Been thinking:
I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games
Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.
Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.
However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that
once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.
What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin? Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it. Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive. Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing. OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly. The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.
Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.
In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.
Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future. I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit. So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more. With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.
What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then. Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again. Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.
So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks. 5K? A risk? What fucking risk!
Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned. Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.
Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating. Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price. And then, well... it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just
makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.
And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.
Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?
Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.
Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it
should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.
So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected?
Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible. Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.
In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.
NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?DYOR.
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