Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Bloomberg predicts crypto prices 2019 onward.

[JayJuanGee]

^^
Yeah indeed .... even from 200-300 to the price of today is incredible

I started at an average cost per BTC around $1,200 in late 2013, but that did not last long because as we know the price continued to drop for about a year and then get stuck in a low point of mid $200s for nearly another year, so buying as the price came down brought down my average cost per BTC to about $500 by early 2017.  In early 2017, I had some phone porting hacker issues when the BTC prices were in the $1,100 arena which caused my cost per BTC to rise to over $700 (due to losses)..... ..

I guess that my point is even if any of us BTC HODLers have some screw ups along the way that bring up our average cost per BTC, just from being in BTC for so long and striving towards BTC accumulation we still are likely sitting fairly pretty from the great BTC price appreciation.... even if we may not have received the full value of that two year long BTC price appreciation that started from $250 in mid to late 2015. 

I understand that there are also some BTC HODLers that might be in the $2k to $5k per BTC costs, and even they are not in a bad place with current BTC price dynamics and the threats that the price might go lower.. (but it might not, also... hahahaha)

The HODLers who are in the red, right now (might have average costs per BTC in the $8k to $19k range, but it really seems a lack of commitment to BTC if anyone has not been able to bring down their cost per BTC during the last more than 6 months), probably need to HODL and continue to buy BTC to continue to attempt to bring down their average cost per BTC, and it seems quite likely that just a few years down the road and perhaps as long as 5-10 years they are quite likely to experience decent price appreciation that outcompetes various traditional investments (no guarantee of course, but strategy and plan can help to increase the odds of HODLers and their position in the upcoming world that is likely to include more BTC awareness into the future).

My friend Just the same .... bought the top @2013.... and bought and played poker for as Many btc’s that he could what i’m surely know to be considered a big amount
Those  2 years of price decrease he adviced all of his friends and etc to buy Some of iT and like NOT one did buy cause iT was only dropping in price 

I Just met Him and got my btc story from When iT was hitting a bit over 350-ish....
today the day he still saying i’m the biggest luckbox that he knows cause from there iT was only Going up 

Offcourse all the old friend and NOCOINERS had growing intrest When btc was hitting 2-3-4K and fomo’d in

Through most of 2014, I did NOT say anything about my buying BTC, and surely I was still quite a bit "in the red" at that time; however, I believe it was the second FED auction of silk road coins in about late 2014 and BTC prices were in the upper $300s, and I told a lot of people at that time.  The only person that took a decent BTC stake was my mom... hahahahaha.. everyone else pretty much ignored me or said that they would think about it or that it sounded like a good idea (without acting).  Even my dad said that he thought it was a good idea, but after I hung up the phone with my dad and mom and push came to shove, he backed out, and my mom invested around $2k of her money and about $2k of what should have been his "chickening out" money.

So, after she bought, the price went into the $200s and stayed there for nearly a year, so during that time, she had acquired around 20 coins.  She had cashed out a few times after pressure from my dad to at least get out the principle.  I think that she is down to about 14 or 15 coins.. and she even cashed out around 3 coins in the $14k arena and bought me dad a freshwater fishing boat for a bit more than $30k-ish... hahahahaha... Crazy!!! 

I have not really changed my tune when talking with various other peeps.  I talk about dollar cost averaging, and buying dips.. but even these days, there are quite a few people who just say the same thing.. You did so good.... or your mom did so good, and they act like they are too late.  Frequently, I say that I don't give a shit what they do, yet I can already foresee a future of either $50k coins or $100k coins and they are chasing after coins at that time rather than taking some reasonable strategy before having to chase after the matter.

It's gonna take a while, guys (and gal) for some of this bitcoin information to actually sink into the heads of normal joe peeps.  Like I responded earlier, there may be a lot of people who heard the name bitcoin, but a vast majority of them, perhaps even in the more than 80% territory don't have too much of a clue about what it is exactly..... or they are mislead by disinformation and believe bitcoin to be something other than what it is... That is another crazy!!!!

[Hueristic]

Bloomberg predicts crypto prices 2019 onward.

lOOKS PRETTY GOOD, dASH STILL BE SCAMMIN THOUGH. damn Capslock!

