Late, long thoughts - on the 'are we going faster?' subject:
Now, I am not a TA guy, more of an economics nerd with an interest in history and behavioural economics. But I am trying to glean something useful from Bitcoin's unique patterns - and while I am not a chart demon, I have spent a few years watching lines and charts here.
Firstly: Why earlier this year I became convinced about the bottom being in.
I was watching for the January low, which is when (apart from the last two 'ATH in December' years) we seemed to always seem the annual low for most years - usually around the end of the second week of Jan.
One thing I was also watching was the (unfashionable) 3 Day chart (200/50MA)
Here is late
late 2014 to Jan 2015 chart:
Note the MAs 'death cross' and the immediate freefall to the absolute low. About 9 of the 3day candles after the cross.
Then here is the same period
now:
Note the same freefall right after the MA death cross - in a similar time frame - to what I now think is the absolute cycle low (again).
At first I waited for January, expecting the 'real' low might still be in January. Then, when it wasn't lower than 3122, I sought out the 3Day charts and the pattern seemed to make it pretty obvious the bottom was definitely December. The main thing that is noticeable if we are looking at the fractal nature of this is that the 2018 death cross was
earlier (in November) not in December as per 2014.
Secondly: Since then, I have tried plotting ratios for daily price patterns to match historical data (price 'now' vs 2015) starting at comparing from the start point of the two crossover points (in spreadsheets) and then running again comparing from the two January low points etc... but it still didn't really crunch to explain this last push up to over 5K - as Hairy just posted here too. One outlier spike? Perhaps - but I seriously doubt it.
However, this divergence does not mean there is no worth in continuing to measure over time and watching things like how long it is until the MAs cross in the opposite direction back up again (etc.) It was 13 months after the 2014 cross until it pushed up through it again (but that is too long to wait for!)
The 3-day death cross was early. The 5K seems not-to-pattern, too - but I think it is also 'too early to say' and 2015 was a volatile year (as this one is starting to look like it might become).
So what's this long post for?
I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not. The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore. A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it. But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?
That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break... Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.
Thoughts welcome on other things it would be good to factor in. One thing that is obvious is that the traditional 'big gun' TA gurus have been pretty useless in predicting the hike we just had - so some thinking out of the box is surely warranted. They seem to be a tad behind accepting the kind of thinking in here thus far - and only just catching up. It's only now that a few of them are saying cautiously 'the bottom is in', when there was surely at least a case for saying it by the end of January.
In here it's been more optimistic - I think rightly so, too. Of course in 2015, no one was expecting another bubble as spectacular as 2017. Now everyone assumes we 'will' have a even bigger bubble again... as sure as eggs are eggs - and are just arguing about 'when'. I do think we will have one more huge bull run, but how will it play out?
Well, it will maybe rhyme - but it cannot be quite the same. And that's... as sure as honey badger not giving a shit.
DYOR: This is speculation and as always can be dead wrong, but what the hell - ain't no walls to observe any more...
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