Bitcoin Forum
September 27, 2020, 02:22:54 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.20.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

Pages: « 1 ... 19427 19428 19429 19430 19431 19432 19433 19434 19435 19436 19437 19438 19439 19440 19441 19442 19443 19444 19445 19446 19447 19448 19449 19450 19451 19452 19453 19454 19455 19456 19457 19458 19459 19460 19461 19462 19463 19464 19465 19466 19467 19468 19469 19470 19471 19472 19473 19474 19475 19476 [19477] 19478 19479 19480 19481 19482 19483 19484 19485 19486 19487 19488 19489 19490 19491 19492 19493 19494 19495 19496 19497 19498 19499 19500 19501 19502 19503 19504 19505 19506 19507 19508 19509 19510 19511 19512 19513 19514 19515 19516 19517 19518 19519 19520 19521 19522 19523 19524 19525 19526 19527 ... 27303 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22608734 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
ivomm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1049
Merit: 751


All good things to those who wait


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 01:49:08 PM

1601216574
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1601216574

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1601216574
Reply with quote  #2

1601216574
Report to moderator
1601216574
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1601216574

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1601216574
Reply with quote  #2

1601216574
Report to moderator
1601216574
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1601216574

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1601216574
Reply with quote  #2

1601216574
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1601216574
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1601216574

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1601216574
Reply with quote  #2

1601216574
Report to moderator
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190
Merit: 1019



View Profile
February 08, 2018, 01:51:18 PM

Who the fuck partially fills a limit order for 0.1 BTC and then goes away again?


This has happened to me quite frequently.  You just  happen to have your order at the reversing point.  I think that it is good sign.

Sometimes the remaining portion fo the order does end up getting filled, but frequently when an order gets partially filled, I get a kind of feeling of how much of a "genius" I am in terms of my order placement... sometimes, I cancel the remaining and sometimes I will just leave it and see if it later gets filled.  If I leave it, then frequently, I will set a partial contrary order, just to cover myself on both and it becomes more fun, because I feel that I get an additional opportunity to make some extra money by setting another partial order on the other end and then just wait to see which one fills first.  That part is like a game, and fun and generally profitable, no matter what.

It happened to me too, and when it happens I feel like a genius too! I never set a partial contrary order though. Gotta try that, it must be fun playing wait and see which one fills first. Nice bit, JJG!
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190
Merit: 1019



View Profile
February 08, 2018, 01:56:26 PM

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.
That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190
Merit: 1019



View Profile
February 08, 2018, 01:58:39 PM

Found the exact reference I mention in my previous post. Here it is.


(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?


This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.
Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.
BTCMILLIONAIRE
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 799



View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:07:55 PM

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.
That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.
That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 4167


Be a bank


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:08:58 PM


@cryptocolic
Those drapes are ridiculous.
Wekkel
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2604
Merit: 1272


yes


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:13:06 PM

JOHn having a pre-$1M party with the boys?
realr0ach
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924
Merit: 311


#TheGoyimKnow


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:16:52 PM

Nice scam, guys.  No bid support on any exchange and then you click on Bitfinex and..."The Bitfinex Spoofer", the single entity that has controlled the bitcoin price since $200 by fraud, stealing all customer deposts and claiming they were hacked, and now printing infinite Tethers just like MtGox before it collapsed has these fraud walls - walls backed by nothing because they're Tethers:



Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 4167


Be a bank


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:27:15 PM

JOHn having a pre-$1M party with the boys?
sorry not sure of photo exact context. https://twitter.com/coinsiglieri/status/961557119437852672
some wag posted it in conjuction with https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/961536186278871042
My team has created a White Paper production service. If you are planning an ICO and don't have the time or talent to produce the White Paper, then we can help. We can produce any part, or even the entire paper. Contact us at
conspirosphere.tk
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064


Bitcoin is antisemitic


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:33:45 PM
Merited by Karartma1 (5)

Nice scam, guys.  

