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Question: Oct. 23 Closing Price:
<$8,000 - 2 (3%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 0 (0%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 0 (0%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 0 (0%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 0 (0%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 1 (1.5%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 0 (0%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 3 (4.5%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 5 (7.6%)
$12,000-$12,500 - 16 (24.2%)
$12,500-$13,000 - 12 (18.2%)
$13,000-$13,500 - 8 (12.1%)
$13,500-$14,000 - 5 (7.6%)
>$14,000 - 14 (21.2%)
Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 23402633 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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August 16, 2018, 11:10:29 PM

<00:02:27> "J B": ive been working on a bitmex bot... backtest prob a bit overfitted: with 2x margin, $5000 into $5.8 million since Jan 1 2018. https://i.imgur.com/j7B8Pjp.jpg and tradingview graph similar strategy with 1x margin, 4000%  https://i.imgur.com/oPfuQX4.jpg
<00:06:37> "J B": ive turned $200 into $50,000 in a week last Jan, and then frittered half of it away discretionary trading.... now im trying algo's
<00:08:19> "J B": ... its a hybrid algo, using both trend and mean reversion, that trades about 4-6 times a day dependin on settings.... but the huge profits were mostly Jan-March, then its got harder.... not as much dumb money left, and more competition from other quant shops

nb he says it's a backtest. but provides some insight...
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August 16, 2018, 11:10:51 PM

What a boring Market we have this year, ffs

Yeah very boring BUT i’m sure you would found it much more boring if we would be on Another ATH......
most wil be more sleepless right @these times then they Where @december-januari......  Smiley
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August 16, 2018, 11:37:20 PM

 Grin
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August 16, 2018, 11:46:25 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)



Unhinged



Yes... You would serve as a very credible authority to measure what exactly constitutes "unhinged."  
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August 17, 2018, 12:18:25 AM


Yo doodz! Where the bottom party at?
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August 17, 2018, 12:21:23 AM
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August 17, 2018, 12:51:05 AM


Yo doodz! Where the bottom party at?

Hi Fatty. Bob will be along, soon.
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August 17, 2018, 12:56:40 AM


Yo doodz! Where the bottom party at?

Hi Fatty. Bob will be along, soon.

Cool! Bring Pete and Nauseous Mike too!
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August 17, 2018, 01:05:52 AM

Moar pain mandatory




OR,

maybe there is a declining trend in % dropped.
From about 90% (real number was 93-94%)
to about 80% (about 86% to be exact)
to?

94-86-78?

78% from 19783 is about $4350 (not predicting it because it could be 72-80).
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August 17, 2018, 01:32:53 AM
Merited by mymenace (1)

BTC: predicted sideway transient range $6100 to $6800
Expected: 24-26 /08/2018 will reverse => decreased from $6700 / $6800 down



The BTC is expected to start in September. Specifically, from September 4 to June 6, bottom $5300 will be formed and reversed


What is the opinion of people?

Good if you actually believe this nonsense go take out some short positions.

This is the guess that I expected to happen, I'm not sure it will go that way and no one can be sure how the market will go.
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August 17, 2018, 04:17:53 AM
Merited by Torque (1)

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  
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August 17, 2018, 04:35:26 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.
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August 17, 2018, 04:42:20 AM
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Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

i was waiting to rebuy at $150 .. don't hate :\ meh
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August 17, 2018, 06:49:47 AM



How the hell does one measure gold transactions?
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August 17, 2018, 07:19:45 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now. It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.
JayJuanGee
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August 17, 2018, 07:47:03 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin

I was kind of thinking about a post made by infofront a few pages back, in which he indicated that the sentiment that bitcoin prices was going to go further down had increased from a bit less than 50% in April to a bit more than 80% in recent times.    So, yeah, perhaps you could have been considered in the 80%?

Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now.

I know how any of us can get caught up about thinking about our average cost per BTC, and also considering that we could have had a lower number if x, y or z, but in the end, we have to attempt to learn from our mistakes, and don't become too extreme in our betting.

If you recall Elwar had been buying into bitcoin since before 2013, and likely he made a lot of mistakes too.  If you recall somewhere in about mid 2016 (around $650), he had made a really large purchase into bitcoin with a kind of leveraging (using proceeds from a sale), and a lot of folks accused him of being crazy.  I think he was under water for a while, and it was around the time of the bitfinex hack, so people accused him of being stupid.  Anyhow, my point is that a lot of people can invest and even be underwater for a while, yet with the right strategies (especially engaging in long term thinking), end up coming out quite well.. and even with a lot of equity built up in their bitcoin investment due to just HODLing through the ups and downs and in the long run, the average price per BTC does not look as large - meaning your level of profits become more and more considerable.


