Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Raja_MBZ]

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:

Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?


OTOH, some are REKT:

Lyft breaks below its IPO price ($72), now down over 20% from its opening day high.

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I don't think that we're going to have low volatility in the short term. I've got a feeling that bitcoin is in the mood of making alts super-rekt and getting an increase in overall market dominance, by first dumping again (to somewhat like ~$4400) and then pumping again (to somewhat like ~$5100).

[1714330082]

1714330082

[1714330082]

1714330082

[1714330082]

1714330082

[1714330082]

1714330082

[1714330082]

1714330082

[jbreher]

https://twitter.com/bitfinexed

Does this Twitter handle have any association with realr0ach?

Hmm. No Nazi propaganda? No 'my life sucks because of da jooz'? No 'my life sucks because of da wimmunz'? I think the question answers itself.

[Toxic2040]

Do you think we are on the verge of transitioning from five million unique individuals moderately interested in bitcoin in particular and crypto in general on a day to day basis to fifty million individuals? If so, what time frame would you give such adoption?

I think by the mid 2020's there will be fifty million unique individuals using crypto currencies on a daily basis.

---------

nomnomnomnom..mmmm..cookies good...Cookie Monster LIKE cookies...you have more?
1h


I think we might be attacking this 200 sma line throughout the coming summer before finally breaking above it again.
D


All im sayin is that I believe there is a high probability that we will see above $10k+ within the next 23 months.
M

#stronghands'19  #dyor  #btd's

[sandra_x]

Trading volume has doubled in the last 24 hours (18 billion $) with over 15% growth in bitcoin price .It seem we are finally getting out of the woods. The first signs was a few weeks back,this could well be a confirmation if we able stay afloat. Then everyone will FOMO and the dumb money starts pouring into the market. (The coming 48 hrs should tell us this is not another pump- I am positive this time it is not).

[bitserve]

It is slightly upsetting that I sold a coin and a half yesterday. Still, could as easily have been a loss.

Personally, as I posted yesterday, right before the $5,090 run up, I was thinking that there could be a decent chance for a 30% or more correction from any supra $5k run up (just did not expect such supra $5k price run up to happen in the next month or two, and then it happened in about two hours of my post.. .hahahahaha... go figure?)...

At least you didn't jinx it with your meme. Lucky guy

[jbreher]

I'm working on a theory about last night's breakout. It's not fully-fleshed as of yet, but it has something to do with the incipient release of Derek Smalls' new album.

[ThrobbingSausage]

Though if you really want to take the security and usability hit of using Layer 2, there is always the option of using an exchange.

Not your keys, not your coins. Keeping coins on exchanges is not an argument. What security hit ?

How does SV base layer handle instant payment verification with double spend protection - 1 block per 10 minutes ? Even Bitcoin does not do this, without Lightning.

[Olegya199]

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I like this scenario of development.  
I'm always afraid I won't have time to buy as many Bitcoins as I can while the price is so low.  I am in favor of a smooth rise in the price of Bitcoin, which is useful not only for me, but also for Bitcoin himself.  
Smooth growth = a strong foundation.

[bitserve]

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I do.

It's too soon for FOMO. We need consolidation. That's only achieved with TIME.

[Gyrsur]

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I like this scenario of development.  
I'm always afraid I won't have time to buy as many Bitcoins as I can while the price is so low.  I am in favor of a smooth rise in the price of Bitcoin, which is useful not only for me, but also for Bitcoin himself.  
Smooth growth = a strong foundation.

I think we all want more bitcoin’s mate. If you have 1 or 10,000 you could always have more & will at certain intervals wish you’d bought more when prices were low(er).

Best thing to do is just buy whenever you can because when we see 6 figures per bitcoin every 0.01BTC will have been a great investment

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I know which of those two assets I’d rather have

[JayJuanGee]

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:

Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?

Holy fuck.  Are you trolling me, Raja?  I largely already responded to that issue, and a lot of things change with each leg of our journey.  I am certainly no soothsayer, but merely because something happens, like you predict does not suggest that you are anything but lucky when it happens, especially if it remains a kind of 50/50 event or even 70/30... or something like that.  

I largely outlined my current thinking in my post two posts above this one, which describes some thinking that we are going up before we go down... so one seemingly decent scenario would be to go to the $6k arena first and then have a 30% plus correction, which would bring us to $4,340 (that is if we presume something like $6,200 x 70%), but then there could be a further spike down, or the BTC price might not make it to $6,200 before experiencing a 30% plus correction...  So in such a scenario, bringing BTC prices down to $4,340 could cause additional downwards spiking, and we have seen that many times in bitcoinlandia...  

And even a scenario of a $5,500 local top in this particular cycle and then a 30% plus correction would bring BTC prices below $3,900.... in the $3,850 arena... which are not unreasonable price wave scenarios...  

What are the odds of not going below $3,900 ever again... maybe we are getting close to the 50/50 arena.. perhaps?

 50% would still seem charitable based on current BTC price dynamics, in my thinking... but again, I am never claiming to be any kind of soothsayer, that is for sure.  I just assign what I believe to be conservative probabilities to various events, invest into bitcoin, accumulate bitcoin, prepare for worser scenarios, and then profit the fuck out of my BTC portfolio tending to outperform what I believe to be my largely conservative expectations... life is good.  

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.  

[P_Shep]

They stole our meme!

[Olegya199]

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I like this scenario of development.  
I'm always afraid I won't have time to buy as many Bitcoins as I can while the price is so low.  I am in favor of a smooth rise in the price of Bitcoin, which is useful not only for me, but also for Bitcoin himself.  
Smooth growth = a strong foundation.

I think we all want more bitcoin’s mate. If you have 1 or 10,000 you could always have more & will at certain intervals wish you’d bought more when prices were low(er).

Best thing to do is just buy whenever you can because when we see 6 figures per bitcoin every 0.01BTC will have been a great investment

I always buy Bitcoin for part of my salary.  But I have to say, it's much nicer to do it when I get ~0.7 BTC for that amount, not ~0.25.

[JayJuanGee]

I think we'll retest 3900 in April

Let us retest 5K etc

But I haven't finished accumulating  

then.... buy the DIP....  

If there is one (a dip, that is)... hahahahahaha

fuck the no coiners and the fence sitters.  There were more than 4 months available for them to get their shit straight.

Let's leave their asses behind.. and they can buy in the supra $6k arena.. if they don't continue to remain "undecided and/or leaning bitcoin negative"

[Olegya199]

They stole our meme!

I think they're just gonna have to pay compensation with products now!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

They stole our meme!

I think they're just gonna have to pay compensation with products now!

Yeah JJG will be fuming. He’s got donuts to do!

[bitserve]

I know which of those two assets I’d rather have

I will probably buy a 1Kg bar when I can do it with one BTC because of... "historical" reasons. That's all about it for me.

[JayJuanGee]

next resistance at 5700

Fuck your stupid-ass charts.  I am going to assert (without charts) that the next resistance is in the $6,200 to $6,500 arena (I know it is a broad range, but I can do what I like)... and I believe it will be difficult to get above that without a battle or at least some kind of meaningful correction.. but what the fuck do I know?