-)


Hey kurious, Sounds similar to my take on it too. Yes I could team up with a Moneron for a cause like  that!

Cheers
El duderino_
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December 28, 2017, 11:38:41 PM
Last edit: December 29, 2017, 11:00:47 PM by micgoossens

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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MERRY XMAS TO Y'ALL     AND GOOD LUCK
JayJuanGee
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December 28, 2017, 11:40:29 PM

15125. Bought thy Fucking dip! Cheesy

Unfortunately I believe we might retest $13-14k.

Nailed it.

Look at you.

Just cannot resist patting yourself on the back for some nearly meaningless prediction that had about a 50% chance of happening.    Roll Eyes


Sure, once it happens, then it becomes 100% - but still remains a BIG

SO

FUCKING

WHAT?
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December 28, 2017, 11:43:03 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?
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December 28, 2017, 11:45:53 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST  
     
Gesnipp

MERRY XMAS TO Y'ALL     AND GOOD LUCK

Merry Xmas to you too, and a Happy New Year.
And thank you for these competitions you do.

mr angry
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December 28, 2017, 11:47:28 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Someone said one brand of hardware wallet only had enough memory to let you store a few altcoins on it in addition to your bitcoins. I can't remember what brand it was and have never tried them myself.
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December 28, 2017, 11:50:47 PM

Hey there,

I know that bitcoin is the most secure thing ever created  and that duo to his low speed verification/transaction. If bitcoin turns to be very quick, hes going to lose from his security and then the possibility to be hacked.

But i have a question for bitcoin old big holders: When the bitcoin lightning fork gonna happend: are you going to hold the same amount of bitcoin and bitcoin lightning or more bitcoin lithting or sell all and buy more bitcoin?

The fact is: you can make transaction for less than 1 cent in 1 to 3 seconds max.

For me: i gonna use bitcoin for most of my money saving as it is the most secure thing on planet for now, and hold some bitcoin lightning for small transactions. Also can use it for big transaction if i need the transaction to happend in a second.

So, what is your view/Strategy on it?

Seems ridiculous to speculate on strategy before the product is even released, and to suggest that there is some kind of different coin between bitcoin and bitcoin lightning, when no such duel products currently exists and does not even seem to be within the speculations about what is going to happen.

In other words, you seem to be attempting to spread misinformation about what the fuck is bitcoin, and currently there is only one bitcoin, and in the future, whether it has lighting or segwit or dimtwat attached to it, probably it is still just gonna be bitcoin , so I recognize no meaningful need to be attempting to confuse matters with speculation based on supposed distinguishing features based on developments that have not been deployed.  Am I missing something guys and gal?
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December 28, 2017, 11:51:39 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Dont know if worth but,

offline PC with offline Printer and original Wallet works fine for years now.

...if you are not too lazy to type sometimes a few things Smiley
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December 28, 2017, 11:54:44 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Zero Drawback!  Probably safest way to store your coins besides laser engraving the keys on a steel block and putting that in a fireproof vault.   Although, you could get hacked when putting those key's on a compromised computer to spend.  Not so with a Trezor.. doesn't matter if the computer is compromised.
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December 28, 2017, 11:56:23 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Dont know if worth but,

offline PC with offline Printer and original Wallet works fine for years now.

...if you are not too lazy to type sometimes a few things Smiley

I run Armory with watch only accounts. I have a virgin laptop that has never touched the internet for signing transactions offline. I got a ledger and and a Nano Blue earlier this year. I will keep the paper wallets as they are , but I do like the ledger products.
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December 28, 2017, 11:56:32 PM

There, I sold .01BTC. That should make this down trend reverse. Roll Eyes

Same feeling here. I need to sell something for price to go up again.


Seems crazy as fuck to see guys in this thread doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing.. .


Crazy


Fuck

Each of us, reading this thread, should realize that we buy on the way down and sell on the way up, not the opposite.

Helrow??

Agreed! Panic selling when price going down is the noobs mistake.

(edit: though I know the feeling very well of doing a trade and then the price going the other way just because you did it!  Wink  Grin )

Perhaps we finally agree about something... hahahahahaha   unless you got hit in the head by an asteroid over the christmas weekend?   Cheesy Cheesy



I'm curious if you hold all your bitcoin on an exchange ready for good moments to buy and sell?


