Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[VB1001]

Good job.


A few months ago I asked the members of WO:

How they want statistics, with data or images?

They prefer images

Thank you. I can give you plots (images), but they are boring plots with just 6 datapoints. I need more data to have attractive plots. If I don't have more datapoints, I do not need to draw boring plots.

Don't worry it's an ironic comment.

The story before 2018 is difficult for me, all the data, except the price of Bitcoin, is extracted from the archive org, many data are missing in previous years.

Maybe you or LoyceV have the possibility to scrape the data in another way and get the complete history.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg50843773#msg50843773

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[kurious]

Last night with my babe to celebrate the 10K$ again  

..................

Why you are so embittered with everything ?

I think you really have (or had) problems in your life to act like this.

Don't worry about my "babe" we are together since more than 7years, she owns businesses and earn his life without me.

So don't be stupid, and enjoy the life, basta.

Jealous drivel...  Comme d'habitude.
It hasn't a chance in hell of ever being in a scene like that.

Just ignore it. When you quote it, it gets the horn. It knows everyone who already ignores it can see its putrid stuff and encourages it.

[kurious]

This one's about more FUD from centralized institutions, this time in the UK...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/08/01/bitcoin-has-no-intrinsic-value-as-uk-moves-towards-crypto-ban/#5617b0ad2d27

I guess it's hard to steer a boat when it has centuries worth of inertia. They'll come around eventually of course but I don't think it's going to be a particularly smooth ride for us.

I particularly like this quote:
"Although not a ban, [the U.K.'s FCA warning is] a move in that direction," said Herbert Sim, head of business development from Broctagon Fintech Group. "This lack of enthusiasm is shared by several countries; the U.S. with its scrutiny of libra, and India, who are looking to implement a similar ban on cryptocurrencies which are not state regulated. These movements could end up coming back to bite. The international competition on cryptocurrencies is heating up and there are huge risks in being left behind."

The actual quote in the UK bit merely spoke about some parts of the market being unregulated and beyond the scope of the regulators - and urged caution.

This is consistent with UK gov't stance and nowhere near talking of a 'Bitcoin ban' - the UK has never to my knowledge ever considered banning Bitcoin and government is quite happy to issue tax advice about it and allow pension funds to offer (limited) derivative products based upon crypto - provided risk advice is given.

As you said - FUD indeed!

[tranthidung]

The story before 2018 is difficult for me, all the data, except the price of Bitcoin, is extracted from the archive org, many data are missing in previous years.

Maybe you or LoyceV have the possibility to scrape the data in another way and get the complete history.

I don't have skills to scrap data, LOL.
Anyway, it is good if you can confirm figures are for start or end day of each month. By now, I assumed figures are for first day of months.
Finished (but will edit a bit after receiving your confirmation). Enjoy!

Data source (from @VB1001):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52028093#msg52028093
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52029308#msg52029308

Due to data gaps, I chose to start from Oct. 2017, till Jul. 2019.

• The thread will be updated monthly, with data dump from @VB1001.
• All percent of changes calculated for two continuous months.

Assumptions:
Statistics are for first days of months.

Converted dataset:

Code:

. list id day month2 year date rep repchange views pages btc prep ppages pview pbtc, abb(30)

