Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[suspiciously square]

Btw the topic of this thread is - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Bite me.

 What do you guys think about fountain pens?  I'm thinking about picking up a Naminki maki-e.




 Aren't they beautiful?  A little pricey but not as much as a lambo.

Does the ink cost more than the pen? The consumables usually cost more than the item you bought.

After a few years of using the pen you might find the ink cost more than a lambo.

[Arriemoller]

You can stab people with it, stick up your jacksy, or even one's urethra, plug holes in aircraft fuselages to prevent depressurisation and use it to deliver children if there's no hot water and towels to hand.
Can a Lambo do any of that?

No. But I did pick up two of these.

https://www.vipertecknives.com/products/guard-father-spike-automatic-otf-icepick

Jam them into my urethra every morning as part of my morning workout, right after I finish my sets of slamming my testicles between two bricks.

You have strange customs in your country.

[explorer]

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

Without investing tons of time, treat it like anything else: copy a pro, and fake it til you make it.  TERA is a pro.  Max gains is not realistic - selling too soon for GOOD gains flat out destroys panic selling on the way down, over the long term.  You might catch a top or a bottom just right here or there, but never enough to beat the average of always good. 

[mymenace]

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?

This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.

Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

Without investing tons of time, treat it like anything else: copy a pro, and fake it til you make it.  TERA is a pro.  Max gains is not realistic - selling too soon for GOOD gains flat out destroys panic selling on the way down, over the long term.  You might catch a top or a bottom just right here or there, but never enough to beat the average of always good. 

best predictor eva

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

[Arriemoller]

Any paper I can read about that? (the red part).
Education doesn't up your IQ more than very marginally. We need genetic engineering for that.
The Chinese are working on that right now.
[/quote]

...how I hated quoting that entire thing. Would also rather remain on-topic.

No paper to support my brain fart. But let's just say that rich people would agree. "You are the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with." - Jim Rohn.

I do believe education can improve your IQ. It's an arbitrary scale anyway and if extended exposure to complex subjects forces you to concentrate more you will also score higher on IQ tests. You can definitely train for that shit.
And the assumption that homeless people are less endowed mentally is about as shallow as judging someone by the color of their skin. And I refuse to believe Logan Paul has above average IQ.


[/quote]

Paul logan I have no opinion about.
You can train for an IQ test, but it has been tested and shown to only increase your performance marginally.
Saying that you get rich just by hanging with rich people, really needs some support other than a quote.

[Arriemoller]

Btw the topic of this thread is - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Bite me.

 What do you guys think about fountain pens?  I'm thinking about picking up a Naminki maki-e.


 

 Aren't they beautiful?  A little pricey but not as much as a lambo.

Love it

A nice fountain pen is on my list, I do have a good looking but rather cheap one at the moment.

[xhomerx10]

Btw the topic of this thread is - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Bite me.

 What do you guys think about fountain pens?  I'm thinking about picking up a Naminki maki-e.




 Aren't they beautiful?  A little pricey but not as much as a lambo.

Does the ink cost more than the pen? The consumables usually cost more than the item you bought.

After a few years of using the pen you might find the ink cost more than a lambo.

 Oh yeah.  If you buy the maki-e Namiki refills and you write more than 2 letters (2 pages double spaced) per week you're looking at a second mortgage for ink.  They will accept a proprietary non-maki-e Namiki cartridge as well (which can double as a catheter if required).  This cost around $2 each and it's the same ink.

 I'm so glad you people are open to any discussion in here.  It's harder to find someone to discuss fountain oens with than was for Bitcoin in 2013!!

Edit: just found out that the pilot con-70 converter might fit the Namiki so I could save on ink buy purchasing bottles.

[xhomerx10]

Btw the topic of this thread is - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Bite me.

 What do you guys think about fountain pens?  I'm thinking about picking up a Naminki maki-e.


 

 Aren't they beautiful?  A little pricey but not as much as a lambo.

Love it

A nice fountain pen is on my list, I do have a good looking but rather cheap one at the moment.

 The most expensive one I have at the moment is a Schneider Glam 'Cogs'... Cost me about $9; nothing fancy but it's good German quality.

[xhomerx10]

Price be falling, yo.

Is it time to start panicking again ?

 Damn!  No fountain pen for me.

[mymenace]

Price be falling, yo.

Is it time to start panicking again ?

 Damn!  No fountain pen for me.

chart lookin different careful, bullish signals everywhere

[Nosk]

Price be falling, yo.

Is it time to start panicking again ?

Naaah. We are just going sideways. Wait at least tomorrow to see a significant change.

[explorer]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

[suspiciously square]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

If you get a pen make sure you buy a few packs of 24 carat gold paperclips to staple your letters together with.

