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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 27 (20.5%)
1-10% - 18 (13.6%)
11-20% - 15 (11.4%)
21-30% - 18 (13.6%)
31-40% - 7 (5.3%)
41-50% - 14 (10.6%)
51-60% - 9 (6.8%)
61-70% - 5 (3.8%)
71-80% - 4 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.5%)
91-99% - 3 (2.3%)
100% - 10 (7.6%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21790336 times)
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Lambie Slayer
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April 04, 2019, 07:42:31 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 09:01:25 AM by Lambie Slayer

Been thinking:

I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games Wink

Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.

Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.

However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.

What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin?  Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it.  Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive.  Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing.  OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly.  The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.

Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.

In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.

Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future.  I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit.  So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more.  With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.

What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then.  Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again.  Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.

So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks.  5K? A risk? What fucking risk!

Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned.  Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.

Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating.  Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price.  And then, well...  it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.

And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.

Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?

Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.

Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.

So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected?  

Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible.  Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.

In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.



NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?
DYOR.

Superb comment. It was long but way too good for me to snip out any of it. This good sir is my damn kind of Hopium. Cool So much talk from the Tone Gays and Tyler Jerk offs of the world about the cycles getting longer (the mythical "Longening" as I believe one of our esteemed WO TA experts, Hairy Maclairy, mockingly called it  Cheesy ) What you are describing could be called the "Shortening" and if it happens then bubbles between halvenings would come faster and crypto winters would end quicker, propelling us to awesome heights quicker than many of the biggest bulls imagine. Mcaffee could keep his dick and the 100k party might even be this year.

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I fully support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year. I dont think this is the most likely path, but I believe its just as possible or even more likely than the bears calls of longer cycles and 1100 usd lows. A great counter narrative to that kind of FUD.

For more info on Ayahuasca Hopium (note this stuff is the strongest Hopium known to man and very illegal in many countries)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D727ossAE1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oIAq8FhU78

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqtvuzcL84M&has_verified=1
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Toxic2040
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April 04, 2019, 08:22:13 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), infofront (1)

Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor

#stronghands
Lambie Slayer
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April 04, 2019, 08:49:03 AM

Just for knowing BoB all must be gay-friendly for me or its an absolute NO GO!!!!

Just a "friendly reminder, you don't really "know" bob, just like with any of us.  

You have "met" "his" online persona.   Wink Wink

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Yeah, but like his online being as many in here, but don’t need to point that @me my Real life is under perfect controll with many real life peeps.....

But one can like Some online talkers or not
And i like a few very much ‘they know for sure’

Is so much lovey dovey healthy?  I wonder.

you love your keyboard

Have you even heard about "non-sequitur"?



your just a strange bird, so one has to do strange to be sense-full to you

Huh?

I am normal.  I just post here from time to time.  

Again.. someone seems to be mixing up online persona with real peeps.  

Snap out of it.  Get a grip, mic. 

From "time to time"  Cheesy

Its Thursday, so Ill think Ill drop some truth on you old friend Smiley

You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.

Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even. 
Syke
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April 04, 2019, 08:52:31 AM

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I full support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year.

No wonder this beer is so good!

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April 04, 2019, 08:56:38 AM

Drink beer and feeling good mood relax in the bed looking wall and see BTC Dump/bump Cool
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April 04, 2019, 08:58:47 AM

I missed this earlier this year, but it appears our Russian Economist claiming Russian oligarchs and companies bought 1.8 million BTC this year to avoid sanctions now and down the road, might be the real thing. I notice one rebuttal in the Bitcoinist.com to this guys claim was a quote from a Russian source saying the gov never bought the coins, but as far as I see the economist said it wasnt the Russian gov who bought the coins but oligarchs and corporations.

https://micky.com.au/video-proves-identity-of-russias-mysterious-bitcoin-bull/
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April 04, 2019, 08:59:48 AM

This is the kind of Ayahuasca/DMT Hopium smoked by Shamans in the Amazon and I full support having the 100k party in the Amazon if we make it there this year.

