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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22694258 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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February 08, 2018, 03:00:25 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 04:32:28 PM by Last of the V8s

@giancarloCFTC
11m11 minutes ago

Coin fans - Thx 4 ur enormous response 2 my recent US Senate remarks.  Lol. As you invest remember: caution, balance & DYOR.
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February 08, 2018, 03:24:49 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 03:36:06 PM by jojo69

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbreher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?
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February 08, 2018, 03:26:22 PM

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?
No idea what exactly the chain thingy does. But just take a pen and a piece of paper and crunch some numbers. That way you'll get a proper feel for what you'll want to try to do much quicker than by reading a verbal explanation.
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February 08, 2018, 03:30:12 PM

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?
You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".
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February 08, 2018, 03:31:50 PM
Merited by conspirosphere.tk (1)

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

The secret to trading is just doing the exact opposite of whatever the paid shills are spamming.  Like the r0ach report 15 days ago detailing paid govt shills telling people to dump metals and buy DOW + cryptocurrency and then both of them collapsing right afterwards:

http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-36-paid-govt-shills-spotted-telling-people-to-dump-metals-and-buy-dow-cryptocurrency

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February 08, 2018, 03:36:07 PM
Merited by conspirosphere.tk (1)

Here, some graph to support my earlier post (sorry I'll talk in €).

So this is how uncertain we are (and yup, that's some sort of symetry we have here since the bullrun).
My prediction is, if we break the 7k€ resistance, we will go pretty much straight to the next ~9k€ resistance zone, maybe in the top of it, or maybe break it and go beyond.
We may stay in this resistance for some time.
If we bounce, from the 7k€ resistance, we may go back go 5k€ and bounce again (unlikely, given the volume we had sub 5k€).

Here you go

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February 08, 2018, 03:47:55 PM

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

The secret to trading is just doing the exact opposite of whatever the paid shills are spamming.  Like the r0ach report 15 days ago detailing paid govt shills telling people to dump metals and buy DOW + cryptocurrency and then both of them collapsing right afterwards:

http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-36-paid-govt-shills-spotted-telling-people-to-dump-metals-and-buy-dow-cryptocurrency

If you hadn't noticed metals dumped too you idiot. Your credibility just keeps hitting ATLs.
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February 08, 2018, 03:55:38 PM

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

The secret to trading is just doing the exact opposite of whatever the paid shills are spamming.  Like the r0ach report 15 days ago detailing paid govt shills telling people to dump metals and buy DOW + cryptocurrency and then both of them collapsing right afterwards:

http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-36-paid-govt-shills-spotted-telling-people-to-dump-metals-and-buy-dow-cryptocurrency

If you hadn't noticed metals dumped too you idiot. Your credibility just keeps hitting ATLs.
You don't get it. You're supposed to do the exact opposite of what the paid shills are spamming. So if you listened to him, you would've sold metals and made a profit.
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February 08, 2018, 03:59:11 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 04:15:47 PM by realr0ach
Merited by conspirosphere.tk (1)

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

The secret to trading is just doing the exact opposite of whatever the paid shills are spamming.  Like the r0ach report 15 days ago detailing paid govt shills telling people to dump metals and buy DOW + cryptocurrency and then both of them collapsing right afterwards:

http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-36-paid-govt-shills-spotted-telling-people-to-dump-metals-and-buy-dow-cryptocurrency

If you hadn't noticed metals dumped too you idiot. Your credibility just keeps hitting ATLs.

Metals didn't "dump".  Do you think r0ach sold a single ounce because the DOW crashed? LOL.  

The ESF naked shorted their casino parlor that nobody actually uses with synthetic contracts to try and get people to make believe they aren't a safe haven asset, just like what they did in 2008.  They could get away with it in 2008 because the crash caused some deflation to occur, thus blowing the doors off $140 a barrel oil all the way to $40 (and oil is the main production cost of metals).  Now they can't get away with it because metals are too close to cost of production from declining ore concentration, and they can't let oil deflate anymore either or it will instantly blow up the entire oil industry.  

Shale oil will already implode, which in itself could obliterate the financial system and cut US output to less than 1/2 of what it is now, but that's another story.  The unprofitable shale oil boondoggle is just the US govt printing money out of thin air to subsidize that market and temporarily lower gas prices until they can get all their false flags in place to blame the economic collapse on and put you in a new slavery system.  If gas was $8 a gallon, the system would have already blown up, so it allowed them to unsustainably kick the can down the road a couple years.
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February 08, 2018, 04:04:59 PM

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?
You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".

OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting at reversals.

If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you only have one "win"
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February 08, 2018, 04:10:39 PM
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February 08, 2018, 04:14:33 PM

The way things are going right now, Bitcoin still doesn't have a strong enough momentum to break above $10k. We'll see in a week or 2 though. It may break aobe $10k or break down $6 below.
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February 08, 2018, 04:16:53 PM

The way things are going right now, Bitcoin still doesn't have a strong enough momentum to break above $10k. We'll see in a week or 2 though. It may break aobe $10k or break down $6 below.
so the price may go up or down    ok I got it   thanks for that
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February 08, 2018, 04:21:56 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?
You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".

OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting at reversals.

If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you only have one "win"
You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.
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February 08, 2018, 04:27:48 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK !!!

BITCOIN??   Just ———-> hodl that shit  keep innovating/ adapting/ learning/buying/ not panicing/decentralize /be enjoyed by and with iT/don’t questing it too much / don’t get triggerd @bearmarket/ do not fall in love with alts... and So on .........

And get quick @24777 Just for new future list games getting bored on This one Wink
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February 08, 2018, 04:35:11 PM


Huh

I do indeed work in standards as my day gig. However, ones of a very different nature. Without the standards I work on, none of this shit would even start working.

I thought you were too crypto rich to have a day job.


The picnic bear works because he "like it..".

hahahahahhaha


 Roll Eyes

He works for the enemy, the USG.

In his spare time he volunteers for their asset, Ver, and the corresponding chicom asset, Wu.

Your assertion that I work for USG is simultaneously laughable on its face, and truly deserving of ridicule. It is quite apparent you are speaking of things of which you have zero knowledge, despite the fact that the open record in this very venue provides all required to see how truly laughable the assertion be.

What asset is the USG's? You mean the Federal Reserve Note? No. No volunteering on its behalf.

Oh you mean Ver is the USG's asset? First, I find the assertion that Ver be a USG asset ludicrous. You do realize he has at times been denied entry visa, right? Do you assert that as part of his 'plausible cover backstory'? Second, while our visions of the best means to free humanity from fiat slavery seem largely aligned, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Ver'.

And I suppose you mean that Wu is a chicom asset? I really have little direct evidence to say yea or nay here. Never met the man. Nonetheless, I might point out that Bitcoin Segwit is dominated by Wu in any sense that Bitcoin Cash is dominated by Wu. Further, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Wu'.

You should probably keep your vomitous crapulation to yourself. You are only serving to make yourself appear stupid.

Actually, Jbreher.  I had thought that Last of the V8 had no fucking basis at all for his shot in the dark last grasp at a USG govt assertion, so I totally shrugged off his claim.

However, now that you so vehemently defended various angles for why you are in "no way" affiliated with USG in any kind of way whatsoever, I am becoming more convinced that there has to be some kind of a USG connection there, somehow... someway.  New tentative theory has gotta be that picnic food eating bear is not really in the food stealing business, but instead part of dee gubmint.   Shocked  and we better alert Torque to this new tentative theory, because surely he would be skillful at getting at the bottom of it...  A problem with Torque, though, is that he prefers to come up with his own theories  Cheesy Cheesy..

as a history student I once did research/paper on the early history of institutionalized secret police in 19th century europe. parts of europe were fractioned in many small kingdoms, principalities and they all had developed secret police institutions. they sent out their agents to hunt the people who wanted democracy. to spy on them, to sniff on them, to create files about innocent folks. some/many of the agents became even agent provocateurs trying to infiltrate the networks of the democratic activists. there were so many of those agents that they sometimes outnumbered the real people at certain events. and that was just the start. those institutions have evolved since then. they had a chance to advance their infiltrating techniques and strategies for centuries!

I guess there are almost as many secret police institutions in the world as we have countries. big countries have several agencies anyway. (for example germany alone inhibits more than 30 undercover working agencies!) add to that the incredible number of OTHER government agencies that want to know stuff...  worldwide...
and how many important bitcoin forums are existing? a handful? some agencies monitor, some stir up, some collect, but get used to the fact that this forum is full of them.


edited

It's funny that you mention the possibility of government agencies on this forum. I told a friend of mine the other day I had become quite active on this forum over the past year. And he joked about what if big hedge fund managers are sitting in their big offices just posting and reading stuff on this forum. I never thought about it that way. But there is always a possibility that both of you are right. Since we do not know who people that post here. It could be a government agent, hedge fund manager, terrorist, James Dimon, the fat banker that has been posted quite a lot in this thread or illuminati lol
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February 08, 2018, 04:36:17 PM

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.
That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.
That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.
I'm no real trader, but I do have a small part of my holdings loose in the wild - mostly learning and making the occasional small profit. Got a few lessons already, at reasonable prices.

Thanks for the advice about multiple scales. The algorithmic thingy really tickles me, especially if it can be steered/tweaked while it runs. Can you suggest any good reference?
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February 08, 2018, 04:37:16 PM


You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

Thanks for helping me brainwrap that.

It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything.  Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal.

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.


edit/  I just deleted a recently added sell order that would have prevented me from "getting in" if it goes up from here...
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February 08, 2018, 04:46:50 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL
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February 08, 2018, 04:49:50 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL

If that happens then send me all your merit and future smerit’s  Tongue  Roll Eyes
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