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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 41 (28.1%)
2020 - 57 (39%)
2021 - 34 (23.3%)
2022 - 8 (5.5%)
2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 5 (3.4%)
Total Voters: 146

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21178958 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
markiz73
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August 17, 2018, 01:38:16 PM

I think that August-September will be the bloodiest months. Probably, we will find the bottom. Perhaps in September there will be a small pamp, after which, if not hold back, then let's go even lower. October-November, in my opinion, will bring the market a revival, news from Wall Street may flood in on an event that will be the basis for a new bull market, as it was in the spring of 2017, when Japan legalized the crypto currency. By the end of the year, I expect signs of recovery from the market, where bitcoin can trade in the range of 9-12 thousand.

If in October-November there is no powerful event from Wall Street, which will raise the market from the bottom, then bitcoin can go well below $ 5 thousand, and the entire crypto market can hang out in the outset, close to zero and in the first half of 2019, and further restoration will begin. The question is when exactly growth begins - in autumn or in spring. It seems to me more likely that this will happen in the fall.
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Anon136
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August 17, 2018, 01:40:00 PM



Ok I am starting to get why you are the merit king.
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank.


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August 17, 2018, 01:58:16 PM

Well by some accounts I've 'runied [sic] the thread' with my 'babbyish [sic] cartoons' so here's one for the more serious-minded.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4885085.0 Technical Analysis Contest With Merit Rewards
cAPSLOCK
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August 17, 2018, 01:58:24 PM

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30135-X/fulltext
Dietary carbohydrate intake and mortality: a prospective cohort study and meta-analysis
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45195474
Low-carb diets could shorten life, study suggests

Unpopular study getting little love from bitcoin carnivore types.
(The research is pretty shoddy)

eg https://twitter.com/shillycrypto/status/1029707201726828546
Also the FDA recommended diet / food pyramid are already proven by nutritionists to be terrible. Too much carbs, not enough fat / protein. There's science behind carnivory, it's not just a contrarian thing.



I am personally an advocate of a moderately low carb lifestyle.  I went from 215lbs to 165 (I am 5'11").  I typically stay in ketosis.  So I eat VERY little refined carbohydrates, starches, or sugar.  And I have been doing it for nearly 2 years.  I probably average somewhere between 20-90 non fiber grams of carbs in a day.

So I eat TONS of fresh vegetables.  TONS.  My diet is veggies and meat.

Still, I find the "Bitcoin carnivory" thing to be a little odd.  It seems fairly extreme, and a bit tribal in it's manifestation.  

I suppose I am a bitcoin carnivore, in the same way I am a bitcoin maximalist. Wink  I eat tons of meat, but I also eat tons of green vegetables.  I believe in bitcoin fundamentally, and shun nearly all alt coins, but I am a fairly big believer in Monero. Smiley

Moderation in most things?
Anon136
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August 17, 2018, 02:41:25 PM
Last edit: August 17, 2018, 02:59:58 PM by Anon136
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMQX3l7OYYo&feature=youtu.be
Losing Money Without Losing Your Edge | Peter Brandt Mental Game of Trading
Quote
Peter explains some of the common mental pitfalls that can commonly affect traders. He explains how to deal with painful drawdowns, opens up about his own worst losing period, and reveals what it took for him to get back into the black.

Hes had drawdowns as much as 37%. AHAHAHA amateur Cheesy. I draw down 37% on a good day!

Yep. 37% is a joke. BTC'ers hodled thru -90% , twice.   Some alt holders hodled thru -98% and one or two even came good after that!