No wonder this beer is so good!



Ill take a keg of that please sir!
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April 04, 2019, 09:06:45 AM

https://micky.com.au/porn-star-reveals-why-cam-girls-love-crypto/

She licks her armpit for Bitcoin. Bullish. 
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April 04, 2019, 09:28:49 AM

Just when you thought he couldn't get any douchier, CSW is now suing people who say he's not Satoshi:

https://cryptoslate.com/craig-wright-filing-lawsuits-against-people-denying-he-is-satoshi-nakamoto/
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April 04, 2019, 09:34:42 AM

No one can find Satoshi anymore, there is no profit by all these plays, It Is only Drama  Wink
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April 04, 2019, 09:35:04 AM

Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor

#stronghands

This chart would suggest price is likely to stay around $4k (=/- 1k) until June 2020.

I would guess that is not a popular view. Most posters would refuse to believe it.
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April 04, 2019, 09:35:48 AM

Just when you thought he couldn't get any douchier, CSW is now suing people who say he's not Satoshi:

https://cryptoslate.com/craig-wright-filing-lawsuits-against-people-denying-he-is-satoshi-nakamoto/

Well that’s not going to end well for him if the defendant appoints a lawyer who is crypto fluent shall we say, to represent them.

Lawyer: Mr Wright, can you prove to me that you are Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of bitcoin? Perhaps sign a message from one of your early addresses!

Faketoshi: I am fucking Satoshi damn it, I don’t have access to those addresses any more.
LFC_Bitcoin
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April 04, 2019, 09:38:08 AM

Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor

#stronghands

This chart would suggest price is likely to stay around $4k (=/- 1k) until June 2020.

I would guess that is not a popular view. Most posters would refuse to believe it.

It’s a possibility?
Who cares any way, gives us more time to keep accumulating. Six figures in 2021/22 any way so the end result is all the same.

To quote JJG ‘Doing donuts in my Lambo, blow & hookers’
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April 04, 2019, 09:39:55 AM

next terget BTCBTC soon trying hit $5800 when next pump. watch and see. Wink

Quote
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April 04, 2019, 09:45:21 AM

Still unanswered: How LN is going to help when Layer 1 is already clogged to the point of uselessness.

We will cross that bridge when we get there.  

If this price pump continues, we could get there next week. Unfortunately, there is no solution on the horizon under discussion.

You are fucking ridiculous on this point, jbreher.  Dumbass BIG BLOCKERS have been acting chicken little on this topic since at least late 2015, and they have been wrong, wrong wrong.. except to the extent to which they have engaged in some spam attacks to attempt to make it look like their wrong chicken little speculations were coming true.

And, get the fuck out of here with your exaggeration that there is no plan in BTC.. because with segwit and other tweaks including lightning network, batching and some other technical mumbo jumbo stuff, BTC transactions are getting processed... and fees also will adjust to help to channel and incentivize transactions too...

so fuck off in your attempting to act like there is neither progress in bitcoin or that there is some kind of supposed emergency situation in bitcoin that justifies a block increase - which is still not necessary, even though you and your dumb BIG blocker buddies keep trying to present such nonsense solutions to increase the block size limits as if they were "obvious solutions," and they are not.. they are just stupid.. and counter to any necessary solution.. you want to break bitcoin like you and your buddies broke your impotent bcash(es) variants?

You claim to be a bitcoiner, but I have to question you with your stubborn continued persistence spouting out such repetitive nonsense that has been debunked over and over and over in the past 3.5 years.  There is no there there.. so focus your lil selfie.   Angry Angry Angry


Once the blocks are full, no additional people can open a LN channel. Nobody can close an LN channel. (Not without out-paying those txs already waiting to be built into a block).

you are speculating about something that has never happened.. Even in December 2017/January 2018 (when your bitmain buddies and Roger Ver had enough money to engage in their spam attack), transactions still went through, as long as higher fees were paid... so if the fees might go up during such clogging periods.   By the way, funny how bitmain is now broke.. ver might not be doing so well.. and maybe still hoping for calvin ayere to keep haning out with you other social pariahs.

