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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25494451 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Zaanda
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November 20, 2018, 09:48:56 PM

https://i.postimg.cc/4dj5Wm3T/tttt.png


what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?
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November 20, 2018, 09:51:46 PM

Is this where the fucking $3,300 wall number is coming from? I was wondering who was pulling that number and from where.
I think their number is a bit low. They estimate 5c/kw for an S9 while the Chinese average for electricity is around 8c, and the US is around 10-12c. I think right now they're mining at a loss, and dumping coins to try and support this stupid hash war. Guess it will be worth it, but it's not sustainable in the long run.
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November 20, 2018, 09:54:58 PM




what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

You will understand when you will have no way out of your Tutters ... . Good lunch with that.
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November 20, 2018, 09:56:02 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

Dig Bicks is the NotLambChop of this cycle.

I suggest you put him/it on ignore.



I waited the longest time before I finally made NLC the second name on my ignore list, after MatTheTwat.

At least she had a glimmer of intelligence though, despite being an obnoxious asshole.

Can't say the same about DB. He's obviously not the sharpest wad of gum in the knife drawer.

His choice of an image to post speaks volumes in support of what my post implied.  Roll Eyes Stupid kid just doesn't get it.

Sigh.
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November 20, 2018, 09:56:53 PM

I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

You could be correct that this is going to be over soon (perhaps within a few days), but it remains difficult to be glad about the whole situation.. and we also cannot really rest assured that it is going to be over, either.

It is similar to previous downtrends when posters are rejoicing about falling BTC prices, and they keep rejoicing and the BTC price keeps falling.

After a while, the rejoicing stops as the BTC price continues to fall.  At some point, the price stops falling, too.. and I would rather NOT go through all of that.  I would rather return to UPPITY, even if the shitty alt coins have to come along with us...but it still seems that even though bitcoins are being shook, the alt coins are not shaking enough... and bearwhales can still smell blood..   and purge and purge and purge... .. 

Me thinks that it remains difficult to feel "glad" under such ongoing uncertain circumstances.

Indeed, no reason to feel glad. I wonder, what is the average margin cost for miners at this moment? And how does that fit in the picture of major miners being involved in the Btrash war?


A few days ago, BitMex research had suggested something like $3341 per BTC, and it remains unclear about how they arrived at that number.

https://twitter.com/bitmexresearch?lang=en

I am sure that there is some playing around with BTC hash power, but overall, so far, BTC hashpower has remained pretty stable (and relatively high) through the past few days.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
Is this where the fucking $3,300 wall number is coming from? I was wondering who was pulling that number and from where.

So, they are risking their BTC profits for a war in a only losses quest. Strange guys these miners, would Obelix say.

BTC price movements are not single issue motivated, and so even though playing around with hashpower is a dynamic and a gamble that some miners are willing to play, others are not going to play around with their hashpower for ideological purposes, but instead be motivated by mining in the location that gives them both the most reward and the most future value reward (to the extent that they do not dump some of the coins along the way).

Somebody tell me if they have better information, but it seems that mining power was moving around more last year, during some time period after the bcash fork, but some of those miners may have learned their lesson.. and furthermore, the bitmex research shows that anyone moving their hashpower for bcash, currently, is most likely engaging in such behavior for ideological purposes, and perhaps even erroneous economic considerations (including sunk cost fallacy - which would be attempting to salvage any value that they can out of bcash bags).   I doubt that they really believe that they are going to be able to sufficiently unload that shit or that the bcash market is liquid enough to absorb their bcash bags... so their main hope would be to unload bcash slowly enough that no one would notice (good luck with that).   
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November 20, 2018, 09:59:56 PM

Hmmm... anyone else notice this about deposits from bitstamp?  Timely  Roll Eyes

REST OF THE WORLD

USD INTERNATIONAL deposits are temporarily unavailable due to ongoing migration to a different service provider. USD DOMESTIC deposits may run into minor delays.


Decided to make a transfer anyway. Hopefully it goes smooth since my bank is Canadian.



Yes, saw it yesterday as I was thinking of sending in (or rather back) some dollars.  I'm not in USA, but I do have a USD account (specially for USD / BTC /Stamp) which was super convenient for taking money out.  Now it is looking less convenient. 

