Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?

P.S. I totally called it in this post:

I've been feeling that the price jump has been built on FOMO speculation for a while now. I think that the real, solid base is around $6k (roughly following the longer-term linear trend), but I expect speculators to stabilize it if it reaches $10k, at the very least, and then those prices might or might not stabilize.

So IMO $6k and below is "solid", $6k-$10k is semi-solid, and everything above $10k is a house of cards. No idea what'll actually happen in the next few days, though; it's pure speculative madness. In the next hour, I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $10k or an increase to $16k.

Hahahahahaha

I usually harp on newbies for attempting to prematurely expect BTC "stability." 

Alright... I will hold back a tiny little bit on the harping part. because I don't want to end up in bitcointalk prison... however, I will assert (can't help myself) that one of the least likely scenarios that BTC going to enter into any time soon is a kind of semblance of meaningful "stability."

We have war going on out there, and even with an ICO and alt coin dump that was disproportionately more negative for non-bitcoin cryptos as compared with bitcoin, the alt crypto and ICO craze does not seem to be dying down any time soon.. which continues to contribute to craziness in the space, including bitcoin.

The most likely status that we are going to have in the near future remains:


ONGOING


CHAOS!!!!!!

(threw in a bit of color and drama, just for Bob)....


TLDR: Approximately, there is:
 1)  less than .026519% likelihood for stability any time in the next six months or longer   
2) 99.235411% chance for chaos and
3) .73807%  chance for other.       

With my total and completely scientific presentation of the subject, including specifics in my percentage presentations, even "other" has gotten "stability" beat by more than .71%.   Go figure.   hahahaha

[1634541025]

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[1634541025]

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[Last of the V8s]

@BCAppelbaum
Sad photo of Wall Street traders reacting as stock market plunges.

[kurious]

Trains and rockets? 

b..b...but I have prepared myself so well for buys all the way down, so I could feel smug!

I ain't cancelling them yet, but what a difference a green candle can make.

I hope DOOM is over...   But let's see. 

[jbreher]

Maybe i’m Kinda curious off Some in here are actually selling / panicselling while writing things about Going to the moon and stuff ??

I did my selling in Dec.

cheers!

[rafanadal]

Celebrating too early again?

[Biodom]

Maybe i’m Kinda curious off Some in here are actually selling / panicselling while writing things about Going to the moon and stuff ??

I did my selling in Dec.

cheers!

don't be so smug, you might regret it in due course.



EDIT: marcus_of_augustus....wow, thanks.

[Last of the V8s]

Celebrating too early again?

speaking again?

[JayJuanGee]

Celebrating too early again?

I don't see any meaningful signs of celebrating,... seems to be more of a relief, and decent chances that the bottom is in...

I think that many of us realize that prices have to get a decent distance above the bottom (which so far is $5920) before we can feel further assurances that the bottom is in for this overall correction....

Currently, I am going to begin to feel a decent level of comfort once the price goes above $10k, again (in the event that it does in the near future)

[jojo69]

GDAX interface right on the edge of shitting the bed

[bitserve]

A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?

P.S. I totally called it in this post:

I've been feeling that the price jump has been built on FOMO speculation for a while now. I think that the real, solid base is around $6k (roughly following the longer-term linear trend), but I expect speculators to stabilize it if it reaches $10k, at the very least, and then those prices might or might not stabilize.

So IMO $6k and below is "solid", $6k-$10k is semi-solid, and everything above $10k is a house of cards. No idea what'll actually happen in the next few days, though; it's pure speculative madness. In the next hour, I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $10k or an increase to $16k.

My theory is that when people need money, for whatever reason, they cash out from whatever they have. Thats why I think the people that believes PM's would be doing great in a "mad max scenario" are completely wrong. PM's would just be another useless shit to trade in vast quantities in exchange of really usefull/valuable stuff like food, firearms, tools, etc....

There's no such thing as uncorrelated assets. There are just valuable assets (depending on the situation) and useless shit to trade for the former.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Trains and rockets? 

b..b...but I have prepared myself so well for buys all the way down, so I could feel smug!

I ain't cancelling them yet, but what a difference a green candle can make.

I hope DOOM is over...   But let's see. 

I'm already buying back a few of the coins that I dumped this morning at the exact absolute bottom, at a loss of more than 1K each, ouch!
At least now I have some dry powder in case they get cheaper again.

P.S. Good fake violating neatly the 61,8% retracement + the 200 SMA this morning. Nothing better to inspire terror.

[gembitz]

Trains and rockets? 

b..b...but I have prepared myself so well for buys all the way down, so I could feel smug!

I ain't cancelling them yet, but what a difference a green candle can make.

I hope DOOM is over...   But let's see. 

$10,000 CLOSE  //^lel

[JayJuanGee]

Trains and rockets?  

b..b...but I have prepared myself so well for buys all the way down, so I could feel smug!

I ain't cancelling them yet, but what a difference a green candle can make.

I hope DOOM is over...   But let's see.  

I'm already buying back a few of the coins that I dumped this morning at the exact absolute bottom, at a loss of more than 1K each, ouch!
At least now I have some dry powder in case they get cheaper again.

P.S. Good fake violating neatly the 61,8% retracement + the 200 SMA this morning. Nothing better to inspire terror.

Honey Badger no like rules.    

Thanks for taking one for the team.  

[marcus_of_augustus]

another short-covering, anemic, dead-cat bounce ... dump it.

the bear is here, prepare.

[User705]

Still feels like just traders on the exchanges.  And they will follow the trend blindly.  To put in a real bottom there needs to be some consolidation and sideways movement.  Once equilibrium is reached and both buyers and seller feel bitcoin is properly valued then it can continue its deflationary cycle by moving upward.  But days of being up 30% just don’t feel like a convincing long term bottom.

[PaivanTreidi]

SMA 200 is roughly 8000. Would be weird if we are below it for long. Bitcoin is very weird though.

[SidETH]

Educate me if you want: what is considered 'in the green' and 'being safe'?

Multiple days of continuous growth?
Reaching $8500?
High volumes?

Because last Saturday I was getting excited, only to get real again this morning.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Educate me if you want: what is considered 'in the green' and 'being safe'?

For me to stop falling would be good enough.

[Last of the V8s]

+1 WO merit ElonMusk

synchronized booster landing

[SidETH]

Educate me if you want: what is considered 'in the green' and 'being safe'?

For me to stop falling would be good enough.

Personally I would feel most comfortable at multiple weeks of stability, and then to start rising again.
This massive down followed by a potential massive up make me feel uncomfortable.