[JayJuanGee]

^^
Yeah indeed .... even from 200-300 to the price of today is incredible

I started at an average cost per BTC around $1,200 in late 2013, but that did not last long because as we know the price continued to drop for about a year and then get stuck in a low point of mid $200s for nearly another year, so buying as the price came down brought down my average cost per BTC to about $500 by early 2017.  In early 2017, I had some phone porting hacker issues when the BTC prices were in the $1,100 arena which caused my cost per BTC to rise to over $700 (due to losses)..... ..

I guess that my point is even if any of us BTC HODLers have some screw ups along the way that bring up our average cost per BTC, just from being in BTC for so long and striving towards BTC accumulation we still are likely sitting fairly pretty from the great BTC price appreciation.... even if we may not have received the full value of that two year long BTC price appreciation that started from $250 in mid to late 2015.  

I understand that there are also some BTC HODLers that might be in the $2k to $5k per BTC costs, and even they are not in a bad place with current BTC price dynamics and the threats that the price might go lower.. (but it might not, also... hahahaha)

The HODLers who are in the red, right now (might have average costs per BTC in the $8k to $19k range, but it really seems a lack of commitment to BTC if anyone has not been able to bring down their cost per BTC during the last more than 6 months), probably need to HODL and continue to buy BTC to continue to attempt to bring down their average cost per BTC, and it seems quite likely that just a few years down the road and perhaps as long as 5-10 years they are quite likely to experience decent price appreciation that outcompetes various traditional investments (no guarantee of course, but strategy and plan can help to increase the odds of HODLers and their position in the upcoming world that is likely to include more BTC awareness into the future).

I'm not disciplined enough to know my average cost, would be intresting to know though. First time I bought bitcoin was coming down from its MtGox $32 dollar all time high and I was in the red for ages afterwards because it kept going all the way down to $2. However I lost my entire first stash in the bitcoinica hack. Last time I bought was in the $250 range. I sold off a bunch too early though still at extremely good profit. I don't think the strategy of buying all the way down and selling all the way up works for me. I like to try and time bottoms to accumulate then mostly hodl, if I can i will try to diversify on tops. That might mean only a few trades in a few years. Banking problems hindered me on the last top. Its a constant learning experience.

Ultimately, I agree that you need to tailorize a strategy that is comfortable for you and attempt to learn from that strategy, and perhaps bitcoin does have some differences from traditional kinds of investments, but my personal approach has been to attempt to employ strategies that are similar to what I had been using in my traditional investing - such as dollar cost averaging; however, some differences that I have found with bitcoin has been the 24/7 access and really various abilities to really make micro-trades with little to no fees that have caused me to develop some additional and what I would characterize as complementary strategies that make dollar cost averaging one of three legs - rather than the previous primary leg.

Sure there are some other strategies too, that carry through, which are things like managing your cash flow so that you are not overinvesting and living within your means, and then just having various targets. 

So yeah, part of the anal aspect of creating targets and plans and revising plans ends up having some kind of decent approximation of your various costs and establishing various means to verify whether your wealth is growing from the strategy including figuring out how much certain actions might be costing you which could also affect short term plans about how to cover some of those extra costs or to roll them into your overall expenses to help to figure out your next moves and set ups and what thresholds are going to trigger the next moves.

One issue that I have with any strategy that attempts to identify tops and bottoms is that it seems to require too much attempt to rely on a large quantity of inference (from missing information) and too much necessity to try to figure out the meaning and weight of various pieces of information including game theory movs of other people that I don't know and who could be motivated by factors way beyond my ability to understand.  Yeah, of course there are macro-tools, too, but I would just rather NOT be attempt to place too much emphasis on attempting to predict price direction as long as I have established a plan for either price direction, then I consider that approach to be way less stressful for myself and just inline with my past practice and what seems to be my personality preferences.

