Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

t-minus 15 hours and counting

30m


D

#stronghands

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wednesdays are much more manageable dont you agree?      off with their...wait..thats not it..marshal the hordes..yes..thats it.  go heavy.

[JayJuanGee]

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.

I am 16.15BTC away.

I'm a bit more than 16.15 BTC above my number.  You can have some of mine, since you are so nice and sweet.  

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

[...] So let's say, for example, my goal were to reach 21 coins, but I felt that I should acquire 50% above my goal just to be comfortable, which would be 31.5 BTC.  Of course, once I reach the 31.5 BTC, I could reassess my goals, or I can figure out a way to play with that.. and maybe continue to keep 31.5BTC as my goal, but realize that 21BTC would be enough too.. .based on subsequent events and reassessments.

Enough bitcoin does not exist I shamefully learnt over the years. Each time you reach some imaginary goal you then want to aim for the next interesting or round figure. Examples of milestones probably sounding familiar to some:

'1 out of 21 million', 'same amount as decimal places', '1 out of 10 million', 5, 10, 'a 12.5 block', '1 out of a million', 'a 25 block', '1 out of 500k', 'a 50 block', 'stacking blocks of various sizes', '1 out of 100k', '1 out of 10k', '1 out of 1k', 'I save a few extra for family members', ...

I have not learned that, at least not for myself.  Of course, the way a guy assesses the circumstances and the BTC accumulation and maintenance goal(s) is likely to change with the passage of time, but merely the reaching of BTC accumulation and maintenance goals and perhaps the increasing of the goals to allow for cushioning should not cause a forever trajectory to want more and more and more.

Part of the reason that it becomes comfortable to set higher BTC accumulation and maintenance goals would come from the dropping value or at least some of the feelings of uncertainty coming through volatility (namely downward volatility that many of us likely noticed happens from time in bitcoin). 

When the opposite happens, namely bitcoin prices goes shooting up, at some point, there should come a realization that a BTC accumulator/maintainer has largely reached and sufficiently surpassed his/her goals.. and therefore, any extra accumulation becomes icing on the cake rather than some kind of ongoing stressful motivating factor.

Of course, if a guy/gal has some psychological issues, such as never wanting to be out of the ratt race, then of course, the pursuit of more and more and moar is going to continue to place demands on such person(s).

[numismatist]

I used to believe in "3x per year"... but then we crashed to $3122.

Now I put my faith in "2x per year" long-term trend.

Eyeballing that, it looks like we have about 2 yrs to go before we reach a new ATH.

One and a half year seems needed to leave behind a bearish trend, this time has passed like this month. A sideways area stretching a half year would be good for confidence, as in "has built a new floor".

[JayJuanGee]

When in doubt, zoom out #Bitcoin

   

Statistic speaks 

I used to believe in "3x per year"... but then we crashed to $3122.

Now I put my faith in "2x per year" long-term trend.

Personally, I believe that it is a lot easier to make sure that you are happy by bringing down your expectations, and when I started, I was hoping to average at least .06x per year, and of course, I was prepared to average even less than that because of an understanding that I was investing in a very risky and innovative asset class. 

I have never really been disappointed with BTC, even though I have to admit that I got a little bit worried for nearly a year year from about late 2014 to late 2015, even while my returns (value of my holdings) lingered in a negative territory for much longer than a year, and perhaps a bit over two years from early 2014 to mid-2016, which caused me to ponder if the value of my holdings would ever go back above and maintain at least my minimum hope inspired levels of at least .06x per year.

Of course, we know how that story ends, because when BTC prices started going up in late 2015, by the time, we entered into early 2016, the light at the end of the tunnel provided more and more assurances that I was not going to feel like a total idiot and completely underperform my minimum expectations.

Gosh, now, I could raise my expectations, but I don't feel any real need to raise my expectations.... at least .06x per year on average seems to continue to allow a healthy way of projecting my expenses, points at which I feel fuck you status is achieved and a sufficient price cushion to reliably live off of part of the value of the BTC portion of my assets, as needed and upon my personal discretion without feeling pressures. 

