Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

I confess I got the longs/shorts ratio the wrong way round last night, since corrected.
now:

[soullyG]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[goldkingcoiner]

[El duderino_]

GUESS WHO’S BACK



Edit - We just hit $7051

My friend wait till 9 for vegeta 
But let the rally take us there

[HairyMaclairy]

I copped some slight heat for calling a local bottom yesterday.  But I think the thesis still stands with a local target of $7200 - $7300.  Then pucker.  

Update - still calling for a local target of $7200, to be followed by a burning sensation.

Don't ask me, I just work here.  Target $7200.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Bitcoin rose from 7k to just shy of 20k from the middle of November to the end of December.  It crossed 5k for the first time in October.

Let’s remember the above & be patient. We might get an end to 2018 of bankrupt shorters after all.

[lightfoot]

Nice way to wake up.

[marcus_of_augustus]

miners are the natural shorts and since Bitmain is/was the biggest miner i'm assuming they are the big fat short that looks like it is getting plucked and roasted about now ... just in time for it's IPO no less.

turkeys come and go

[HairyMaclairy]

Long short ratio

Long / short ratio still close to record high shorts according to my preferred calculation (lower bar = longs / shorts).  Some stung by the latest price hike but lots of squeeze fuel left.  



Accelerated recovery model

If you believe in an accelerated 2018 recovery (which I don't) then arguably we should be tracking the light blue line.  Light green line shows our current performance.  It's not completely out of the question however.  And nothing would make me happier than to be wrong on this point.  We need to jump to $9k.  Squeeze fuel would be one way to get there, which means a clean break of the current down trend line requiring a price of about $7500 (downtrend line currently sitting ~$7400).



Accelerated recovery model - zoomed out

This is what happens when you zoom out on the accelerated 2018 recovery.  Yeah.

[crypmike]

Haha nice video about Binance CZ as The Wolf of Wall Street

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHkWl2zhxsw&feature=youtu.be

[realr0ach]

miners are the natural shorts and since Bitmain is/was the biggest miner i'm assuming they are the big fat short that looks like it is getting plucked and roasted about now

I think you described things the exact opposite of how they function in reality.  How it really works is, shorting is only supposed to exist so people like farmers can hedge their crops; except in bitcoin, anytime a miner actually loads a big short to hedge current profits, they instantly get squeezed by the manipulator on Bitfinex.  So longs and shorts exist for absolutely no reason in bitcoin other than market manipulation, kind of like how there's no reason for bitcoin to exist since it does everything worse than silver and gold except how fast it can be dumped.

[ssmc2]

Nice work Hairy. Out of curiosity, which path are you leaning towards if not the accelerated version?

[marcus_of_augustus]

IF we repeat the 2013 twin peak pattern after 1st halving, and adjusting for extended peak-to-peak timeline (22months:30months), we could be looking at final 2nd halving bull run blow-off phase beginning soonish and peaking out ~early-Feb 2019 (48months:65months) ... slower but in the same ratio.

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice work Hairy. Out of curiosity, which path are you leaning towards if not the accelerated version?

The slow, non-twin peak version.  I think we have had our blow off top and will hit $20k++ sometime between early 2020 and late 2021.  

[Torque]

Paul Krugman : What an idiot    

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1033393663450259459

He discounts/ignores all of these things:

1. 2017 run up as on-chain noise (i.e., pure trading transactions not retail activity)

2. After Jan 2018 exchanges started batching transactions

3. Off-chain Lightning Network happened for small retail transactions

4. Trading activity lower right now due to bear market

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Nice work Hairy. Out of curiosity, which path are you leaning towards if not the accelerated version?

The slow, non-twin peak version.  I think we have had our blow off top and will hit $20k++ sometime between early 2020 and late 2021.  

Before a potentially manipulated epic BULL run laced with FOMO to $50,000

[Last of the V8s]

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

[bitserve]

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

Dude, that dump from 100K to 12K is fucking savage, you bearshit!

[Last of the V8s]