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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26363369 times)
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Biodom
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August 16, 2019, 08:33:43 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
As far as reset itself is concerned, the question is how it might happen and would it affect those pernicious negative rates?

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August 16, 2019, 08:43:37 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
As far as reset itself is concerned, the question is how it might happen and would it affect those pernicious negative rates?



Nothing a world war wouldn't solve.

Kill a few hundred millions of people and watch how high interest rates will go.

This looks like sarcasm to you probably but it isn't. This ends only one way. War.
jbreher
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August 16, 2019, 08:45:12 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...

r0ach certainly spews a lot of shit. However, I can agree with him on one point. I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.
Lambie Slayer
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August 16, 2019, 08:46:16 PM

Bad news.

After yesterday's green everything is awesome candle, we got the red candle again, at least for now. Looks like it is going to test that 9.2-9.3k.


I'll buy some serious amounts if this goes below $8k. and I don't mean small potatoes like $100.

Any post starting with "bad news" smells like FUD to me. Recently both mindrust and lambie are posting their predictions based on nothing (I recall a better expression, but I don't want to be rude because I really liked these guys at first). It looks like they are trying to influence the others with their repetetive 4900 resp. 7000-8000 claims. Guys, you are very new to the Bitcoin world. The market punished you for 6 months, now you are hoping to catch back what was missed. It is better to be honest and not lie to us. Learn your lessons, invest regularly and don't try to cheat the market, it will bite you. Leave the trade and FUD trolling to the pro's.  Don't go to the dark side!  Grin

By the end of 2014 I had sold all other investments and after setting aside a large chunk for cap gains taxes I was 100 percent in Bitcoin.


Cool story and time-wise very similar to mine, albeit I did not liquidate all fiat: left retirement portfolio intact (mainly due to penalties), but decreased my regular brokerage accounts 80% (at the time) since I did not want to borrow money.
You have to sell fiat to buy corn, right?
I don't think poorly of short term (or even long term) bears as long as their opinion is rational, like yours.
Hopefully, long term is up, but fluctuations are to be expected.
Stock market, on the other hand, is behaving in bipolar fashion.
I am mostly out into short term bonds (before the rate cut as I was expecting a plunge) since I can handle just one asset class with super high volatility, not two or three.

Nice to hear your story as well. I wonder if you had the same feeling I had in 14. I would sit back sometimes in surreal awe at how magic internet money had caused me to make such extreme financial moves and dominate many of my waking and sleeping thoughts.
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August 16, 2019, 09:00:22 PM

19 degrees and at my GF parents house.... jumping in their swimming pond, NUTS freezing as we speak Roll Eyes

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August 16, 2019, 09:03:25 PM

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

Well I guess I can unignore JJG now
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August 16, 2019, 09:14:05 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...
I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.


Agree again, since they (CB) got lots of gold, and no bitcoin.
However, I subscribe to Jim Rogers notion that when stocks would get smashed, gold would decline as well (temporarily), albeit it could rally 10% more first.
Eventually, SDRs would probably be based on precious metal basket (or just gold) plus, hopefully, bitcoin (once CB get some).
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August 16, 2019, 09:16:52 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...
I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.


Agree again, since they (CB) got lots of gold, and no bitcoin.
However, I subscribe to Jim Rogers notion that when stocks would get smashed, gold would decline as well (temporarily), albeit it could rally 10% more first.
Eventually, SDRs would probably be based on precious metal basket (or just gold) plus, hopefully, bitcoin (once CB get some).

Methinks that your vision of 'monetary armageddon' is considerably tamer than is mine.
Biodom
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August 16, 2019, 09:19:00 PM

Bad news.

After yesterday's green everything is awesome candle, we got the red candle again, at least for now. Looks like it is going to test that 9.2-9.3k.


I'll buy some serious amounts if this goes below $8k. and I don't mean small potatoes like $100.

Any post starting with "bad news" smells like FUD to me. Recently both mindrust and lambie are posting their predictions based on nothing (I recall a better expression, but I don't want to be rude because I really liked these guys at first). It looks like they are trying to influence the others with their repetetive 4900 resp. 7000-8000 claims. Guys, you are very new to the Bitcoin world. The market punished you for 6 months, now you are hoping to catch back what was missed. It is better to be honest and not lie to us. Learn your lessons, invest regularly and don't try to cheat the market, it will bite you. Leave the trade and FUD trolling to the pro's.  Don't go to the dark side!  Grin

By the end of 2014 I had sold all other investments and after setting aside a large chunk for cap gains taxes I was 100 percent in Bitcoin.