[Nosk]

AAaawh come on bitcoin, you can just lose 300€ in 2h like that after the slaughter of 3 days ago. I need to sleep at night.
Anyway, it seems normal to me (stressful normal but still normal). We'll be having trouble if it falls below that point :/

I'm not ready for a new drop

[explorer]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

If you get a pen make sure you buy a few packs of 24 carat gold paperclips to staple your letters together with.

Too malleable.  I just use titanium ones.

[Typex]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

Or maybe hes just recognizes spending $10K on a pair of lighters or owning lighters worth that much is pretty fucking stupid. I dont care If someone bought BTC in 2010 and are worth 8 figures, respectable people dont go around calling people poor because they dont buy $3000 pens or $5000 lighters.

[Nosk]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

[xhomerx10]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

Or maybe hes just recognizes spending $10K on a pair of lighters or owning lighters worth that much is pretty fucking stupid. I dont care If someone bought BTC in 2010 and are worth 8 figures, respectable people dont go around calling people poor because they dont buy $3000 pens or $5000 lighters.

 Wait... calling people retarded is fine though?

[Typex]

I think anyone who buys a pen worths thousands of dollars is a little bit mentally retarded.

Useful artwork is retarded?  Maybe you're  just poor.  I have 2 cigarette lighters that together are worth well over $10k.  I assure you that I am no where near mentally retarded.  Small scale Lambo's.  That's all.  I don't smoke.  Maybe I need a pen...

Or maybe hes just recognizes spending $10K on a pair of lighters or owning lighters worth that much is pretty fucking stupid. I dont care If someone bought BTC in 2010 and are worth 8 figures, respectable people dont go around calling people poor because they dont buy $3000 pens or $5000 lighters.

 Wait... calling people retarded is fine though?

Nope, its a terrible word to use.

[JayJuanGee]

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbreher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?

I haven't tried it myself, but I thought you were supposed to sell higher than you bought.
If you buy at 30, 25, 20 and 15 on the way down I guess you are supposed to sell the 15 buy when it hits 20 on the way up and the 25 at 30 and so on.

Yep, Arriemoller.  What you are outlining is a good foundation for an incrementalist approach to stacking your bets and hopefully profiting either direction while providing yourself with insurance, and you can tweak it to your own tolerance and sometimes you can skip one (for example selling the 15 at 25) or go in the middle (selling the 15 at 22.5) or some other variation that might be lopsided in one direction because you consider it to more closely to assist you in reaching your various goals, so you do not have to stick to any strict formula in the event that you find some structuring that works better for your ability to eek out greater profits, better insurance, or more conformity with your own personal circumstances (finances, risk tolerance, views of bitcoin, timeline, available spare time, etc).

One thing is that sometimes if you structure your orders too close together then there might not be enough sense of profits (like you are spinning your wheels for nothing - as mentioned earlier by Jojo), or if you set your orders too far apart, then they don't tend to fill and you lose profit opportunities.   

Sometimes, I like to structure my orders in a very uniformed way in order to more easily remember each increment, even though there may be ways of structuring the orders that are more likely to be more profitable, but I give some value to the ease of remembering my orders.  Other times, I add a bit more complexity into my setting up orders for a short period of time because even though I am causing some possible confusion for myself, I consider that the short term more complicated practice is going to allow me to engage in a bit of rebalancing in one direction or another that helps to line up my sense of how allocated I want to be in one direction or another.  For example, I keep a spreadsheet tabulation that shows approximately how much allocated I am in one direction or another, and I recall that in 2016, there were price drops that caused my BTC/dollar allocation to approach 98% bitcoin and 2% dollars, and part of that was due to my newness in trading, and another part towards my tendency to easily become higher allocated in the direction of bitcoin, and another part was that my overall portfolio was not as highly in the profitable area (sometimes even in the negative in terms of profits). 

More recently, even though I continue to gravitate towards being bitcoin bullish and even having beliefs that we have not yet reached the last run-up in this particular bubble (or run up), so therefore, I have continued to maintain a decently high level of allocation that has been skewed in the bitcoin direction, so even when BTC prices approached $20k, my allocation of BTC to dollars still maintained at nearly an 88% BTC to 12% fiat level.  Currently, my tweaking of my plan continues to be based on my own refusal to go anywhere near 100% allocation towards bitcoin (to attempt to always maintain a cushioning of dollars), even if BTC prices were to drop to below $1k, I am still projected to have some dollars... yet as I type, I feel like I bought a lot of BTC on the way down from $20k to $6k, and at one point, I had used up nearly 66% of the previous amount of my fiat; however, when I look at my current allocation, it is still floating at about 92.7% bitcoin and 7.3% dollars.. So, simultaneously there is a certain level of attempted maintenance and another attempt at tweaking when I feel some need to prepare further one way or another.