It's funny too cuz in that same video he actually talks about us crypto investors. Says that we are all hopped up on too much success too fast. That we have never felt real loss. I'm just like buddy you have NO idea. Cheesy I don't think there are any investors in the history of the world who have learned to keep a level head through losses like crypto hodlers.


ssmc2
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August 17, 2018, 02:49:12 PM

https://www.learningslowly.co/behavioural-bitcoin-report/banking-on-a-quick-bitcoin-recovery

Here's a serious bear case. Personally I don't see how we could slide through the 2020 halving without a pump somewhere outside of 6 months of it.
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August 17, 2018, 02:57:51 PM

https://www.learningslowly.co/behavioural-bitcoin-report/banking-on-a-quick-bitcoin-recovery

Here's a serious bear case. Personally I don't see how we could slide through the 2020 halving without a pump somewhere outside of 6 months of it.

Hmm. Seems the 'serious bear case' being discussed is taking 6 years (instead of 2 years) to get to $100K/BTC. In my book, that's not particularly bearish.
micgoossens
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August 17, 2018, 02:58:41 PM

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August 17, 2018, 03:03:46 PM
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https://www.learningslowly.co/behavioural-bitcoin-report/banking-on-a-quick-bitcoin-recovery

Here's a serious bear case. Personally I don't see how we could slide through the 2020 halving without a pump somewhere outside of 6 months of it.

I actually think he has some valid points, most particularly this:

Quote from: LearningSlowly.co
Let's say Bitcoin remains relatively stable for a few years vs the USD and its role as a ‘stablecoin’ becomes the new, incorrect media narrative. Krugman starts to say it’s becoming a better currency because of this. Traditional markets climb higher and an ETF fails to drive retail and institutional demand.

With the advent of shorting Bitcoin, we must always remember that any rise in the price of BTC can be countered by the pressure of getting shorted, which I believe will very likely keep Bitcoin's growth curve shallow, which would have the added "benefit" as he says, of getting a reputation as a "stable" currency.

So a gradual upward s-curve chart is likely ahead for BTC, most likely precipitated by deep pockets taking advantage of small rises to first buy, then sell BTC for a profit, and if upward momentum slows, taking on large shorting positions to cash in on pullbacks.
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August 17, 2018, 03:23:49 PM
Merited by bones261 (2)

Retirement-Anecdote: So, I checked up on the retirement portfolio I set in motion with "my people", funded by the BTC/Fiat sales I made in January.

Deferring payments to me by one year has worked out fantastically so far, even in this "blasé" market.

At this rate, my payments will start end of Q1 2019, and won't even start eating into the principle (Have not yet accounted for tax obligations, so that's gonna take some wind out of muh sails)

If I die early, I'm going to haunt the shit out of Rick. Concern increasing that honey is gonna smother me in my sleep one of these days.

Dude is getting pretty fucking morose and stressed out lately. Makes me sad. His company stock price has been giving it to him harder than I have, and they've started withholding more taxes on bonus and stock payouts as well, so he's concerned about not being able to meet his retirement goals over the next year.

Come on, Bitcorn. Hit $20k already, so Rick and I live happily ever after. OK ?

Also, a fucking bird crapped on my soft-top this morning when I went to get coffee. What a disgusting mess.

Sheeit.

Guess I'll wash my car later, but first I think I'm going to record some source materials. Got some really weird and interesting microphones in I want to play with today.

* BobLawblaw powers up the SD788T...
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August 17, 2018, 03:25:09 PM
Merited by Searing (1), mindrust (1)

Retail and institutional demand are quite unnecessary, and shorters will eventually lose out, because the supply is limited.
It will take a very few enlightened people to snap up the remaining coins.
Anon136
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August 17, 2018, 03:42:30 PM

Retail and institutional demand are quite unnecessary, and shorters will eventually lose out, because the supply is limited.
It will take a very few enlightened people to snap up the remaining coins.