     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date      rep   repchange      views   pages     btc   prep   ppages   pview     pbtc |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1     1       10   2017   01oct2017   361446           .   19386138   18703    6380      .        .       .        . |
  2. |  2     1       11   2017   01nov2017   368288        6842   19749672   18415    9786   1.89    -1.54    1.88    53.39 |
  3. |  3     1       12   2017   01dec2017   380800       12512   20076512   19041   13186    3.4      3.4    1.65    34.74 |
  4. |  4     1        1   2018   01jan2018   386480        5680   20118498   19325   10138   1.49     1.49     .21   -23.12 |
  5. |  5     1        2   2018   01feb2018   396480       10000   20185277   19825   10629   2.59     2.59     .33     4.84 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6     1        3   2018   01mar2018   402460        5980   20222795   20109    7119   1.51     1.43     .19   -33.02 |
  7. |  7     1        4   2018   01apr2018   407457        4997   20247143   20288    9275   1.24      .89     .12    30.29 |
  8. |  8     1        5   2018   01may2018   410507        3050   20280891   20526    7559    .75     1.17     .17    -18.5 |
  9. |  9     1        6   2018   01jun2018   416730        6223   20315481   20787    6457   1.52     1.27     .17   -14.58 |
 10. | 10     1        7   2018   01jul2018   419443        2713   20341078   20975    7848    .65       .9     .13    21.54 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11     1        8   2018   01aug2018   424622        5179   20413924   21132    6935   1.23      .75     .36   -11.63 |
 12. | 12     1        9   2018   01sep2018   426942        2320   20474102   21288    6633    .55      .74     .29    -4.35 |
 13. | 13     1       10   2018   01oct2018   430939        3997   20650285   21447    6642    .94      .75     .86      .14 |
 14. | 14     1       11   2018   01nov2018   437199        6260   20782977   21810    4015   1.45     1.69     .64   -39.55 |
 15. | 15     1       12   2018   01dec2018   446510        9311   20926425   22296    3800   2.13     2.23     .69    -5.35 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16     1        1   2019   01jan2019   452916        6406   21006158   22563    3459   1.43      1.2     .38    -8.97 |
 17. | 17     1        2   2019   01feb2019   459605        6689   21042628   22974    3901   1.48     1.82     .17    12.78 |
 18. | 18     1        3   2019   01mar2019   465823        6218   21079099   23292    4103   1.35     1.38     .17     5.18 |
 19. | 19     1        4   2019   01apr2019   473225        7402   21133357   23662    5270   1.59     1.59     .26    28.44 |
 20. | 20     1        5   2019   01may2019   480783        7558   21193583   24040    8501    1.6      1.6     .28    61.31 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21     1        6   2019   01jun2019   488192        7409   21256108   24410   11262   1.54     1.54      .3    32.48 |
 22. | 22     1        7   2019   01jul2019   493567        5375   21307690   24679   10052    1.1      1.1     .24   -10.74 |
     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notes on variables:
- rep: total replies
- repchange: change of total replies between two months
- views: total views
- pages: total pages
- btc: BTC price
- prep: percent of change in rep (replies) between two continuous months.
- pview: percent of change in total views (views) between two continuous months.
- ppages: percent of change in total pages (pages) between two continuous months.
- pbtc: percent of change in BTC price (btc) between two continuous months.

Results:
Period of observations (22 months, Oct. 2017 - Jul. 2019)

• Percent of changes of total replies has its min and max at 0.55 and 3.4, on 01 Sep. 2018 and 01 Dec. 2017, respectively.
• Percent of changes of total pages has its min and max at -1.54 and 3.4, on 01 Nov. 2017 and 01 Dec. 2017, respectively.
• Percent of changes of total views has its min and max at 0.12 and 1.88, on 01 Nov. 2017 and 01 Apr. 2018, respectively.
• Percent of changes of BTC price has its min and max at -33.02% and 61.3%, on 01 Mar.2018 and 01 May 2019, respectively.

Plots

[VB1001]

<...>

All data is from the last day of the month, in WO the reference price is Bitstamp.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good evening WO brothers
Bitcoins never disappoints

Observing @ $10,110

5 figure again.

[VB1001]

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

[Globb0]

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

Only the good die young

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

Only the good die young

Haha!
I’m living the high life tonight. A microwavable wrap with a cheap bottle of Prosecco. What you saying to that micgoossens & gallianooo (jokes)

[_javi_]

stamp 3d chart..
MA50 crossed MA200..
golden cross..

it happened once before.. on Feb 2016

just saying 

[d_eddie]

@Pamoldar, @LFC - It seems both of you share my thought. 10k is probably going to be the post in the middle of the battlefield. I don't think we've left the 4 digits behind for good. However, my gut does whisper that by the end of 2019 we'll be off to distant shores.

