Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
I want to be optimistic, but this is the way bear market grinds you.

Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july 2019). In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.

I doubt anyone here is taking anything for granted in terms of being in a bull market rather than being in a bear market, especially if we are looking at a question regarding a transition to a bear market might be happening at some point.

I don't know where you get the ridiculous framing of spikes up being indicative of a bear market rather than a bull market.

And you are also characterizing the rise from April 1 to end of June 2019 from about $4,200 to $13,800 as a kind of fake out?

Wow.. get a grip.

Even though much of that 3.5x price rise did end up correcting back, the 3.5x price rise largely confirmed that our then bear market was over.. .. at least by the time we got into the supra $6ks and of course beyond that too... as you acknowledge.

Sometimes I wonder which one of you bitcoin naysayers and hopeners for downity are worse?

You come up with some pretty crazy ass twists, and surely for some reason wanting to get us to presume that we are in a bear market rather than a bull market.. even though when at best you probably can ONLY proclaim that we may well be teetering between the two.. and we need more data to figure out where we are at... ..even if you might have your own high level of confidence that has good chances of not playing out too well, especially if you start to become too smug and presumptuous about it.

Do you want to throw some numbers out there?  Are we going below $33k?  how about $28.6k?  what are the odds of each?  even getting to $28.6k would mean getting below $30k.. is there potentially a 50/50 odds bet there?  You taking the under?

These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one?

Chill the F out guys, the Model I posted is the one Toxic2040 posted the same day. You didn't told him that these models looks bullshit?
I don't see any replies to him the way you said to me? I guess it's just the mentality of yours that everything ImThour post is bullshit.

On the other hand, I don't care what you guys think. I can post whatever I want to post, press that Ignore if you can't take my bullshit.
Stop cornering me or hating me for sharing something someone else already did without getting any hatred. Sick mentality people.

always good to take a different look at things   anyway..you guys is boring tonight...wake me if somebody says something interesting  

Yes... for some strange reason.. we (the royal) like ToxicMoxic better than uie poo-ie and find his assertions to be more credible, even if he makes bearish ones.  I don't recall ToxicMoxic assigning high probabilities to sub $20k prices in recent times... Did I miss something?

I also don't recall ToxicMoxic making any kind of vague-ass assertion about bitcoin funds being locked.. that kind of implied the bitcoin chain might have been locked by the Canadian government without giving some description of the presence of third parties and police coercion being involved.  Maybe it is just me recognizing such differences? 

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[ImThour]

I don't recall ToxicMoxic assigning high probabilities to sub $20k prices in recent times... Did I miss something?

Just look the post above, you don't even recall anything cause you getting old mate.
The DPC model literally calls $18k the bottom for 2022, the model he posted.

I also don't recall ToxicMoxic making any kind of vague-ass assertion about bitcoin funds being locked.. that kind of implied the bitcoin chain might have been locked by the Canadian government without giving some description of the presence of third parties and police coercion being involved.  Maybe it is just me recognizing such differences?  

So I made up that news, that's what you are saying? Great.

And now STFU.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jgmnpd/the-freedom-convoy-bitcoin-donations-have-been-frozen-and-seized

[cAPSLOCK]

Where is @cAPSLOCK?
Related?
#Fun



After a while,



@Elon. BTC doesn't give you f**k anymore.

I am currently in a yurt in the Appalachian mountains.

True story.

[JayJuanGee]

Mr JJG

Your reply to Toxic on posting the same model


Your reply to me posting the same model


I don't see no "bullshit", "retard", "DOWNity hopenium", "nonsense models", "down before up" words in the reply to Toxic?
Such hypocrisy huh?

Some of us must be "out to get you," no?

I don't recall ToxicMoxic assigning high probabilities to sub $20k prices in recent times... Did I miss something?

Just look the post above, you don't even recall anything cause you getting old mate.

I also don't recall ToxicMoxic making any kind of vague-ass assertion about bitcoin funds being locked.. that kind of implied the bitcoin chain might have been locked by the Canadian government without giving some description of the presence of third parties and police coercion being involved.  Maybe it is just me recognizing such differences?  

So I made up that news, that's what you are saying? Great.

And now STFU.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jgmnpd/the-freedom-convoy-bitcoin-donations-have-been-frozen-and-seized

All I see is that you seem to be getting a wee bit emotional, no? 

My earlier posts speak for themselves, and if you have something that you feel that you need to clarify, then go ahead.. No one is stopping you.

[ImThour]

Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.

So his reason to say negative things to me on is because I have been posting Bearish things earlier.
Doesn't that shows my stand on something which I believe is going to happen?

