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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 36 (27.5%)
2020 - 54 (41.2%)
2021 - 31 (23.7%)
2022 - 5 (3.8%)
2023 - 1 (0.8%)
Never - 4 (3.1%)
Total Voters: 131

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21175614 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 04:23:26 PM


I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back.  

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256

Yep... all assertions of this as a bear market, before mid November 2018, were premature....  Tongue Tongue Tongue  even though you ended up being subsequently correct.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  


We are kind of on the same page, here.

Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.


I might revisit that later, but I think currently I am comfortable with what i said.. and I used staying above $4.5k for 6 months as my rough marker for that.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.


Don't get me wrong.  If I change into saying that we are now in a bull market, I will also have some conditions for converting back to saying that we are in a bear market after that, so maybe I would only be in such saying that we are in a bull market for a short period of time, if the conditions don't sufficiently hold up in order to sustain such new status.

 My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).


You and I are coming closer on some of these numbers - though I would tweak them a bit more towards the upside and put the dragging out period shorter, even worse case scenarios, because even though momentum carries dynamics, the halvening in May-ish is going to have its own dynamics too that kind of cuts into some of the more bearish paintings of possible negative outcomes.

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !


Hahahahaha... That comes off as a bit patronizing..  but maybe you are just trying to get a bit of a dig in... ?

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.

Touching $5k is likely NOT as difficult as maintaining, but of course, you know that, too.
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March 08, 2019, 04:27:46 PM

Starbucks Will Laugh if You Still Use Cash in 3 Years: Bitcoin Bull Draper

Great, just what I need, more condescension from the local hipster barista...



That's a damn impressive neckbeard. Wonder if he also listens to emo and waxes philosophical about socialism.
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March 08, 2019, 04:27:47 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

First of all, Bitcoin is in a bull market since the beginning  in 2008-2009. For a truly bear market we can talk if the prices are lower 20% from the ATH after 10 years or more (this is the case with gold and silver, which are nearly 10 years much lower than the ATH - the so called "secular" bear market). What we have with Bitcoin is a partial case of a cyclical bear market that can last up to 4 years because of the halvings. The actual length of the cycles is much less than 4 years - so far 1 year tops. And even if we use the term "cyclical bear market" we won't be 100% correct, since the other conditions are not fulfilled: widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment (which actually define the bear market). The reasons for the dips and crashes may be multiple (MtGox dump fear, fork fear, etc.). but are not relatable to the future of Bitcoin at all. What happened in 2015 and 2018 is the most common falling wedge pattern, which is part of the bull market: (https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal)

"The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs. "


So, at some point this year, we will break out from the falling wedge pattern and resume the bull trend. All we need is more volume so the break out will be defended.

Agreed that we are overall in a bull market....

the bear or bull market labels can still be reasonably applied on shorter term BTC price direction probabilities.
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March 08, 2019, 04:34:11 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)



International Women's day

+1 WO sM for Bitstamp

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March 08, 2019, 04:35:56 PM

A Multibillion-Dollar Cryptocurrency Based on ‘Lies’: US Arrests Alleged OneCoin Leader

https://www.coindesk.com/a-multibillion-dollar-cryptocurrency-based-on-lies-us-arrests-alleged-onecoin-leader
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March 08, 2019, 04:41:24 PM

Toxic2040
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March 08, 2019, 04:42:25 PM



International Women's day

+1 WO sM for Bitstamp



+1 WOsMerit for you sir..great minds...

----------

I am kinda anti anything when it comes to big businesses but I have to say that I do enjoy it when Google puts together something worthwhile, such as their tribute to International Women's Day.

All you misogynists should take the time to look through some of the incredible achievements that women have accomplished.

https://artsandculture.google.com/project/women-in-culture


**note to xhomerx   see!!  a pussyhat has ear thingies
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March 08, 2019, 04:46:10 PM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 05:15:33 PM by JimboToronto
Merited by Toxic2040 (1), serveria.com (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still edging up more or less sideways... currently $3894USD/$5233CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

The Bitcoin bull is under construction  Wink



JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 05:07:56 PM

F*ck I'm not very good at these graphs but for some reason they look very bullish to me!  Cool

They are, we have tested support levels & bounced back up each time. All points towards the bottom being already in & we’ll start to test higher resistance levels.

The same happened in 2015 after the Gox crash. We’re still in a period of sideways but expect to leave the valley of death behind & begin to chip away testing higher resistance points.

one thing that seems to be different between now and 2015, is that now there seems to be around 3x or 4x more participation in the WO thread.  There are few active participants from 2015 besides you and me LFC... but anyhow, I am not sure if it matters.  Of course, BTC is more popular and more adoption, so I doubt that we need to go through the same extreme of deserted WO thread, as we did in 2015 before we are ready to slowly migrate uppity, as you suggested could be our current price dynamics.

By the way the slow migration up will break at some point and cause some short term upwards explosions in price that end up crashing back down before we really know that we are really heading UP for good.
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March 08, 2019, 05:23:34 PM
Merited by kenzawak (1), VB1001 (1)

@VB1001 - When I started buying £100 bought nearly 1 whole bitcoin. Fast forward 5 years & imagine if we see that % increase in price in another 5 years. This is why you should never doubt yourself buying smaller amounts.

£100 worth of BTC now could be worth a shit load in 5 years. As I always say buy what you can afford to when you can afford to now & enjoy the profits in the future.

One day my friend all the patience will be rewarded.