Of course, we all know where stuff from the gut has to pass... this is strictly SOMA.

[Hueristic]

Good morning WO!
Observing BTC@9695.
Bitcoin is dead!
Bitcoin is dead and wants to kill us!


A catastrphic study by IEA:

Bitcoin energy use - mined the gap

As the price of bitcoin skyrocketed in 2017, attention turned to the cryptocurrency’s energy and environmental footprint. High-profile news articles reported that electricity use of the bitcoin network had equalled that of medium-sized countries and was on track to consume as much electricity as the United States in 2019 and all of the world’s energy by 2020. A widely reported article in Nature Climate Change warned that Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C.

What a load of shit that is, if all the fucking bankers were to stop wasting the worlds resources the temp would probably drop that amount!


btw, i'm way the fuck behind again.

[STT]

Not a great idea to look at a picture of people and presume you know anything accurate nevermind paragraphs of presumption.    Sometimes people say more about themselves then what they are trying to describe.

I get this is probably a joke but he doesnt need to physically send anything in order to have some product given for someone in Europe.   The gold sent in Europe would be a duplicate of whatever Schiff had in hand in USA so why bother in any waste of sending it, its totally fungible.   If I were a rich man with actual tons of gold to my name, I'd likely never go near the stuff nor ever have a need to.
    BTC is superior on this point as its the entire transaction and transmission but I think the conventional methods of paying or ordering will always be there or he could just do it entirely on reputation and say I'll be in Spain next year and settle the bill in person.   I think gold is just a means to settle bills at months end or however long and its a solid inflation adjusting IOU.   Since its a known quantity in of itself its not quite needing that immediate balance adjustment perhaps, especially in mutual trade setups.
    We'll not be going back to needing coins of certain weight and dimension in order to facilitate transmission of value except maybe in the desert somewhere and those places maybe never stopped that method of transaction anyhow.   Modern communication doesn't just belong to crypto, its also a benefit to even FIAT and dollar is digital but its flaws lie in its political bias I think mostly.    If global reserves do fragment, I bet it goes in many directions at once.


I think BTC price is going to test 10,200 and thats regularly been a significant price far more then plain 10k

[JayJuanGee]

tumbleweed.jpg 

Gosh.. never ceases to amaze me how some members can become so damned bored based on a little bit of BTC consolidation.

These are exciting times, no?  We seem to be in the early stages of a baby BTC bull.... I appreciate that lambie gonna get pissed off because I am continuing to co-opt his silly-ass exaggerated expression

[Torque]

A catastrphic study by IEA:

Bitcoin energy use - mined the gap

As the price of bitcoin skyrocketed in 2017, attention turned to the cryptocurrency’s energy and environmental footprint. High-profile news articles reported that electricity use of the bitcoin network had equalled that of medium-sized countries and was on track to consume as much electricity as the United States in 2019 and all of the world’s energy by 2020. A widely reported article in Nature Climate Change warned that Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C.

By 2024, the heat from bitcoin mining would cause the planet's crust to crispen and catch fire, ending all life forms in complete heat death. By 2026, the earth's heat would be so hot that the planet would likely implode and supernova, creating the galaxy's first twin sun solar system born of the artificial negligence and hubris of mankind. Bitcoin will kill us all...very soon.

Tsk tsk...these journalists these days, just can't be bothered to do the extra research and correct their articles. There, fixed it for them.

[Lambie Slayer]

This one's about more FUD from centralized institutions, this time in the UK...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/08/01/bitcoin-has-no-intrinsic-value-as-uk-moves-towards-crypto-ban/#5617b0ad2d27

I guess it's hard to steer a boat when it has centuries worth of inertia. They'll come around eventually of course but I don't think it's going to be a particularly smooth ride for us.

