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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26356841 times)
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Ludwig Von
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August 14, 2019, 11:07:52 PM

HM, it looks like short term massive decline in bond's yield is cratering the stock market which, in turn, is affecting btc (negatively).
Gold/silver are outperforming, but probably not for too long (short term).
SP500 at 2150-2350 by October? BTW, SP500 is now marginally negative on a 1 year chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/EsLWA86X-SPX-Top-Date-Coming-2-Sentiment-Low-Free-Market-Timing-Video/

TL;DR If SP500 crashes, bitcoin will go down with it. Then, hopefully, a re-bounce.

I don 't like when BTC follows S&P. Neither if gold follows S&P. It would mean we also run on QE fuel. It should be inverse to S&P... .
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HairyMaclairy
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August 14, 2019, 11:12:09 PM

HM, it looks like short term massive decline in bond's yield is cratering the stock market which, in turn, is affecting btc (negatively).
Gold/silver are outperforming, but probably not for too long (short term).
SP500 at 2150-2350 by October? BTW, SP500 is now marginally negative on a 1 year chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/EsLWA86X-SPX-Top-Date-Coming-2-Sentiment-Low-Free-Market-Timing-Video/

TL;DR If SP500 crashes, bitcoin will go down with it. Then, hopefully, a re-bounce.

I understand what you are saying but I don’t agree that Bitcoin and SP500 are correlated.  People keep looking to the news to explain Bitcoin price movements, but this is the wrong approach. Bitcoin gives no fucks about trade wars.

We are just going through our usual summer shakes before autumn bull season starts. 
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August 14, 2019, 11:32:53 PM

Man, they are dumping..
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August 14, 2019, 11:52:52 PM

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161686134314848256

this thread is abt the on-going sells off made by PLUS Token, the biggest Chinese PONZI which scammed ~70K $BTC + ~ 800K $ETH



Ponzi Boyz gonna ponzi, hodlers not affected. Leverage Boyz, be careful out there, could get nasty.

i PeRsoNalLy tHiNk PluS tOkeN iS tHe fuTurE bEcauSe ThE 3hird bOy loOks like VitaLik... bTc is oLD techNoloGy, nOt the FutUre.

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August 15, 2019, 12:00:40 AM

4 digits on stamp and pro.   Sad
STT
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August 15, 2019, 12:17:27 AM

Quote
I don 't like when BTC follows S&P. Neither if gold follows S&P. It would mean we also run on QE fuel. It should be inverse to S&P... .

Dollar value relative to other FIAT has been going up since start of 2018.   So BTC already did well to recover even when QE is ongoing and they are already dropping rates again.    I think political incidences do matter to the usage for BTC in various countries far removed from any open banking system.  Theres quite a few assets which are used instead of conventional currency because the system is so screwed up by accident from inflation and on purpose from restricted access to free capital movements, etc.

Its reasonable to expect 9300 area again and I think there is a larger picture to deal with on price direction, at best its sideways with fights ahead.
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August 15, 2019, 12:34:11 AM

I knew it does not relate to Bitcoin, as always, because CW is an assh*let. But it is fact that we had dumps, partially from that. Damn it.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmessage-developer-craig-wright-faked-documents-on-bitcoin-creation
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Per a court document released on Aug. 13, Warren testified in the course of an ongoing lawsuit against Wright filed by the estate of David Kleiman, who was a cyber-security expert, whom many believe to have been one of the first developers behind Bitcoin (BTC) and blockchain technology.
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August 15, 2019, 12:59:04 AM

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

The universe has been expanding for some time now.  Based on the historic trend line, it is likely to keep expanding.  It might even accelerate.

You may be waiting a wee while longer for universal Armageddon. 

What the hell does the universe have to do with a balloon? Nothing.
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August 15, 2019, 01:50:37 AM

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161686134314848256

this thread is abt the on-going sells off made by PLUS Token, the biggest Chinese PONZI which scammed ~70K $BTC + ~ 800K $ETH



Ponzi Boyz gonna ponzi, hodlers not affected. Leverage Boyz, be careful out there, could get nasty.

i PeRsoNalLy tHiNk PluS tOkeN iS tHe fuTurE bEcauSe ThE 3hird bOy loOks like VitaLik... bTc is oLD techNoloGy, nOt the FutUre.



if this is true, why are we still hanging above 10k if they can sell so many bitcoins. What would be the price of bitcoin if they sold 200k bitcoins this week or this month?
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August 15, 2019, 02:10:05 AM

So what holds value as a contra-asset in recessions these days? First person to say Gold gets spit on; I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore....
Searing
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August 15, 2019, 02:39:17 AM

So what holds value as a contra-asset in recessions these days? First person to say Gold gets spit on; I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore...

