Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

Putin speaks to the nation.

https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762?cxt=HHwWhICzsYX05d8pAAAA

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[JayJuanGee]

3D thoughts

stronghands

I don't like greasy goose poop!!!

(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)

How could you be FOMOing into BTC price dips?  You are just two months short of your one-year anniversary in these here parts.

In my thinking, the more that you grapple with a several BTC price moves over many months while you are attempting to establish and to follow some kind of BTC accumulation system, then the more that you should have some structure to your buys.. even if you are trying to be strategic in terms of buying on dips.

If the BTC price were to go down to $25k, would you have any dry powder left to buy?  How about down to $20k.. yet that would be an extreme that many folks here seem to consider to be quite low currently... but not impossible?

Last May 2021-ish there were so many guys who ran out of dry powder by the time the BTC price got down to $50k-ish.. and for sure that would not have felt very good... saw a lot of that pain back then..  - even though we have had quite a few opportunities to make up for the lack of dry powder at earlier times, so long as some kind of cashflow is coming in.. so surely purchases of BTC could have already been made quite a bit in the lower, mid and upper $30ks... whether we will be going back down there or not...   What are the odds?

Surely another cohort of BTC bullish folks were damaged when we have not had any price above $69k since November 9 - and surely would have been silly to believe that as guaranteed, even if it did seem to have decently high odds to go higher.. I do kind of regret anyone who might have been betting against BTC since November to have been getting rewarded for such bets, but none of us can control which bitcoiners - the bears or the bulls or the innocent get beaten up along the way.

One thing would be to have some kinds of ideas how much of a budget that you would have to buy on dips, if such dips happen right now, and another thing would be having such potentially severe dips play out for several months... and of course, your asserted angle that you are FOMO buying BTC means that you may well feel that you have been already adequately and sufficiently prepared for UP _ even if the UP has not really been happening as much as many of have been hoping.. especially since about November-ish.. that is already more than 4 months..

Have we NOT suffered enough?  

By the way, Copetech, any bitcoiner who had actually accomplished much of his/her BTC accumulation prior to September 2020 would be hard-pressed to be asserting too much suffering - relatively speaking.... even though there might have been some traders who ended up screwing up that 7x price spurt that happens to currently be bouncing between mostly 3.5x and 4.5x... I understand that was not your situation, but it seems that each class of bitcoiners will end up getting their day in which they can feel like they are able to breath with a decent price cushion... and for sure any bitcoiner accumulating coins between late 2018 and late 2020.. would have been likely to have accumulated such coins on the average of about $8k or lower.... even if mistakes were made.. and surely those averaging $10k had made more mistakes in their BTC accumulation costs, but still doing well... not always easy to time buying the dip, exactly... and surely there might have been some guys who had achieved BTC buys averaging less than $5k or $6k during that late 2018 to late 2020 period, but not easy not easy.. and in that regard sometimes, just regular ongoing buying of BTC will still allow for being in a position to have decently strong advantages (especially compared with the nocoiners (surely many of them are unwittingly pre-coiners), the bitcoin naysayers, or the fence sitters) because of BTC's ongoing asymmetric bet to the UPside.

[jojo69]

both are and will always be a con.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

likely sold his NFT to himself.  It seems to be a popular way to say "I do not own this address".  You then buy stuff overseas with it, like a beach house in Haiti Dominican Republic.
edit: plus claim loss on taxes ?  So evade taxes AND fraud taxman ?  wow thats savage

I think he legitimately listed it in a marketplace and there was a separate TX that bought it (don't take my word for it, I know jack shit about NFTs) so if that's the case, the attempt to sell to himself would be extremely risky - there would have been a risk that someone would snipe it even if he broadcast both TX at the same time.

[Copetech]

3D thoughts

stronghands

I don't like greasy goose poop!!!