One of the ironies of having and maintaining BTC as part of a wealth package has caused a decent amount of reluctance for me to cash out any portion of the BTC part of my total wealth, out of a kind of Gresham's law perspective which channels my behavior into spending the less valuable fiat portions of my wealth first... and even several other members here mentioned that they would be spending their various shitcoins before spending their bitcoins - which also seems to be a prudent and reasonable way forward.

[JayJuanGee]

Jojo:  surely that’s well meant and endearing.

I'm stuck charging her an obsolete rate, can't bring myself to raise it on her, can't quit and have her find someone that will take advantage or rob her...

jojo : sugar daddy  

Hang on, you are the one giving away 16BTC

In theory... hahahahahahaha

Don't I come off as a tease?

We should consider context?  Am I wrong?

[StartupAnalyst]

Nice poster, don't you think it cool?
Now I want a flag like that.

[Neo_Coin]

[StartupAnalyst]

also in the good news department tonight.... 'Stamp got their NYC bitlicense finally.   #bullish




https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitstamp-obtains-bitlicense/

That's very good news, and I'm finally getting warmer in my soul.

[Lambie Slayer]

Something dumpy this way comes. 

Still think we dip down to at least about 4800 in the next week. Bears don't just give up that easy, they are planning something. China Fud failed so far, but they will try something else. Then next week we buy their cheap coins and we moon past 6k with a few giant dildos. 

Next 5 days are critical.

[JayJuanGee]

Something dumpy this way comes.  

Still think we dip down to at least about 4800 in the next week. Bears don't just give up that easy, they are planning something. China Fud failed so far, but they will try something else. Then next week we buy their cheap coins and we moon past 6k with a few giant dildos.  

Next 5 days are critical.

Even though bitcoin might be making its 3rd or 4th attempt at breaking above $5,350 in the coming day(s), there is no real mandate that she goes down before up... at least in this current mini-cycle (aka testing of a possible mini baby bxxx)

[fillippone]

Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price. New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check @kenoshaking's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here.


via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://woobull.com/experiments-on-cumulative-destruction/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Seems intresting.... But gotta hit the HODLtomb, leave it here so i can find it easily tomorrow “or Maybe Some of you gonna give it short”

Woobull always provide good analysis, with a fundamental “insight”. I think plotting AT stuff on those has more value than doing the same on price, where white noise and manipulation can easily trigger unwanted movements.
Studying those to put them into my next monthly analysis.

[bakasabo]

Found the reason why we had red market yesterday

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Internet speeds are irrelevant, as they increase rapidly as data usage increases. The capacity is not even remotely near its maximum (last I checked 100~1000 GBit for consumers were possible but simply not sensible right now), even if you exclude all the satellites that are being launched over the coming years.

Data plans irrelevant as most countries don't have "data plans" for home use and offer unlimited bandwidth instead.

Storage is irrelevant as well. Even 4 TB SSDs only cost a few hundred bucks these days. By the time storage became an issue we'll have 50-100 TB hard drives for a couple hundred dollars.

RAM seems the only sensible bottleneck if your numbers are accurate. $6 per GB currently and I haven't seen RAM size increase as much as other hardware. But that seems to be mostly because of a lack of utility rather than technical implausibility.

I also fail to see how your highway analogy is supposed to hold. Highways are inherently limited by physical space. Hardware inherently works in a different way. If we had arbitrary amounts of space that we could build on economically we'd have no problem with building even a personal lane for every single human in the world. And with hardware we actually do. It takes sometime to develop and scale, but so far there's no end in sight to how much data we can get from any one point on earth to any other.


I have no idea about the implications on mining and centralization though.


As far as a "real game changer" is concerned. That's already Bitcoin. It solves one of humanity's biggest issues. Banks fucking around and screwing the entire population. For a new "real game changer" to appear we would first require a new "real problem".
And Bitcoin hasn't even been around long enough to really get rid of the issues that come with banking, privatized profits, socialized losses, as well as the fiat toilet paper printing press.

It'll probably take a few decades until we can really identify new serious problems and have people give enough of a shit about them for some to try and someone to actually succeed in solving them as well as people actually jumping ship.

yes totally agree with you on your last point....