Nobody can post evidence of stolen channel funds as a result of counterparty posting an earlier channel state. Nobody can get BTC into or out of exchanges. ...

Let's see how it plays out... sounds like you are making shit up, for the moment.. so let's see if it becomes a BIGGER issue that is does not get resolved... Lots of smart people working and submitting ideas in bitcoin core, so they are likely to continue figuring out a variety of things as they already have been with the passage of time.. And maybe you should be discussing these technical matters in another thread, anyhow?  you fuck with attempts at technical mumbo jumbo, here.

All y'all are hanging your hopes on a promise that has no chance to deliver its stated benefits.

You and your BIG BLOCKER nutjob buddies have already proven yourselves to be inclined towards exaggerations about supposed dire outcomes, and likely going to happen again... with exaggerated points like you are making here.

Sure, LN will have important use cases. But at the cost of crippling the base layer? Collective delusion.

Of course, LN will have important use cases.. at least you recognize that aspect.. and if you think that there some kind of crippling then get the fuck out of here.  Don't use lightning then nor build upon it, and go over to your shitcoin (I mean various bcashes) projects to whine about how horrible bitcoin is, while bitcoin is going to leave those bcashes crappies in the dust in terms of innovations, development, adoption and even ongoing price performance..

Jbreher should be joining his BCHABC - BTC-SV friends at r/btc. He can shit on Segwit/LN and Core dev. 24/7.

He will be loved over there  but here he's  just a moron.
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April 04, 2019, 09:46:36 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 09:59:53 AM by Majormax
Merited by El duderino_ (1)


You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.

Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even.  

Good point.

Being critical of other posters' views is what really informs, but there is a good way and a bad way of putting it.  The real characters of posters can usually be seen 'between the lines', in their style of argument.

Ad hominem attacks reveal true anger or bias.

edit:  However, it is worth remembering that the really critical posters are giving us a lot of information and their conclusions (sometimes useful stuff) without us having to do the agonising analysis !
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April 04, 2019, 09:48:50 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

Weekly Cloud overview. #dyor

#stronghands

This chart would suggest price is likely to stay around $4k (=/- 1k) until June 2020.

I would guess that is not a popular view. Most posters would refuse to believe it.

cause its not something to believe... its a well thought possible outcome 1 of many... It could as easily go parabolic and skyrocket from now or in a few days weeks.... so many plays that are possible....

Only one thing is important, being prepared for every outcome, and accumulate when you can.
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April 04, 2019, 09:55:37 AM

Where’s our pal JJG?

It’s THURSDAY !!!!!

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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April 04, 2019, 10:00:55 AM


You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.

Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even. 

Good point.

Being critical of other posters' views is what really informs, but there is a good way and a bad way of putting it.  The real characters of posters can usually be seen 'between the lines', in their style of argument.

Ad hominem attacks reveal true anger or bias.

Eat my last Sendable M. time to accumulate some cause its almost saturday, and ONE cannot go out for a drink/many drinks and having no Sendable's Roll Eyes

Also I just try to keep polite and nice on this online happening cause being rude just isn't going to help anyone, we are all in the same community and willing to see the best for the same thing "BTC"
So if JJG "a good bitcoiner" but wishes to be the arrogant type thats better than the rest of us than thats something he decides.... (maybe its because his emotional maybe not, but it doesn't keep me awake @night.

I know IRL many may be different than in here, but online I just don't see any point of sh*tting on another that wishes for the same outcome as myself, I know my technical stuff and so more isn't always best and if someone pointing me when i'm wrong, please do so... i'm here to learn, but always good to do so in a proper way ....

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April 04, 2019, 10:02:08 AM

Where’s our pal JJG?

It’s THURSDAY !!!!!

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Thats it then its his day off .... rest day Wink
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