I will need to send EUR via SEPA (which will cost me to buy) then take another hit on exchanging into USD at Stamp to trade. Ugh.
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November 20, 2018, 10:00:05 PM

It's more than 3300. With S9's I would guess it's around 6k a coin at current difficulty. Granted you could ratchet the diff down slowly, but I think they're mining at a loss now to wave dicks. Eventually they will have to pay investors/electric bills/bribes.

Devils in the details, no?

There is going to be a difference between the efficiencies of small miners and depending on location (electricity costs), so would the average for BTC be closer to $3,300 or $6k or do we not have better information to narrow it down a bit?  Of course, the more efficient miners with the lower costs, may well be o.k. with some lower prices in order to hope that some of the less efficient miners, on the higher end of the spectrum get out of bitcoin hashing services.
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November 20, 2018, 10:03:20 PM

I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

Bwahaha. It doesn't happen that easily. We're going to keep grinding lower for months. There will be a few rallies to the upside, just to raise your spirits a little bit. Once you see a glimmer of hope, the Bogdanoffs will sell again and crush it. Rinse and repeat.

It will only end when our spirits have been utterly decimated, and our souls nearly destroyed. This thread will be nothing but tumbleweeds and r0ach posts. That's when you know we're starting to head back up. It will take a few months for anyone to even realize we're in recovery mode. We won't have time to read charts at that point anyway. We'll be too busy tying nooses and working overtime at McDonald's.

Then the bull returns and we get to do it all over again. Choo choo motherfuckers.
I thoroughly enjoyed the story telling time.
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November 20, 2018, 10:07:31 PM

Breakeven cost is $4000-4500 for the GPU mining as a way to buy BTC

(last gen GPUs, 0.1 usd/kwh)
JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 10:09:32 PM




what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...
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November 20, 2018, 10:17:32 PM

Found this chart on reddit. Quite possible timeline. With nice bottom. Bear trap next summer then BAM. Two years of fun.


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November 20, 2018, 10:19:37 PM

I was trying to explain to one bloke that it doesn't matter if you buy 0.1 bitcoin or 100000 of some shitcoin for same amount of money, if it rises 50% the gains will be the same. He firmly believed that his 100000 coins will make him more money, as the numerical value of them is higher. Many know nothing about math, sad.

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.

To prove it with an example, say a small project has a market cap of 1mil $. An investor who will throw 1 million $ on this coin will increase its price by 100% (doubling the coin's price)
If the same investor would throw the same 1 million $ in BTC which has 66 billion $ market cap, the increase in price would be a drop in the bucket.

However, we can argue that BTC would draw more investors... the thing is that no matter how you look at it, we're speculating here! If someone is investing in small market cap coins which he has researched and believes that they have potential, then that's a high-risk high-reward play. It's definitely not the same thing as investing the same amount in BTC.
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November 20, 2018, 10:23:44 PM

I was trying to explain to one bloke that it doesn't matter if you buy 0.1 bitcoin or 100000 of some shitcoin for same amount of money, if it rises 50% the gains will be the same. He firmly believed that his 100000 coins will make him more money, as the numerical value of them is higher. Many know nothing about math, sad.

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.

To prove it with an example, say a small project has a market cap of 1mil $. An investor who will throw 1 million $ on this coin will increase its price by 100% (doubling the coin's price)
If the same investor would throw the same 1 million $ in BTC which has 66 billion $ market cap, the increase in price would be a drop in the bucket.

However, we can argue that BTC would draw more investors... the thing is that no matter how you look at it, we're speculating here! If someone is investing in small market cap coins which he has researched and believes that they have potential, then that's a high-risk high-reward play. It's definitely not the same thing as investing the same amount in BTC.

"If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin."

That is not math, no science, just sentiment.
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November 20, 2018, 10:27:22 PM

That's not right. If a project is young and its coin's market cap is low, then its upside potential is higher than a higher market cap coin.
[...]

That's not what he's saying - he's talking about the value per coin or token irrespective of supply.  I've witnessed this first-hand from my interactions too. On the whole people are innumerate, which is remarkable when you think about it - I mean all the calculations that your unconscious has to perform just to achieve the feat of balance, yet throw a simple equation at the conscious and it falls to pieces.
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November 20, 2018, 10:27:50 PM

They are making more from shorting than losing on mining.  

orly? Who's 'they'?

Ayre, Jihan, Ver and CSW.  