I particularly like this quote:
"Although not a ban, [the U.K.'s FCA warning is] a move in that direction," said Herbert Sim, head of business development from Broctagon Fintech Group. "This lack of enthusiasm is shared by several countries; the U.S. with its scrutiny of libra, and India, who are looking to implement a similar ban on cryptocurrencies which are not state regulated. These movements could end up coming back to bite. The international competition on cryptocurrencies is heating up and there are huge risks in being left behind."

The actual quote in the UK bit merely spoke about some parts of the market being unregulated and beyond the scope of the regulators - and urged caution.

This is consistent with UK gov't stance and nowhere near talking of a 'Bitcoin ban' - the UK has never to my knowledge ever considered banning Bitcoin and government is quite happy to issue tax advice about it and allow pension funds to offer (limited) derivative products based upon crypto - provided risk advice is given.

As you said - FUD indeed!

Billy Bambrough constantly engages in shameless FUD by writing clickbait articles trying to mislead readers that crypto is doomed. This is par for the course for him.

[JayJuanGee]

Not really sure why $10,000 is acting like hot coals. It’s not a magic fucking pot of gold, why are people treating it as so?

HODL !

We have always had various price sticking points in BTC...   ask Torque.


Doesn't seem unusually to me that the price sticking points are going to occur at various round numbers, even though some people are going to argue until they are blue in the face that there is some kind of manipulation or conspiracy... which seems like a decent amount of bullshit, even though if some one wants to attempt to manipulate, it is likely going to be a bit easier to attempt such manipulations and to attempt to take advantage of a pre-existing condition for as long as they are able to accomplish such.. and the longer the are successful in manipulating the price in such sticking point, then the more violent becomes the potential of the break out.  

Maybe, if we really are connoisseurs of violence, we will get "lucky" and have the BTC price maintained in the $10k arena for two more years... ?    


Edit:

A catastrphic study by IEA:

Bitcoin energy use - mined the gap

As the price of bitcoin skyrocketed in 2017, attention turned to the cryptocurrency’s energy and environmental footprint. High-profile news articles reported that electricity use of the bitcoin network had equalled that of medium-sized countries and was on track to consume as much electricity as the United States in 2019 and all of the world’s energy by 2020. A widely reported article in Nature Climate Change warned that Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C.

By 2024, the heat from bitcoin mining would cause the planet's crust to crispen and catch fire, ending all life forms in complete heat death. By 2026, the earth's heat would be so hot that the planet would likely implode and supernova, creating the galaxy's first twin sun solar system born of the artificial negligence and hubris of mankind. Bitcoin will kill us all...very soon.

Tsk tsk...these journalists these days, just can't be bothered to do the extra research and correct their articles. There, fixed it for them.

hahahahahahaha
Speaking of the devil... I swear that I did not time the gratuitous mention in my above post to be coordinated with Torque's posting of various conspiracies.... hahahahhahahaha    

[Torque]

We have always had various price sticking points in BTC...   ask Torque.

$9999.99999999 FTW 

[Hueristic]

A catastrphic study by IEA:

Bitcoin energy use - mined the gap

As the price of bitcoin skyrocketed in 2017, attention turned to the cryptocurrency’s energy and environmental footprint. High-profile news articles reported that electricity use of the bitcoin network had equalled that of medium-sized countries and was on track to consume as much electricity as the United States in 2019 and all of the world’s energy by 2020. A widely reported article in Nature Climate Change warned that Bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C.

By 2024, the heat from bitcoin mining would cause the planet's crust to crispen and catch fire, ending all life forms in complete heat death. By 2026, the earth's heat would be so hot that the planet would likely implode and supernova, creating the galaxy's first twin sun solar system born of the artificial negligence and hubris of mankind. Bitcoin will kill us all...very soon.

Tsk tsk...these journalists these days, just can't be bothered to do the extra research and correct their articles. There, fixed it for them.

hahahahahahaha
Speaking of the devil... I swear that I did not time the gratuitous mention in my above post to be coordinated with Torque's posting of various conspiracies.... hahahahhahahaha   

W00ps, gotta start reading backwards from here now.