(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)

Snippity-snip-snip

Buying my weekly DCA religiously, and still in the green! (Current Cost Average $31,756, don't ask, you don't wanna talk about it) But I freely admit, it's accumilating too slow!!! At this rate I may never reach 1 whole coin! So everytime we dippedy-do down below  $39k there I am bruising my dirty knees saying, "Please Baby, the Corn's so cheap!?! I don't have to eat dinner tonight, right???" Of course, being the smart woman she is, she says no as much as she says yes... bet then goes and blows the money on senseless things like dental appointments and electric bills!!! Oh well, guess there's worse things to fight about.

[Copetech]

Double posted for some reason so I guess I'll ramble on...

Finally did my 2021 taxes this week! Been procrastinating like hell, because I was afraid Uncle Sammy was gonna bend me over and rip me raw with no KY to C me through...
Turns out, by FIFO accounting, my random method of buying high selling low and then buying back low to sell back barely profiting worked out nicely! $15k+ of total 2021 transactions coming in at a $270 loss! (Woohoo! Still holding more than I put in but Uncle Sam will have to wait for his cut!)

[goldkingcoiner]

Putin speaks to the nation.

https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762?cxt=HHwWhICzsYX05d8pAAAA

Nice touch at the end, hinting at a future "final solution" for the "traitors". The upcoming Steven Spielberg movie is going to be insane. Igor's List.

[cAPSLOCK]

Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch?  (Not saying we Will... But if we do...)

I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid.

But it isn't.  Yet.

I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time.

But it simply is not yet.  If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that.

We may get to see!    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

3D thoughts

stronghands

I don't like greasy goose poop!!!

(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)

Snippity-snip-snip

Buying my weekly DCA religiously, and still in the green! (Current Cost Average $31,756, don't ask, you don't wanna talk about it)

I tried to do a quick look at the DCA website to attempt to figure out what your average cost per BTC would have been with a strict DCA strategy, and I find it a bit confusing... even though it does show that a strict DCA'ing would be in 20% profits.. but the numbers still do not seem to add up - something like $1k per week would put you at 0.858 BTC with $42k invested...  ..we can still use it as a ballpark, even though the website is showing the wrong current BTC price (and it has done that many times before, too).

Ultimately, I don't have any problem if you believe that you can attempt to employ more sophisticated strategies to attempt to beat a strict DCA strategy - nothing wrong with that... My main problem comes when guys try to suggest that whatever they are doing might be replicable to consistently beat a strict DCA strategy.. and frequently that is not the case.. frequently there is some special techniques or even luck involved that normies might not easily be able to deploy without increasing their odds of putting themselves in a worse situation.

But I freely admit, it's accumilating too slow!!! At this rate I may never reach 1 whole coin!

 Of course you are in the best position to know your particulars and whether you are being sufficiently aggressive or maybe just too anxious.  Wealth accumulation can take a whole long time - and even if you are not able to ever get up to 1 bitcoin, that still may well put you ahead of your peers..

For sure, when I came into bitcoin, I set myself a kind of ambitious accumulation target, but I was also starting out with more than 20 years of prior investment portfolio accumulation.. so that causes a quite different set of circumstances.. and I suppose my main point is that initially I thought that I might not ever reach my goal.. and I did end up reaching such goal in about 6-8 months.. mostly due to the BTC's price dropping.. but even my reaching the goal did not solve any profitability issues, because after I reached my goal, the BTC price kept dropping.. so I ended up getting way beyond my initial goal, and having to set new ones... and of course, the longer that you are in, it seems that you might not be playing around with large portions of your stash.. even though I do know that opinions vary, so some long time bitcoiners do play around with decently large portions of their stash... but not as many who really are concerned about long term investing that is 4-10 years or even longer than 10 years which would not be unusual for someone who is earlier in his/her investment career.

So everytime we dippedy-do down below  $39k there I am bruising my dirty knees saying, "Please Baby, the Corn's so cheap!?! I don't have to eat dinner tonight, right???" Of course, being the smart woman she is, she says no as much as she says yes... bet then goes and blows the money on senseless things like dental appointments and electric bills!!! Oh well, guess there's worse things to fight about.