You don’t think they are in it for the ideology do you?
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November 20, 2018, 10:32:22 PM

Just got back from a day at the hospital. Damn...
I'll hodl as long as it takes, but damn


bitcoin is now a part of history books Wink weeeee

Time to write some best-sellers about bitcoin(history), in order to maintain income... .  Grin

 I believe a hat is required in order to be a successful writer.



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Agh ja Xhomerx, super well done ! I will put it to active duty tomorrow! Thanks .

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November 20, 2018, 10:37:16 PM

I'm glad this is happening so it will finally be over and done with.

I think we will have reached our new ATL since the last ATH within a day or 3.

Bwahaha. It doesn't happen that easily. We're going to keep grinding lower for months. There will be a few rallies to the upside, just to raise your spirits a little bit. Once you see a glimmer of hope, the Bogdanoffs will sell again and crush it. Rinse and repeat.

It will only end when our spirits have been utterly decimated, and our souls nearly destroyed. This thread will be nothing but tumbleweeds and r0ach posts. That's when you know we're starting to head back up. It will take a few months for anyone to even realize we're in recovery mode. We won't have time to read charts at that point anyway. We'll be too busy tying nooses and working overtime at McDonald's.

Then the bull returns and we get to do it all over again. Choo choo motherfuckers.

We are the fighting Uruk-hai


JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 10:47:13 PM

They are making more from shorting than losing on mining.  

orly? Who's 'they'?

Ayre, Jihan, Ver and CSW.  

You don’t think they are in it for the ideology do you?


You are likely correct, hairy bearie...

If you are a relatively BIG player, you should not be making relatively BIG bets without hedging your position, just in case your initial plan might NOT go too well....

So, surely, the BIGGER players are likely taking both sides of these kinds of bets, and some of us smaller players may or may not be able to know, exactly where they are going, before they go.
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November 20, 2018, 11:13:41 PM

https://i.postimg.cc/4dj5Wm3T/tttt.png


what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...

sorry for my english.  i am happy you chose the example of bitstamp.

I try to explain harmonic patterns appear on USDT exchanges much more regularly than on a place similar to bitstamp.additionally bitstamp is lower price than a bitcoin live sell exchance such as cex.io.  how can this be?  if harmonics are the purest form of Fibonacci numbers in trading then this suggests that tether trades fit a more natural organic pattern. 

bitstamp for my experice is a good example.  it is higher in bull times, and lower in bear times, suggesting the manipulation is there not with usdt.    When harmonic patterns show on tether echanges, especaily bitstamp will behave almost opersite to the expected result of fibbonacci harmonic patterns.  this is why the price flutuates between supposed usd and usdt, and additionally why bitstamp is lower than cex.io. 

I believe that bitstamp especally is price manipulating, either a alorthim program, the exchange or one or many traders.   you can also see the bitstam orderbook is not behaving normally.
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November 20, 2018, 11:15:08 PM
Last edit: November 20, 2018, 11:26:49 PM by Biodom
Merited by cAPSLOCK (20), bones261 (2), JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), Dunkelheit667 (1)

Found this chart on reddit. Quite possible timeline. With nice bottom. Bear trap next summer then BAM. Two years of fun.




Nice graph, but it is just a projection of the 2013-2015 onto 2018 bear market.
I doubt that it would repeat itself.
The "Decreasing bounce" model suggests that we painted the bottom at $4000-4300.
See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg44213157#msg44213157
I will reiterate the model here:

Two previous large bears were 93-94%, then 86%, accordingly we should have less  this time around (less downturn then prior). If we decline more than 85.9%, then this model is invalidated.
I initially favored 78% decline=$4350 (violated on the intraday basis, but we will see the "close" at US midnight), but anything between 78 and 85.9% would still fit.
This model would be invalidated if we stay below $2800, otherwise we are still in it.
The average price between $4350 and 2800 is $3575.

Interestingly, we can also examine bounces:
The first peak was at $32, then decline to $2, bounce to $1160, decline to $150, and bounce to $19873.
Therefore, the first bounce ($2 to $1160) was 57900%
The second bounce was smaller in % ($150 to $19873)= 13100% (X0.226 of the first in %%).

Therefore, if we would bottom at around $4000, then this model predicts the next peak at or less than 2963% higher than $4000 or $122500.
At the lowest possible bound decline of the model ($2800), the next peak would be projected similarly 2963% higher than $2800 or about $85700.


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