The highway analogy was not about space to build the highway, but rather it doesn't matter how many lanes are built, it will still eventually get to the same outcome as a 1 lane highway. You will still end up with traffic congestion, nothing has been solved. I was merely trying to associate with the fact bitcoin developers was not concerned with building more lanes, ie increase block size, but focusing on alternate transport methods or alternate transport habits. ie layer 2 scaling.

There also comes to a point where you may never be able to run full node from scratch. Based on a 30sec a 1MB validation time and i have read somewhere that it may be quadratically longer the bigger the block. will try and find the whitepaper on that one, but for arguments sake i used a linear model. You will be validating previous blocks and never catching up.

Just to confirm the 30sec theory, i'd shutdown my Bitcoin Node, was 8 blocks behind, fired it back up and it took about 5mins to catch up 10 blocks, two blocks was found while validating/catching up.

Maybe in developed countries the internet is more reliable, but what about us third world internet countries, like here in Australia! Struggling to even get 100Mbit business internet grade, let alone consumer grade. Typical speeds are more like 10mbit.

BTW 100-1000Gbit Internet available right now? who the fuck is offering that? i want one right now!

Again, your highway analogy only works with restrictive limitations. More highways irl only converge towards congestion because we can't build them indefinitely in an economic manner. If we kept building highways indefinitely, then at some point there would be more lanes than humans and thus no congestion whatsoever, even long before each person gets their own lane.
And again, our bandwidth is not even remotely utilized to its full capacity even when ignoring future changes. Congestion is a non-issue, at least with the issues that you've raised so far. As soon as it became one our bandwidth and data plans would adapt and that's that.

I'm saying 100-1000Gbit are easily possible, probably more by now since I've read about this quite a while ago. There's just no reason to offer those bandwidths when the most a consumer does is stream multiple 4k videos at the same time. See for example this article from 2007: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/12/swedish_woman_has_fastest_internet_connection/

The argument with undeveloped countries (in terms of internet speed) doesn't hold if you argue for decentralization, unless you want the majority of "normal" people to run a node. There are enough people who can easily afford to run nodes and they don't. This won't change even if it's free simply because there's no immediate incentive for anyone to do so. If people acted in the ways necessary for that to work none of us would be using fiat money.


Edit: Not trying to say that there is no problem with big blocks. I don't know enough about the protocol to pass judgement on that front. But the bandwidth and storage issues seem heavily overblown to me and suffering from the same type of linear mindset that keeps people out of Bitcoin and investing in general.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

So:

I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

Now you have. Bookmark it.

Not sure if you're just being confrontational for the sake of it. But my point remains unchanged.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.

I'm sig campaigning my way towards the magic 21,000 BTC figure. See you in 12,500 AD or so.

With some trading this would've actually been feasible at some point in time. Pretty crazy to think about.

[HairyMaclairy]

So:

I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

Now you have. Bookmark it.

Not sure if you're just being confrontational for the sake of it. But my point remains unchanged.

It’s Wednesday my man.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

[JayJuanGee]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

I find it quite surprising that you would not know the significance of 21.

21 = 1/1 million^th of a bitcoin.  

And, a BTC accumulation goal of some peeps.

[HairyMaclairy]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

We don’t talk about big blocks or BCH on Wednesdays.  For reasons. Instead we post pictures of ladies rock climbing.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Trouble in the henhouse. A new way to multiply very large numbers together has been discovered

https://www.sciencealert.com/mathematicians-just-discovered-an-astonishing-new-way-to-multiply-numbers-together

As long as they can't unmultiply them (factor the product)...

Could potentially be used for data compression though, e.g. by just saving the factors and then computing the product on the go. Not sure how much, if anything, it would save though.

Thanks for the post, haven't heard about this in my usual circles yet.

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

We don’t talk about big blocks or BCH on Wednesdays.  For reasons. Instead we post pictures of ladies rock climbing.

Fair enough. Can't find any pictures of rocks climbing girls though so I'll pass with severe disappointment in Google. I thought the future was now, but I guess I was mistaken.