People don't even understand the word "Opinion".
The discrimination is surreal and affects my mental health.

This place is not OPEN for discussion, this place is just another thread where they want to hear only HOPIUM news for BTC.
Sick.

[ImThour]

People are supporting you because you are on this website from years, you have been through many different phases, you have seen the growth of BTC but you fail to realize, the way you are discriminating against me isn't welcoming. Your level of toxicity towards me is going above my head mate. Such discrimination and people are ignoring it or supporting it, I fail to understand. In the end, I am a human being with different opinion than yours. No need to be a fucking troll.

Some of us must be "out to get you," no?

All I see is that you seem to be getting a wee bit emotional, no?  

My earlier posts speak for themselves, and if you have something that you feel that you need to clarify, then go ahead.. No one is stopping you.

[cAPSLOCK]

Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.

So his reason to say negative things to me on is because I have been posting Bearish things earlier.
Doesn't that shows my stand on something which I believe is going to happen?

People don't even understand the word "Opinion".
The discrimination is surreal and affects my mental health.

This place is not OPEN for discussion, this place is just another thread where they want to hear only HOPIUM news for BTC.
Sick.

I believe you are partially correct.  You have posted a wide range of things. Some very bearish. Any models predicting a low UNDER the last cycle top will be pushed back on.

But you're right. This place is full of irrational bulls.  I may be the worst.

You are being picked on a lot. Sometimes for valid reasons. Sometimes not. But I think overall a little much.

[Toxic2040]

raise the sword of freedom...with moar models




---------

Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always the indication of the bear, not a bull.

I want to be optimistic, but this is a way bear grinds you.
Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july).
In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.

Hate to break it to you...we are in a bear market...or will be...of the likes this generation has never seen. Its hard to predict what the ramifications the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia will bring but shockwaves are already being felt.
 
Not only in fiat and oil but in commodities as well...and also in a logistics train already rattled by the pandemic. I dont think its going to be great for legacy markets...in fact tomorrow I would be surprised if rates do not go up..that will affect things as we move into Q2 and onward.
Of course...printing will continue so who really knows other than the US gubermint is probably not going to run out of dollar bills anytime soon.

I said it before and I'll say it again...things might get rough. I think bitcoin is at a point where the spotlight is on it..or will be and it might need to decide if it really is its own unique store of value and property or if its going to retract like I think most other markets could over the next several weeks and months. Now dont take this as all doom and gloom....price could very well plow sideways...it could drop...it could go up...just like it always has. Thats the thing about bitcoin..it really is a free market..people buy, sell and trade it for what they think its worth. I just dont see how it could be less valuble now that it was before this crisis....how the need for something that you can say 'No!' You can not have that without my consent is less. To me..the need has never been greater for something outside the cesspool of politics. What ever happens with legacy markets, things are not going to get 'easier' for bitcoin..they will get harder as more nation states try to get their claws into it just like they do everything else.

So we will see which way it blows....set your safety lines if you feel the need and then heel her hard over and chase the wind.

I am going to continue to stack sats.

carry on

[Biodom]

Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.

So his reason to say negative things to me on is because I have been posting Bearish things earlier.
Doesn't that shows my stand on something which I believe is going to happen?

People don't even understand the word "Opinion".
The discrimination is surreal and affects my mental health.

This place is not OPEN for discussion, this place is just another thread where they want to hear only HOPIUM news for BTC.
Sick.

I believe you are partially correct.  You have posted a wide range of things. Some very bearish. Any models predicting a low UNDER the last cycle top will be pushed back on.

But you're right. This place is full of irrational bulls.  I may be the worst.

You are being picked on a lot. Sometimes for valid reasons. Sometimes not. But I think overall a little much.

some people (like @jjg) always fly off the handle, harassing anyone with ANY opinion that is different from hers/his/its.
then, they try to put their notion of YOUR opinion into your mouth.

[Biodom]

@jjg..i am still of the opinion of the $30-60K band.
Buy close to the bottom, sell (or sell calls) close to the top of this range (if you are a trader).
I am not trading bitcoin, though.

[Biodom]

Hate to break it to you...we are in a bear market...or will be...of the likes this generation has never seen.

Can the 'system' take it?
We are already about 10-11% down, but some fluffy techs are already down more than 50% and some large techs-20-40%.
If stock market goes down another 30% or more, combined with high actual inflation and no interest on savings, it would be catastrophic, imho.
How are we going to get out of that possible predicament? I have no idea.
Of course, bitcoin is my core remediation strategy, but even that could be negated (or at least it is possible).