Cool story and time-wise very similar to mine, albeit I did not liquidate all fiat: left retirement portfolio intact (mainly due to penalties), but decreased my regular brokerage accounts 80% (at the time) since I did not want to borrow money.
You have to sell fiat to buy corn, right?
I don't think poorly of short term (or even long term) bears as long as their opinion is rational, like yours.
Hopefully, long term is up, but fluctuations are to be expected.
Stock market, on the other hand, is behaving in bipolar fashion.
I am mostly out into short term bonds (before the rate cut as I was expecting a plunge) since I can handle just one asset class with super high volatility, not two or three.

I wonder if you had the same feeling I had in 14.

Most likely. Call it a love at first sight or being hit by lightning or dumbstruck.
That was almost all I could think about for a while (lasting a pretty long time, for me).
Maybe bitcoin is some kind of a social/mind virus?
HairyMaclairy
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August 16, 2019, 09:56:54 PM

Next poll:

What do you think about more:

*Sex

*Bitcoin
gentlemand
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August 16, 2019, 10:06:41 PM

Next poll:

What do you think about more:

*Sex

*Bitcoin

I don't do sex any more because it's silly. I do remember getting pretty bored of it during the act at certain points and started thinking about railway timetables to pass the time.

If Bitcoin's iron grip on my mind was replicated in my wanking technique my poor johnson would look like one of these -

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August 16, 2019, 10:14:51 PM

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.


Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

Yeah, Bob chill out man. You’ve been through a couple of bitcoin cycles now so you know what to expect. I’m the same, I panic sometimes but look at the bigger picture. You’re already independently wealthy, I can promise you that you’ll be a lot richer at the end of 2021. Everything before then is just noise. The halvening will do what it always does - Limit the supply & with increased demand comes higher prices.

Moon by the end of 2021!

Smile!

But keep in mind that traders, miners and holders are differents categories. Each one have his own goals.
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August 16, 2019, 10:27:47 PM

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)

That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

The future when you were in the past is always ... you can't predict these things with any accuracy. You could make a very good educated guess, but the saying is "hindsight is 20/20" ... or is that 2020 (next year?).

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

I mean, I bought corn at maybe $25 and sold them at $50. I bought litecorns at $10 and sold them at $20. I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.
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August 16, 2019, 10:28:46 PM

I guess you're in France (CAC40).  I'm in Lyon right now, will be in Paris in about a week, spend a few days there and then fly back to the U.S.

Are you on vacation ?
In recent years I've been spending as much time overseas as I do in 'Murikka.  It's starting to feel like work.
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August 16, 2019, 10:30:17 PM

Next poll:

What do you think about more:

*Sex

*Bitcoin

I don't do sex any more because it's silly. I do remember getting pretty bored of it during the act at certain points and started thinking about railway timetables to pass the time.

If Bitcoin's iron grip on my mind was replicated in my wanking technique my poor johnson would look like one of these -



Those look distinctly like psilocybin.  Your dick will will only be likely to look like them if you have been ingesting them!
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August 16, 2019, 10:30:56 PM

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.
I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.


I don't do sex any more because it's silly. I do remember getting pretty bored of it during the act at certain points and started thinking about railway timetables to pass the time.

If Bitcoin's iron grip on my mind was replicated in my wanking technique my poor johnson would look like one of these -



Wait, you mean my willy isn't supposed to look like that?  Oh man...
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August 16, 2019, 10:32:45 PM

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

Well I guess I can unignore JJG now

Steady there: catching up on pages goes much slower if things get normal again and you don't have JJG and r0ach on ignore....
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August 16, 2019, 10:34:45 PM

The future when you were in the past is always ... you can't predict these things with any accuracy. You could make a very good educated guess, but the saying is "hindsight is 20/20" ... or is that 2020 (next year?).

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

I mean, I bought corn at maybe $25 and sold them at $50. I bought litecorns at $10 and sold them at $20. I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

All depends on what that bloke's buy in was. If I'd sold in 2015 I would've been at a significant loss. If I'd bought at 10c I may well have gotten bored of having my life on hold and gone for it knowing perfectly well the price would be higher in future. It gets to a point where progressing rather than waiting is worth missing out on gains you don't really need.

Then again since he bought again he's clearly not done yet.
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August 16, 2019, 10:35:11 PM

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.
I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.

Is that a euphemism?   If not, it ought to be...

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August 16, 2019, 10:40:11 PM

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)

That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

an interesting observation, actually.

maybe we can surmise that it is unlikely that one's financial situation can be significantly (and long term) improved by shrewd investments if only for a fact that we are all feeble humans who buy too late and/or sell too early.

The likelihood of a particular person making 1000X their investment within, say, five years and not losing it within the next five is probably close to zero.
It is very unlikely to happen.

Aiming at 10x within 10 years and not losing the bulk later is probably the most one can do.
Granted, OGs and anybody buying the bulk before $1000 got more, but the game is not over yet.
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