Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kingcolex]

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

Feeling so "poor" and desperate during these trying times, with a kind of gnawing realization that the no coiners, fence sitters, jonoiv, roach and lambie were correct.   

Jonoiv was a sad one to see, he so quickly turned the corner from this is a fun thing to being R0aches partner in crime and this is all a big ole scam and the boogie men are out to get our moniez.

[1642549591]

1642549591

[1642549591]

1642549591

[1642549591]

1642549591

[1642549591]

1642549591

[1642549591]

1642549591

[JayJuanGee]

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

If you look at previous halvenings, you will see that there is a small bump up in price before the halvening, and a BIGGER rise that tends to come more than 6 months after the halvening.  Of course, we only have two previous cases, so it really is not a good sample size, and there are some schools of thought that this time around might have a bit more of a front-running, meaning that the price boom would come earlier than it did last time.  We should be taking all of those theories with a decently sized grain of salt because momentum is a factor of many events of human behavior so we cannot really know too well, ahead of time, with any kind of precision when the momentum is no longer going to be enough to keep the price going up or if the buying support is able to keep up with the speed of the price rise, that will sometimes grow to out of control levels.. We saw a mini-version of that in June, especially the end of June.. holy fuck..

Observing $10,101.

I hope bitcoin doesn’t get a nose bleed at the thought of going north of $10,000 & dive below again.

Activity in the WO lately -

Only the poor remain.

Feeling so "poor" and desperate during these trying times, with a kind of gnawing realization that the no coiners, fence sitters, jonoiv, roach and lambie were correct.   

Jonoiv was a sad one to see, he so quickly turned the corner from this is a fun thing to being R0aches partner in crime and this is all a big ole scam and the boogie men are out to get our moniez.

Even though I had been razzing the fuck out of jonoiv, mostly because of his ongoing arrogance, there is a part of me that feels a bit sorry for those types of gamblers who sold too much too soon and they are just waiting, waiting and waiting for their trade to play out.. which we know may or may not happen.  Bitcoin's exponential growth curve might not allow another revisit of sub $6k prices, so it can be a bit sad for those people who sold all of their coins and they are experiencing a decent amount of stress about whether they should continue to wait or if they should just suck up the loss, at some seemingly reasonable point.

Even though I feel a bit sorry for jonoiv, I still have trouble considering him as a kind of good guy that turned the corner.  He had always been quite bearish and a bit much of a gambler in those bearish directions and lack of hedging towards the possible upside... so in some sense, it can also feel good to see that kind of arrogance and lack of hedging to be punished by the realities of the exponential s-curve adoption, which seems to be quite a powerful phenomenon in bitcoin that nocoiners, fence sitters and shorters seem unable to properly appreciate and to properly hedge for the possible upside

[HI-TEC99]

This is impressive.
I mean: what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

This.

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

We were at three digits before the last one. This time we are at five digits. If we can reach six digits after the next one I'll be happy.

[kingcolex]

This is impressive.
I mean: what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

This.

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

We were at three digits before the last one. This time we are at five digits. If we can reach six digits after the next one I'll be happy.

They were big bumps but not that kind of bumps, I could see 40-50k, 100k seems really too out of reach for this halvening.

[Biodom]

Last time we went from roughly $1K to $20k.
I would say that $50K is a minimal expectation IF the cycles continue the up down pattern, which is always an unknown.
I would not be surprised by $200K, but would not plan for it as far as seriously laying out what to do if and when.

[jbreher]

just like jbreher currently flies of the government agent rails for certain kinds of references in that direction

....  I think that, for the moment, I have bit off enough personal bashenings in the ad hominem direction. 

Haha. You think?

Go Fuck Yourself, JJG.

[BTC_ISTANBUL]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

[JayJuanGee]

just like jbreher currently flies of the government agent rails for certain kinds of references in that direction

....  I think that, for the moment, I have bit off enough personal bashenings in the ad hominem direction. 

Haha. You think?

Go Fuck Yourself, JJG.

Your coy response is not really providing any kind of meaningful discussion point, so this would be a good time for a commercial break.     Regularly scheduled programming will return at some currently unspecified time, in the meantime, how's your laddering going?