Balancing of the budget is a great thing... Surely you know that sometimes you can take some chances, but also there are needs to have back up plans too.. and the mere fact that you have a lower $30ks balance and you are in profits, you seem to be in a better position than I was 1 year after I had gotten into bitcoin, and even took me around 2.5 years to start to feel that I was in break even and low profits.. .. and of course, things did get better from there.. referring to late 2016 and thereafter.

You probably already know the saying about the need to go through a whole cycle.. but then again, questions about "what is a cycle" have been rearing their ugly heads in recent times, too... I would imagine that you should be in a good position in less than 3 years, and whether or not you need a whole coin might not really matter so much as jmust having an investment level that is suitable and workable for you.... We still are in the place where a 0.21 BTC initial bitcoin investment target would not necessarily be a bad thing for any bitcoin newbies.. and you realize too that there are so many people who are still not in bitcoin, so I would imagine 3-4 years from now, realistic newbie entry-level accumulation targets might have to add a zero onto that and maybe shoot for 0.021 BTC or 2.1 million sats.  Sure... speculation.. and if you do not screw up then you should be multiples higher than those entry levels.. and also many of us look back and we see that we would not have been able to accumulate the number of coins that we currently have under almost any circumstances - absent winning the lottery or some lame unlikely event like that.... for sure, whole coiners are already rare and likely to become even more rare... especially for normies.... or is the word plebs?

Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch?  (Not saying we Will... But if we do...)

I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid.

But it isn't.  Yet.

I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time.

But it simply is not yet.  If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that.

We may get to see!    

A little hopium never killed no one, right?

 

[Biodom]

Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch?  (Not saying we Will... But if we do...)

I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid.

But it isn't.  Yet.

I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time.

But it simply is not yet.  If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that.

We may get to see!    

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

[Uang_kartal]

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

I agree, bro, maybe more than 4 years in the future will approach that price, past $70000/unit, and there should be no worries for me to take the price that is rising. What @cAPSLOCK said also made people ask questions ask, it's not too bad and not too low from the years before bitcoin/cryptocurency soared so worshiped. I believe the owner of the blockchain (btc) will have a surprise for the survival of the community, I'm sure it will be fine, this hypothesis makes sense bro

[JayJuanGee]

3D thoughts

stronghands

I don't like greasy goose poop!!!

(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)

How could you be FOMOing into BTC price dips?  You are just two months short of your one-year anniversary in these here parts.

In my thinking, the more that you grapple with a several BTC price moves over many months while you are attempting to establish and to follow some kind of BTC accumulation system, then the more that you should have some structure to your buys.. even if you are trying to be strategic in terms of buying on dips.

If the BTC price were to go down to $25k, would you have any dry powder left to buy?  How about down to $20k.. yet that would be an extreme that many folks here seem to consider to be quite low currently... but not impossible?

Hi JJG,

I agree with you!  And when we look at the 17-Day time frame using Phoenix Ascending and Bad Ass B-Bands indicators, we see we still have quite a bit or work to do with the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in order to get our freak on with another bull run again.

Right now, the Blue LSMA appears it may continue falling even lower than level 30.  The issue with that is we need the Blue LSMA to rise above Level 30 to have greater odds of the price action rising up from the B-Band Basis to the area of the white/aqua UPPER B-Bands. We also need the Red RSI to run up to or near Level 50 so that the price action has increased odds of REMAINING somewhere pretty close to the B-Band Basis; which can be seen to the left in history. The Red RSI is currently at Level 29 and has quite a bit of work to do in order for us to get up to Level 50 to increase the odds of the price at least holding around the B-Band Basis.

There's a chance we might fall further in similar fashion to what we saw late November/early December of 2014 (identified with an Aqua Vertical Dashed Time Line at "20-Nov-14").  Meaning, it's possible we might see the Present Day Green RSI turn back down in similar fashion to the Green RSI turning back down in 2014.  Possibly the next candle.  However, the next 17-Day candle begins approximately 9-Days and 21-hours from now.

