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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25492545 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
TERA2
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February 09, 2018, 08:31:00 PM
Merited by BlindMayorBitcorn (1)

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.
Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull
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jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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February 09, 2018, 08:34:49 PM

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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February 09, 2018, 08:45:11 PM

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.

Yes sorry. I have now used the google. A butterfly flapping its wings sort of deal.
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February 09, 2018, 08:48:54 PM

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC
Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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February 09, 2018, 09:04:47 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2018, 09:19:18 PM by JayJuanGee

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.
Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull


Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.  

Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them).  A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin...   Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?

You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....

Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.

By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.

Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly.  Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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February 09, 2018, 09:09:55 PM

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC
Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?
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February 09, 2018, 09:14:42 PM

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan


You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4


Are they available at  penisland.com ?   Grin      (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.


I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/
xhomerx10
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Go! BTC Go!


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February 09, 2018, 09:18:23 PM

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan


You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4


Are they available at  penisland.com ?   Grin      (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.


I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

 Ah ha!  Now we get to the heart of the maliciousness.
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February 09, 2018, 09:29:27 PM

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan


You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4


Are they available at  penisland.com ?   Grin      (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.


I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

 Ah ha!  Now we get to the heart of the maliciousness.


The real deal pen selling website is called http://www.penisland.net/
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yes


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February 09, 2018, 09:33:32 PM

Hory shit, interbank lending has plunged.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Look at the 1 yr. What did they see coming in the New Year?

What is the significance of that indicator? Doesn't seem to have much $$$ in it even before the plunge?

As I recall, the collapse in inter-bank lending was one of the hallmarks of the '08 debacle.

That’s why I would have expected an article about it at ZeroHedge (but I am a day or two behind in my RSS feed).
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February 09, 2018, 09:34:38 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2018, 09:46:39 PM by Sitarow
Merited by Globb0 (4), Wekkel (1)

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.
Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

To gauge the bottom I use the miners profitability vs return on new hardware. Additionally miners are hardcore into bitcoin and crypto and they are first to reinvest in bitcoin by buying up asic hardware. If it proves profitable to buy btc vs buying hardware they will.

Simply see the cost return comparison.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit#gid=1194614223

Here is an example that also includes the last two years of network difficulty as an average.

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 9,500.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/bDhEa5r.png

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 15,000.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/J41nWjy.png


Here is the Avalon 821 11TH if the price was at 15,000.00.


https://i.imgur.com/L7MGVjV.png


UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  
bones261
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February 09, 2018, 10:22:19 PM

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC
Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?

When a short gets liquidated (or even when it gets closed voluntarily by the trader), the person who shorts has to buy bitcoins to pay back the margin. So over 10000 BTC should have some kind of immediate effect. Although how long it lasts is another story. At least that is how it would work at Bitfinex. If it happened at Bitmex, that would not be the case because that is really a derivatives type market, from my understanding. If it was CBOE or CME, those are really cash settled and do not involve the trading of real bitcoins, so the effect would be minimal. I am not sure how OKCOIN, Kraken or the other exchanges that offer margin trading work. What exchange did this happen on?
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February 09, 2018, 10:33:17 PM
Merited by Sitarow (1)

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  
Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.
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February 09, 2018, 10:34:20 PM

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC
Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?

When a short gets liquidated (or even when it gets closed voluntarily by the trader), the person who shorts has to buy bitcoins to pay back the margin. So over 10000 BTC should have some kind of immediate effect. Although how long it lasts is another story. At least that is how it would work at Bitfinex. If it happened at Bitmex, that would not be the case because that is really a derivatives type market, from my understanding. If it was CBOE or CME, those are really cash settled and do not involve the trading of real bitcoins, so the effect would be minimal. I am not sure how OKCOIN, Kraken or the other exchanges that offer margin trading work. What exchange did this happen on?


Yes.  It would be nice to engage in some more speculation on this topic, if we had more information and perhaps links.  You could be correct, Bones, that the effect might be different based on the exchange because of how BIG of a difference of the financial impact that could be caused
depending on the policy of the exchange.  I am only weakly familiar with margin trading, since I do not employ such a practice myself, yet my understanding is that all value or money for the position is put up front - so whether you close the position early or you are forced out of the position by market movement, you have already put up whatever money is needed in order to cover those kinds of eventualities, and you would perhaps end up losing that extra money that is put up whether it is for exchange costs or to pay back whoever had made the loan.  Any better description of the overall process or the specifics of this situation would be helpful, here.
Last of the V8s
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February 09, 2018, 10:35:34 PM

https://twitter.com/CryptOrca/status/962020065506770944 and thread following
okex
What exchange did this happen on?
Sitarow
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February 09, 2018, 10:36:51 PM

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  
Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Smiley Love those days!
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February 09, 2018, 10:52:38 PM

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  
Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Smiley Love those days!

Change is inevitable, no?

Probably 95% of the members of this forum did not know what bitcoin was in 2011 -

There are even some members of this forum who got into Bitcoin in 2016 who are considered as OGs by some later arrivals, based on their largely beating the 2017 price run-up...

Actually one stressful circumstance could have been attempting to accumulate in 2017 while the price was going up and trying to figure out a plan for accumulation (and I think that we have seen some of the stresses of those later entrants in this thread), but if you had already largely accumulated your BTC and was mostly maintaining your stash (which does not rule out continued accumulation) in 2017, then currently, you should be sitting in pretty territory.. at least from a financial point of view (if you did not panic sell too much BTC at some too early stage), even if you are still spending a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what it is that you invested into, exactly.  hahahahahaha

By the way, personally, I do not consider myself to be an OG, even though the term is kind of relative, but I might consider someone who entered before 2013 to be an OG of sorts (and you, Sitarow, would likely fit my rough relative timeline categorization of a BTC OG)...
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February 09, 2018, 10:59:09 PM

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.
Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull


Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.  

Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them).  A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin...   Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?

You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....

Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.

By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.

Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly.  Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.
The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.
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February 09, 2018, 11:00:56 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2018, 11:23:50 PM by bones261
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Very interesting read. So the average entry looks like 8000, and the person decided not to close the positions, even though it was all gravy when BTC was in the 6K range. What a stubborn bearwhale. REKT. Glad the person/entity has been vanquished. Only way that I would feel pity for this person/entity is if it is revealed that some kind of technical problem, either on OKEX or the shorter's end, prevented closing the position in a timely manner.

I tried to read the FAQ on how OKEX futures contracts work. It befuddled me. Perhaps I didn't Google well enough.  Huh However, I assume how it works is that the contracts are settled every Friday. So the money/bitcoin is just exchanged between the people who hold the contracts at that time. So the effect on the market is only minimal, like CBOE, CME and Bitmex.

I am like JJG when it comes to margin trading. I have dabbled in Kraken and Poloniex. I think the longest that I ever held a position open was far less than an hour. I find myself getting rather nervous over my satoshis/pennies, and end up just getting out. I definitely would not go to sleep or even move more than 10 yards away from my device with a position open.  Cheesy
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February 09, 2018, 11:01:50 PM

Sorry for the Altcoin talk but: Holy Sh** @ Bitcoin Gold ...

Someone is pumping this really good ;-)
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