So, my question for you, afbitcoins, includes whether you believe that your system is working for you and are you learning and tweaking your system, and are you really prepared for either up or down?  Perhaps you have learned a bit from some of your prior experiences to just HODL some portion of your coins.. whether it is 25% or some other amount that you believe to be reasonable, but instead it seems that you are inclined to "play" with nearly the whole amount of your stash and attempt to predict price directions?   I do understand that sometimes you can win pretty BIG with that strategy, but still seems really difficult to either predict tops or bottoms or to get anywhere near close to predicting without suffering quite a few opportunity costs by being too much out when you want to be in or too much in when you want to be out .. and in that regard, to me, there just seems to be too much stress that is beyond my own tolerance(s).  How do you deal with all of that?  You get pleasure out of making BIG plays, rather than attempting some form of incrementalism?

[JayJuanGee]

I love how people praise shitcoins all like "its the better, newer bitcoin" but when BTC drops, the shitcoins drop too. Don't get me wrong, I like making money from shitcoins when BTC goes up, so do they but, cmon.... Are we ever going to see a BTC 2.0?

you already know the answer, right?

Bitcoin is the next bitcoin, so why fuck around with that other crap.. except maybe with a small portion of your overall portfolio.. perhaps less than 10% - even though I know some folks want to play with shit with higher quantities of their investment funds because they "get off" on gambling.

[HairyMaclairy]

I copped some slight heat for calling a local bottom yesterday.  But I think the thesis still stands with a local target of $7200 - $7300.  Then pucker.  

Update - still calling for a local target of $7200, to be followed by a burning sensation.

Don't ask me, I just work here.  Target $7200.

Target still $7200 then revisit $5700.

[JayJuanGee]

Bloomberg predicts crypto prices 2019 onward.

Do you have a link to the article in which Bloomberg included that chart?

[xhomerx10]

^https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

[HairyMaclairy]

Thanks I didn’t actually have the link myself - was lifted from twitter.  Posted as URL for fat fingered mobile users.

https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

[xhomerx10]

12 minutes old baby:

[marcus_of_augustus]

this gal knows her stuff, v. switched on to the insider games on wall st and sounds like shes grokked up on bitcoin ...

http://www.bitcoin.kn/2018/08/caitlin-long-financialization/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/ good 3 part series of articles on financialisation

[Hueristic]

this gal knows her stuff, v. switched on to the insider games on wall st and sounds like shes grokked up on bitcoin ...

http://www.bitcoin.kn/2018/08/caitlin-long-financialization/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/ good 3 part series of articles on financialisation

Yup, she gets it.

[crypmike]

Bullish on BTC
4h Golden Cross happened

[JayJuanGee]

Bullish on BTC
4h Golden Cross happened

Do people really rely on the 4 hour for anything quasi-long term?  Wouldn't we need to look at least daily candles?  Maybe 12 hour might be acceptable in certain circumstances, perhaps?  but my point is that longer term needs to be longer candles.. and I am thinking daily at least.

[crypmike]

Do people really rely on the 4 hour for anything quasi-long term?  Wouldn't we need to look at least daily candles?  Maybe 12 hour might be acceptable in certain circumstances, perhaps?  but my point is that longer term needs to be longer candles.. and I am thinking daily at least.

daily signals sometimes are too slow
I really like 4h charts, they are quite accurate and stronger than 1h

[elrippos friend]

Bloomberg predicts crypto prices 2019 onward.

I am absolutely OK with those numbers.

Except for those XMR figures - I don't see how it will reach those valuations.

Yeeeaaaahhh, well, you should have bought some 

[R9s]

My vote gave me $7,000-7,500. I believe that the price of Bitcoin can exceed $7,000, because I know that when people find that the altcoin is unreliable, they will choose bitcoin or US dollars to become safe-haven coins!

[El duderino_]

Yeeeaaaahhh, well, you should have bought some 

Dude.

LoL .... should bought dogecoin as well Going nuts    wtf ...

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[El duderino_]

^
Could really love a PUMP cause tomorrow  again BBQ evening with my GF family..... al here stephbrothers and stephsister and there partners are ALL NOCOINERS ,few weeks back @the wedding of one of them ONE said seriously to me ( he heard around christmas first time of BTC from me)  i thought iT would be totaly dead by now

And Thats Where i have to sit with tomorrow  So i think all of u can imagine that This evening When i go eat something with coiner friend and my girl iT Will be much more fun  -saturday drunk of fun
                                                                                                 -sunday probably drunk of misery