It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Actually what matters is all of that including the past, but surely both the future and the present are important too.. because each of us still has to employ our individual strategy and even tweak our strategy in the present based on our own financial situation which can differ in terms of our cash flow, cash reserves, risk tolerance, timeline, view of bitcoin, etc..


Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

Probably an important aspect is that you seemed to have learned from the whole way that this bitcoin invention is playing out, and a lot of us recognize that the adoption level of bitcoin remains so small, and even if the whole damned thing fails, there is a kind of ability to weigh the probabilities of success and the probabilities of failure, and figure out that it is quite wise to put some decent sized stake into bitcoin - even if it is less than 10% of your total financial investment assets.  Sometimes you might not want to risk too much but even with a relatively small bet, your bitcoin portion of your investment has decent probabilities of outperforming your other investments in the longer term.


If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.

I think that I agree with what you are saying here, because we should have some stake into bitcoin, even if we believe that the price is going lower.  So,  we do have to have some stake in the game in case the price does not go down, but instead goes up.  Accordingly, we are prepared for the BTC price to go either UP or DOWN.
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August 17, 2018, 07:48:19 AM

Buying is not really the hardest part.

Not selling when it pumps or dumps insanely is.


 
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August 17, 2018, 08:03:44 AM

Buying is not really the hardest part.

Not selling when it pumps or dumps insanely is.


 

Yeah, I remember myself struggling not to sell my extra BTC I got from dumping BCH during the $20k+ December pump.  Grin
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August 17, 2018, 08:34:47 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin

I was kind of thinking about a post made by infofront a few pages back, in which he indicated that the sentiment that bitcoin prices was going to go further down had increased from a bit less than 50% in April to a bit more than 80% in recent times.    So, yeah, perhaps you could have been considered in the 80%?

Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now.

I know how any of us can get caught up about thinking about our average cost per BTC, and also considering that we could have had a lower number if x, y or z, but in the end, we have to attempt to learn from our mistakes, and don't become too extreme in our betting.

If you recall Elwar had been buying into bitcoin since before 2013, and likely he made a lot of mistakes too.  If you recall somewhere in about mid 2016 (around $650), he had made a really large purchase into bitcoin with a kind of leveraging (using proceeds from a sale), and a lot of folks accused him of being crazy.  I think he was under water for a while, and it was around the time of the bitfinex hack, so people accused him of being stupid.  Anyhow, my point is that a lot of people can invest and even be underwater for a while, yet with the right strategies (especially engaging in long term thinking), end up coming out quite well.. and even with a lot of equity built up in their bitcoin investment due to just HODLing through the ups and downs and in the long run, the average price per BTC does not look as large - meaning your level of profits become more and more considerable.


It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Actually what matters is all of that including the past, but surely both the future and the present are important too.. because each of us still has to employ our individual strategy and even tweak our strategy in the present based on our own financial situation which can differ in terms of our cash flow, cash reserves, risk tolerance, timeline, view of bitcoin, etc..


Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

Probably an important aspect is that you seemed to have learned from the whole way that this bitcoin invention is playing out, and a lot of us recognize that the adoption level of bitcoin remains so small, and even if the whole damned thing fails, there is a kind of ability to weigh the probabilities of success and the probabilities of failure, and figure out that it is quite wise to put some decent sized stake into bitcoin - even if it is less than 10% of your total financial investment assets.  Sometimes you might not want to risk too much but even with a relatively small bet, your bitcoin portion of your investment has decent probabilities of outperforming your other investments in the longer term.


If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.

I think that I agree with what you are saying here, because we should have some stake into bitcoin, even if we believe that the price is going lower.  So,  we do have to have some stake in the game in case the price does not go down, but instead goes up.  Accordingly, we are prepared for the BTC price to go either UP or DOWN.


Many years of following the wall observer proved every strategy correct
Essential in maintaining and increasing your wealth
The years see many falls, calculated risk, scams and bad luck
Always best to follow your money and not lose sight
If anyone ever steals your money, never stop looking
One day you might get your opportunity

Majormax
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August 17, 2018, 08:58:12 AM



maybe there is a declining trend in % dropped.
From about 90% (real number was 93-94%)
to about 80% (about 86% to be exact)
to?

94-86-78?

78% from 19783 is about $4350 (not predicting it because it could be 72-80).


That is one way of putting it. Seems reasonable and hopeful.

On that basis the bottom for this bear market should come in around $4k.
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