I mentioned this several times before too.  I had some cash flow issues in 2015, and frequently in 2015, I would buy small amounts on a daily basis, even below $5 worth, just to stack away my buy for the day and some of those buys really added up... just imagine $30 would get you well over .1BTC.

  I know that currently some places will not allow you to make such low purchases, but I was able to make many low purchase amounts in 2015, and my point is that low amounts of purchases can add up and their value can become quite a lot more with the passage of time, too. 

hashtag Stacking satoshis.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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March 08, 2019, 05:34:59 PM

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2019/03/us-marshals-want-help-disposing-virtual-currencies/155381/
Quote
Stored cryptocurrencies must be kept in a segregated digital wallet set aside specifically for the Marshals Service and must be safeguarded against “theft, human error, system failures and acts of God,” the documents state. The contractor must also be able to “brute force,” or be able to hack into, wallets that are “locked by error or technical difficulties,” enabling marshals to gain access no matter what happens.

On the disposal side, the winning vendor must be able to convert the digital currencies to physical money, either by exchanging directly to U.S. dollars, exchanging for more liquid virtual currencies and assets or through a sealed-bid auction. The contractor must also have a mechanism for returning seized assets to the original owners when required.
....
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March 08, 2019, 05:36:07 PM

I am kinda anti anything when it comes to big businesses but I have to say that I do enjoy it when Google puts together something worthwhile, such as their tribute to International Women's Day.

All you misogynists should take the time to look through some of the incredible achievements that women have accomplished.

Happy wahmen's day.

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March 08, 2019, 05:45:27 PM

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2019/03/us-marshals-want-help-disposing-virtual-currencies/155381/
Quote
Stored cryptocurrencies must be kept in a segregated digital wallet set aside specifically for the Marshals Service and must be safeguarded against “theft, human error, system failures and acts of God,” the documents state. The contractor must also be able to “brute force,” or be able to hack into, wallets that are “locked by error or technical difficulties,” enabling marshals to gain access no matter what happens.

On the disposal side, the winning vendor must be able to convert the digital currencies to physical money, either by exchanging directly to U.S. dollars, exchanging for more liquid virtual currencies and assets or through a sealed-bid auction. The contractor must also have a mechanism for returning seized assets to the original owners when required.
....

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March 08, 2019, 05:55:13 PM

I had too much meat in a wedding party. Now feeling my stomach is going to explode LOL
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March 08, 2019, 05:56:51 PM

By the way the slow migration up will break at some point and cause some short term upwards explosions in price that end up crashing back down before we really know that we are really heading UP for good.

Jay, don’t you think it’s weird that the cycle seems to repeat itself. We’re following the same pattern from bear to bull markets. I feel like we’ve been here before which is because we have Cheesy

I certainly won’t be complaining if we make the same kind of gains in price from 2014 Gox induced bear market to 2017 bull market in this cycle.

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March 08, 2019, 05:59:13 PM

Good night WO’s

Your video game is terrible:

https://store.steampowered.com/app/1035300/cockroach_Planet_Survival/
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March 08, 2019, 05:59:41 PM

I had too much meat in a wedding party. Now feeling my stomach is going to explode LOL
Go into a food coma, wake up at a price change, it always happens to me on the holidays and the phone notification going off.
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March 08, 2019, 06:04:18 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

https://www.carper.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/5/0/508a6447-853f-4f41-85e8-1927641557f3/D5CFA4A0FC19997FF41FB3A5CE9EB6F7.equifax-report-3.6.19.pdf

Quote
In a Senate report, Equifax is accused of neglecting its own cybersecurity policies which ultimately led to the 2017 data breach that exposed personally identifiable information (PII) of 145 million Americans . The company's key Senior Managers didn't attend cybersecurity meetings and an audit identified a backlog of over 8,500 known vulnerabilities in its network. Over 1,000 of these were considered critical, high, or medium risks that were found on systems that could be accessed by individuals from outside of Equifax's information technology ("IT") networks.

The company instituted an "honor system" for patching its systems and didn't abide by its own patching policy that required the company's IT department to patch critical vulnerabilities within 48 hours. Equifax wasn't even sure of the network assets that it owned, so it was impossible for Equifax to know if vulnerabilities existed on its networks. When threats were announced by the U.S. government with the highest critical score possible; the company's security scans failed to identify the vulnerability. This is because the company lacked a comprehensive inventory of its IT assets. Equifax also allowed its SSL certificates to expire 8 months prior to the 2017 data breach which allowed hackers access to the network for 78 days undetected. Equifax waited six weeks before notifying the public of the breach.

Equifax's online dispute portal, the hackers also accessed other Equifax databases as they searched for other systems containing PII. They eventually found a data repository that also contained unencrypted usernames and passwords that allowed the hackers to access additional Equifax databases. The information accessed primarily included names, Social Security numbers, birth dates, addresses, and, in some instances, driver's license and credit card numbers.

The usernames and passwords the hackers found were saved on a file share by Equifax employees. Equifax told the Subcommittee that it decided to structure its networks this way due to its effort to support efficient business operations rather than security protocols. In addition, Equifax did not have basic tools in place to detect and identify changes to files, a protection which would have generated real-time alerts and detected the unauthorized changes the hackers were making.
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March 08, 2019, 06:14:53 PM

According to this chart, we are much further along in this cycle.


Altcoin Market Cap Trends


https://twitter.com/Beastlyorion/status/1104070434876620800
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March 08, 2019, 06:22:41 PM
Merited by bones261 (1)

ya ya..thats all fine and dandy but I know what you are all really thinking...



1h


3h

#stronghands'19
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