Hy guys,
who thinks we will hit +€25k by the end of 2018
Love to see that but it’s a
NO from me
Odds are looking pretty low at the moment, perhaps less than 15%? Or is that too bearish?
We gotta get above a few pretty strong resistance points, especially between $10k and $17k.... Probably if we were able to get above $17k, then we have pretty decent chances of breaking above previous ATH from there... By the way, I am also reading your €25k as a value of about $28k, since we are talking dollars in this thread, not European funny money.
.... so yeah, once we get above the previous ATH of $19,666, then probably we will be able to get into the sub $30k territory before meeting some resistance, perhaps?
The problem is so many people who bought around the end of 2017 will be holding out to sell off as soon as we get back up to the last ATH so they can get their money out. I think when we get near the ATH it wont smash straight through, as much as i would love it too.
To some extent you seem to be misdescribing the dynamics of price and adoption, and the importance of the BTC investors from the earlier bubble.
Of course, there are going to be a lot of the late 2017 investors who want to cash out at various points when getting back into profits, but the momentum of the next wave is surely not driven by them because there will be more peeps and money coming in based on the whole dynamics of how the price goes up in exponential waves.
You can see similar dynamics from the 2014-2016 period. There were a whole hell-of-a-lot of folks saying that they would be cashing out at $1k or even just before $1k or even just after $1k because their understanding of the upwards price pressure was either based on traditional markets or just way too conservative about the upwards price movements of BTC. Also, the price did not just go shooting past $1k because it took a few runs at it, but in the end, the price did go shooting quite past $1k, just like previous exponential price periods.
Yeah, sure, even the bullest of us did not expected the price to go shooting up to $19k so we may have cashed out too much way too early, but after dickering around for most of the early part of 2017.. with the bullshit reservations of the hardforks etc, etc, the end of the year resolved the upwards.. which even if we do not know what facts are going to be presented this time around, we are likely going to shoot quite a distance past $19k - even if there are also likely to be a few false starts too.. and FUD spreading about the doom and gloom of bitcoin.
Actually, if you recall 2017, BTC's market cap "dominance" went down so much that there were a whole hell-of-a lot of alt coin pumpers that were proclaiming the death of bitcoin and even flippenings and other bullshit that could also distract BTC investors out of their coins, distract them from buying coins and cause them to be way too conservative in their BTC accumulation and HODL strategies.
I also think people will be happy to take a risk buying now and holding until we reach the previous ATH, without them wanting to hold on any longer as they fear the retrace.
Well, ultimately it is quite likely that there are going to be a lot of ups and downs, and we don't know if the retraces are going to be 20%, 30% 50% or some larger amount and longer period, but BTC investors can still take strategies that largely attempt to accumulate and don't get too greedy with both over investing or trying to get greedy on catching bottoms, when they might not happen.
And, furthermore, as I have already commented previously, it is likely better to take a 5 year plus approach to investing in bitcoin rather than getting set upon whether new ATHs will be reached this year or even in the next couple of years - even though we could get pleasantly surprised with ATHs in much less than 5 years.
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