Bitcoin was flying up to 20k at a time when the fundamentals were concerning. Strife in the community. A bitcoin convention that couldn't be paid for in bitcoin. A credible fork attack. Uncertainty around whether scaling would ever be achieved. Now we are in a market where the fundamentals are infinitely more reassuring. The chinko-ver fork attack is relatively settled and they have lost. We now have a some what tested path to scaling. Things are looking brighter as the price is looking dimmer. This says to me that all that is needed to win out in this market is patience. Which, lucky for me, is like the only virtue I don't lack!
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August 17, 2018, 04:10:23 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbVV7DbbjxM DEA Special Agent Silenced During Tone Vays Interview
This incident occurred during a Tone Vays livestream when he interviews a DEA Special Agent and asks about the government "ending bitcoin if they wanted to". HMM @ 10:30 where she is told to STFU.
found the rest v interesting too

from same content maker https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apNtazCSpGs Wojak Hijacks a Plane in Seattle and does a Barrel Roll
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August 17, 2018, 05:10:44 PM

Hey QQ, which chart website do you loveable assholes use that has up-to-date indicators and no lag?
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August 17, 2018, 05:44:49 PM

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August 17, 2018, 06:02:20 PM
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Hey QQ, which chart website do you loveable assholes use that has up-to-date indicators and no lag?
cryptowat.ch
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August 17, 2018, 06:06:50 PM
Last edit: August 17, 2018, 06:22:07 PM by bustedsynx

fuck
Yeah, fuckin four days of dojis. Please rip the band aid off!
(@instabot)
#Nikeknows #smellslikevictory

Yeah, I have buys in that price level, even in the $3k level.  But the problem is: everrrryyybody is also waiting for that so-called capitulation candlestick. In any case, I already bought some at $6,800.

Maybe some of the answers to my questions are obvious, but I am not sure what you are saying.  

What kind of odds are you giving to your downwards dip scenario (maybe down to $5,400)?  Greater than 70%?  Your down scenario is not as bearish as other peeps?  Why wouldn't the price go below $5k, once it breaks below $5,700?  We have already seen close to $5,700 a few times since early February, no?

Did you buy some BTC in the $6,800 range recently, because the BTC price has been quite a bit below $6,800, recently, too.  

Has your buying been at various price points along the way?  Did you buy more above $6,800?  Have you sold some, too?  

Was the reason for your buying BTC in the $6,800 range because at the time of your purchase, you were not sure if the price was going to go down further?  And, was the reason that you did not buy below $6,800 because your lower buying target prices have not been met yet?

I ask because we all know that we have have had several BTC buying opportunities in the past more than six months of below $6k (starting from the beginning of February).

RE: Odds - crashes from parabolic crashes tend to overshoot 0.786 fib correction (check Nasdaq, Shanghai, Dot com crashes).

No selling yet since I'm still not done buying. I'm ready to buy higher too if Bitcoin breaks out of 200day moving average which is around $7,900 now.




How come you bought some at 6800 when you foresee 3k level?

It's called scaling-in
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August 17, 2018, 06:43:57 PM

Mmmm after those critical 24hours ...... are we in for a weekend pump or dump ?
Beside BTC the weekend dinner time taking off very early , sitting on the wine already enjoy the weekends and keep on buying the low prices When possible , sit back and enjoy the ride  Grin
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August 17, 2018, 06:46:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Rosewater Foundation (1)

https://coinatmradar.com/charts/#growth

The ATM growth sorta stagnated/stalled in July, but it seems it has resumed its speed for the past couple of weeks.

At current rate it will complete the doubling since the beginning of 2018 in a couple months and there is still the possibility of ending the year with 5000+ ATM's worldwide.

USA accounts for more than half the ATM's (2191 of a total 3606 worldwide) but it is interesting to note how some countries like Russian Federation have a higher growing rate having gone from almost none to 77 now.

Austria keeps growing with 182 ATM's, which sounds awesome for such a "small" country. Anyone have any idea of the reason? Any Austrians here that could shed some light?

Surprisingly, there's none in China and only 11 in Japan. Maybe because of a "regulations" thing, at least in the case of China.

It is a pity we don't have stats on usage of those ATM's as that would be a very valuable data but the fact that their number keeps growing at very good rate is still very promising.
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August 17, 2018, 07:05:12 PM
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Check out the number of unspent outputs. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/utxo-count?timespan=1year

I think once it breaks above 55 million, we will all be happy.  Grin

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