[ImThour]

This person called JJG wants me to post facts in a board called Speculation.

source? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

What does Speculation means? the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
Want source for this too? Take it - https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=speculation+meaning

Also, just a quick math, there are 1020 Legendary members on this platform, stop acting like you are the only one.
And Want source for this info too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist;sa=search;search=Legendary;fields=group;start=0

I am done with this man/woman/whatever. In the beginning, I thought I am wrong, but now I can clearly see discrimination.

[JayJuanGee]

People are supporting you because you are on this website from years, you have been through many different phases, you have seen the growth of BTC but you fail to realize, the way you are discriminating against me isn't welcoming. Your level of toxicity towards me is going above my head mate. Such discrimination and people are ignoring it or supporting it, I fail to understand. In the end, I am a human being with different opinion than yours. No need to be a fucking troll.

Some of us must be "out to get you," no?

All I see is that you seem to be getting a wee bit emotional, no?  

My earlier posts speak for themselves, and if you have something that you feel that you need to clarify, then go ahead.. No one is stopping you.

Several times I have been giving you the benefit of the doubt.. so I am not sure what else I can do.  I am not going to go back and change my mind about anything that I already posted, so if you have something meaningful to say, then go ahead and say it... no problem.  It would be nice to see improvements in some of your posts, but if that is the best that you got, then so be it.  Let's play it by ear.

By the way, many folks (not just yours truly) have questioned whether you might be a troll or a shill and that you yourself could not in reality believe some of the kinds of bullshit that you have been posting.. but hey, if your post quality and backing up of it improve, then no problem. It's not that any of us (including yours truly) need to agree with your substantive predictions or your news sharing or whatever it is that you are sharing - and if some of your posts raise red flags, then what do you expect members here to do?  just give you a pass?  especially when you have already shown quite a few questionable posts...

I don't have any problem either giving you another chance or attempting to read your posts with a fresh eye.. even though so far I am not really seeing anything.. so let's see.. you post what you want.. like you said.  You have the right to post whatever you like.. so no problem.  Members will respond or not.. it is up to each member whether to respond or not.. or even to read your posts or to ignore you or not.  Also, whether your posts improve or not from my perspective, it should not matter, and most of your posts are readable.. even though I have frequently been drawn to aspects that I consider to be misleading.. and for sure not everyone is going to agree with me, either.  I don't necessarily expect anyone to agree with me, especially if it might get down to impressions that one member might have on another, too... so I suppose in that regard, each of us come to our differing and variations of assessments.. and some people may well just ignore you (or ignore me) so it is not like everyone reads all (or any) of the posts that you might believe to be going against your abilities to supposedly freely express yourself.. whether any of us agree with your substance, quality or your ways of expressing yourself may not matter. but we also have rights to assert whether or not we agree with your posts, and why or why not or just express our reactions to your posts however we like, no?

Hate to break it to you...we are in a bear market...or will be...of the likes this generation has never seen. Its hard to predict what the ramifications the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia will bring but shockwaves are already being felt.

That's it Mr. ToxicMoxic.    

No more Mr. nice guy with you.

You are going to see a wrath thrown upon ur lil selfie and batman slappenings beyond your abilities to tolerate.

That'sall.

-00001 WO merit for uie poo-ie.

Also not going to be the first time that you were wrong with your overly-bearish transition.. hahahahahaha

@jjg..i am still of the opinion of the $30-60K band.
Buy close to the bottom, sell (or sell calls) close to the top of this range (if you are a trader).
I am not trading bitcoin, though.

Kind of broad.. but sure.. fair enough..... similar to what Philipma was doing, and I already responded to that idea...  

[ImThour]

Several times I have been giving you the benefit of the doubt.. so I am not sure what else I can do.  I am not going to go back and change my mind about anything that I already posted, so if you have something meaningful to say, then go ahead and say it... no problem.  It would be nice to see improvements in some of your posts, but if that is the best that you got, then so be it.  Let's play it by ear.

By the way, many folks consider that you are likely a troll or a shill and that you yourself could not in reality believe some of the kinds of bullshit that you have been posting.. but hey, if your post quality and backing up of it improve, then no problem. It's not that any of us (including yours truly) need to agree with your substantive predictions or your news sharing or whatever it is that you are sharing - and if some of your posts raise red flags, then what do you expect members here to do?  just give you a pass?  especially when you have already shown quite a few questionable posts...

I don't have any problem either giving you another chance or attempting to read your posts with a fresh eye.. even though so far I am not really seeing anything.. so let's see.. you post what you want.. like you said.  You have the right to post whatever you like.. so no problem.  Members will respond or not.. it is up to each member whether to respond or not.. or even to read your posts or to ignore you or not.

