Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nanobtc]

{EDIT}

Food is being destroyed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-grains/harvesting-in-a-trade-war-u-s-crops-rot-as-storage-costs-soar-idUSKCN1NQ0GA

Fontenot plowed under 1,000 of his 1,700 soybean acres this fall, chopping plants into the dirt instead of harvesting more than $300,000 worth of beans.

This is so 1930ies, apart from us being in Depression (so far).

Fake/incorrect/hearsay news, or idiot farmer. Many news outlets make up their own words.

I know soybeans. Anyone who has a thousand + acres of soybeans (at least in North America) has surely forsaken "plowing" for land tillage decades ago. That is so 1960's.

[fairyvibes]

At least the US government won't be getting any money from me this year because of these losses.

[jojo69]

who let all the riffraff in?

[nanobtc]

@Theymos Bring back newbie jail.

[bitserve]

Fuck, for one second I thought I had somehow felt out of WO and into the wild side of the forum.

We were supposed to be safe here!

[HairyMaclairy]

This is like a verbal DDOS.

[bones261]

@infrofront Where are you? Bad freeverse sin incoming. Please delete!

[HairyMaclairy]

He is probably allowd to sleep for three hours a night

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

[Icygreen]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

[kaeltr]

Hmm, that volume really looks weak.

Hope 3800$ will hold.

 

[Elwar]

So in 2014-2015 the price was down from the all time high. The reality is that the price shooting up to $1200 a year after it was about $12 was a bit premature. But the halving dislodged the supply from demand in a way that nobody really knew what to expect since it was completely new to the market. The price came down to more reasonable levels for the amount of bitcoins coming into the market vs the demand.

In 2016 there was another halving. This time people anticipated that the price would rise like in 2012 so they began buying. The same thing happened again, the supply and demand were dislodged and people misjudged how that would affect the price. But this time there were some larger investors involved since institutions were able to dip their toes into it. Thus the rise to $20k.

The price right now reflects the fact that there are some large institutions with their money in bitcoin but I believe we found the equilibrium of supply and demand around the $6400 range. Though that may have been due to remnants of the FOMO folks still hoping for recovery. Right now people are unreasonably dumping but we still may have some FOMO hold outs that are not yet desperate to leave, so the price may still go down further until they are scared out of the market. Institutions may even start dropping off at times of investor reporting or other institutional reasons. Some may recognize this as a cycle and double down (but don't trust Wall Street folks to be that smart).

The key here is that there is not another halving until 2020. So we will be in this price discovery phase for at least a year.

If history repeats itself, the few remaining hodlers will desperately be telling people a year from now "the halving is coming...hold on just a little longer!...Please!...".

Or, people who saw that the price began to rise a few months before the last halving may start putting their money in a few months before a few months before the halving.

Either way, I would say at least until next fall you should not expect to see any decent prices. News, technical advances, etc. never really have any impact on the price (at least in the short term, it just provides fundamentals in the long term).

I wish this were not the case as I will be selling seasteads starting next year. Coinciding with a market boom would be ideal. But that's just the reality of how the market reacts to halvings.

Then again, who knows...past does not predict future...but we can see some similarities.

[kaeltr]

^
I give it until the end of the year.
If we get back to 6500$ by then it would be very bullish, imho.

Otherwise we just entered the slope of hope.


EDIT: thanks for the merit, btw

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

[kaeltr]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

gneeheehee ...

roach is buying ...

[Wekkel]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Yes, lots of words is what he uses.

But there is an interesting thought on what he calls the ‘Metagame’. In other posts, he describes the behaviour of a coyote encountering a group of humans. The coyote stares down the humans with an expression like ‘I do not care for you humans; I’m not afraid of you’. And puts his nose in the air, turns around and goes away.

The coyote wins this game.

But the humans get together and discuss what they saw. A threatening predator that shows no fear for humans and willing to confront them instead of running away scared at the first sight of humans. The humans vow to hunt this animal so that it’s numbers are decimated.

The humans win. The humans win the Metagame. The coyote is not able to understand that by winning the individual with his behaviour, it is losing the Metagame.

I guess that is what he tries to ask: how is the cryptocurrency community intending to deal with the humans called ‘king’ when taking away their claim on society’s money? How will it save itself from the wrath of the King?

You’ll have to read it all between the lines but I sense that the author understands the tremendous power of of the idea of cryptocurrency. But somehow considers it a lost cause if it’s community does not come to terms with the King on how to blend in and give the King the King’s due.

Personally, I think the King may have less teeth than envisaged. On the other hand, it does is a force to recon with.

This guy does a lot of deep thinking (with a lot of words to express it   ). It stems me positive to see some signs that he may be moving ahead in his thinking about cryptocurrency. We won’t make it just with this WO community (sorry guys).

[JayJuanGee]

^
I give it until the end of the year.
If we get back to 6500$ by then it would be very bullish, imho.

Otherwise we just entered the slope of hope.


EDIT: thanks for the merit, btw

That's not a bad assessment in order to suggest that if we don't get a certain amount of UP, then likely we are confirmed in a down and/or flat for a longer time.

However, kaeltr, since you are new here, maybe you should explain your own BTC position... your approximate entry point(s) and your current strategy (maybe in context of your past strategy)?  How about other coins?  You got any of thems?

[JayJuanGee]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

I don't recall you ever really disclosing your BTC position, but I may have missed some of that, too.

[El duderino_]

^
Thought the same but never no Maybe VERY Maybe @ the Total begin .... but think not also not gonna argue that cause i’m not 100%sure

[Elwar]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Yes, lots of words is what he uses.

But there is an interesting thought on what he calls the ‘Metagame’. In other posts, he describes the behaviour of a coyote encountering a group of humans. The coyote stares down the humans with an expression like ‘I do not care for you humans; I’m not afraid of you’. And puts his nose in the air, turns around and goes away.

The coyote wins this game.

But the humans get together and discuss what they saw. A threatening predator that shows no fear for humans and willing to confront them instead of running away scared at the first sight of humans. The humans vow to hunt this animal so that it’s numbers are decimated.

The humans win. The humans win the Metagame. The coyote is not able to understand that by winning the individual with his behaviour, it is losing the Metagame.

I guess that is what he tries to ask: how is the cryptocurrency community intending to deal with the humans called ‘king’ when taking away their claim on society’s money? How will it save itself from the wrath of the King?

You’ll have to read it all between the lines but I sense that the author understands the tremendous power of of the idea of cryptocurrency. But somehow considers it a lost cause if it’s community does not come to terms with the King on how to blend in and give the King the King’s due.

Personally, I think the King may have less teeth than envisaged. On the other hand, it does is a force to recon with.

This guy does a lot of deep thinking (with a lot of words to express it   ). It stems me positive to see some signs that he may be moving ahead in his thinking about cryptocurrency. We won’t make it just with this WO community (sorry guys).

I'm not disagreeing with the guy. Just kept waiting for the metagame portion that you mentioned.

I believe the ideal is that Bitcoin itself is a virus to the king. Slowly consuming until the king (banks) is dead.

Strangely enough, this was discussed in some of our seasteading discussions. We don't want to piss off the puppet masters who actually control things (especially early on). So we may have to put a Citibank on one of the first seasteads as an offering to the gods.