Up until about early 2017, I used to keep about 50% of my bitcoin (including my bitcoin investment allocated funds - that converted to fiat) on exchanges, and I think that some of that was merely out of convenience in moving it around, and a kind of happen-stance - and could have also been motivated by some insecurities from myself and the bitcoin price regarding whether some kind of an event might cause me to want to liquidate a decent quantity of BTC all at once.

Seems that during this year, and perhaps, mostly in the past several months, I had to tweak my perspective, and even to redistribute a lot of my risk off of exchanges while still attempting to maintain my ongoing trading strategy of selling about 1% of the total value of my BTC for every 10% rise in bitcoin price (and to have that money and to use it to buy BTC back during likely price drops).  

Accordingly, my newer approach has been somewhat motivated by BTC price rises that went 3x to 4x beyond my previously most bullish of expectations, and so I have moved additional value off of exchanges, and I have further considered that I don't really need those BTC on exchanges anyhow, because it is not likely that I am going to sell more than a certain amount anyhow because I have tweaked some of my thinking regarding proportions of BTC to fiat that I am going to maintain in my BTC portfolio.

Right now, I have kept enough value on exchanges in order to mostly keep within my system.  I have enough BTC to sell up to about $35k - and a bit more in a few cases, and I have enough  dollars to buy down to about $3k, which would be about an 85% correction (which may also be a bit of an overkill, but I feel a bit of comfort to currently be prepared for such).  I also could move more value of BTC or dollars onto exchanges if either the price goes beyond reasonable expectations or if I decide to tweak my strategy a bit based on changes in my overall viewpoint(s).  

I think that the punchline is that currently, I have somewhere between 15% to 20% of total value on exchanges, as compared with my previous approximately 50% status.



My own trading style necessitates that I don't hold anything on an exchange, (because I have lost funds from exchange hacks which is not nice really and I decided not to risk it happening again).

I have had some losses too, yet I am considering that my strategy has allowed me to gain more than I lost, and maybe even playing some kind of role in both understanding and facilitating the existing bitcoin trading/market system.

I believe that active and interactive engagement does allow for a kind of learning that cannot come from a less engaging style - such as keeping all value in cold storage.

I don't have any beef with folks who choose to take the 100% cold storage approach because in the end that approach may result in very decent results for that person - including whatever timeline s/he may have for liquidating.



Also is selling any real amount of your stash a tax event? For me it is. This all makes trading in and out quite a difficult business potentially.

Yep.  Problematic area, and changing laws and differing between jurisdictions.

Because of these factors I only trade very infrequently, ie last time I bought in any decent amount bitcoin was about $300. I have cashed out some at a few different levels but because like I say tax makes me hesitate to do more when I otherwise might have.  But I might only trade once, twice or less in a year.

Yep.... Some of the laws are simply draconian... and accounting burdens and off putting because of their lack of clarity and varying interpretations that seem to differ from time to time.

However I do a lot more trading in and out using other crypto, mainly Dash with smaller amounts, mainly for fun, but also because I can profit pretty well generally. I chose Dash because I really like it but any other pair with decent liquidity could do it. This is good because most the time I don't need to get carried away thinking about fiat  and tax. I don't use leverage and so if price goes the wrong way I can be patient. I like bitcoin and Dash so holding either bags if fine for me.

Also, seems to be a matter of interpretation about whether trading crypto assets is materially different from trading fiat that has not been cashed out.  And, we can do what we believe is less burdensome in terms of accounting, I suppose.

Anyway thought I'd give you the chance to elaborate a bit more, which I'd be interested in hearing. Cheers

Of course, each of us have our experiences, and frequently, I am learning and tweaking my approach when I interact with posters and sometimes reconsider my approach in light of the varying approaches and viewpoints of others.  Hopefully, I have provided you some personal details that you consider helpful to your own thinking on the topic.

hey cheers for reply, yes feels weird to agree on something  Tongue

In my case, though I stated I try not to keep funds on exchanges, lately I am finding more funds than I'm normally comfortable with are ending up stuck on exchange . In large part because I haven't sent ID to any of them (I use a few) and so stuck with small daily withdrawl limits. Perhaps I need to tweak my own strategy slightly and start trusting xchange a little more. Something for me to ponder
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December 28, 2017, 11:57:04 PM

Is the price starting to stabilize? It's been bouncing between $13500 and $14500 all day.
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December 28, 2017, 11:57:22 PM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Someone said one brand of hardware wallet only had enough memory to let you store a few altcoins on it in addition to your bitcoins. I can't remember what brand it was and have never tried them myself.