I talked to my brother who is an Edward Jones Financial advisor. Told him 5 months ago I wanted to 'take some off the top' on my traditional investments to fix up my house.

(siding/windows/misl)

I just told him I'm old enough to remember like 5 recessions. A regular recession is a 20% correction. I expect (IMHO this year) a 40% correction for various social and political

reasons. In that it takes an average of 7-10 years or more to recover from a recession, I figured it was a good hedge.

He agreed, which told me 5 months ago, we were probably going to see this happen.

So from my point of view as a hedge, if I'm wrong and we have a soft bounce and/or sideways with traditional investments and such, my now fixed up house goes up in value.

ie hedge

If I am correct and expect a recession my house has trimmed off some $$ otherwise lost in the recession and likely increase in interest rates and other events means..yep, my house

goes up in value.

ie hedge

Anyway, how I figured it.

Then the last hedge is the BTC and Crypto Hodl Hoard, in case everything really goes to hell. Also, of course, have NO DEBT.

So from a 'coping mechanism' point of view on economy/politics/etc out of my control, it seems to be all covered.

Any other hedging from economic calamity will require a bunker being dug and me learning how to can food. (a step too far IMHO)

So bring it on World.

Bitcoin HODL has made me 'brave as f*ck'

later

Brad
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August 15, 2019, 02:52:53 AM



Well, if he reversed the tax cuts under Trump and the Corporations and did the above. It would likely be a 'wash' and maybe a net gain, in that those individual folk would

probably blow that money. If that is how the economy is gonna work from now on, printing money to give it to the very rich or the common folk, I'd give it to the common

folk to spend it vs the very rich. Not sure anything for fiscal policy makes any sense in either direction.

brad


Good point.

It is not as if they haven't been dumping helicopter money for years, it's just that it all goes to their fat cat buddies.  Where did the '08 trillion go?
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August 15, 2019, 02:55:43 AM

Lambie

That is excellent high quality FUD.  Would panic sell again.  AAAA+

Hairy

lol
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August 15, 2019, 03:13:23 AM

I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore....

The picture was more complex:
1. First, gold rallied 30% from October 2007 to Bear demise (3/2008) while SP500 declined 13%.
2. Then, between Bear and Lehman (or its immediate aftermath), gold declined 35% (from peak) and SP500 declined another 28% (for a total of 41% at the indicated time).
3. Therefore, counting from October 2007, gold was down only 5%, but SP500 was down 41%.
4. From that point, until July 2011, Gold rallied 140% while SP500 only 36%.

Perhaps, you only noticed the period between Bear and Lehman.

A very similar situation is occuring now: gold is rallying, SP500 stalling and declining.

Prediction: If we are going into a serious decline, gold might rally for, maybe, another 10% and then will get smashed with everything else.

TL;DR My take is that IF stock market would decline sharply, then btc would get dragged down as well, at least initially.
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August 15, 2019, 03:26:45 AM

the DOW went down 800 points  Shocked

We are suddenly correlating, which is a bummer, but could be attributed to Coinbase/Barclays conundrum.




It’s just the late summer shakes. Not related to news.

I got the shakes after coming down from a wild night at Cavo paradiso with dJ snake... those 3 liter bottles of vodka

Ok yea anyway this may be the last shot at acquiring <10k Btc
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August 15, 2019, 03:32:02 AM

I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore....

The picture was more complex:
1. First, gold rallied 30% from October 2007 to Bear demise (3/2008) while SP500 declined 13%.
2. Then, between Bear and Lehman (or its immediate aftermath), gold declined 35% (from peak) and SP500 declined another 28% (for a total of 41% at the indicated time).
3. Therefore, counting from October 2007, gold was down only 5%, but SP500 was down 41%.
4. From that point, until July 2011, Gold rallied 140% while SP500 only 36%.

Perhaps, you only noticed the period between Bear and Lehman.

A very similar situation is occuring now: gold is rallying, SP500 stalling and declining.

Prediction: If we are going into a serious decline, gold might rally for, maybe, another 10% and then will get smashed with everything else.

TL;DR My take is that IF stock market would decline sharply, then btc would get dragged down as well, at least initially.