Here are some of the posts which can be determined under Bullish sentiments.

1. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59511121#msg59511121
2. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59448578#msg59448578
3. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59248362#msg59248362
4. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59160889#msg59160889
5. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5383940.msg59133230#msg59133230
6. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59101397#msg59101397
7. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59030200#msg59030200
8. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58982080#msg58982080
and many more.

None of them has a single reply from you.

And you have commented on every bearish post I have made.

What does that shows? Huh.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

Just found this while searching around, we Indeed made an ATH on 8th Nov.

$50k in a day.
$55k before 15th Sept.
ATH before 11th Nov.

How I know? I am from future.

[JayJuanGee]

Several times I have been giving you the benefit of the doubt.. so I am not sure what else I can do.  I am not going to go back and change my mind about anything that I already posted, so if you have something meaningful to say, then go ahead and say it... no problem.  It would be nice to see improvements in some of your posts, but if that is the best that you got, then so be it.  Let's play it by ear.

By the way, many folks consider that you are likely a troll or a shill and that you yourself could not in reality believe some of the kinds of bullshit that you have been posting.. but hey, if your post quality and backing up of it improve, then no problem. It's not that any of us (including yours truly) need to agree with your substantive predictions or your news sharing or whatever it is that you are sharing - and if some of your posts raise red flags, then what do you expect members here to do?  just give you a pass?  especially when you have already shown quite a few questionable posts...

I don't have any problem either giving you another chance or attempting to read your posts with a fresh eye.. even though so far I am not really seeing anything.. so let's see.. you post what you want.. like you said.  You have the right to post whatever you like.. so no problem.  Members will respond or not.. it is up to each member whether to respond or not.. or even to read your posts or to ignore you or not.

Here are some of the posts which can be determined under Bullish sentiments.

1. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59511121#msg59511121
2. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59448578#msg59448578
3. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59248362#msg59248362
4. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59160889#msg59160889
5. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5383940.msg59133230#msg59133230
6. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59101397#msg59101397
7. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59030200#msg59030200
8. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58982080#msg58982080
and many more.

None of them has a single reply from you.

And you have commented on every bearish post I have made.

What does that shows? Huh.

Go figure.

It appears that upon the interwebs, there are peeps (including yours truly) who may well be bias against bearish posts.

How did that happen?

Who would've thunk?


Solution:

ImThour: stop posting bearish posts.

#that'sall

-1 WO merit for you for even thinking about posting bearish posts.

[Toxic2040]

Can the 'system' take it?
We are already about 10-11% down, but some fluffy techs are already down more than 50% and some large techs-20-40%.
If stock market goes down another 30% or more, combined with high actual inflation and no interest on savings, it would be catastrophic, imho.
How we are going to get out of that possible predicament? I have no idea.
Of course, bitcoin is my core remediation strategy, but even that could be negated (or at least it is possible).

unsure


----------------

That's it Mr. ToxicMoxic.     

No more Mr. nice guy with you.

You are going to see a wrath thrown upon ur lil selfie and batman slappenings beyond your abilities to tolerate.

That'sall.

-00001 WO merit for uie poo-ie.

Also not going to be the first time that you were wrong with your overly-bearish transition.. hahahahahaha

Havent we already covered this?  there is no minusing someones merit stash...once one has a merit there are no sanctions possible


where did you get the idea that im bearish?  that I am bearish on legacy markets?  indeed I am...I am however still incredibly bullish on bitcoin..always will be ...the short ups and downs dont bother me as the asymmetrical bet is still on


now...    fuck off      


--------

[ImThour]

Solution:
ImThour: stop posting bearish posts.

Oh yea, want me to become just another Bitcoin Twitter User who keeps on posting hopium to get more followers, sorry, I can't.

Here is someone whom you can follow and should avoid looking at posts on WO.

https://twitter.com/TheMoonCarl/status/1501894284110356484

[shahzadafzal]

This person called JJG wants me to post facts in a board called Speculation.

source? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

What does Speculation means? the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
Want source for this too? Take it - https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=speculation+meaning

Also, just a quick math, there are 1020 Legendary members on this platform, stop acting like you are the only one.
And Want source for this info too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist;sa=search;search=Legendary;fields=group;start=0

I am done with this man/woman/whatever. In the beginning, I thought I am wrong, but now I can clearly see discrimination.

Hey hey hey....  take it easy bro don't chew it, spit it out on the floor...

Why don't you try this option?





You dare to give your opinion on "INTERNET" and did not expecting this? How dare you?