This finex thing is ridiculous.


https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD
Karartma1
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1974
Merit: 1168


Be Revolutionary Or Die Trying


View Profile WWW
February 08, 2018, 02:35:50 PM

I am holding my coins but I am not hodling onto this thread. I feel guilty but I can't keep up with its speed.
I found out that the merit system is actually good to scrool the pages and read only the "must read" posts.

Have fun
Rsiyz
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 137
Merit: 5


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:46:12 PM

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2346992.msg23932789#msg23932789
this is still interesting. worth..  Wink

soullyG
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 806
Merit: 553


Decentralize everything


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:51:39 PM
Merited by kurious (1), El duderino_ (1)

...racist drivel...

Bugger off roach, no-one wants you or your bullshit here.
realr0ach
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924
Merit: 311


#TheGoyimKnow


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:53:31 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 03:06:49 PM by realr0ach

Who could have possibly guessed John McAfee was a scammer?  Or better yet, if you assume 9/11 was also bogus and was just Operation Northwoods v2.0 with a remote control plane run into the building conducted by dual citizen neocon Jews to try and get their 7 wars in 5 years (all enemies or territory that Israel wants to expand into of course) as cited by Gen. Wesley Clark, then think of how many others in the public light are also frauds and scammers complicit by going along with it when they obviously know better?  Neil Degrasse Tyson, Michio Kaku, Stephen Hawking, the list goes on.  Cowards, scammers, murderers, and thieves.

Bugger off roach, no-one wants you or your bullshit here.

Nobody wants your paroting of Jew media propaganda and lies here.
conspirosphere.tk
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064


Bitcoin is antisemitic


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:56:23 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 03:11:46 PM by conspirosphere.tk

Bugger off roach, no-one wants you or your bullshit here.

Fuck off to police some other place.

sirazimuth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2044
Merit: 1647


born once atheist


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:57:06 PM

“I’ll take “roach rant” for $100 please,Alex..”

“The answer is...
The Jewish conspiracy...
Silver is god...
Bitfinex is a scam.”

(Buzzes in)
“What three things does every roach rant repeat ad finitum!?”

DING DING!
soullyG
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 806
Merit: 553


Decentralize everything


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:58:10 PM

Bugger off roach, no-one wants you or your bullshit here.

Fuck off to police some other place.

I'll stay here thanks, voicing my discontent with his rubbish.
Rsiyz
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 137
Merit: 5


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:58:25 PM

"hate to jews are bad"

hate to russians, east europeans are ok here.... nobody delete , no admin here

ROACH have true as always .
BTCMILLIONAIRE
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 799



View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:58:51 PM

“I’ll take “roach rant” for $100 please,Alex..”

“The answer is...
The Jewish conspiracy...
Silver is god...
Bitfinex is a scam.”

(Buzzes in)
“What three things does every roach rant repeat ad finitum!?”

DING DING!

At least one of those has some meat to it I guess. Too bad he's not providing anything new to the table.
Rsiyz
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 137
Merit: 5


View Profile
February 08, 2018, 02:59:51 PM

Bugger off roach, no-one wants you or your bullshit here.

Fuck off to police some other place.

I'll stay here thanks, voicing my discontent with his rubbish.
[/quote

RUSSIA IS BOSS YOU FUCKING AMERICAN ASSHOLE

 you hate russians fucking raciiiiist  
Pages: « 1 ... 19427 19428 19429 19430 19431 19432 19433 19434 19435 19436 19437 19438 19439 19440 19441 19442 19443 19444 19445 19446 19447 19448 19449 19450 19451 19452 19453 19454 19455 19456 19457 19458 19459 19460 19461 19462 19463 19464 19465 19466 19467 19468 19469 19470 19471 19472 19473 19474 19475 19476 [19477] 19478 19479 19480 19481 19482 19483 19484 19485 19486 19487 19488 19489 19490 19491 19492 19493 19494 19495 19496 19497 19498 19499 19500 19501 19502 19503 19504 19505 19506 19507 19508 19509 19510 19511 19512 19513 19514 19515 19516 19517 19518 19519 19520 19521 19522 19523 19524 19525 19526 19527 ... 27303 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!