I would like to say that my decision from nearly two weeks ago to incorporate some buying of some extra BTC by cancelling a few of my sub-$4k scheduled laddered buys and incorporating that freed up fiat into my buy ladders had pretty much filled more than my anticipated number of buy orders between  $10,400-ish and $9,200-ish.  Otherwise, I probably would have had fewer buy orders between $10k-ish and $9,200-ish (I had about 7 buy orders fill as opposed to would have had around 5 buy orders).

Of course, I likely bought more bitcoin than I had anticipated and even at higher prices than necessary in the supra $10k arena, but I am still happy with the whole situation, largely because of such extra BTC accumulation (and I did not market buy the BTC at $11k as the BTC price was on Saturday, July 20, the time of the supposed buy campaign), I have therefore been able to subsequently increase my BTC sell quantities too to give me greater sell amounts, but at the same time retaining more BTC, overall.

The theory has not completely played out since, as we recognize, the BTC price has not returned to going up beyond just in small quantities that has so far triggered a couple of my smaller sell orders in the upper $9ks and in the $10,500 arena.

I wonder if you, jbreher, might still be playing with much tighter BTC laddering ranges than me, perhaps?  Maybe even you have spread your increments out a bit larger as compared to what you had been doing in early 2018, no?   

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I'm sure that a lot of BTC HODLers are trembling in their boots upon reading such news, just like I am from the confidence that you inspire, BTC_ISTANBUL.

In other words, seems like another soothsaying doomsday sorcerer is on the scene predicting "down before up."  

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

Surely JSRAW has not denied your version of possible events, yet, either..  because even JSRAW would not mind picking up a few more lil fiends in the 4 digits, so you got that going for you too, BTC_ISTANBUL.  

[HairyMaclairy]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I agree.  This bull trap might run all the way to $300k.  A lot of bitcoin bulls might get caught and be forced to sell part of their stack well above $100k.

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

I agree.  This bull trap might run all the way to $300k.  A lot of bitcoin bulls might get caught and be forced to sell part of their stack well above $100k.

Oh gosh, and now you got the hairy_beary with you too.

[Searing]

Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best time to buy in and get exposure to Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1156968533462413313?s=21

I wonder if difficulty will ever start to just somewhat settle especially with node size getting harder and harder to shrink.

We should see a dump in some BTC difficulty soon. There was a lot of ASIC makers who made 50/50 handshake deals with hydro utils in China because of excessive rain

and excess electric. you let us run our outdated or stuff we can't sell for free and we will split the coin with the hydro power you bleed off.

I should google and see if China this summer has started to dry up yet.

If/when it does, I'd 'guess' you will see a drop of 20% or some such.

But people being people it likely will not matter much to BTC difficulty and will pop right back up again, even if my guess is right.

Betting on Moon seems to be the crypto pastime, with ASIC miners as the 'chips'

Brad

[jbreher]

I wonder if you, jbreher, might still be playing with much tighter BTC laddering ranges than me, perhaps?  Maybe even you have spread your increments out a bit larger as compared to what you had been doing in early 2018, no?   

I scale in rough increments to make the percentage similar. Not exact percentage, as I place a premium of not having to put any thought into placing counter-orders. Round numbers makes that easier.

I think about the same as then. I'd need to dig into records to answer with any precision.

[Biodom]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

We should see a dump in some BTC difficulty soon.

If/when it does, I'd 'guess' you will see a drop of 20% or some such.

IMHO, it is not going to happen since Bitmain is selling anything they can lay their hands on.

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

Haahahahahahaha

"Bored", as in you are still waiting for sub $8,500?  We were really close to $9k on a couple of occasions, but you feel good man in regard to waiting for sub $8,500-ish.

Yeah, I don't know, whether the price is going below $9k or not.  Surely, I would not want to be waiting...for that, and we already know that BTC sometimes has a tendency to do what we don't necessarily expect but then also we could be kind of caught in a consolidation that maybe does not satisfy many people.. and just bring boredom from some.

Part of the reason that I am not bored is because I recall just a few short months ago, we had a price that was largely staying below $4k for several months, and it seems almost equally plausible to me that we could have gotten stuck in that price area for another 6 months or so, and that surely would have been frustrating (if not boring).  Being in a BTC price range that is largely bouncing between $9k and $11k remains very interesting to me, in part because I had thought that a sub $4k BTC price was going to be an additional means to continue to purge shit coins, but it seems that some of the purging could still be taking place, but in a bit of a different manner than had been expected... so is this current price action a kind of way to continue to purge shitcoins?  Could be?  could be?  Boring?  

