Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I think MasterLuc has lost his edge recently, and I don't believe we'll languish for a year at 10K.

I think we are still within various of his suggested scenarios. This isn’t hard science but educated guessing.

Isn't hard science just very educated guessing? (Spoilers)

are you kidding?
maybe if we are talking about economic "science" and economists.

[1679768333]

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[1679768333]

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[Wekkel]

I think MasterLuc has lost his edge recently, and I don't believe we'll languish for a year at 10K.

I think we are still within various of his suggested scenarios. This isn’t hard science but educated guessing.

Isn't hard science just very educated guessing? (Spoilers)

If I look out my window right now, I see Moon.

Hard science?  

[Phil_S]

I think MasterLuc has lost his edge recently, and I don't believe we'll languish for a year at 10K.

Yeah, ending the year around 30K seems more likely.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I think MasterLuc has lost his edge recently, and I don't believe we'll languish for a year at 10K.

I think we are still within various of his suggested scenarios. This isn’t hard science but educated guessing.

Isn't hard science just very educated guessing? (Spoilers)

are you kidding?
maybe if we are talking about economic "science" and economists.

Economics is a joke that doesn't really belong in academia.

Hard science is fundamentally "just" statistical analysis, which ultimately is "very" educated guessing. There is no such thing as A "always implies" B when it comes to science, there's just extremely high probabilities that can be considered as "factual" for all practical purposes and intents without ever being provable to be such in absolute terms.

I think MasterLuc has lost his edge recently, and I don't believe we'll languish for a year at 10K.

I think we are still within various of his suggested scenarios. This isn’t hard science but educated guessing.

Isn't hard science just very educated guessing? (Spoilers)

If I look out my window right now, I see Moon.

Hard science?  

If you kept repeating your 'experiment' and noted time and position, sure.

[Lopumbo]

is bitfinex insolvent?

[HairyMaclairy]

I’m pretty happy with holding around mid 7s at the moment.

[jbreher]

Looks like the whole tx spam job by ... jbreher, ... is officially a failed exercise in self-falattio

If you have any evidence whatsoever that I have been in any way associated with a 'tx spam job', then cough it up.

Fucking lying asshole.

About a 9 on the tension scale there, Rube.

Yeah. Admittedly. I just tire of the incessant baseless, ignorant, and malicious slander.

[HairyMaclairy]

Tether is a separate legal entity to BFX.  Unlikely to pull down BFX (unless it triggers a run and BFX has been fractional reserve banking).

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like the whole tx spam job by ... jbreher, ... is officially a failed exercise in self-falattio

If you have any evidence whatsoever that I have been in any way associated with a 'tx spam job', then cough it up.

Fucking lying asshole.

About a 9 on the tension scale there, Rube.

Yeah. Admittedly. I just tire of the incessant baseless, ignorant, and malicious slander.

Don’t come in here as a big blocker and play victim.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Tether is a separate legal entity to BFX.  Unlikely to pull down BFX (unless it triggers a run and BFX has been fractional reserve banking).

How does Tether even work? Suppose BFX/Tether went insolvent, would Tether remain? Or would people with any Tether just be screwed (ignoring the actual BTC price as a result of such an event)?

[HairyMaclairy]

Tether is a separate legal entity to BFX.  Unlikely to pull down BFX (unless it triggers a run and BFX has been fractional reserve banking).

How does Tether even work? Suppose BFX/Tether went insolvent, would Tether remain? Or would people with any Tether just be screwed (ignoring the actual BTC price as a result of such an event)?

Tether is a completely centralized token so the bankruptcy administrator could freeze all Tether (or take it back to a central wallet).

[User705]

Problem is if/when tether busts all exchanges can only pull a BTC-e.  They have to close and hit the crypto holders for whatever value tether now evaporated.

[josephpogi]

Volume to support this rally is anemic. It looks like we'll be heading down again. I suspect we'll be testing $6,000 again soon.

That's exactly why I reacted so strongly to egyptian magician's "wisdom." "Anemic volume."  What's next? Is he going to pee on us and tell us it's raining?

I noticed he magically avoided mentioning the name of his old account with all of the wise posts...

This is true ? Soon $6000? . I already sell my appc because appc is like a btc. Once btc goes down appc will go down also huhu.

[HairyMaclairy]

Problem is if/when tether busts all exchanges can only pull a BTC-e.  They have to close and hit the crypto holders for whatever value tether now evaporated.

They might choose to honour the value of Tether.  I would carefully watch for exchanges shutting down Tether deposits and withdrawals. That would be a bad sign.

[dieselmeister]

is bitfinex insolvent?

Nope. I think not. It is possible, that a company can have depts. And this depts has to be in some kind of statement of financial position.
But honestly i don't know the financial law in the us. Only in germany a little bit.

[jojo69]

the next leg down is going to crush our souls

[bitserve]

Tether is a separate legal entity to BFX.  Unlikely to pull down BFX (unless it triggers a run and BFX has been fractional reserve banking).

How does Tether even work? Suppose BFX/Tether went insolvent, would Tether remain? Or would people with any Tether just be screwed (ignoring the actual BTC price as a result of such an event)?

If Tether were to be insolvent (not fully backed by real USD), the moment it would be confirmed everybody would go dump their USDT for USD or other cryptos and very soon there would be noone buying it as the Tether bots would stop trying to maintain the peg so its value would crash to zero. Well, probably not really zero because:

- It's real fundamental value would depend on the perception of what percentage of Tether is backed by USD (ie: 20%, 60%, etc)
- Going under the price equating the real reserves, Teter (the company) could just try rebuy them all becoming solvent again (after destruction of the "overbooked" USDT).

After all the warnings about Tether, I wonder how many of it is still in the hands of people other than Teter itself. I would supposse many people have already dump it and noone would have a too big stake on it.

Yet the price of Tether haven't really crashed. BUT... what has crashed is all the crypto market which I think could be related. What if it was Tether/Bitfinex that had USDT somewhat backed.... NOT by USD but by a mix of USD, BTC and many other crypto?

If that were the case they would have been forced to liquidate those crypto assets to maintain the USDT peg stable. And, having to back more than 2 billion dollars overnight requires a lot of dumping, which causes panic and many other people dump too. Also as the price of the crypto assets go lower, more (coin units) dumping is required to extract the same value.... and there you have your doom circle.

Is that what has happened? Maybe, or at least it has been one in many factors behind the "crash".

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Tether is a separate legal entity to BFX.  Unlikely to pull down BFX (unless it triggers a run and BFX has been fractional reserve banking).

How does Tether even work? Suppose BFX/Tether went insolvent, would Tether remain? Or would people with any Tether just be screwed (ignoring the actual BTC price as a result of such an event)?

Tether is a completely centralized token so the bankruptcy administrator could freeze all Tether (or take it back to a central wallet).

Thanks for clarifying. Had a hunch that would be the case, guess I was right for staying out of Tether as a hedging tool.

[HairyMaclairy]

the next leg down is going to crush our souls

Now that’s the capitulation talk we want !

[jojo69]

the next leg down is going to crush our souls

Now that’s the capitulation talk we want !

the false hope is one of the oldest tricks in the torturers tool kit