The ledger nano s only lets you keep three or so wallet 'apps' at a time. But deleting a wallet app does not 'remove' the associated coins: as soon as you load the wallet app again with your pin, you can access your 'stored' coins again. It's apparently a security measure to minimize the amount of hackable storage. The ledger blue has more storage.

I also like the fact that hardware wallets are compatible with Electrum and maybe other wallet apps or browser apps, too. So you don't have you use the packaged wallets if you don't want to.
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December 29, 2017, 12:00:12 AM

Yeah, Trezor. My only question there is what happens if they get hacked, and is there a way to run your own trezor server on your own system (so you don't every have to depend on the Trezor company to be in business)?

No need to worry. If the TREZOR company goes bust, just enter your seed in a Ledger. They are compatible. It's a standard. There will always be a way to get to your coins from your seed. Plus, the servers of these companies don't know (and can't know, by design) your seed or your private keys.

Which HW wallets do you like more? I have a ledger and have not used a Trezor.

I own both TREZOR and Ledger h/w wallets. Well, TREZOR was my first, and hence has seen much heavier use than the Ledger. I like both. The good thing about the Ledger is that it supports many more coins than the TREZOR, and the Ledger team is usually quicker to release support for forks, updates, etc. Also, the Ledger contains a "secure element" that is supposed to improve security. I think both are more or less equivalent for most users, and they are currently the best you can get, but I tend to like the TREZOR slightly more, probably for sentimental/subjective rather than technical reasons...

jojo69 has posted a comparison video. Watch it for a more hands-on comparison.
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December 29, 2017, 12:01:56 AM

Sorry for posting way off topic this morning, I was in panic mode. I know you guys are always on here, and I appreciate your help. Looks like I actually got my coins back now. (mind blown) I got on this morning to send a transaction, I was watching it on the blockchain, 2 hours later. A separate transaction appeared sending my remaining coins to unknown address. Which turns out, is one of my own hidden addresses. I know change can be sent back to hidden addresses, my understanding is it's always in the same Transaction ID though. This transaction shows on the blockchain with it's own ID but doesn't show in my wallet.

That's the first time I've ever seen a backdoor virus detected on this pc and I definitely did not turn defender off myself. Maybe that's just a coincidence and it was leading to draw the wrong conclusions. I dunno. I did a format and reinstall of windows 3 days ago because windows was reporting corrupt system files when trying to update. I've only installed programs I consider trustworthy since, so I'm really surprised to find a backdoor got on here. Anyway, think I'm going to take a nap when my blood pressure returns to normal.

Congrats man! That was close!

Losing 0.1 BTC is nothing compared to losing $45k...
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December 29, 2017, 12:03:41 AM

The good thing about the Ledger is that it supports many more coins than the TREZOR,

What's the maximum number of altcoin wallets it can hold at any one time in addition to a bitcoin wallet?
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December 29, 2017, 12:05:52 AM

Never got into the whole HW wallet thing. Are they worth it?

Is there any one big significant drawback?

Dont know if worth but,

offline PC with offline Printer and original Wallet works fine for years now.

...if you are not too lazy to type sometimes a few things Smiley

I run Armory with watch only accounts. I have a virgin laptop that has never touched the internet for signing transactions offline. I got a ledger and and a Nano Blue earlier this year. I will keep the paper wallets as they are , but I do like the ledger products.


Uggg, don't get me started on Armory.  It's great and very very secure but also very clunky.   I had 2.5 BTC stuck in my Armory wallet for the last 3years. Feb 16th 2014, I put 2.5btc in Armory as a test and set a AES256 encryption password. Welp.. had a lot going on at the time and didn't write the damn password down.  3 years later I finally guessed the password. Haha  yep, 50k dollars is hell of a motivator.    Well as you imagine this a very old version of armory and I didn't have an updated version or BitcoinD running and no way to sync to a database.  I finally exported my wallet keys about 100 of them and had to input each private key to see which one held the btc.
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December 29, 2017, 12:06:50 AM
Last edit: December 29, 2017, 12:17:07 AM by HairyMaclairy

Very glad to hear you didn’t lose them after all.  What an enormous relief.

I have used both Trezor and Ledger.  IMHO Trezor is better for Bitcoin only as the device is nicer to use.  Ledger feels a bit cheap with sharp little buttons.  

If you want to store a wide range of coins, then Ledger is better as has much wider support including ERC20 tokens.  

Edit:  the bottom is slowly falling out of BT2 tokens as people realize they are worthless.
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