This is better understood if "seen" rather than simply reading it.  Even better if explained in a video.  I cannot post images.  I don't know why.  It's as if I'm banned from posting images on here now.  At least you have a link to the image.

Here's the link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KWYUfkUT/

Of course, I rely less on the various technical analysis lines.. and largely we have already had a couple of more than 50% corrections this year.. and our blow off top might be described 7x at best.. so in some sense, it seems to me that buy support would have had opportunities to catch up to current prices.. and even a dip down to $20k I would suggest as having 10% or lower odds.. and of course the odds of dipping below $30k would be quite a bit higher.. maybe even in the 50% arena.

There are various ongoing developments in bitcoin that may well cause scenarios like 2014 to be way less likely to play out.. I mean we were stuck at $400 for a while and then get stuck in the mid to lower $200s for almost the whole of 2015.. similarly when people suggest that we could get something like 2018 where we dipped from $6k to $3k.. but then we were only in the $3ks for about 4 months.. until that April to June 2019 BTC price surge (temporary as it was, it ended our bearslump quite decisively).

So currently going down to any such lower price and then being able to stay there would likely take some pretty extreme circumstances.. and probably there would be some need to get to lower $30ks first and to potentially challenge buy supprt in the lower $30ks.. and there seems to be trouble getting down there.. at least so far....

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

Let me see if I understand what you are saying in the above bolded part.

You are suggesting that currently we have around 100 million bitcoin users, and in the next 4-5 years we are largely going to 10x our number of users.. which of course has inevitable UPpity pressures on the BTC price, right?  I would also suggest if you assess our current number of bitcoiners as 100 million, it seems that a lot of those current 100 million are likely quite under-invested in bitcoin, and so even with the first 100 million (if that is about the right number), there still remains quite a bit of room for growth within those already existing bitcoin users.

Regarding whether the stock to flow model is "on-track" of course there is ongoing plotting of the data.. and surely some folks will find such model useful and others will not, and I really doubt that the extent to which the model is valid, useful or informative regarding likely BTC direction would be subject to a popularity contest - even though you likely already realize that I am not too patient with guys who seem to completely ignore such model and spin their own models that seems to be based on loose data at best and.. which seem to be like throwing darts at a board.

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

I agree, bro, maybe more than 4 years in the future will approach that price, past $70000/unit, and there should be no worries for me to take the price that is rising.

$70k is noise..  For the most part, we have already been there twice.

What @cAPSLOCK said also made people ask questions ask, it's not too bad and not too low from the years before bitcoin/cryptocurency soared so worshiped. I believe the owner of the blockchain (btc) will have a surprise for the survival of the community, I'm sure it will be fine, this hypothesis makes sense bro

You might be phrasing matters weirdly based on English as a second language or using a translator (google translator?)  but your describing the "owner of the blockchain/bitcoin" is a weird framework - especially since bitcoin seems to be amongst the least owned of systems.. and bitcoin's lack of ownership seems to be its appeal... and I am not sure why you want to use the word bitcoin and blockchain in the same sentence.. there is no need to talk about blockchain at all, unless you are wanting to suggest that there are some other systems that matter, besides bitcoin.. are you referring to that, or you just did not feel comfortable with ONLY using the word bitcoin when you were referring to bitcoin, right?  In other words, the concept of blockchain is kind of meaningless because it leads into ambiguity and maybe even causes questions about whether you are talking about bitcoin or something else?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

3 Hours Passed and No post in the WO Thread 

Surprising. What's happening, guys?
I know the sphere becomes silent before the Storm.

[Arriemoller]

[Arriemoller]

3 Hours Passed and No post in the WO Thread 

Surprising. What's happening, guys?
I know the sphere becomes silent before the Storm.

America is still sleeping and Europe is just waking up, it's just 08:30 where I live, and Asia isn't even posting in this thread.