The decline in asset class like gold was simply due to the liquidity being sucked out of the system. And then yea the rocket ship. So in that context Btc would dip and then rocket.

However the context now is different. Yea maybe long drawn out recession could stifle Btc value but just need one major currency taking a fresh dump for the fear to kick in and the money will start flowing. But I guess we will find out if Btc is meant to rock this world then we will be in safe hands. If not well I hope my marijuana industry stocks pump from all the weed smoking that will happen as people lose it
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August 15, 2019, 03:32:44 AM

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161686134314848256

this thread is abt the on-going sells off made by PLUS Token, the biggest Chinese PONZI which scammed ~70K $BTC + ~ 800K $ETH



Ponzi Boyz gonna ponzi, hodlers not affected. Leverage Boyz, be careful out there, could get nasty.

i PeRsoNalLy tHiNk PluS tOkeN iS tHe fuTurE bEcauSe ThE 3hird bOy loOks like VitaLik... bTc is oLD techNoloGy, nOt the FutUre.



I would smash Yuan Yuan
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August 15, 2019, 03:32:49 AM

I talked to my brother who is an Edward Jones Financial advisor. Told him 5 months ago I wanted to 'take some off the top' on my traditional investments to fix up my house.

...

Then the last hedge is the BTC and Crypto Hodl Hoard, in case everything really goes to hell. Also, of course, have NO DEBT.

So from a 'coping mechanism' point of view on economy/politics/etc out of my control, it seems to be all covered.

Any other hedging from economic calamity will require a bunker being dug and me learning how to can food. (a step too far IMHO)

So bring it on World.

Bitcoin HODL has made me 'brave as f*ck'
Ok. I tend to run along the lines that one should always have assets that can be drawn down for expenses in any situation. When times are great, sell some stocks to pay for things. When times are bad, sell some gold. And when times are really bad... well the technical experience on safe cracking can probably be put to use rescuing things from locked safes (happens).

What annoyed me about 2008 was that ALL asset classes were collapsing. Even as I mentioned Gold, which was dropping through the 700's. Fortunately I had some cash around so I just drew on that till shit got less crazy. Debt most of all, I remember people saying you should just have a big HELOC as your "cash reserve". Those got locked out really quickly, people who depended on that got fucked.

Bitcoin seems to move in tandem with the market, which is odd as people are looking for places to hold their cash because cash is going to be worth shit with heavy inflation around the corner (go ahead, print money). Bitcoin is pretty immune to that problem. We shall see.

It's that time in the cycle to say "place your bets kids". Annoying we have to go through this shit, but that's what happens when your money is manipulated by idiots....
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August 15, 2019, 03:37:37 AM

The picture was more complex:
1. First, gold rallied 30% from October 2007 to Bear demise (3/2008) while SP500 declined 13%.
2. Then, between Bear and Lehman (or its immediate aftermath), gold declined 35% (from peak) and SP500 declined another 28% (for a total of 41% at the indicated time).
3. Therefore, counting from October 2007, gold was down only 5%, but SP500 was down 41%.
4. From that point, until July 2011, Gold rallied 140% while SP500 only 36%.

Perhaps, you only noticed the period between Bear and Lehman.

A very similar situation is occuring now: gold is rallying, SP500 stalling and declining.

Prediction: If we are going into a serious decline, gold might rally for, maybe, another 10% and then will get smashed with everything else.

TL;DR My take is that IF stock market would decline sharply, then btc would get dragged down as well, at least initially.

That was it.  When Bear imploded things really went weird for a bit. And yes having some gold and silver was nice, it was tangible and gave me some confidence. Which is why I didn't panic sell the stocks and instead bought a fair bit at a discount with the cash. Which did well.

And 2008 was a big part of the reason why I liked bitcoin so much in the beginning....

Answer might be sell gold now (and take the cap gain hits) and have cash at the ready for the big fire sales. Question is will bitcoin be on sale, or will it be the thing everyone is begging to have?
lightfoot
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August 15, 2019, 03:41:50 AM

It is not as if they haven't been dumping helicopter money for years, it's just that it all goes to their fat cat buddies.  Where did the '08 trillion go?
That money filled the big M3 gloryhole that appeared in 2008 as all the CDO "money" evaporated like the fake dust it was. Despite being fake it was still money and the loss was shaping up to be a massive deflationary spiral. Which might not have been "bad"...

This last cut just went into bank accounts. Wasted.
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