I'm not quite feeling it, even if you, Biodom, have some WO company, in your asserted boredom, and maybe for different reason than you, but I remain not part of that boredom crowd.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1156934579040559104

We are always complaining about the price ..., we are like children, there is no reason to complain, we are doing well.

Good morning, WO,s

[Biodom]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).

In btc right now is a bit too many unknown unknowns to simply stack satoshis, IMHO, but if it goes parabolic right here, I would be among those who simply rejoice.

[JayJuanGee]

What I believe is we are experiencing a bull trap.The ''new'' money is lacking.The china-usa trade war issue is somehow positive for BTC and interest rate cut may draw interest of some big multi million whales to crypto investment however taxation and risk aversion will keep the actions as reactions and bull traps.

Is that your face-saving alias account: jonoiv?  Biodom?  Amateur? Lambie?

nope.

Plus, I am getting progressively bored with the price action here.
Starting to seek some excitement on the stock market.
It's going to get wild toward the fall, I think.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?

You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).

In btc right now is a bit too many unknown unknowns to simply stack satoshis, IMHO, but if it goes parabolic right here, I would be among those who simply rejoice.

I guess that I am just adverse (and maybe even a bit hostile) to the contemplation of complicated instruments in order to play around with the market, especially if it might not be necessary to use complicated instruments.

Maybe bitcoin has spoiled me?  We can get fucking BIG ASS returns in bitcoin without any leverage and without any special trading instruments, so that is part of the reason that bitcoin remains so god damned exciting as an asset class that is available to normal people.  The asymmetric bet is there and the asymmetric bet is continuing to pay off on a regular basis.  We are in the midst of it, and I have some difficulties appreciating how that could be boring.

I mean.. I kind of downplay the time before I got in (which would have been before 2013), so yeah in 2014 I was largely establishing my BTC position and in 2015, the BTC price was relatively stagnant during that time, but fuck, we got ourselves a 78x price increase from that floating 2015 base price of $250-ish, and yeah we had an 85% correction in 2018 down to $3,122, but still we would have still been at least 12x up from our $250 starting price in 2015.... jesus.. what is not exciting about those kinds of returns, and even that the exponential grown price cycle seems to be repeating, and sometime after breaking above $4,200 on April 1, 2019 it was confirmed that we had returned to this particular bull market that we are now in.

So fucking what that we had around a 33% price correction from the $13,880 top to $9k, we still remain in god dammed good BTC prices and there seems to be a continued amount of upwards BTC price pressures surrounding $10k.. and even decently above $10k as I type....

Gotta be excited.. whether we go down or up from here, there continues to be great upwards BTC prices..

fuck the stock market and the other boring price performers.  If you want to talk about boring, refer yourself to traditional markets including fiat and the stock market.  That is boring.. especially compared with BTC.

We have action right where we are at with bitcoin, and almost no leverage is needed in order to make a killing in BTC (compared with traditional markets).  We have people, including amateurs (not that troll named amateur) like my mom who makes a killing too based on relatively small investments.. and the BT  price continues to go up for common people to be able to get in and you do NOT need any kind of broker, either.. just buy, HODL accumulate... BTC,  buy on dips... and if your timeline is decently long you are likely going to profit stupendously, and furthermore, sometimes if you get in at the right time, you don't even need much of a very long timeline in order to profit stupendously...

Did I say that no leverage was needed?  

And no special investing strategies or tools are needed beyond buying BTC on dips and dollar cost averaging, hodl and accumulate.  what else is needed in order to be not bored...  

This could not be boring, unless you are waiting for a kind of result that is not happening for you... such as waiting for down, when we are in a bull market..

There continues to be so much bullish news in bitcoin, so I can hardly contain my selfie!!!!!



I   am..................

GETTING.........


Wait.......


Wait.......


Wait.......




CCCITTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait.......

WWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



O.k.. now I feel better.

O.k Now I know gembitz's secret.

 

[jojo69]

whoa

[rdbase]

Wonder what the halving will do to this next year.

It will just increase the price of course.